The Fabulous Sports Blog

NFL Picks, Pats, and Pardons (Week 17)

2012-01-01T07:12:00.003-06:00

Last Week: 8-8
Season: 157-82
Redskins: 9-6
Against the Spread: 32-28-4 (Last Week 1-3)
Lock of the Week: 9-7 (Last Week 1-0)

Another blah week in what has become a blah effort here. Hope to do better next year:

Eagles 27, Redskins 17
Jets 19, Dolphins 16
Panthers 33, Saints 26
49ers 23, Rams 10
Patriots 35, Bills 21
Packers 24, Lions 20
Jaguars 17, Colts 16
Titans 20, Texans 17
Vikings 26, Bears 20
Steelers 22, Browns 16
Ravens 23, Bengals 20
Raiders 30, Chargers 20
Cardinals 23, Seahawks 22
Falcons 28, Bucs 21
Broncos 18, Chiefs 16
Giants 27, Cowboys 23

Lock of the Week:

Raiders (-3) vs. Chargers

2. Panthers (+7.5) at Saints
3. Vikings (-1) vs. Bears
4. Patriots (-10.5) vs. Bills

NFL Picks, Pats, and Pardons (Week 16)

2011-12-24T10:35:00.002-06:00

Last Week: 9-7
Season: 149-74
Redskins: 9-5
Against the Spread: 31-25-4 (Last Week 3-1)
Lock of the Week: 8-7 (Last Week 0-1)

Texans 20, Colts 16
Redskins 23, Vikings 17
Jets 27, Giants 24
Eagles 28, Cowboys 26
Broncos 17, Bills 16
Patriots 31, Dolphins 21
Steelers 26, Rams 6
Chiefs 21, Raiders 20
Chargers 27, Lions 24
Packers 24, Bears 10
Panthers 30, Bucs 23
Bengals 20, Cardinals 17
Seahawks 16, 49ers 13
Ravens 24, Browns 9
Falcons 30, Saints 27
Titans 22, Jaguars 13

Lock of the Week:

Steelers (-10.5) vs. Rams

2. Cardinals (+4.5) at Bengals
3. Titans (-7) vs. Jaguars
4. Ravens (-11.5) vs. Browns

NFL Picks, Pats, and Pardons (Week 15)

2011-12-17T08:30:00.002-06:00

Last Week: 13-3
Season: 140-67
Redskins: 9-4
Against the Spread: 28-24-4 (Last Week 3-1)
Lock of the Week: 8-6 (Last Week: 1-0)

Might have to wait until next year for the picks to return in earnest. But for the record, last week was a big week for me, which included nailing what might have been the upset of the year in Arizona. Lame effort again this week, but here are the picks:

Falcons 30, Jaguars 14
Cowboys 24, Bucs 20
Bengals 20, Rams 17
Bills 23, Dolphins 21
Giants 27, Redskins 13
Titans 26, Colts 23
Bears 16, Seahawks 13
Packers 31, Chiefs 23
Panthers 29, Texans 24
Saints 33, Vikings 27
Raiders 24, Lions 22
Cardinals 19, Browns 15
Eagles 28, Jets 27
Patriots 27, Broncos 20
Chargers 24, Ravens 21
Steelers 20, 49ers 13

Lock of the Week:

Giants (-7) vs. Redskins

2. Panthers (+6) at Texans
3. Chiefs (+14) vs. Packers
4. Colts (+7) vs. Titans

NFL Picks, Pats, and Pardons (Week 14)

2011-12-08T16:19:00.000-06:00

Last Week: 10-6
Season: 127-64
Redskins: 8-4
Against the Spread: 25-23-4 (Last Week 3-1)
Lock of the Week: 7-6 (Last Week: 1-0)

Another lame entry this week; juggling newborn with toddler with work has put this little blog firmly on the back-burner. But for the sake of posterity,
here are my picks:

Steelers 26, Browns 10
Bucs 23, Jaguars 19
Patriots 31, Redskins 17
Bengals 22, Texans 20
Jets 24, Chiefs 10
Lions 30, Vikings 21
Saints 33, Titans 26
Eagles 27, Dolphins 23
Ravens 28, Colts 12
Falcons 29, Panthers 24
Broncos 17, Bears 15
Cardinals 20, 49ers 17
Chargers 34, Bills 23
Packers 35, Raiders 20
Cowboys 27, Giants 24
Seahawks 23, Rams 9

Lock of the Week

Cardinals (+3.5) vs. 49ers

2. Chargers (-7) vs. Bills
3. Eagles (+3) at Dolphins
4. Patriots (-9) at Redskins

NFL Picks, Pats, and Pardons (Week 13)

2011-12-01T10:16:00.002-06:00

Last Week: 14-2
Season: 117-58
Redskins: 8-3
Against the Spread: 22-22-4 (Last Week 2-1-1)
Lock of the Week: 6-6 (Last Week 1-0)

Very late on Thanksgiving night as I was finally settling into bed and getting ready to sleep off a massive day of eating, my son decided to arrive. He was here by 10:30 Friday morning, and needless to say, things have been a blur ever since. Therefore, my installment this week will be short and sweet. After weeks of middling to poor results, I did break out a 14-2 record last week and a winning record ATS. I correctly picked a road underdog (Redskins) to win outright. So, let's see if I can keep it rolling. Here are my sleep-deprived picks this week:

Seahawks 20, Eagles 17
Dolphins 19, Raiders 16
Falcons 24, Texans 17
Bills 23, Titans 20
Bears 22, Chiefs 13
Redskins 16, Jets 13
Steelers 27, Bengals 13
Broncos 20, Vikings 19
Bucs 28, Panthers 25
Patriots 34, Colts 16
Ravens 23, Browns 9
Cowboys 26, Cardinals 19
Packers 27, Giants 24
49ers 21, Rams 6
Saints 36, Lions 27
Chargers 29, Jaguars 17

Lock of the Week:

Steelers (-7) vs. Bengals

2. Redskins (+3) vs. Jets
3. Giants (+8) vs. Packers
4. 49ers (-13.5) vs. Rams

NFL Picks, Pats, and Pardons Week 12

2011-11-23T15:39:00.002-06:00

Last Week: 10-4
Season: 103-56
Redskins: 7-3
Against the Spread: 20-21-3 (Last Week 0-2-2)
Lock of the Week: 5-6- (Last Week 0-1)

Last Week's Pats: A couple of tough-luck pushes ATS...Correctly predicted the Lions over the Panthers in a shootout and for Seattle to pull a mild upset in St. Louis.

Last Week's Pardons: Missed pretty badly on my Vikings over Raiders upset and really dropped the ball on my lock of the Cardinals to cover in San Francisco.

This Week's Picks:

Green Bay at Detroit: All year long I've been waiting and anticipating this game to be my big upset call of the year, but now that the game is here, I just can't do it. The Packers look highly motivated at this point and show absolutely no signs of slowing down or taking a mulligan. I'm just not sure how you slow that offense down right now. I think the Lions will be game and make it interesting, but the Pack will prevail.

Packers 34, Lions 30

Miami at Dallas: Tony Romo deserves a ton of credit for his performance in Washington last week. The Redskins played very well and Romo answered the call to make tough plays when his team needed them. Dallas looks like the most stable team in the East right now.

Cowboys 26, Dolphins 16

San Francisco at Baltimore: I guess the Niners aren't fading anytime soon... At this point they have almost nothing to play for in terms of winning their division, but they also might be focused on catching the Packers for the #1 seed in the NFC. Baltimore, on the other hand, continues to look shaky against everyone other than Pittsburgh. A very iffy vote for the Ravens at home.

Ravens 20, 49ers 17

Minnesota at Atlanta: Vikings are hurting both literally and figuratively right now; the Falcons are sort of cruising along during a lull in their schedule. I see this one as a yawner that might stay close for awhile.

Falcons 24, Vikings 17

Houston at Jacksonville: Houston becomes such a question mark now that Matt Schaub has departed and Matt Leinert enters the equation. They should still be able to run the ball and no one in their divison is close enough to really scare them, but overall, this has to be a crushing blow to the Texans' overall hopes.

Texans 19, Jaguars 15

Tampa Bay at Tennessee: I continue to be thoroughly unimpressed with the Bucs following their fine season in 2010, but I'm still willing to bet there's a little fight left in them to pull an upset over the extremely average Titans.

Bucs 22, Titans 20

Arizona at St. Louis: Look away...

Cardinals 20, Rams 17

Cleveland at Cincinnati: Bengals may have been more impressive in their two most recent losses than they were in their previous six victories. Having said that, I do think they are slowly running out of gas and that this game comes at a bad time for them. Giving them a slight nod to win the game, but I see this as a big cover spot for Cleveland.

Bengals 17, Browns 12

Buffalo at New York Jets: Not sure if the Bills are as bad as they've looked the past three weeks, but they clearly aren't as good as they looked the first seven weeks. Jets are desperate and rested.

Jets 27, Bills 10

Carolina at Indianapolis: Shocking to think that a team could win their division one year and go 0-16 the next regardless of the circumstances. Panthers defense is horrible, but I expect Cam Newton to have another huge day.

Panthers 30, Colts 21

Washigton at Seattle: Throwing this upset pick at the wall to see if it sticks...Redskins have been competitive in every game Rex Grossman has started and may have found at least a sliver of momentum on offense last week.

Redskins 18, Seahawks 15

Chicago at Oakland: Sometimes in order to win for the first time in a long time, you need some luck. Raiders got a big stroke of luck this week catching the Bears reeling off the Jay Cutler injury. But the Bears are very tough and I expect their defense to keep them alive.

Raiders 19, Bears 16

New England at Philadelphia: Andy Reid is a proud man and an accomplished coach...he is going to find ways to get his team motivated and focused even in the face of long odds. Extremely impressive win for Philly in New York last week, but the Eagles defense won't have an answer for the Patriots attack.

Patriots 31, Eagles 26

Denver at San Diego: The only thing more fascinating than Tim Tebow's on-field success is the obsession with him off it. I have my doubts about the sustainability of his skill set as well, but I'm not afraid to admit that I'm really rooting for the guy. And while Tebow has been lighting up phone lines and newspaper columns, the Broncos have put together a pretty nice defensive unit. I'm siding with the home team here only because I am often paralyzed by the law of averages.

Chargers 27, Broncos 20

Pittsburgh at Kansas City: The NFL was waffling a few weeks ago on whether or not to flex this game out of primetime..they are probably kicking themselves now. Tyler Palko looked horrendous in his first career start last week and now gets to face the Steelers. Ouch.

Steelers 28, Chiefs 13

New York Giants at New Orleans: Is that late Giants fade underway again? It sure looked like it last Sunday night as the Giants tripped and fell over themselves from start to finish against a hobbled Eagles team. I don't see it getting much better for the G-Men facing a rested Saints squad.

Saints 33, Giants 23

Lock of the Week

Browns (+8) at Bengals

2. Redskins (+3.5) at Seahawks
3. Vikings (+10) at Falcons
4. Bucs (+3.5) at Titans

NFL Picks, Pats, and Pardons Week 11

2011-11-17T15:31:00.006-06:00

Last Week: 7-9
Season: 93-52
Redskins: 6-3
Against the Spread: 20-19-1 (Last Week 2-2)
Lock of the Week: 5-5 (Last Week 1-1)

Last Week's Pats: My march towards total and complete mediocrity continues...I did snag my second lock in a row with the Steelers covering in Cincy and I was also on the right side of two pretty big 50/50 games last week (Saints and Patriots).

Last Week's Pardons: Blew the Texans horn for three years, jumped off the bandwagon about a month ago and they've been on fire ever since... and Tampa may very well be my biggest disappointment this season. Also missed on my upset pick of Indy to get their first win over the Jags. And I didn't forsee any of the bigger upsets coming either (Cardinals, Seahawks, Broncos).

This Week's Picks:

New York Jets at Denver Broncos: For the past several years quarterbacks like Peyton Manning and Drew Brees have been rewriting the record books and redefining how we view the position and even the sport in general. Tim Tebow may be poised to go on a similar journey albeit taking a completely different route. I find his skill set fascinating. My gut tells me that defenses eventually catch on and this blows up on Denver fairly soon, but there's also just something about Tebow that makes me think he can defy the odds. Bad spot for him this week though...

Jets 24, Broncos 12

Carolina at Detroit: Close to a must win game for the Lions if they want to escape their current mini slide and still stay very relevant in the playoff chase. I'm not surprised that Detroit got off to a hot start and I'm even less surprised that they've circled back a bit. I will be surprised if they lose on Sunday though.

Lions 33, Panthers 25

Tampa Bay at Green Bay: The team is a machine led by a robot...that is hard to beat.

Packers 27, Bucs 17

Dallas at Washington: Traditionally these are close games regardless of current circumstances and Dallas is still very capable of producing a clunker that makes everyone scratch their heads. Those two elements make this match-up mildly interesting, but on paper, this shouldn't be a game for more than a half. A strong Cowboys D should feast on the Redskins putrid offense and Romo and company should move the ball steadily, if not spectacularly, all day long.

Cowboys 31, Redskins 10

Buffalo at Miami: I am very, very iffy on this pick because it appears that Buffalo is officially turning back into a pumpkin, but I have a feeling they right the ship in Miami this week as the Dolphins realize they could be drifting farther and farther away from Andrew Luck.

Bills 19, Dolphins 16

Jacksonville at Cleveland: The Browns have had an incredibly easy schedule so far this year and yet, they have a 3-6 record to show for it. Jacksonville has only been slightly more impressive this year. Flip a coin and go with the home team.

Browns 20, Jaguars 17

Oakland at Minnesota: One of the harder calls on the board this week. Oakland looked fantastic in San Diego last Thursday night and Minnesota was completely out of their element in Green Bay. However, one plus one doesn't always equal two in the NFL and I see the Vikings snatching one away this week.

Vikings 26, Raiders 23

Cincinnati at Baltimore: I was surprised at how close the Bengals kept their game with the Steelers last week. I also wonder if that loss may have stung them a bit emotionally. Following up that game by going on the road to Baltimore against a Ravens team that just got humiliated in Seattle is a very rough spot for the Bengals to be in.

Ravens 28, Bengals 13

Seattle at St. Louis: In the pre-season this looked like it might be a fairly interesting/important game. It isn't.

Seahawks 18, Rams 17

Arizona at San Francisco: The 49ers are certainly at an all time high this week, which is why I think there might be some Vegas value in the Cards here. But in terms of who wins the game, I have a hard time seeing Arizona putting up many points.

49ers 17, Cardinals 13

San Diego at Chicago: Are the Chargers in a rut? Are they just bad? Confused? Unlucky? All of the above? I'd love to pick the upset here, but San Diego just looks lost and the Bears are rolling.

Bears 30, Chargers 24

Tennessee at Atlanta: Titans are just kind of drifting out there, hanging around the fringes of the AFC playoff picture, but ultimately I think they are simply an 8-8 type football team. I look for the Falcons to handle this one pretty easily.

Falcons 27, Titans 16

Philadelphia at New York Giants: I think last week was the officially nail in the Eagles coffin for 2011. Part of me thinks maybe they have a few more punches in them, but more likely, they are just toast from here on out.

Giants 27, Eagles 20

Kansas City at New England: This will get ugly fast.

Patriots 34, Chiefs 17

Lock of the Week:

Cardinals (+10) at 49ers

2. Cowboys (-8.5) at Redskins
3. Falcons (-6) vs. Titans
4. Ravens (-7) vs. Bengals

NFL Picks, Pats, and Pardons (Week 10)

2011-11-09T16:17:00.002-06:00

Last Week: 7-7
Season: 86-43
Redskins: 5-3
Against the Spread: 18-17-1 (Last Week 2-2)
Lock of the Week: 4-5 (Last Week 1-0)

Last Week's Pats: Hovering right at .500 the past few weeks, so not a ton to brag about it, although I did correctly predict for the Jets to win outright in Buffalo and I had the Bears as my Lock of the Week (I thought the 9 points they were getting was the most slanted line of the NFL season thus far).

Last Week's Pardons: Apologies to pretty much anyone who won after the 1:00 games last week. I was on a roll early, and then starting with the 4:00 games, I only got one right (including the night games). Picking the Chargers to beat Green Bay was very cute....and very dumb.

This Week's Games:

Oakland at San Diego: I'm not sure what Norv Turner did in his past life, but he must be paying for something...over his career as a head coach his teams have found some of the most baffling ways to lose football games that anyone will ever see. I say his team bounces back this week, but nothing would surprise me.

Chargers 30, Raiders 23

Jacksonville at Indianapolis: I don't think the Colts are going to go 0-16, although they sure seem bound and determined to do so. Gun to my head, I pick the Jags, but this may be the last chance I get to pick Indy this year, so here goes...

Colts 22, Jaguars 20

Denver at Kansas City: Tim Tebow is a fascinating player to watch; if results didn't matter, he'd probably be on the trash heap by now. But results are pretty important, right?

Chiefs 26, Broncos 23

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati: I absolutely bow down to Marvin Lewis and his Bengals right now. They get an A+ for the first half of this season...only Green Bay gets that same mark. Having said that, I do think this is a tough spot for the Bengals young guns on offense.

Steelers 27, Bengals 15

Buffalo at Dallas: Somewhat predictably, the Bills came back down to earth last week. The question for them now is whether or not last week was the exception or if it was the first seven games that were the exception. I'm splitting the difference here.

Cowboys 28, Bills 23

New Orleans at Atlanta: HUGE game for the Falcons this week; it is very hard to see them winning the division if they drop this one. After a slow start, Atlanta has leveled out and looking much steadier, but I saw things in that those first handful of games that give me pause about them going forward. The line here is a Pick Em, which is spot on because I am very unsure, but I'll side with the Saints. When in doubt, pick the better team.

Saints 31, Falcons 28

St. Louis at Cleveland: Yikes

Browns 18, Rams 15

Washington at Miami: Yikes part 2

Dolphins 17, Redskins 13

Houston at Tampa Bay: Disappointing season for the Bucs thus far; Josh Freeman doesn't appear to be progressing much and their offense in general seems stagnant. Houston, on the other hand, has gotten healthy against some bad teams lately and they are running away with the NFC South. Much bigger game for Tampa, so that's my lean.

Bucs 23, Texans 20

Tennessee at Carolina: The Titans were a team that was hanging around for awhile, but last week showed me they are clearly not playoff contenders. I see their defense having major trouble with Cam Newton this week.

Panthers 30, Titans 24

Arizona at Philadelphia: Bears showed the world that the Eagles four game losing streak wasn't a total mirage. Lucky for Philly, their opponent this week will not be able to expose them further.

Eagles 33, Cardinals 19

Baltimore at Seattle: Coming off an extremely emotional victory and flying across country has me thinking this game stays close. If I had to pick my wild upset of the week, this would be it... but I'm not going there.

Ravens 20, Seahawks 16

New York Giants at San Francisco: Welcome to 1990. Possible NFC Championship preview? I'm not going that far as I believe that the Packers, Lions, and Saints will all have something to say about that, but this is certainly a great match up between two old rivals. Somewhere John Madden is smiling.

Giants 19, 49ers 17

Detroit at Chicago: If you look closely enough, you will see a darkhorse MVP candidate playing quarterback for the Bears. Jay Cutler has been exceptional this season and the Bears have looked very strong the past few weeks. Look for them to get a little revenge on Sunday.

Bears 24, Lions 20

New England at New York Jets: Normally, I'd pick the Patriots to win this game based solely on the principle that they are coming off a loss. But right now, the problems in New England are real...their defense simply isn't very good and the offense isn't as dynamic as it once was. Throw in the fact that the Jets are rolling and this is a bad spot for the Pats. But I'll pick them anyway :)

Patriots 22, Jets 19

Minnesota at Green Bay: The Vikings have had two weeks to prepare for the Packers aerial show. It won't matter.

Packers 34, Vikings 21

Lock of the Week

Steelers (-3) at Bengals

2. Giants (+3.5) at 49ers
3. Bucs (+3) vs. Texans
4. Seahawks (+7) vs. Ravens

NFL Picks, Pats, and Pardons (Week 9)

2011-11-05T22:58:00.002-05:00

Last Week: 6-7
Season: 79-37
Redskins: 4-3
Against the Spread: 16-15-1 (Last Week 0-4)
Lock of the Week: 3-5 (Last Week 0-1)

Last Week's Pats: I got nothing.

Last Week's Pardons: You got a few hours? Wow, where to begin? An absolutely dreadful week both straight up and against the spread. I got ultra-cute with my Redskins-Bills upset and was wearing egg on my face about ten minutes after that game started. I also missed badly on Cobwoys-Eagles and Bengals-Seahawks. EVERYONE missed on Saints-Rams, so I won't beat myself up too bad over that one. I was also on the wrong side of Patriots-Steelers. Ouch for week 8.

This Week's Picks:

Miami at Kansas City: The Dolphins have played their hearts out the past couple of weeks, and still have zero wins to show for their efforts. At some point, you have to wonder if they can keep swinging.

Chiefs 27, Dolphins 13

Tampa Bay at New Orleans: The sigh you heard last Sunday was from Bucs coach Raheem Morris as he watched the Saints fall in St. Louis. Tampa is now assured to get a fully focused Saints team this Sunday. I like the Bucs entering the year, but I've been underwhelmed thus far.

Saints 29, Bucs 23

Atlanta at Indianapolis: Colts have been dreadful on the road, competitive at home, but winless everywhere. I see those trends continuing this week.

Falcons 24, Colts 17

Cleveland at Houston: The Browns have been unable to take advantage of manageable early schedule, and have looked shaky even in their three wins. And the Peyton Hillis situation seems to get uglier by the day. Disappointing season so far for Cleveland fans and I don't think they get any relief this week.

Texans 25, Browns 16

New York Jets at Buffalo: Get those strong gut feelings every now and then, and I have one here. This is a spot where Rex Ryan has really excelled thus far in his coaching career...every time the Jets are teetering a bit and we aren't sure which way they are going to go, they rise up and win a big game in a tough spot. Love what the Bills are doing, but I think Rex gets them this week.

Jets 20, Bills 17

San Francisco at Washington: Hardest thing to do when picking NFL games is to somehow distance yourself from the results of the previous week...if we base our thoughts on this game soley on what we saw the past week or so, the lean here is for easy victory for the 49ers. But other trends and averages seem to point the other way. Washington was overachieving a bit the first few weeks for sure, but they also aren't as clueless as the showed last week against Buffalo. I see them bouncing back and keeping it close, but it's hard to pick a John Beck led team to actually win a game. An upset wouldn't stun me here though.

49ers 17, Redskins 15

Seattle at Dallas: Lose to a good team on the road, come home, destroy a bad team, lose to a good team on the road, come home....

Cowboys 30, Seahawks 13

Cincinnati at Tennessee: Keep waiting for the bottom to fall out a bit in Cincy, and it hasn't it...as a matter of fact, it hasn't even been close. So impressed with Andy Dalton and AJ Green, but my biggest praise goes to Marvin Lewis, Mike Zimmer, and that defense. Having said that...

Titans 23, Bengals 20

Green Bay at San Diego: Either Phillip Rivers is having girl problems or he's just been "Norved".... something is up though. This is one of those picks I will come back to on Monday and think, "wow, I'm such a moron," but I just feel it here. Still think there might be some cracks in that Green Bay D.

Chargers 27, Packers 24

New York Giants at New England: Giants are in a fine position at 5-2, but they've been a bit shaky there. Catching the Patriots coming off a loss is never a good thing.. especially when you are dealing with some significant injuries.

Patriots 31, Giants 19

Denver at Oakland: Raiders have had two weeks to stew after their humiliating loss to Kansas City and two weeks for Carson Palmer to get acclimated. They should have their act together by now, and if not, we probably won't be able to tell anyway.

Raiders 21, Broncos 16

St. Louis at Arizona: AJ Feely vs. John Skelton? Sign me up!

Cardinals 23, Rams 22

Baltimore at Pittsburgh: Ravens just don't look right and the Steelrs look VERY right. The revenge angle will also be strong... Steelers will be ready to crack some heads. I respect this rivalry a bit too much to be thiking blowout, but I say Pittsburgh controls the game from the outset.

Steelers 26, Ravens 16

Chicago at Philadelphia: Any chance we see an overcorrection here? People buried the Eagles after their 1-4 start and now people are talking Super Bowl again two weeks later. I liked what I saw from Philly the past few weeks as well, but I also liked what the Bears did in London. This one stays close.

Eagles 27, Bears 23

Lock of the Week

Bears (+9) at Eagles

2. Chargers (+5.5) vs. Packers
3. Redskins (+4.5) vs. 49ers
4. Jets (+2) at Bills

NFL Picks, Pats, and Pardons (Week 8)

2011-10-27T22:16:00.008-05:00

Last Week: 8-5
Season: 73-30
Redskins: 4-2
Against the Spread: 16-11-1 (Last Week 3-1)
Lock of the Week: 3-4 (Last Week 1-0)

Last Week's Pats: Another solid week ATS and finally got back on track with my lock as the Cowboys pasted the helpless Rams. Best pick of the week was going with Atlanta to not only cover, but win outright in Detroit.

Last Weeks Pardon's: Second time this year I called for the Cardinals to pull off a big upset and the second time this year I have looked like a moron on for doing so... Also missed badly on the Texans-Titans game.

This Week's Picks:

New Orleans at St. Louis: Things looked promising last year for the Rams; now I'm wondering how Steve Spagnuolo can possibly keep his jobs. The Rams are completely lifeless in all phases right now.

Saints 37, Rams 20

Arizona at Baltimore: Just when you're ready to annoint the Ravens as a Super Bowl favorite, they go out and absolutely vomit on the field like they did in Jacksonville on Monday night. That was as disgusting an offensive performance as you will see from a contending team. This is an easy bounce back pick this week, but if I'm a Ravens fan, I'm concerned.

Ravens 29, Cardinals 15

Minnesota at Carolina: Pretty nice debut for Chrisitian Ponder last week, but in terms of development, few rookies perform at the level Cam Newton is performing at right now.

Panthers 30, Vikings 23

Indianapolis at Tennessee: Highly disappointing effort from the Titans last week given they had a chance to take charge of the AFC South with a banged up Houston team in town. All in all, Tennesseee looks like an 8-8 team to me, but they will most likely show much better than that against the dreadful Colts this week.

Titans 27, Colts 17

Jacksonville at Houston: Naturally, the week I finally give up on the Texans, they go on the road and throttle a division opponent. Jaguars played well on Monday versus Baltimore, but by no means are they a threat to anyone.

Texans 32, Jaguars 21

Miami at New York Giants: It appears the Dolphins are taking the Suck For Luck campaign rather seriously.

Giants 28, Dolphins 12

Detroit at Denver: Say what you want about the guy, but Tim Tebow is interesting and entertaining at the very least. He is bucking every current QB trend in the NFL and it's pretty fascinating to watch, even if at times he looks like a horror show back there. I don't think he can keep pace with Detroit this week, as the Lions are hungry for a win following back to back losses.

Lions 31, Broncos 23

Washington at Buffalo: Washington has a terrible time matching up with small, speedy backs and receivers and with mobile quarterbacks. They fare better against traditional offensive attacks and pocket passers. Based on this and an odd gut feeling I'm calling the upset here.

Redskins 24, Bills 19

New England at Pittsburgh: One of the first truly big games of this NFL season. Should be a great showcase for the two of the league's elite passers, but I consider both defenses to be a tad suspect right now, which is odd to say, especially in the case of Pittsburgh. I think it stays very close with Brady outplaying Big Ben.

Patriots 27, Steelers 23

Cleveland at San Francisco: The Browns might be the least impressive 3-3 team of all time... Their epic 6-3 win over the Seahawks is a testament to that. Look for the Niners to control this low scoring affair.

49ers 19, Browns 15

Cincinnati at Seattle: I just love what Marvin Lewis is doing, but something tells me the Seahawks (always tough at home) squeak one out.

Seahawks 20, Bengals 17

Dallas at Philadelphia: Close to a must win for the Eagles and not too far away from being the same for the Cowboys. I believe Dallas has the most overall talent in the division, but I also figure the Eagles should be rested and energized following a win and the bye week. Just going off of what my eyes have shown me this year...

Cowboys 27, Eagles 24

San Diego at Kansas City: Even though they haven't beaten anyone of note, still gotta tip your cap to the Chiefs for rallying from 0-3 to 3-3. At the same time, it looks like the same ole story with the Chargers.... Outings of brilliance followed by abject disappointment whenever they have a chance to make a statement. Considering this isn't really a "statement" game, I'll go with SD.

Chargers 30, Chiefs 26

Lock of the Week:

Cowboys (+3) at Eagles

2. Redskins (+6) at Bills
3. Giants (-11) vs. Dolphins
4. Saints (-14) at Rams

NFL Picks, Pats, and Pardons (Week 7)

2011-10-22T23:53:00.001-05:00

Last Week: 10-3
Season: 65-25
Redskins: 3-2
Against the Spread: 13-10-1 (Last Week 3-1)
Lock of the Week: 2-4 (Last Week 0-1)

Last Week's Pats: Nailed the Cowboys-Patriots game pretty much perfectly, predicting the Pats to win, but for Dallas to cover. Did well overall (3-1) on picks ATS.

Last Week's Pardons: My locks continue to be anything but. Not only did I miss the cover on the Colts-Bengals game, but I went so far as to pick Indy outright, which of course was way off base... Apologies to the Bengals. Also leaned a bit too much with my heart on the Redskins prediction... I chose to ignore glaring match up deficiencies and I know better than that.

This Week's Picks:

San Diego at New York Jets: Two teams that have figured fairly prominently in the AFC over the past few years and as you might expect things got a tad chippy through the media this week. I am as up in the air on this one as the Pick Em spread would indicate, but I'm leaning on history here.

Jets 22, Chargers 19

Seattle at Cleveland: Probably the most inconsequential game of the day, although I do think the Seahawks earned some street cred with their win in New York two weeks ago. Not buying it enough to pick them to win on east coast time again.

Browns 17, Seahawks 15

Atlanta at Detroit: The Lions were bound to fade a tad... Or at least lose a game, so I wasn't shocked that the 49ers went in and upset them last week. Now that a loss is out of the way, the question is on what level do the Lions even out? I think when it is all said and done, Detroit will wind up being the third of fourth best team in the NFC, but I have a sneaky feeling Atlanta gets them this week.

Falcons 26, Lions 23

Washington at Carolina: The Redskins match up terribly with the Eagles speed on offense. Carolina is a less polished version of that attack, which is not good news for the Redskins. John Beck behind a beat up offensive line won't be able to keep pace.

Panthers 25, Redskins 20

Chicago at Tampa Bay: The "at" in this case is of course, a shaky term at best considering the game is being played in London. I'm over this little stunt by the way.... Tampa responded well to their embarrassing effort in San Francisco two weeks ago, and I think they keep rolling against an extremely average Bears squad.

Bucs 28, Bears 23

Denver at Miami: Tim Tebow makes this game somewhat less a yawner...somewhat.

Broncos 21, Dolphins 17

Houston at Tennessee: My infatuation with the Texans is officially over. They are soft and they are missing their two best players. The Titans aren't exactly loaded with playmakers, but I think they pound Houston on Sunday.

Titans 23, Texans 18

Pittsburgh at Arizona: Even though Steeler Nation will invade the desert to the point where it will be a virtual neutral site game, I like the Cards to pull the upset.

Cardinals 24, Steelers 21

St. Louis at Dallas: I think Dallas has been the most impressive team in the NFC East this year, yet they sit at 2-3 through five games. The Rams without Sam Bradford? Good grief.

Cowboys 34, Rams 10

Kansas City at Oakland: Hard to pick any team with Kyle Boller under center to a win a game, but I see the Raiders dominating on the ground and getting enough stops on defense to hold off the Chiefs... Who I'm still not buying.

Raiders 27, Chiefs 20

Green Bay at Minnesota: Welcome to the NFL Christian Ponder... Your first task... Keep pace with Aaron Rodgers. Good luck.

Packers 31, Vikings 14

Indianapolis at New Orleans: Al Michaels and Chris Collinsworth will be searching for talking points by the end of the first quarter.

Saints 38, Colts 21

Baltimore at Jacksonville: I see a pesky effort from the Jags on national television, but it won't be enough to hang with an improving Ravens team.

Ravens 27, Jaguars 17

Lock of the Week:

Cowboys (-14) vs. Rams

2. Falcons (+4) at Lions
3. Jets (Pick Em) vs. Chargers
4. Bucs (-1) vs. Bears

NFL Picks, Pats, and Pardons (Week 6)

2011-10-15T00:22:00.000-05:00

Last Week: 6-7
Season: 55-22
Redskins: 3-1
Against the Spread: 10-9-1 (Last Week 2-2)
Lock of the Week: 2-3 (Last Week 1-0)

Last Week's Pats: Slim pickens...got my lock of the week correct with the Lions covering the points against Chicago and I was only one point off in the final score prediction of Jets-Pats.

Last Week's Pardons: Lots to go around. I should probably start with the 49ers, who are getting an apology from me for the second week in a row. But I can't stop there... Missed on Eagles-Bills and also wound up looking a bit silly taking the Falcons over the Pack.

This Week's Picks:

Carolina at Atlanta: Things just don't look right with the Falcons. I think they should be a tad concerned about Matt Ryan-- he just isn't progressing very much. And the defense can't seem to get it together for 60 minutes on any given week. I'll lean their way this week, but it wouldn't shock me one bit if the Panthers pulled off the upset here.

Falcons 30, Panthers 24

San Francisco at Detroit: I would say the Lions are due for a letdown, but wouldn't the Niners fall into the same category?

Lions 26, 49ers 17

Indianapolis at Cincinnati: Continue to be highly impressed with what Marvin Lewis is doing in Cincy; but their margin for error is very small, and ultimately I still see the Bengals as a 6-7 win team. Colts have to be reeling from blowing the lead against KC last week, but something tells me they pull an upset here.

Colts 20, Bengals 17

Philadelphia at Washington: Borderline clueless here. I have no gut either way, and very little lean overall. Vegas has the game pegged perfectly as a virtual pick em. On paper the Eagles are the pick. Based on history, the Eagles are the pick. But based on what we have seen in 2011, the Redskins get the nod. No outcome would surprise me here, but I'm going to go with what I've seen this year over everything else.

Redskins 27, Eagles 22

St. Louis at Green Bay: The Rams would have had to have done some serious cleansing during the bye week in order to even make this competitive. I'm not sure there is a bar of soap in the world big enough to do the trick.

Packers 35, Rams 16

Jacksonville at Pittsburgh: The Steelers have looked subpar in their two road games against quality opponents and they are fortunate to have gotten Seattle, Tennessee, and now Jacksonville at home to help offset those shaky outings.

Steelers 30, Jaguars 16

Buffalo at New York Giants: no question about it, Seattle winning in New York last week was the biggest shock of the NFL season, but I'm predicting the Giants bounce back and take down a Bills team that has had everything go their way thus far.

Giants 29, Bills 21

Cleveland at Baltimore: Oakland's win in Houston was the biggest that franchise has had in years, especially once you factor in the emotions surrounding the passing of Al Davis. I think the emotions continue to flow positively for the Raiders this week.

Raiders 27, Browns 20

Houston at Baltimore: Unless you are a die-hard Redskins fan you may not appreciate this comparison, but I view the Texans as a more talented version of the Norv Turner-era Redskins. Houston is so uneven, so inconsistent, and they do so many things that leave you scratching your head, despite their talent and occasional weeks of brilliance. I've been on their bandwagon for years now, but I think I've seen enough.

Ravens 23, Texans 19

New Orleans at Tampa Bay: I was very high on Josh Freeman and the Bucs heading into the year, but they've been unimpressive thus far and were flat out humiliated in San Francisco last week. I am going to stick with my pre-season gut one more week, but Tampa is iffy in my eyes right now.

Bucs 29, Saints 26

Dallas at New England: I have a funny feeling the Cowboys keep this thing close; real close. I think the spread is off on this game.

Patriots 25, Cowboys 23

Minnesota at Chicago: Pure desperation game for both teams with the Packers and Lions both cruising right now. Vikings rolled up points last week without Donovan McNabb really doing anything. Hard to win like that week in and week out.

Bears 24, Vikings 17

Miami at New York Jets: Question: what do you need if your team has lost three in a row and the pressure and tension is mounting? Answer: The Dolphins.

Jets 31, Dolphins 14

Lock of the Week:

Colts (+8) at Bengals

2. Cowboys (+7) at Patriots
3. Packers (-14.5) vs. Rams
4. Bucs (+4.5) vs. Saints

NFL Picks, Pats, and Pardons (Week 5)

2011-10-08T21:48:00.009-05:00

Last Week: 13-3
Season: 49-15
Redskins: 3-1
Against the Spread: 8-7-1 (Last Week 1-3)
Lock of the Week: 1-3 (Last Week 0-1)

Last Week's Pats: I've been patting myself on the back all week for my Bengals over Bills pick; I mean really strutting my stuff. Hitting a pick like that can really make a guy cocky...And overall, a 13-win week keeps me pretty scorching to start this season.

Last Week's Pardons: 1-3 ATS for the second week in a row. I was feeling great about the Falcons being my lock when they were up big in Seattle, but then they blew it... By far my biggest miss was the 49ers-Eagles game, and I believe I owe an apology to San Francisco...not only did I think Philly would win, I thought it would be easy.

This Week's Picks:

New Orleans at Carolina: Excellent response from the Saints following their tough opening night loss in Green Bay. Brees and company have been just gouging their opponents all year. But that defense remains iffy, and Cam Newton and the Panthers continue to impress, despite the fact that they can't close games. Very tempeted to pick an upset here, but instead, I'll say it's a close call for New Orleans.

Saints 27, Panthers 25

Philadelphia at Buffalo: No game in recent history has tested my "never bet the due" mantra more than this game. Maybe the Eagles aren't who we thought they were, but they are better than 1-3, right? Maybe the Bills aren't who we thought they were, but they aren't as good as 3-1, right? My confidence in the Eagles is waning fast, but I'll stick with my gut that they are going to turn it around at least a little bit sooner rather than later.

Eagles 26, Bills 21

Seattle at New York Giants: Giants have navigated a tough opening schedule to find themselves atop the NFC East with the Redskins. Their reward is as easy a three game homestand as you will ever see in the NFL, starting Sunday with the Seahawks. New York better cash in because their final 9 games are beyond brutal.

Giants 31, Seahawks 13

Cincinnati at Jacksonville: You know what, I may be one of the few, but I like Marvin Lewis. I think he's done about as well as can be resonably expected with what he has been dealt in Cincy over the years. And rather than fall into the fetal position with this rebuilding roster, he has the Benglas playing tough football week in and week out. I don't think they can keep up their current .500 pace, but I think Cincy fans should be encouraged. Having said that, Blaine Gabbert gets win #1 of his career on Sunday.

Jaguars 19, Bengals 16

Kansas City at Indianpolis: Colts have fought very hard the past two weeks, and I see no reason to think they won't keep fighting. Kansas City got a bit of relief by beating the lousy Vikings last week, and I wonder if they may fall back into some bad habits. Coin toss game, and really, a pretty irrelevant game.

Colts 24, Chiefs 21

Tennessee at Pittsburgh: Good start for the Titans, but they are in a terrible spot this weekend in Pittsburgh. I'm not sold that all is going to be fine and dandy in the Steel City, but I do think this is a spot for them to get a bit of momentum.

Steelers 23, Titans 13

Arizona at Minnesota: On paper, the Cards are the better team...but at the same time, I don't think the Vikings are going 0-16, so this would seem like an opportunity to capture one of what may be very few wins this year.

Vikings 25, Cardinals 22

Oakland at Houston: Al Davis was a visionary and pioneer. He had a major hand in building this league that so many love. He had some flaws to be sure and I do think things got out of hand in Oakland over the past several years, but overall, his tenure there was wildly successful.. in large part because he transcended his team and left a lasting impression on the sport itself. I think the Raiders will play hard for him on Sunday, but come up short. The first home game back in Oakland will be emotional though.

Texans 27, Raiders 23

Tampa Bay at San Francisco: Jim Harbaugh is already making a positive impression. I still have my doubts about their talent, but if they win this one, I may become a believer.

Bucs 20, 49ers 17

New York Jets at New England: You have to figure the Patriots have been waiting for this game since the Jets wiped them off the field last January. There are some major issues in New York right now and I'm not sure this is a good spot to get them figured out.

Patriots 31, Jets 23

San Diego at Denver: Not sure what to think of San Diego other than what I always think of them....a good team, not a serious threat come crunch time. They are 3-1, but lost to the one decent team they played this year. They are not playing a decent team on Sunday. Phillip Rivers should have a big day.

Chargers 34, Broncos 26

Green Bay at Atlanta: Really not liking what I'm seeing from the Falcons thus far. The offense is uneven and the defense looks shaky at best. This is a huge game for Atlanta both from a standings perspective and an emotional/revenge perspective. Based on those factors, I'll side with them to eek one out, but my faith here is not strong.

Falcons 29, Packers 27

Chicago at Detroit: While not for as important of a reason, I have a feeling the atmosphere in Detroit on Monday Night will be similar to what we saw in New Orleans for this first game back in the Superdome after Katrina. This is the first time the Lions have been in this spot in eons, their team is off to a fabulous start, and they are playing a divison rival. The fans will be jazzed, and the team will feed off of them. I think this could turn into a mauling.

Lions 28, Bears 16

Lock of the Week:

Lions (-5) vs. Bears

2. Panthers (+6.5) vs. Saints
3. Falcons (+5.5) vs. Packers
4. Jaguars (Pick Em) vs. Bengals

NFL Picks, Pats, and Pardons (Week 4)

2011-09-30T15:15:00.005-05:00

Last Week: 10-6
Season: 36-12
Redskins: 2-1
Against the Spread: 7-1-4 (Last Week 1-3)
Lock of the Week: 1-2 (Last Week 0-1)

Last Week's Pats: Probably most proud that I correctly predicted that Indy would hang tight and lose late to Pittsburgh, but that the Colts were a great beat to cover the 11 points- that was a huge number for a home team on a Sunday Night, regardless of the circumstances. Also called Bucs over Falcons which was probably the most 50/50 game of the week.

Last Week's Pardons: Missed pretty badly on the Giants-Eagles game and didn't have a solid read on Cardinals-Seahawks either (that game really surprised me). And one of these days perhaps I will learn my lesson by over-valuing the Texans.

This Week's Picks:

Detroit at Dallas: Hmmm...this one could make your head spin. I was one of those people on the Lions bandwagon from the start...picked them to go 10-6 and said they could very well be a legit Super Bowl contender late in the season. I am not shocked at their 3-0 start. However, they are due for at least a small bump in the road...and an away game against a solid opponent would seem to be a logical spot for s slip-up. The Cobwoys front seven will be the best Detroit has faced this year...But all in all, I'm sticking with the Motown crew...they are the more talented team here.

Lions 26, Cowboys 23

Carolina at Chicago: In the pre-season, I pegged the Bears as a disappointment and then began to question myself after their week one spanking of the Falcons. Now, I'm beginning to think my gut was right all along. Not impressed with what I've seen the past two weeks from Chicago on either side of the ball. I don't think the Panthers have the horses or experience yet to win at Soldier Field, but I think it stays close and the Bears win ugly.

Bears 19, Panthers 15

New Orleans at Jacksonville: They can't stop anyone, but who cares? The Saints are an offensive machine and will roll through the Jags defense.

Saints 33, Jaguars 21

Tennessee at Cleveland: Usually, you can find slightly different betting lines on games depending on where you look. For this game, all I see is a big fat "0" on each site I've checked. This is a pure Pick Em game in every sense. Normally, I lean towards the home team in these games, but my coin flip reaction here is to side with the Titans.

Titans 20, Browns 19

Buffalo at Cincinnati: Cute pick of the week....Quietly Cincy has played good defense this year and the Bills haven't stopped anyone yet. It's also quite an emotional swing to go from a 21 point comeback at home against New England to a road game in Cincinnati. Good spot here for a huge upset.

Bengals 24, Bills 22

Minnesota at Kansas City: Desperation Bowl. Two bad teams both grasping at straws to retain any sort of relevance early in the season. Game could certainly go either way, but I'm thinking Minnesota gives it to Adrian Peterson about 30 times and sneaks away with a W.

Vikings 27, Chiefs 23

San Francisco at Philadelphia: The 49ers offense is just what a reeling Eagles defense needs. Very bad vibes in Philly right now and this game comes at an excellent time. Look for the Eagles to bounce back rather impressively this week, but I wouldn't be fooled into thinking all is well.

Eagles 30, 49ers 13

Washington at St. Louis: They say "never bet the due" in sports, but sometimes it's hard to dodge history and logic. Teams just don't get destroyed week in and week out like St. Louis has thus far. And if they drop this game, they are clearly facing an 0-7 start with games at Green Bay and Dallas next, followed by a home game with the Saints. And the Rams aren't THAT bad, are they? For now, I'll eschew history and my gut and go with the better team on paper. But I'd be stunned if St. Louis gets rolled again.

Redskins 23, Rams 20

Pittsburgh at Houston: No team has made me look more moronic over the past three years than the Texans. I've been pumping them up and picking them to win big games and cover spreads since 2009. They've had their moments, but almost invariably, when the rubber meats the road, Houston has failed to deliver in the big spot. They are going to win the AFC South by default this year, so their loss in New Orleans means little in the standings, but I was hoping to see a Super Bowl contender emerge, and what I saw was the same ole' Texans. I am giving them one more week...but I vow to never pick them to win another big game if they don't take care of Pittsburgh on Sunday.

Texans 26, Steelers 21

Atlanta at Seattle: Easiest straight-up call of them week. Atlanta has been very shaky thus far, but Seattle is a very bad football team, albeit one that did find a way to win last week.

Falcons 29, Seahawks 16

New York Giants at Arizona: Last week pretty much summed up the Coughlin/Manning era in New York for me. Sort of left for dead after losing in week one and yawning through a week two victory, the Giants went on the road, in the division, and gutted out a win on heart, smarts, and guile. They were simply tougher than Philly and Eli continues to play his best when it matters most. What can get lost in those moments is the fact that the Giants rush defense was gashed last week, and people don't seem to realize how good Arizona has been at home under Ken Whisenhunt. Here's another upset for you...

Cardinals 27, Giants 24

Denver at Green Bay: Aaron Raodgers is licking his chops...

Packers 37, Broncos 20

New England at Oakland: When the schedule came out, I had a sense that this might be a good spot for an upset...but not after New England blew their game in Buffalo last week. I expect the Patriots to be poised and sharp.

Patriots 31, Raiders 21

Miami at San Diego: Dolphins gave it a worthy effort last week, but this just isn't a very good team. And is it just me, or does it seem like every Chargers home game is a creampuff?

Chargers 34, Dolphins 17

New York Jets at Baltimore: Initially, this game conjures up thoughts of bloody knuckles and QB's getting drilled into the turf. But in reality, these are two teams that have fairly dynamic young QB's and passing games in general. I said in the pre-season that it was time for the Ravens to let Flacco loose...last week was a step in that direction. I see a high-energy, highly entertaining contest with Flacco out-dueling Sanchez late.

Ravens 28, Jets 25

Indianapolis at Tampa Bay: Colts gave it all they had last week, I don't see them having much left.

Bucs 30, Colts 13

Lock of the Week

Falcons (-4.5) at Seahawks

2. Eagles (-9) vs. 49ers
3. Bucs (-10) vs. Colts
4. Patriots (-5.5) at Raiders

NFL Picks, Pats, and Pardons (Week 3)

2011-09-23T23:14:00.003-05:00

Last Week: 15-1
Season: 26-6
Redskins: 1-1
Against the Spread: 6-1-1
Lock of the Week: 1-1

Last Week's Pats: Sizzling to say the least...if you go 15-1 and hit three out of four against the spread (including your lock) you can pat yourself on the back for a week straight, which is precisely what I've been doing. Not only did I lock down most of the winners, I was also very close on point totals, spreads, etc.. Clearly, I was in the zone.

Last Week's Pardons: I was pretty far off on the Ravens-Titans game, but again, at 15-1, I refuse to extend a pardon to anyone.

This Week's Picks

Jacksonville at Carolina: NOW Cam Newton has my attention...what an absolutely sensational start to his career. Even though the Panthers are 0-2, spirits must be high throughout the organization. While I could see becoming a more plodding affair than Carolina's first two games, I do think Cam notches career win number one.

Panthers 23, Jaguars 19

Denver at Tennessee: During the Bengals-Broncos game last week I commented that Denver better hold on to win because I'm not sure they'd have many more opportunities to do so this year. Broncos are not a good football team.

Titans 22, Broncos 14

Houston at New Orleans: It is going to take a colossal effort for the Texans NOT to win the AFC South this year. They are clearly the most talented team and the three teams chasing them are all flawed beyond measure. But if Houston wants people to start taking them really seriously, they are going to need to shake their "soft" label. You do that by beating good teams on the road. I'm thinking the Texans breakthrough this week.

Texans 29, Saints 26

Detroit at Minnesota: If you gave me the task of listing every team in the NFL 1-32 based on how fun it is going to be to root for a team over the next 2-3 years, there is a good chance I'd put the Lions at #1 and the Vikings at #32. I have no idea what Minnesota is doing.

Lions 31, Vikings 23

New York Giants at Philadelphia: Eagles clearly looked like the better team in Atlanta last Sunday night, which is why I might be troubled as an Eagles fan by the loss. There is a pretty hefty investment in the secondary that got torched there. But that is probably more cause for concern down the road. Right now, Philly is just too fast and too athletic for the Giants.

Eagles 27, Giants 19

New England at Buffalo: The Bills might be able to keep pace with New England for awhile, but how are they going to get stops?

Patriots 35, Bills 26

Miami at Cleveland: Pretty brutal game on paper here. Cleveland bounced back from their week one debacle, but weren't exactly stellar in doing so. Miami is just lost.

Browns 20, Dolphins 15

San Francisco at Cincinnati: I am very impressed with Andy Dalton thus far. Cincinnati as a whole is playing with some energy and spunk...it probably won't last as the season drags and the talent catches up to them, but for now, I think the Bengals are an undervalued team.

Bengals 24, 49ers 21

New York Jets at Oakland: I waffled quite a bit on this one because Oakland is improved and the Jets are good for a dud or two every season. But I don't think Jason Campbell will be effective enough against that Jets secondary. I see the Jets sneaking away with an ugly one.

Jets 19, Raiders 16

Baltimore at St. Louis: It's a bit early to start projecting season awards, but St. Louis is the leader in the clubhouse right now for most disappointing team. The Rams looked terrible on both sides of the ball, and I'm not sure it's going to get much better in the coming weeks.

Ravens 26, Rams 13

Kansas City at San Diego: Not even quite sure how you set a spread for this game after what the Chiefs have done the first two weeks. Getting outscored 89-10 in the NFL is absolutely absurd, and that division title from last year, might as well have been fifty years ago. Perhaps Todd Haley can hang his hat on that playoff appearance, but if he doesn't do something quick, his seat is going to heat up in a hurry.

Chargers 34, Chiefs 17

Atlanta at Tampa Bay: No game calls for an even spread more so than this one. Throught two weeks, I am downright unimpressed with the Falcons. And while Matt Ryan played very well in a big spot last week, given the choice, I'd start my team with Josh Freeman over Ryan.

Bucs 27, Falcons 25

Green Bay at Chicago: My original lean here was towards the Bears...at some point that title defense is going to get difficult for the Packers and it makes some sense that one bump in the road would come ON the road against their rivals. But I just can't pull the trigger..Green Bay is just better.

Packers 24, Bears 22

Arizona at Seattle: Blech. That was no joke last week...Seattle really is THAT bad. They aren't 0-16 bad, so somewhere along the line they are going to pick up a couple wins, but I wouldn't bank on it this week...don't be surprised if the Cardinals have this division wrapped up sometime in mid December.

Cardinals 21, Seahawks 16

Pittsburgh at Indianapolis: This is my little cute pick of the week...not that Indy will win, but that they make a game of it. Just a gut feeling.

Steelers 27, Colts 22

Washington at Dallas: A tricky one. Ultimately, I am unable to separate myself the fan, from myself the prognosticator. I think that on paper, this is a spot where I'd really favor the Redskins to come in and pull off the upset. But the fan in me realizes that the Redskins have dropped 16 of the last 19 games in Big D and that it's been a virtual house of horrors for Washington for two decades now. I expect Washington to play fairly well, but Dallas pulls it out.

Cowboys 24, Redskins 20

Lock of the Week

Texans (+4) at Saints

2. Browns (-1.5) vs. Dolphins
3. Colts (+11) vs. Steelers
4. Bengals (-1.5) vs. 49ers

NFL Picks, Pats, and Pardons (Week Two)

2011-09-15T15:05:00.003-05:00

Last Week: 11-5
Season: 11-5
Redskins: 0-1
Against the Spread: 3-1
Lock of the Week: 0-1

Last Week's Pats: 11-5 is a solid start, but no doubt my prediction of the Bills to win in KC stands out above the rest. I am also rather proud of my hot start against the spread, with all three games I predicted to cover doing so easily.

Last Week's Pardons: Thanks Browns...way to make my first lock of the year go down in the flames. But my biggest pardon goes to the Bears...I had Atlanta pegged as a fairly solid road winner last week, but Chicago throttled them in every fashion. I predicted the Bears to go 8-8 this year and while I'm not ready to back away from that stance quite yet, no team made we rethink my long range predictions after one week more than the Bears.

This Week's Picks

Seattle at Pittsburgh: A shockingly bad performance by the Steelers in week one; almost appeared as if Pottsburgh was still reeling from their loss in the Super Bowl. There may not be a better team for them to "get right" against than Seattle, who would sit dead last on my power rankings list....if I had one.

Steelers 30, Seahawks 13

Baltimore at Tennessee: Lots of talk in pre-season about the Ravens defense losing a step and losing their edge. One absolute dismantling of Pittsburgh later, and I'm feeling pretty good about what they are going to do against a stagnant Titan attack this Sunday.

Ravens 22, Titans 9

Jacksonville at New York Jets: My theme on the Jets in my pre-season analysis was that I was wondering how much dumb luck has played into their success the past two seasons. One week into the 2011 season and the karma train appears to be full steam ahead in NYC. This team does something right to make all of these close games fall their way...I'm just not quite sure yet what it is.

Jets 23, Jags 16

Arizona at Washington: Have to be a tad careful about some over-correction this week. Few, if any, people had the Redskins pegged for more than 5-6 wins this year, but after a pretty impressive opening win against the Giants, the Redskins are getting some positive attention this week. Emotions won't be as high this week in the Capital and Arizona's offense probably poses more of a threat than the Giants did. Having said that, the Arizona defense did get shredded by a rookie QB last week, and I see the Redskins exploiting them again.

Redskins 27, Cardinals 23

Oakland at Buffalo: The Bills win over KC wasn't a total fluke. The Bills have been moving the ball consistently well since Ryan Fitzpatrick took over at QB last season and Stevie Johnson is an unhearalded budding star at WR. Oakland did what they needed to do last week against a lousy Broncos team, but I have my doubts about whether or not they can go cross country and get it done again.

Bills 20, Raiders 17

Tampa Bay at Minnesota: One of the easier games on the board for me this week. Despite their loss last week, I believe in what Tampa has going right now. I can't say the same for the Vikings.

Bucs 26, Vikings 20

Chicago at New Orleans: As I mentioned in my pardons above, I was not a fan of the Bears entering the season, but their strong performance last week caught my attention. I'll stick with the home team here, but if the Bears get this one, I will totally revisit my thoughts on the Bears.

Saints 27, Bears 20

Green Bay at Carolina: Well done, Mr. Newton. Now all you have to do is to do it again versus the defending champs...

Packers 31, Panthers 14

Cleveland at Indianapolis: Very tough call here, even though the clear lean is towards the road team. I was fairly high on the Browns two weeks ago, but that opening loss to the Bengals has my reeling. For a team with little history on which to bank, that type of loss can be a real confidence buster. Of course, the Colts looked absolutely putrid and may be emotionally shot already with the realization that Peyton isn't coming to help anytime soon. No game on the board is more of a coin flip to me this week.

Browns 20, Colts 19

Kansas City at Detroit: I think I have these two teams pegged about as well as any teams in the league. I was right last week and if I'm right again, Chiefs fans will officially be hitting the panic button by 2:30 on Sunday.

Lions 33, Chiefs 17

Dallas at San Francisco: Good spot here for Tony Romo to bounce back from his disasterous fourth quarter last Sunday Night. Being on the road may actually be an advantage for him this week, especially considering he isn't facing a dominating defense. For three quarters, the Dallas offense looked superb and I see them finishing well this Sunday.

Cowboys 28, 49ers 20

Cincinnati at Denver: Kudos to the Bengals who were left for dead in the pre-season and showed up week one and really took it to their cross-state rivals. The Broncos, on the other hand, looked listless and helpless against the Raiders. I really want to pick Cincy here, but if Denver doesn't win this week, I'm not sure when else they will.

Broncos 24, Bengals 21

Houston at Miami: Two teams headed in opposite directions. It's going to be a very long year in south Florida.

Texans 31, Dolphins 20

San Diego at New England: Potential here for a very high quality football game, but you just never know exactly what to expect with the Chargers. We know exactly what to expect with New England, which is why they get my pick.

Patriots 29, Chargers 25

Philadelphia at Atlanta: With Vick's return to Atlanta on a national stage, this has the potential to be quite a show. I was very much struck by the overall team speed the Eagles possess last week; it is an offense fit for the dome. I still have my doubts if they will match up well with the ubber-pyhsical teams in the league, but for the most part, they may not have to...they will just run away from people. This is a huge game for the Falcons in every sense. Very torn, with an ever-so-small lean to the home team.

Falcons 27, Eagles 25

St. Louis at New York Giants: Both of these teams make the "ugh, not good" list from week one. It's stunning how little help the Rams the provided Sam Bradford this off-season and it showed in their week one loss. I see the Rams making this an ugly game and keeping it close, but I just don't think they have the horses to close.

Giants 19, Rams 16

Lock of the Week

Bucs (+3) at Vikings

2. Texans (-3) at Dolphins
3. Cowboys (-3) at 49ers
4. Steelers (-14.5) vs. Seahawks

NFL Picks, Pats, and Pardons (Week One)

2011-09-08T14:51:00.002-05:00

I slacked last year. I dragged. I was a disappointment. Picks, Pats, and Pardons devolved into a simple picks column which was often completed in a rush with little though or creativity invested. It was boring. I didn't even bother making post season picks or comments. My decision this year was either to scrap it altogether or do it right. By virtue of the fact that you are reading this right now, it's pretty clear which option I chose.

2010 was a down and uninspired year for this blog. I hope to do better in 2011.

A brief history before we move on to the week one selections:

2010

Season: 151-105
Post Season: No Picks
Redskins: 8-8
Against the Spread: 34-26
Lock of the Week: 9-6

2009

Season: 168-88
Post Season: 6-5
Redskins: 13-3
Against the Spread: 32-36
Lock of the Week: 5-12

2008

Regular Season: 167-88-1
Post Season 5-6
Record Picking Redskins Games: 7-9
Against the Spread: 33-32-2
Lock of the Week: 10-6-1

2007

Regular Season: 166-90
Post Season: 4-7
Record Picking Redskins Games (including playoffs): 10-7
Against The Spread: 29-33-2
Lock of the Week: 10-6

2006

Regular Season: 146-110
Post Season: 8-3
Record Picking Redskins Games: 8-8

2005

Regular Season: 163-91
Post Season: 6-5
Record Picking Redskins Games (including playoffs): 14-4

Last year was a lousy one for me straight up, but quite successful against the spread. Eight games over .500 for the year will win you some money for sure... 2009 remains my benchmark season when I averaged almost ten picks correct per week...my goal this year is 170, which would put me in a category all by myself...because I created the category.

It's week one, so no Pats or Pardons yet....just Picks:

New Orleans at Green Bay: Since the NFL started the tradition of having the Super Bowl champion host the opening Thursday Night game, the home team has yet to lose; and in most cases it has been a decisive victory. The emotions of the night seem to really stack the odds against the road team. I see the pattern holding this year, although I think the Saints hold their own.

Packers 31, Saints 27

Atlanta at Chicago: Week one is always an easy week for me to make picks. I simply stay true to my overall season predictions. I have the Falcons finishing at 12-4 and the Bears at 8-8; I see no need to get cute on this one.

Falcons 27, Bears 17

Indianapolis at Houston: I'm not a big fan of how the NFL has fallen into some scheduling patterns lately. I don't like the idea of having the same opening game in the same city two years in a row. It's boring and even teeters a bit on what is fair. That said, this is one of the easiest picks on the week. I had the Texans pegged here even with a 100% healthy Peyton Manning. Without him, it gets ugly.

Texans 34, Colts 13

Buffalo at Kansas City: Every year there is one team I just don't like. This year, Kansas City bears that badge of honor. The Chiefs pre-season was a borderline disaster and they won't be sneaking up on anyone this year either. Chiefs fans can mock me all they want, but I'm not sold on their team or their QB. This is my upset of the week.

Bills 20, Chiefs 17

Tennessee at Jacksonville: Not much about either of these teams I find particularly interesting in 2011 unless they both decided to give their rookie QB's some starts. Both the Titans and Jags are playing it safe, keeping their rookies on the bench in favor or Matt Hasslebeck and Luke McCown respectively. The Jags continue to be one of the only teams in the league that struggles to get fans in the seats....this week, I can't say I blame them.

Titans 19, Jags 16

Cincinnati at Cleveland: I said in my pre-season predictions that the Browns could get off to a hot start this year behind a weak opening schedule. It doesn't get any easier than playing the Bengals...at home....starting a rookie QB. This is literally the easiest game any team in the NFL will get all year. If Cleveland doesn't pounce this week, it's going to be a long year in Cleveland.

Browns 26, Bengals 10

Philadelphia at St. Louis: Gotta like the direction the Rams are heading, but I'm still a bit flabbergasted as to why WR wasn't a bigger priority for them in the off-season. Sam Bradford has the goods for sure, but he can't throw it to himself. Not having people open leads to the QB holding the ball longer which increases the chance for injury, etc. Philly is going to have an attacking defense this year and their stellar CB's should have no trouble blanketing the Rams WR's. Could be a long opening week for Sammy.

Eagles 28, Rams 16

Pittsburgh at Baltimore: Nothing better than starting the season with a bloodbath. It hurts to WATCH these two teams play. This is throwback rivalry that Mike Curtis and Jack Lambert would be proud to participate in. I gave the a slight edge to Baltimore in my season picks, so I'll lean that way this week as well.

Ravens 17, Steelers 16

Detroit at Tampa Bay: Two years ago, this match-up was a national joke. Now, I think we'll be seeing our two NFC wild card teams going at it on what promises to be a sweltering day in Florida. Toss a coin here, but I think the Lions have a slightly more dynamic attack and I see them winning a thriller late.

Lions 24, Bucs 20

Minnesota at San Diego: There are a handful of worse teams in the NFL, but I find no team more unispiring this year than the Vikings. San Diego feasts.

Chargers 35, Vikings 17

New York Giants at Washington: No game gave me more problems this week. Perhaps my inherent homerism blinds me to certain things, but I see this as a very tough call. No doubt the Giants are more talented-- at least in some very critical areas. But the Redskins have improved, they are at home, and the Giants are dealing with an almost absurd amount of injuries on defense that could take them several weeks to figure out. Washington catches the Giants at a good time, but are the Redskins good enough to take advantage? The Redskins haven't beaten the Giants since December of 2007 and a big part of that is because they haven't been able to stop Eli Manning. This game is coin flip that I wouldn't touch in Vegas with a ten foot pole. With that being the case, I'll side with the more proven squad.

Giants 23, Redskins 20

Carolina at Arizona: Ken Whisenhunt couldn't ask for much more than to be at home week one against a team with a rookie coach and rookie QB-- oh, and said team also happened to have the worst record in the league last year. This is a good spot for Kevin Kolb to get his feet wet in desert (is that an oxymoron?).

Cardinals 24, Panthers 14

Seattle at San Francisco: The 49ers, Seahawks, and Cardinals better win the games they play against one another because I think other wins on the schedule will be hard to come by. I like Jim Harbaugh to win his NFL coaching debut.

49ers 22, Seahawks 13

Dallas at New York Jets: I see some trendy picks leaning Dallas this week...and I could see that. I'm just not sure what to expect from the Cowboys and I could absolutely see the Jets taking a step back. I do wonder if the bravado coming from New York is going to wear thin sometime soon. So I'm pretty mixed up on this game, but I'll lean on the home team partly behind the emotions of the 9/11 ceremonies.

Jets 21, Cowboys 17

New England at Miami: The NFL should have done better with their opening Monday double-header... this game will be over by halftime.

Patriots 37, Dolphins 14

Oakland at Denver: This game won't be over at halftime, but will anyone be awake?

Broncos 27, Raiders 24

Against the Spread

Lock of the Week

Browns (-6.5) vs. Bengals

2. Eagles (-4) at Rams
3. Bills (+6) at Chiefs
4. Patriots (-7) at Dolphins

2011 NFL Predictions

2011-09-07T21:23:00.003-05:00

AFC East

New England Patriots 12-4: New England is always the safest and easiest pick on the board. It's a testament to "the Patriot Way" that for a decade now you can pick them to win the Super Bowl every year and not look like a fool. Having said that, they haven't won the Super Bowl in seven years and have only made it back once since then. They are far from a lock and ended last season with a thud in the playoffs. But I am believer in what they do and I like the improvements they've made on defense.

New York Jets 10-6: How long can they keep it up? How long can the ultra-cocky coach get his stitch to stick? Rex Ryan has gotten results; he is already one of the most successful coaches in Jets history. But they've also caught a few breaks along the way- winning a slew of close games and most notably getting a gift from the Colts in 2009 when they sat their starters in the second half which allowed the Jets to rally an clinch a playoff berth. Ryan has done a wonderful job, but I do wonder if might have a bit too much of his Dad in him. Buddy Ryan talked a big game and generally produced at a similar rate. But there was always something
holding his teams back and eventually his approach grew tiresome. I like the
Jets to make another good run this year, but I see them regressing a tad.

Buffalo Bills 5-11: Not as bad offensively as you'd think. Ryan Fitzpatrick has played rather well in Buffalo and Stevie Johnson is a budding star at WR. But the Bills have missed badly on recent high draft choices which has left them short on talent in several key areas. And I'm not sure Chan Gailey is the coach you want trying to coach around those talent gaps. Bills will generally be competitive but they won't win many games.

Miami Dolphins 4-12: Things looked pretty promising two years ago, but since then the roster has sort of spiraled into a no man's land of aging veterans and unproven youngsters. There just isn't much to see here: a "blah" QB situation and no real playmakers on defense. The Dolphins may very well find themselves at the top of the Andrew Luck sweepstakes by seasons end.

AFC North

Baltimore Ravens 11-5: What's missing? What is required for Baltimore to get passed Pittsburgh and win the AFC? I believe it's time to let Joe Flacco loose. Because Baltimore can still defend and because they run the ball so well, I think there is a natural tendency towards conservativsm. But they have a highly gifted QB who is now entering the prime of his career. Time to take off the shackles and open things up.

Pittsburgh Steelers 10-6: I don't see Pittsburgh as much better or much worse than last year; and considering they won the AFC I suppose that would be considered a good thing if you are a Steelers fan. But I think Baltimore got a smidge better and may sneak by the Steelers this year.

Cleveland Browns 7-9: Things are looking up for the Brownies. There are finally enough pieces in place for Browns fans to be legitimately excited about the 2011 season and beyond. The schedule is favorable early and brutal late. Don't be surprised at all if the Browns start hot out of the gates.

Cincinnati Bengals 3-13: It's always hard to start the rebuilding process. It's even harder when you are rebuilding something that wasn't even that great in the first place. The Carson Palmer-Ochocinco era in Cincy is over and it yielded middling results at best. Now, the Bengals are starting over with a rookie QB, rookie WR, and loads of young and/or unproven talent. Is Marvin Lewis in this for the long haul?

AFC South

Houston Texans 11-5: I was making this pick regardless of Peyton Manning's injury status. Now that words filters in that he is out for week one and possibly more, it only solidifies my thought that this is the year for Houston. If not now, when? The offense has horses everywhere and they addressed some major holes on defense in the off-season. The pieces are there; it's time for Gary Kubiak to put them together.

Tennessee Titans 8-8: Better than you think, but not great. Jake Locker was impressive in the pre-season and it will be interesting to see what it takes to get him on the field. I see average results coming from Matt Hasslebeck and the offense, so I'm not sure new coach Mike Munchak will a great "reason" to make a switch. But you know everyone in the organization is anxious to see what Locker can do.

Indianpolis Colts 8-8: I had the Colts pegged for 10-6 and second place behind Houston even with a 100% healthy Peyton Manning. Without him, things could come crashing down quickly. I'm not a huge fan of the direction Indy has taken in the post Tony Dungy era, but Manning has held it all together. Now, many of the areas of weakness are going to get exposed.

Jacksonville Jaguars 4-12: When you cut your starting QB less than week prior to the opener in favor of Luke McCown, you are officially lost at sea. I wrote in this space last year that 2010 would be the swan song for Jack Del Rio. Perhaps I was just a year early?

AFC West

San Diego Chargers 10-6: A very trendy pick, as always. But think about this...in 2010 the Chargers had the #1 offense, the #1 defense, and one of the easiest schedules in the league, yet they still managed to miss the playoffs. And thus is the refrain for most of Norv Turner's coaching career. The numbers simply don't match the results...at least not consistently. I love Phillip Rivers and I think the MVP talk is warranted, but I simply don't trust this team to get it done when it counts.

Kansas City Chiefs 8-8: Pre-season standings don't matter, but pre-season evaluation DOES matter. And I'm not sure anyone looked more shaky in the pre-season than Kansas City. I think they caught lightning in a bottle to an extent last year and I'm still not 100% sold on Matt Casell as a consistent winner in the NFL. I see the Chiefs taking a step back in 2011.

Oakland Raiders 7-9: There are certain things I like about this Oakland team, but not enough to make me think they will do any better than .500. Jason Campbell is proving to be one of those maddening QB's that is too good to be a #2, but maybe not quite good enough to be a #1.

Denver Broncos 6-10: I'm not a huge fan of hiring a coach immediately coming off a failed season. I like John Fox and overall respect what he did in Carolina. But the past few years were rough and I'd prefer to see a coach step back and take a breath before jumping right back into the fray. The roster seems a bit all over the place, although I think Von Miller is going to be a star.

Playoffs

Ravens over Jets
Steelers over Chargers

Patriots over Steelers
Texans over Ravens

Patriots over Texans

NFC East

Philadelphia Eagles 11-5: Dream team? I'm not willing to go that far, but there is absolutely no doubt that Philly is loaded with names and loaded with speed on offense. The offensive line is really the only major question from a pure talent staindpoint, but everything they do happens so fast, you wonder if it will even matter. I'm also not quite ready to annoint Michael Vick as a reborbn star. He exploded in the early to mid part of last season like something you see on a Madden video game. But he leveled out down the stretch and wasn't overly effective in their playoff loss to Green Bay. Philly is intruiging, but not a lock.

New York Giants 9-7: Pretty much a disaster of an off-season for the Giants. Free agent defections combined with crushing injuries has the GMen limping into the season. Having said that, they are still strong at QB and along the offensive line... and those are good places to be strong. I see Eli carrying them early until the rest of the team rounds into shape. But ultimately, I see them falling a game short of the playoffs.

Dallas Cowboys 8-8: No team is more of a mystery to me than the Cowboys. There is enough talent there for them to win, but it's not such an overwhelming amount that it's any sort of forgone conclusion. I'm just not sure where this team stands on the leadership, coaching, intangibles front. Jason Garrett did a nice job in relief last year, but being the head honcho from the get-go is a different story. Sometimes I pick teams to go 8-8 when I think they are incredibly average and sometimes I pick teams to go 8-8 when I don't have a clue.

Washington Redskins 7-9: The Redskins could get eaten up down the stretch this year with four of their final five games against the Giants, Eagles, Patriots, and Jets. But before they hit that stretch, I see Washington turining a few heads and gaining respect around the league. The defense has received a significant talent boost and Mike Shannahan WILL find a way to run the ball effectively. Rex Grossman most likely isn't a longterm answer of course, but he may be a good stopgap option for a team that appears to finally be heading in the right direction.

NFC North

Green Bay Packers 11-5: I came SO close to picking the Packers second in the division, but after looking closely at who is coming back, there really is no legitimate reason to think this team can't repeat. Aaron Rodgers is not only incredible, he is probably just entering the ultimate peak years of his career. He may very well exceed the lofty expectations attached to him. The only question revolves around how difficult it is to repeat and how things never seem to go quite as smoothly for the defending champs in the "breaks" category. I do think we could see a slight slide from them defenisvely minus Cullen Jenkins and adding another year of wear to Charles Woodsen. But when it's said and done, the road to the Lombardi trophy goes through Green Bay, and that looks like a nasty road trip for whoever it may be.

Detroit Lions 10-6: Just love them. Love them so much it took everything I had to NOT put them as the #1 overall seed in the NFC. Jim Schwartz is the right guy. And he has an absolute star to build around with Suh. If Matthew Stafford stays healthy the Lions could be a fanstasy football managers dream. Lions fans have waited long enough. This team has the goods.

Chicago Bears 8-8: Jay Cutler took too much heat for his sideline body language last year, but I still get the feeling that the Bears were more lucky than good in 2010. The good year/bad year rotation has also been a pattern under Lovie Smith and I think it continues in 2011.

Minnesota Vikings 5-11: Not sure where they are going are what they are doing. They reached for Christrian Ponder in the draft and brought in an unmotivated and past-his-prime Donovan McNabb to be his mentor. The defense took a major fall from grace in 2010 and I don't see anything on paper to indicate it will be much better this year. I think Leslie Frazier has earned this opportunity, but I don't think he has been dealt a quality hand.

NFC South

Atlanta Falcons 12-4: As Green Bay was dismantling the Falcons in the playoffs last year, a thought quickly raced through my brain: Are the Falcons the NFC version of the Chargers? It's a bit too early in the development of this team to make that proclomation, but my gut tells me that may be where they are headed. The Falcons are pretty loaded overall and Julio Jones adds a truly dynamic dimension to the offense. I have a hard time seeing them doing any worse than 10-6 even if things don't go smoothly. But I also have this feeling that the Falcons could be an annual January disappointment.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10-6: The Saints are by far and away the popular pick in this spot (if not first) but I tend to give the Bucs a slight advantage. I'm not sure why Josh Freeman is so consistently overlooked, but his season last year was every bit as impressive as year two was for Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, etc. Freeman is a pocket passer who is fully capable of escaping the rush and making plays with his feet. He is a perfect combination of what traditional wins in the NFL and that added boost of athleticism to help make plays when things break down. This team is young, but they are tough and have a great young player leading the charge.

New Orleans Saints 10-6: It's a fantastic division and one of these top three teams is most likely going to be left out. Most people think that team is Tampa, but I'm leaning New Orleans because I'm not convinced they've solved their issues on defense. Drew Brees is going to do his thing, but I see a few too many shootouts in his future. 10-6 is a fine record, it just may not be good enough in the NFL's best division.

Carolina Panthers 4-12: New coach + rookie QB = free pass on the season. Cam Newton does a have running game to lean on, but not much else.

NFC West

St. Louis Rams 9-7: The division is on a silver platter for the Rams. It is weak and they are the one team in the division with a clear "up" arrow. Sam Bradford was impressive in his rookie season and he should be even more comfortable now. It's a tad surprising that the Rams didn't address their issues at WR more in the off-season though...

Arizona Cardinals 7-9: Good home team. If anyone has a shot to hang with the Rams I think it's Arizona. I liked the Kevin Kolb trade. He isn't a sure thing, but he did enough in Philly to warrant a chance and he's less of a risk than a draft pick would be.

San Francisco 49ers 6-10: Something about Jim Harbaugh tells me he is going to succeed in the NFL, but right now, the cupboard is bare. I'm not sure any team in the league is a more logical landing spot for Andrew Luck than SF, but will the 49ers be BAD enough to get him?

Seattle Seahawks 5-11: Got lucky last year, winning the division at 8-8. Absolutely no reason to be excited about Tarvaris Jackson, Charlie Whitehurst, or pretty much anything else on this team.

Playoffs

Eagles over Bucs
Lions over Rams

Falcons over Lions
Packers over Eagles

Packers over Falcons

I have some pretty risky picks this year, but I did follow the chalk on my Super Bowl prediction. New England and Green Bay are easy picks, but they are also smart ones. Green Bay is a team just reaching it's peak and New England is a winning organization that may have found the right mix to take a step forward in 2011.

As for the game itself, I'll give a slight edge to Tom Brady getting one more ring.

Patriots 27, Packers 24

What the NBA All Star Teams SHOULD Look Like

2011-02-03T22:18:00.002-06:00

Fan voting is stupid. Always has been and always will be across the board in all sports (although the East starters are spot on this year). Teams promote ballot-stuffing, and you wind up with ridiculous things like Yao Ming being named a starter despite playing about two more minutes in the NBA this year than I have.

But the coaches aren't much better; always deferring to veterans and players on winning teams.

Without further ado, here is what your 2010-11 All-Star rosters SHOULD look like based on what we've thus far.

East

Starters

Derrick Rose: Right now, he gets my MVP vote just ahead of Lebron, so it goes without saying he should be starting.

Dwayne Wade: Another easy selection; after some cohesion issues with Lebron early on, Wade has been stellar; an extremely good defender.

Lebron James: Despite what I think of him as a person (sham) or how I feel about his competitive spirit (weak), there is no arguing that Lebron is a freak of nature on the court and he is on the very short list of greatest basketball players alive. His all-around game continues to astound.

Amare Stoudemire: I admit, I thought he would be a major bust in NY. I thought that signing not being followed up by the signing of Lebron would make the Knicks look foolish. But Amare has shined in Mike D'Antoni's system once again and New York is finally relevant for the first time in a decade.

Dwight Howard: Easy choice here, but it does bother me that his offensive game hasn't improved on bit from this same stage three years ago.

Reserves (in order I would choose them)

Rajon Rondo: Has surpassed Chris Paul in my eyes as the best "non-scoring" PG in the league. Great floor general, rebounder, and defender. Gives the aging Celtics a youthful swagger. A fantastic player and easy AS choice.

Paul Pierce: Just keeps ticking...has turned himself into an excellent defender, and still ranks as one of the best shooters and closers in the game.

Josh Smith: Having a better year than his teammate Joe Johnson (who made the team). Smith probably continues to shoot the ball too often, but he is an athletic freak and possibly the best rebounding non-big man in the game. Having arguably his best year and deserves an AS nod.

Stephen Jackson: No one plays Lebron better one on one and that's because Jackson may very well be the best on-ball defender in the NBA. He is a gritty player who is effective on both ends of the floor. Overlooked playing for the "blah" Bobcats.

Al Horford: Quiet, consistent, effective. Not exactly my defintion of an "all star," but the pickings are a bit slim at this point in the East, and Horford is a fine choice to come off the bench.

Ray Allen: I rolled my eyes when I saw he made the real team, but after checking the numbers, it would be hard to NOT put him in. Still not sure I've ever seen a better pure shooter...Allen delivers daggers for the best team in the East and deserves yet another trip to the AS game.

Elton Brand: This spot came down between Brand and Chris Bosh. Despite scoring numbers below Bosh, I chose Brand because he is virtually the only thing the Sixers have inside and he is helping keep them alive in the playoff race. He takes a beating on most nights because no one else is there to absorb any blows, yet he is putting up nice numbers for a surprisingly competitive team.

Who is starting for my team that isn't starting for the real AS team?: No one

Who made my AS team that didn't make the real AS team?: Josh Smith, Stephen Jackson, and Elton Brand.

Who did I cut from the real AS team?: Chris Bosh, Joe Johnson, and Kevin Garnett.

West

Starters

Russell Westbrook: Overshadowed by Kevin Durant, Westbrook has emerged as the best and most complete PG in the West and will rival Derrick Rose for years to come. Incredibly fast, aggresive, and a great rebounder for his position.

Kobe Bryant: Over the past year or so, Kobe has finally begun to show some signs of age; however, he is still a force in the league and remains the best clutch player until someone else clearly emerges.

Dirk Nowitzki: It seems as if Dirk should be slowing down, but if anything, he seems to have improved this season. In many ways, Dirk has saved the Maverick franchise.

Kevin Durant: Go ahead and write his name down in this spot for the next 7-8 years.

Kevin Love: Not only does he deserve a spot on the team, he deserves to start. This was an absurb all-star snub. Love is scoring almost 22 points per game while putting up rebounding numbers we haven't seen in years. His offensive rebounding prowess in particular is astonishing. On top of everything else, he is also extremely effecient. This isn't a cute choice, it's an easy one.

Reserves

Carmelo Anthony: I'd take Dirk over Carmelo this year, but Melo is still an explosive scorer, that makes Denver a potentially dangerous team. Having said that, in his career, Melo has made it out of the first round...once. Any team looking to deal for Melo should be wary of making him the "man."

Deron Williams: As long as Williams is running the show, the Jazz will remain highly competitive. I think the final verdict on Williams vs. Chris Paul is in....and the winner is DWill.

Manu Ginobili: I believe Mannu has put together a pretty compelling argument for the Hall of Fame. Healthy again, he is the one cog that stands out in the otherwise nondescript way the Spurs go about their business.

Zach Randolph: Check the numbers...having a brilliant year scoring and on the boards. One of the best power forwards in the game, who has a bit of a throwback style with excellent mid-range scoring ability. He also seems to have shaken his rep as being petulant and uncoachable. Grizzlies are closing in on the 8 seed and it's due in large part to Randolph's fantastic season.

Blake Griffin: I'd put him on this team just for his highlights, but he's also managed to become a legitimate player beyond making Sportscenter's Top 10 every night. He has a long way to go before he join the elite club, but the sky is the limit for this beast.

Tony Parker: Tough call between Parker and Paul, but I went with Parker because he is a much more capable scorer and probably an equal defender. The Spurs record is also hard to overlook.

Tyson Chandler: This one might get ripped, because he only averages 10 PPG, but anyone who has followed the Mavs can tell you what a difference he has made for that team. Tireless worker, rebounder, and dominant defender.

Who is starting for my team that isn't starting for the real AS team?: Kevin Love, Russell Westbrook.

Who made my AS team that didn't make the real AS team?: Kevin Love, Zach Randolph, Tony Parker, and Tyson Chandler.

Who did I cut from the real AS team?: Yao Ming, Tim Duncan, Chris Paul, and Pau Gasol.

NFL Picks: Week 17

2011-01-01T16:54:00.002-06:00

Last Week: 10-6
Season: 140-100
Redskins: 8-7
Against the Spread: NO PICKS LAST WEEK (Season: 32-24; Lock: 8-6)

Week 17

Saints 23, Bucs 20
Ravens 31, Bengals 17
Falcons 30, Panthers 10
Steelers 20, Browns 16
Lions 27, Vikings 23
Chiefs 20, Raiders 17
Jets 17, Bills 15
Patriots 21, Dolphins 17
Redskins 23, Giants 20
Eagles 26, Cowboys 17
Colts 33, Titans 17
Texans 30, Jaguars 20
Packers 27, Bears 13
Broncos 29, Chargers 27
49ers 24, Cardinals 17
Seahawks 19, Rams 16

Against the Spread

Lock: Texans (-3) vs. Jaguars

2. Redskins (+4) vs. Giants
3. Broncos (+3.5) vs. Chargers
4. Eagles (-3) vs. Cowboys

NFL Picks: Week 15

2010-12-16T09:03:00.002-06:00

Last Week: 10-6
Season: 122-86
Redskins: 6-7
Against the Spread: No Picks Last Week (Season: 30-22; Lock: 8-5)

Week 15

Chargers 24, 49ers 17
Dolphins 27, Bills 20
Browns 17, Bengals 15
Bucs 16, Lions 13
Colts 26, Jaguars 23
Panthers 20, Cardinals 17
Ravens 27, Saints 21
Giants 22, Eagles 20
Chiefs 23, Rams 20
Cowboys 28, Redskins 16
Texans 30, Titans 20
Seahawks 24, Falcons 21
Steelers 20, Jets 13
Raiders 31, Broncos 17
Patriots 30, Packers 21
Vikings 27, Bears 23

Against the Spread

Lock: Seahawks (+7) vs. Falcons

2. Ravens (-1.5) vs. Saints
3. Raiders (-6.5) vs. Broncos
4. 49ers (+9.5) at Chargers

NFL Picks: Week 13

2010-12-02T12:13:00.002-06:00

Last Week: 12-4
Season: 102-74
Redskins: 5-6
Against the Spread: 2-2 (Season: 28-20; Lock: 7-5)

Week 13

Eagles 30, Texans 23
Vikings 27, Bills 13
Bears 22, Lions 16
Giants 26, Redskins 13
Titans 16, Jaguars 14
Dolphins 24, Browns 20
Chiefs 34, Broncos 19
Packers 20, 49ers 15
Saints 31, Bengals 21
Chargers 29, Raiders 20
Cardinals 23, Rams 20
Seahawks 27, Panthers 17
Falcons 28, Bucs 21
Colts 33, Cowboys 20
Ravens 20, Steelers 17
Patriots 19, Jets 17

Against the Spread

Lock: Vikings (-5.5) vs. Bills

2. Colts (-5) vs. Cowboys
3. Seahawks (-6) vs. Panthers
4. Cardinals (+3.5) vs. Rams

NFL Picks: Week 12

2010-11-25T08:40:00.002-06:00

Last Week: 10-6
Season: 90-70
Redskins: 4-6
Against the Spread: 3-1 (Season: 26-18; Lock 7-4)

Week 12

Patriots 31, Lions 24
Saints 30, Cowboys 23
Jets 27, Bengals 10
Vikings 27, Redskins 17
Steelers 26, Bills 17
Browns 28, Panthers 13
Texans 34, Titans 20
Giants 26, Jaguars 21
Falcons 30, Packers 27
Chiefs 22, Seahawks 19
Dolphins 20, Raiders 17
Ravens 24, Bucs 10
Eagles 30, Bears 16
Broncos 27, Rams 20
Colts 31, Chargers 28
Cardinals 23, 49ers 20

Against the Spread

Lock: Eagles (-3.5) at Bears

2. Ravens (-7.5) vs. Bucs
3. Jets (-9) vs. Bengals
4. Browns (-10) vs. Panthers

NFL Picks: Week 11

2010-11-18T12:34:00.002-06:00

Last Week: 7-7
Season: 80-64
Redskins: 4-5
Against the Spread: 2-2 (Season: 23-17; Lock: 7-3)

Week 11

Dolphins 23, Bears 17
Jets 24, Texans 17
Browns 19, Jaguars 17
Bengals 26, Bills 21
Chiefs 31, Cardinals 14
Cowboys 23, Lions 20
Steelers 31, Raiders 16
Ravens 27, Panthers 9
Vikings 26, Packers 23
Titans 30, Redskins 17
Falcons 29, Rams 13
49ers 21, Bucs 15
Saints 35, Seahawks 21
Patriots 27, Colts 23
Eagles 30, Giants 27
Chargers 38, Broncos 27

Against the Spread:

Lock: Dolphins (-1) vs. Bears

2. Chiefs (-8) vs. Cardinals
3. Steelers (-7.5) vs. Raiders
4. Ravens (-10.5) vs. Panthers

NFL Picks: Week 10

2010-11-11T20:16:00.002-06:00

Last Week: 8-5
Season: 73-57
Redskins: 3-5
Against the Spread: 2-2 (Season: 21-15; Lock: 6-3

Week 10

Falcons 20, Ravens 17
Lions 23, Bills 19
Jets 20, Browns 13
Titans 24, Dolphins 23
Bucs 21, Panthers 12
Colts 30, Bengals 20
Texans 29, Jaguars 23
Vikings 27, Bears 21
Broncos 26, Chiefs 23
49ers 19, Rams 16
Cardinals 25, Seahawks 24
Giants 33, Cowboys 20
Steelers 22, Patriots 20
Eagles 27, Redskins 20

Against the Spread

Lock of the Week: Jets (-3) at Browns

2. Texans (+ 1.5) at Jags
3. Colts (-7) vs. Bengals
4. Lions (+3) at Bills

NFL Picks: Week Nine

2010-11-06T23:25:00.002-05:00

Last Week: 6-7
Season: 65-52
Redskins: 3-5
Against the Spread: 3-1 (Season 19-13; Lock 5-3)

Week 9

Bills 23, Bears 20
Ravens 27, Dolphins 20
Patriots 24, Browns 16
Lions 26, Jets 24
Eagles 28, Colts 24
Texans 33, Chargers 30
Chiefs 19, Raiders 17
Giants 29, Seahawks 20
Saints 22, Panthers 17
Falcons 35, Bucs 17
Vikings 34, Cardinals 13
Packers 31, Cowboys 16
Steelers 30, Bengals 20

Lock of the Week: Packers (-7) vs. Cowboys

2. Lions (+5) vs. Jets
3. Falcons (-9) vs. Bucs
4. Vikings (-8) vs. Cardinals
3.

NFL Picks: Week 8

2010-10-30T22:09:00.002-05:00

Last Week: 8-6
Season: 59-45
Redskins: 2-5
Against the Spread: 3-1 (Season: 16-12; Lock 4-3)

Week 8

Buffalo at Kansas City: If you've followed my Mom's strategy and picked against the Bills each week in your Survivor League, then you are most likely still alive and well (they did have a bye week). And while the Bills came extremely close to pulling off the upset in Baltimore last week, I think my Mom's strategy pays dividends for at least one more week.

Chiefs 29, Bills 21

Jacksonville at Dallas: Lots of ugliness to be displayed in Dallas on Sunday...especially from the quarterback position. The Cowboys season ended Monday Night when they lost to the Giants and lost Tony Romo for the season, but the Jaguars aren't good enough to take advantage of the mess in Big D right now.

Cowboys 24, Jaguars 17

Carolina at St. Louis: Mild upset pick here. Panthers may have a tad of momentum following their first win of the season and the Rams might be reeling a bit off of a heartbreaker in Tampa.

Panthers 19, Rams 17

Miami at Cincinnati: Really tough call; Dolphins are the better team, but this is shaping up as a desperation game for the Bengals-- they can pretty much forget about catching the Ravens or Steelers if they drop this one. A very shaky vote for the home team.

Bengals 23, Dolphins 20

Washington at Detroit: The records mean very little here. Washington is 4-3 because they've been extremely tough, opportunistic, and even a bit lucky through their first seven games. Detroit, on the other hand is a tough-luck 1-5, having played a very difficult schedule while being dealt some unlucky bounces. These teams are very close overall, so it's probably wise to favor the well rested home team here.

Lions 27, Redskins 17

Denver at San Francisco: The folks over in London haven't exactly been treated to the NFL's best since the series started a few years ago, but this match-up is borderline embarrassing in terms of displaying the NFL prodcut to a global audience. One team can't stop anybody and the other can't score, and in the end, they both stink. Very little to get excited about here. Perhaps Troy Smith can become to London what David Hasslehoff is to Germany?

Broncos 25, 49ers 21

Green Bay at New York Jets: No team in the league has garnered more disrespect from me starting in the pre-season more so than the Jets. After week one, I looked brilliant. Since then, they've made me look like a fool. The Packers, on the other hand (My choice to win the NFC), have looked shaky at best during their 4-3 start. For one more week I'm going to stick to my pre-season guns and call for the upset, but I may just be stubborn.

Packers 20, Jets 17

Tennessee at San Diego: This could be the "final dagger" game for the Chargers in 2010. They have managed to rebound from poor starts in recent years, but 2-6 may be too much to overcome. I have a feeling they find a way to stay relevant for a few more weeks.

Chargers 27, Titans 20

Tampa Bay at Arizona: Blech.

Cardinals 28, Bucs 16

Minnesota at New England: Trending on some upsets here, and this would be the biggest one by far considering the way these two teams have played in recent weeks. New England has voided their team of big names and older vets and they now resemble the Patriot teams of the early 2000's-- a team that underwhelms you with talent, but finds ways to beat you on Sundays. Minnesota might be best served for Brett Favre to sit this one out...partly so he can get healthy, but also partly because they might need to find out exactly how much of the problem he's been thus far. Playing a hunch here.

Vikings 26, Patriots 23

Seattle at Oakland: Not sure which trend to go with here...Seattle's struggles on the road or the Raiders inability to handle prosperity. Both are on the line this week...

Raiders 20, Seahawks 16

Pittsburgh at New Orleans: Gotta love the due. Both teams fit the mold right now. The Steelers are due for a loss, coming off their controversial win in Miami last week and the Saints are due for a win coming off a loss to the lowly Browns and a lakcluster start in general. This game doesn't mean a ton to Pittsburgh considering the standings and the fact that this is against an NFC opponent on the road. This is a much bigger game for New Orleans. The due and the trends point to New Orleans, but perhaps what goes on in between the lines in most important...and in that case, Pittsburgh is simply the better team.

Steelers 27, Saints 23

Houston at Indianapolis: I like the Texans, but they allowed themselves to get punched in the mouth twice this year when people started to feel really good about them, and that has me leary entering this rematch of week one. Definite lean to Manning and company to even the score.

Colts 30, Texans 27

Against the Spread

Lock of the Week: Raiders (-2.5) vs. Seahawks

2. Packers (+6) at Jets
3. Vikings (+6) at Patriots
4. Lions (-2.5) vs. Redskins

NFL Picks: Week 7

2010-10-21T21:12:00.002-05:00

Last Week: 9-5
Season: 51-39
Redskins: 2-4
Against the Spread: 3-1 (Season: 13-11; Lock 3-3)

Week 7

Saints 34, Browns 17
Chiefs 22, Jaguars 10
Titans 19, Eagles 16
Falcons 27, Bengals 20
Bears 23, Redskins 19
Dolphins 21, Steelers 20
Bucs 24, Rams 16
Ravens 30, Bills 13
49ers 19, Panthers 15
Seahawks 26, Cardinals 20
Broncos 24, Raiders 21
Patriots 27, Chargers 22
Packers 28, Vikings 24
Cowboys 27, Giants 24

Lock of the Week: Packers (-2.5) vs. Vikings

2. Raiders (+8.5) at Broncos
3. Ravens (-13) vs. Bills
4. Falcons (-3.5) vs. Bengals

NFL Picks: Week 6

2010-10-16T23:20:00.002-05:00

Last Week: 6-8
Season: 42-34
Redskins: 1-4
Against the Spread: 1-3 (Season: 10-10; Lock 2-3)

Week 5
Falcons 24, Eagles 21
Steelers 27, Browns 9
Bears 23, Seahawks 17
Giants 26, Lions 22
Patriots 20, Ravens 17
Chargers 30, Rams 13
Packers 28, Dolphins 24
Saints 31, Bucs 20
Texans 27, Chiefs 17
Broncos 22, Jets 19
49ers 17, Raiders 16
Vikings 26, Cowboys 23
Colts 29, Redskins 24
Titans 24, Jaguars 17

Against the Spread

Lock Vikings (-2) vs. Cowboys

2. Titans (-3) at Jaguars
3. Lions (+11) at Giants
4. Falcons (+3) at Eagles

NFL Picks: Week 5

2010-10-09T23:07:00.002-05:00

Last Week: 11-3
Season: 36-26
Redskins: 0-4
Against the Spread: 3-1 (Season: 9-7; Lock 2-2)

Jacksonville at Buffalo: Jags are a really weird team, almost no middle-ground with them. I expect more of a revert to what we saw in weeks two and three rather than the nice display they threw out there last week.

Bills 19, Jaguars 17

Kansas City at Indianapolis: The Kansas City Chiefs are the only undefeated team remaining in the league. This will hold true until approx. 3:00 p.m. Sunday.

Colts 30, Chiefs 20

Tampa Bay at Cincinnati: Predictable loss last week for a Benglas team that seems to lack an extra gear. Expect a bounc-back this week, but this will be a frustrating season for Bengals fan who are hoping to see their team reach a new level.

Bengals 24, Bucs 13

Green Bay at Washington: Normally, I'm pretty good at picking Redskins games, but I'm 0-4 this year so clearly I've yet to get a read on this bunch. The Packers are more of the story here anyway though. I'm beginning to think that perhaps the Packers aren't nearly as good as I thought they'd be this year and they are just stuck in the muck fighting with everyone else in the NFC-- at this point I see no reason to believe they are going to simply flip a switch and run away with anything. Their mounting injuries on defense aren't helping matters.

Redskins 27, Packers 24

St. Louis at Detroit: Lions are as hard-luck an 0-4 as it gets. They get their first W on Sunday.

Lions 26, Rams 17

Chicago at Carolina: The NFL is a "week to week" league which allows teams to erase an awful loss rather quickly. However, the putrid display of football the Bears carried out last Sunday night continues to linger in my mind as one of the all-time worst efforts I've ever seen from an offensive unit in a football game-- conjuring memories of the 1992 Seahawks (check the numbers). Now, with Jay Cutler missing this week's game, I don't think the Bears will be able to simply recapture what they had in weeks 1-3.

Panthers 17, Bears 14

New York Giants at Houston: Possibly the toughest call on the board this week. Both teams rebounding nicely last week following disappointing efforts prior. Just can't get a read on the Giants at all, and therefore, I'll stick with the home team.

Texans 31, Giants 28

Denver at Baltimore: The Broncos are no great shakes, but I must admit that I've probably slighted them so far this year in terms of overall respect. You can't run from the numbers...Kyle Orton leads a potent passing attack, which is as shocking as it is true. I like Baltimore to get the job done this week, but Denver has caught my attention a bit.

Ravens 23, Broncos 19

Atlanta at Cleveland: It wasn't pretty, but I found the Falcons win over the 49ers last week to be fairly impressive. Down 14-0 early, Atlanta hung around despite not having their "best stuff" and stole the game away at the end-- it's what good teams do....the Browns have been competitive all year and I wouldn't be surprised at all if they snuck up on Atlanta this week, but I'm picking the Falcons to win by a TD or more.

Falcons 24, Browns 16

New Orleans at Arizona: Saints only giving seven points? Run to your nearest sportsbook now. Right now.

Saints 37, Cardinals 17

Tennessee at Dallas: Another tough one. I'm not ready to proclaim the Cowboys "fixed" after their impressive win in Houston two weeks ago, but I also still be believe they are the best team in their divison and still a factor in the NFC overall. The Titans have been up and down this year (who hasn't), but if I trusted Vince Young more I'd like their chances better.

Cowboys 26, Titans 20

San Diego at Oakland: Why not?

Raiders 23, Chargers 22

Philadelphia at San Francisco: Eagles catching the 49ers at the absolute worst possible time. Nothing more desperate than an 0-4 team coming home against an inexperienced QB.

49ers 21, Eagles 17

Minnesota at New York Jets: Not going with the upset here because I think the Favre-Moss combo is going to immediately explode on the scene. But I do think the BYE week may help the Vikes regroup a bit and find a bit of that nastiness their defense displayed the majority of last season. Things have been very easy for the Jets the past three weeks. Maybe too easy.

Vikings 22, Jets 20

Against the Spread

Lock: Saints (-7) at Cardinals

2. Panthers (+2.5) vs. Bears
3. Falcons (-3) at Browns
4. Vikings (+4.5) at Jets

NFL Picks: Week 4

2010-10-02T12:00:00.002-05:00

Last Week: 8-8
Season: 25-23
Redskins: 0-3
Against the Spread: 1-3 (Season: 6-6; Lock 1-2)

New York Jets at Buffalo: Extremely impressed with what the Jets have done these past two weeks. Great turnaround for Mark Sanchez after his terrible performance in week one. I may need to rethink my take on Gang Green this year.

Jets 23, Bills 10

Baltimore at Pittsburgh: How impressive will it be if the Steelers go 4-0 to start the season without Big Ben? Their defense is making me a believer, but I’m still leaning towards the Ravens.

Ravens 17, Steelers 13

Seattle at St. Louis: Sam Bradford has not only made the Rams a better team on the field from a tactical standpoint, his arrival has seemed to infuse the entire organization and fan base with an excitement and enthusiasm that had been sorely lacking for the past several years. Quietly the St. Louis defense has also held their own thus far in 2010.

Rams 23, Seahawks 20

San Francisco at Atlanta: You can put a fork in most teams that start 0-3 and you can toss the 0-4 teams into the garbage. But I think it’s entirely possible that a 7-9 team could WIN the NFC West this year—so even after Atlanta pounds the Niners this Sunday, there might still be hope in SF.

Falcons 26, 49ers 14

Cincinnati at Cleveland: Every week in the NFL there is going to be one of those “this makes no sense” type of results. I’m pegging for it to happen in Cleveland this week.

Browns 20, Bengals 17

Denver at Tennessee: The Titans would like to be invited to the AFC South party with
Houston and Indy. Tennessee rounds out arguably the best division in football.

Titans 27, Broncos 17

Carolina at New Orleans: The Panthers, starting a rookie QB, look to be just the remedy the Saints need after last week’s tough loss to Atlanta.

Saints 35, Panthers 20

Detroit at Green Bay: Rough opening schedule for the Lions, coupled with the injury to Matthew Stafford has masked the fact that they are playing much better football in 2010. Having said that, no one the Packers drop this one at home coming off a loss.

Packers 33, Lions 19

Houston at Oakland: I’ve been on the Texans bandwagon since day one, but the way they went down to the Cowboys last week bothers me. They caught Dallas in a tough spot and I wasn’t shocked the game got away from them, but I was surprised at how Dallas punished them physically. I’m thinking Houston bounces back this week, but I’d be a bit concerned if I were a Texans fan.

Texans 28, Raiders 21

Indianapolis at Jacksonville: Absolute blowouts are rare in the NFL these days, yet the Jags have suffered two suck losses in back to back weeks. Jack Del Rio is on his way out the door and I don’t see things getting better this week.

Colts 31, Jaguars 16

Washington at Philadelphia: If I believed that there was any poetic justice in this world, I’d go with the Redskins this week. Michael Vick served his time and should absolutely be allowed to pursue his life after the dog-fighting disgrace. Having said that, from a personal standpoint I still can’t wrap my head around or stomach what he did to those animals. For me it goes beyond a “mistake” and speaks to something much more sinister. I do not condemn Vick and I truly hope he is repentant and turns his life around. Having said that, the guy on the other side of the ball this week, has been nothing but a class act from the day he crossed the podium (to resounding boos) at the NFL draft. Donovan McNabb took the Eagles to 5 NFC Championship Games and 1 Super Bowl during his tenure and never responded with anything but composure and dignity to the constant criticism levied his way. It sure would be nice to see a “good guy” earn a victory in his return. But I don’t think poetic justice can save McNabb this week.

Eagles 27, Redskins 20

Arizona at San Diego: The Cardinals are least impressive 2-1 team…ever.

Chargers 29, Cardinals 13

Chicago at New York Giants: Very interesting game; close to a must-win for the Giants and a chance for the Bears to really assert themselves as legitimate contenders in the NFC. Chicago has certainly looked significantly better so far this year, but I’ll go with the more desperate team.

Giants 25, Bears 23

New England at Miami: Keep flip-flopping on this one. In some ways it’s still hard for me to pick against New England, but the truth of the matter is that the 2007 team is long gone. Now, the Patriots are just another above average team battling with everyone else for positioning. A very shaky vote for the Pats this week.

Patriots 27, Dolphins 24

Against the Spread:

Lock: Ravens (+1.5) at Steelers

2. Browns (+3) vs. Bengals
3. Rams (+1.5) vs. Seahawks
4. Titans (-7.5) vs. Broncos

NFL Picks: Week 3

2010-09-24T00:57:00.002-05:00

Last Week: 7-9
Season: 17-15
Redskins: 0-2
Against the Spread: 1-3 (Season: 5-3; Lock: 1-1)

Week 3

Cincinnati at Carolina: I'm not as in love with the Bengals this week as everyone else is, but it's an obvious lean given the way Carolina has played the first two weeks.

Bengals 17, Panthers 13

Cleveland at Baltimore: I thought the Browns had a really good chance to be semi-competitive this year, but those hopes may be lost considering they are already 0-2 against relatively subpar competition. Joe Flacco looks dreadful thus far, but even if he lays another egg, the Ravens should handle the Browns.

Ravens 27, Browns 13

Detroit at Minnesota: While I'm going to go ahead and pick the Vikings to get up off the mat this week, I don't think they are suddenly going to morph into a good offense overnight and throttle the Lions.

Vikings 24, Lions 19

Tennessee at New York Giants: Just not quite sure what to think of the Giants performance in Indianapolis last week...seems a bit early in the season to have "just one of those games." Having said that, the Titans got shut down by Pittsburgh last week and you've got to question where Vince Young's confidence level is at thesedays. Very slight edge to the Giants.

Giants 20, Titans 17

Pittsburgh at Tampa Bay: I always quote the famous saying, "never bet the due," and then I go out and completely ignore it. That's what I'm doing with this game...are the Bucs REALLY going to start the season 3-0?

Steelers 16, Bucs 13

San Francisco at Kansas City: Another "due" game...for both teams. I can't stop.

49ers 21, Chiefs 19

Atlanta at New Orleans: I went out on a limb with my prediciton of the Falcons winning in the NFC South this year-- this might be a make or break game for that particular prognostication. Look for the upset.

Falcons 27, Saints 24

Buffalo at New England: If you are in a Survivor League, pick against Buffalo until further notice...

Patriots 33, Bills 17

Dallas at Houston: Again, here's the "due" question. Are the Cowboys REALLY going to start the season 0-3? I think the answer is yes...Cowboys have a myriad of issues right now and the Texans are talented and flying high after a thrilling win in Washington last week.

Texans 26, Cowboys 21

Washington at St. Louis: This should be a relatively easy bounce-back game for Washington this week (if there is such a thing in the NFL nowadays). The Rams play hard and Sam Bradford will continue to have some stellar moments, but the bottom line is that any decent team should handle the Rams.

Redskins 24, Rams 15

Philadelphia at Jacksonville: Just want this one to get over with so we can start hyping McNabb vs. Vick next week.

Eagles 23, Jaguars 20

San Diego at Seattle: Eh, kind of yuck. Not sure what I think of the Seahawks and I'm pretty sure I know what to think of the Chargers (same ole' story). Seattle is always a tough spot, but I see the Bolts pulling away.

Chargers 30, Seahawks 20

Indianapolis at Denver: Very solid performance from the Broncos last week, but I'm just not buying what they are selling.

Colts 29, Broncos 17

Oakland at Arizona: Raider Nation had high hopes this year for Jason Campbell and the team in general...it's week 3 and the former is already on the bench, which can't be good for the latter. Having said that, Arizona is lousy this year as well...flip a coin.

Raiders 19, Cardinals 17

New York Jets at Miami: Gotta give it up to Rex Ryan, Mark Sanchez, and the Jets...I thought New England was going to bury them last week, but they stepped up and delivered a very clutch performance. But I want to see them do it again. I like the Dolphins this week.

Dolphins 17, Jets 15

Green Bay at Chicago: The Bears were another team I wore out last week, and they came out and looked fantastic down in Dallas...arguably the best overall performance Jay Cutler has had as a Bear. That type of win definitely shifts my thinking on what type of team the Bears are this year, but I still don't think they can keep pace with the Pack. Aaron Rodgers is due for a big night.

Packers 34, Bears 26

Against the Spread:

Lock: Redskins (-3.5) at Rams

2. Falcons (+3.5) at Saints
3. Lions (+12) at Vikings
4. Packers (-3) at Bears

NFL Picks: Week 2

2010-09-16T11:19:00.004-05:00

Last Week: 10-6
Season: 10-6
Redskins: 0-1
Against the Spread: 4-0 (Season: 4-0)

Week 2

Baltimore at Cincinnati: Critical early game for the Bengals after they got thumped in New England last week. The Ravens offense was not impressive last week either, but I have a gut feeling they break out this week.

Ravens 27, Bengals 17

Miami at Minnesota: Two games on the schedule this week scream "easy" to me with high-profile teams opening at home coming off an emotional road loss in week one. This is one of them.

Vikings 28, Dolphins 13

Chicago at Dallas: If you hadn't already figured it out, this is the other game I alluded to above. The Cowboys have some issues, but not on the defensive side of the ball-- look for Jay Cutler to have a long day indeed.

Cowboys 27, Bears 10

Philadelphia at Detroit: I had this one penciled in as an early season upset-alert since the schedule came out, but the Matthew Stafford injury has me backing down now. I'm going to go ahead and stick with my gut, although I am far less confident than I'd be if Stafford was available.

Lions 20, Eagles 19

Arizona at Atlanta: The Cardinals managed to sneak away with a win in St. Louis last week, but it wasn't easy and it wasn't pretty. I found the Falcons opening week effort in Pittsburgh to be highly disappointing, but I'm not ready to jump off the Atlanta bandwagon yet.

Falcons 31, Cardinals 14

Kansas City at Cleveland: I expected a bit more from the Browns in Tampa last week, but I did call the Chiefs upset over San Diego. Most people will look at the results of those two games and lean heavily in Kansas City's favor. I'm going to say the young Chiefs stumble a bit.

Browns 23, Chiefs 20

Buffalo at Green Bay: It doesn't matter if the Packers start Brandon Jackson, Jesse Jackson, or Jackson Browne at running back this week...Buffalo is going to get slaughtered.

Packers 34, Bills 13

Pittsburgh at Tennessee: I have a feeling the Titans are going to be a real pain this year; Chris Johnson is on another planet.

Titans 19, Steelers 15

Tampa Bay at Carolina: Good opportunity for the Bucs to start 2-0; I don't see it happening--Panthers bounce back from terrible second half in New York.

Panthers 20, Bucs 13

St. Louis at Oakland: As much as I enjoy a good Raiders joke, this team should be much better than what they showed in week one. I see a long day in store for Sam Bradford.

Raiders 29, Rams 12

Seattle at Denver: Flip a coin on this one....very slight edge to the home team; bettors--stay away.

Broncos 24, Seahawks 22

Houston at Washington: Interesting game between an offense that couldn't be stopped in week one and a defense that was equally as impressive. The Texans are the better/more talented team here...play 10 games on a neutral field and the win at least six. But something tells me to lean Redskins this week.

Redskins 22, Texans 17

Jacksonville at San Diego: I picked the Jags to finish 4-12 this year, so I sort of have to pick the Chargers here.

Chargers 30, Jaguars 17

New England at New York Jets: Just not buying the Jets this year...at all. Panic sets in after this Sunday.

Patriots 20, Jets 10

New York Giants at Indianapolis: I'm not simply discarding the 230+ yards Arian Foster gained on Indy last week as an abberation---there are some major issues with that Colts defense. I'll say Peyton pulls one out of his hat this week, but wouldn't be shocked at all if the Giants pull the upset.

Colts 27, Giants 24

New Orleans at San Francisco: I am definitley NOT in the Mike Singletary fan club at this point--I find him to be highly overrated and absurdly conservative thus far. Jimmy Raye is his choice for offensive coordinator? Yikes.

Saints 26, 49ers 20

Against the Spread

Lock: Raiders (-4) vs. Rams

2. Patriots (even) at Jets
3. Panthers (-2) vs. Bucs
4. Packers (-14) vs. Bills

NFL Picks: Week One

2010-09-08T21:29:00.002-05:00

Last year was the swang song for "Picks, Pats, and Apologies." Just too busy to put that much time into it thesedays, and it definitely lost steam over the years and especially down the stretch each season. But I do enjoy making the picks and tracking my record both SU and ATS. So, I've streamlined the weekly segment into a simple picks column. No further explanation needed. Here's some history, and then on to the picks...

2009

Season: 168-88
Post Season: 6-5
Redskins: 13-3
Against the Spread: 32-36
Lock of the Week: 5-12

2008

Regular Season: 167-88-1
Post Season 5-6
Record Picking Redskins Games: 7-9
Against the Spread: 33-32-2
Lock of the Week: 10-6-1

2007

Regular Season: 166-90
Post Season: 4-7
Record Picking Redskins Games (including playoffs): 10-7
Against The Spread: 29-33-2
Lock of the Week: 10-6

2006

Regular Season: 146-110
Post Season: 8-3
Record Picking Redskins Games: 8-8

2005

Regular Season: 163-91
Post Season: 6-5
Record Picking Redskins Games (including playoffs): 14-4

Analysis: With one exception (2006), I've been extremely consistent in my regular season picks, winning between 163-168 every other season. Last year, I had my best year ever SU. I am also quite good when it comes to picking the Redskins, never dipping below .500 and usually getting double-digit games correct. ATS has not been very pretty-- I've especially faded late in most seasons. My Locks of the Week have been decent, but nothing special and I had a terrible year in that department last year. My goal is to hit the 170 mark SU and go above .500 ATS in 2010.

Week One

Minnesota at New Orleans: I think both of these teams fall short of the NFC Championship Game this year-- not sure either is built for a repeat of 2009. Having said that, both teams are still legit contenders. Hard to go against history here-- since the NFL started the tradition of the Super Bowl winner hosting the opener, the home team has dominted.

Saints 27, Vikings 23

Denver at Jacksonville: One of a handful of opening week yawners. Two teams that will both be lucky to see 6 wins.

Broncos 19, Jaguars 16

Oakland at Tennessee: Mildly intruiged to see the Raiders defense this season and Chris Johnson is always worth watching. Look for a fairly entertaining game.

Titans 23, Raiders 20

Cincinnati at New England: I've picked New England to win the East, so it stands to reason that these are the types of games they will need to pull out in order to do that. Cincy is solid, but I simply don't trust them to find ways to win against the better teams. This is a big year for Carson Palmer.

Patriots 24, Bengals 17

Cleveland at Tampa Bay: I think week one of 2011 will be more interesting...when there's a lockout.

Browns 20, Bucs 13

Indianapolis at Houston: By far the best match-up of week one (including Vikings-Saints). It's a shame this game gets relegated to the regional early CBS slot because I believe the two Colts-Texans games may have the biggest bearing on the overall outcome of the AFC this year. I'm picking Indy to edge out the Texans by the end of the regular season, but I like the Texans to pull the mild upset in week one. Houston has a much raw talent as anyone in the NFL.

Texans 27, Colts 24

Detroit at Chicago: Detroit is about to surprise a whole bunch of people around the NFL. This will be a very competitive team in 2010 while the Bears will look very similar to the squad that stumbled through 2009. I'm just not sure there's a magic switch that Jay Cutler can flip to cure what ails him--maybe Mike Martz has the answer?

Lions 23, Bears 19

Atlanta at Pittsburgh: The Falcons (along with the Dolphins) will be the biggest positive surprises of the 2010 season. For Atlanta, their run to the NFC South title begins in Pittsburgh.

Falcons 22, Steelers 16

Miami at Buffalo: I'm having a hard time finding a pick for my Survivor League, but I've settled on the Dolphins. Miami is wild-card worthy while the Bills may very well be the worst team in the league.

Dolphins 28, Bills 13

Carolina at New York Giants: I think I know what the Giants are-- a team teetering on the edge between pretty good and slightly above average. I'm not sure what the Panthers are-- Matt Moore will have a lot to say about that. I week one, I'll go with what I know.

Giants 21, Panthers 17

Green Bay at Philadelphia: It's all there for the Packers in 2010...this team is loaded and Aaron Rodgers appears primed to make a serious MVP run. The defense should be stout as well, but they have much to prove after getting steamrolled by Arizona in the playoffs last year. The post-McNabb era begins in Philly-- Kevin Kolb probably wishes it was against someone else.

Packers 30, Eagles 20

Arizona at St. Louis: I am so tempted to pick the upset here. The Rams will enter this game with energy and enthusiasm behind Sam Bradford while the Cardinals come in licking their wounds from a tough off-season. Kurt Warner's departure killed both of these teams...will it take Arizona as long to rebound as it has in St. Louis?

Cardinals 26, Rams 24

San Francisco at Seattle: If the 49ers can't take this division now, it may never happen. Even on the road, this is a very important game for SF to establish themselves as the team to beat in the West.

49ers 23, Seahawks 13

Dallas at Washington: Things don't feel right in Dallas right now and a week one loss to their rivals could cause a ton of tension in Big D while possibly helping to change the shape of the NFC East in 2010. The Redskins simply have too many questions and holes to feel good about picking an upset here, but I would tread lightly if I was a betting man leaning towards the Boys.

Cowboys 20, Redskins 17

Baltimore at New York Jets: The Jets have sucked the air out of NYC this off-season with all their chust-thumping and bravado. If you believe in karma at all, I'd steer clear of the Jets in 2010. No one seems to remember they snuck into the playoffs last year in large part because Indy pulled Manning and crew in a crucial game for New York. This team has more holes than they want to admit. Look for them to get exposed Monday Night.

Ravens 27, Jets 16

San Diego at Kansas City: Why not round out a week of upsets and surprises with a big one in KC-- look for the Chiefs to shock the traditonally slow-starting Chargers.

Chiefs 26, Chargers 24

Against the Spread:

LOCK: Dolphins (-1.5) at Bills

2. Ravens (+3) at Jets
3. Packers (+1) at Eagles
4. Lions (+7) at Bears

2010 NFL Predictions

2010-09-08T14:32:00.002-05:00

AFC East

1. New England (11-5): Look for Brady to return to pre-injury form.
2. Miami (10-6): Smart front office leads the way.
3. New York Jets (9-7): Expectations trhough the roof for overrated roster.
4. Buffalo (2-14): No team is in worse shape now or in the future.

AFC North

1. Baltimore (10-6): Role reversal; can defense keep pace with explosive offense?
2. Cincinnati (9-7): Solid, but missing a punch on both sides of the ball.
3. Pittsburgh (8-8): Surviving first four weeks will be key.
4. Cleveland (6-10): Won't compete at a high level, but will be competent.

AFC South

1. Indianapolis (11-5): Tried to find a reason to downgrade them, but couldn't.
2. Houston (11-5): This is the year Houston turns the corner.
3. Tennessee (8-8): Don't sleep on Jeff Fisher.
4. Jacksonville (4-12): Jack Del Rio's swang song.

AFC West

1. San Diego (10-6): Little competition in division allows Chargers to cruise.
2. Kansas City (8-8): Picked them as a breakout team last year; was I a year early?
3. Oakland (7-9): Expect significant improvement.
4. Denver (5-11): Expect late season slide from last year to continue.

Playoffs

Dolphins over Chargers
Ravens over Texans

Colts over Dolphins
Patriots over Ravens

Colts over Patriots

NFC East

1. Dallas (10-6): Something smells fishy in Big D.
2. New York Giants (9-7): Could easily supplant the Cowboys in the East
3. Washington (8-8): Too many holes to contend.
4. Philadelphia (8-8): Time was right to move on from McNabb; is Kolb the answer?

NFC North

1. Green Bay (12-4): Most complete roster in the league. Rodgers is a star.
2. Minnesota (11-5): Missed their window last year.
3. Detroit (6-10): Will be much improved. Schwartz is a winner.
4. Chicago (6-10): Lovie Smith hanging by a thread.

NFC South

1. Atlanta (11-5): Surprise of the year; legit Super Bowl contender.
2. New Orleans (10-6): Easy home schedule will keep them relevant.
3. Carolina (8-8): Matt Moore is an unknown; team has potential.
4. Tampa Bay (2-14): Seems to be going in 1000 different directions.

AFC West

1. San Francisco (9-7): Division is theirs on a silver platter.
2. Seattle (7-9): Eh, nothing to see here.
3. Arizona (7-9): If people don't believe Kurt Warner is HOF worthy, they will now.
4. St. Louis (3-13): Bradford makes the season bearable.

Playoffs

Saints over Cowboys
Vikings over 49ers

Packers over Saints
Falcons over Vikings

Packers over Falcons

Super Bowl XLV

Indianapolis 30
Green Bay 27

Ed, Thunder, and Sheep

2010-08-22T21:00:00.002-05:00

In my 32 years, I have tried to live my life under the guiding light of a few simple principles.

1.Don’t punch people
2.Don’t steal things
3.Don’t lie
4.Don’t ever become a bandwagon sports fan

And in those 32 years, I really think I’ve done a decent job of adhering to these principles. I’ve slipped up a time or two on numbers 1-3 (in 4th grade, this one kid really had it coming) and I did steal a few hearts along the way in college (Bada Bing!). But never have I even come remotely close to breaking rule #4. Never. So in an effort to adhere to rule #3, I feel it is my duty to announce my “Decision” to completely abandon rule #4.

The Washington Redskins, the Cincinnati Reds, and the Cleveland Cavaliers. Since I was a youngster, those three teams have pretty much been synonymous with my persona in general. Everyone knew what to expect. They knew I would not waver. Even as all of my friends went ga-ga over Michael Jordan in the 90’s, I stuck with the bumbling Cavs. Once I turned 18, I shelled out money for the NBA package year after year to watch a consistently lousy bunch. So, it was pretty clear I was a die-hard Cavs fan. Although, deep down, the Cavs never resonated with me, never tugged at my innards (how’s that for a dramatic description) the way the Redskins and Reds did. Then, along came Lebron and all of a sudden being a Cavs fan was well worth the previous misery.

It isn’t easy always rooting for teams that reside far away. I’ve always longed to be able to root for the home team, to be able to see “my” team play games live more than once every few years. But that was the price I paid and I accepted it. No bandwagoning for me.
Enter the Oklahoma City Thunder.

I was excited when they arrived. Excited for my city. Excited that the NBA would be a presence in a state I love. But I never even gave becoming a Thunder fan a passing thought. It just isn’t who I am. Or perhaps I should say, it just wasn’t who I was.

It was a perfect storm really. My wife and I got tickets to game 6 at the Ford Center against the Lakers- and let me tell you, I felt an excitement in that arena that night that I’ve experienced only a few other times as a sports fan. I enjoyed myself beyond belief, but the main emotion I had was outright jealousy. At the time, my team had already advanced to the second round of the playoffs, and I was fairly confident they’d be playing in the NBA Finals in a few short weeks. Yet, I still found myself longing to be a Thunder fan. I didn’t want to be an outsider anymore. I wanted to be a sheep. But I took those emotions and pushed them deep down somewhere because of rule #4.

Enter “The Decision.”

Lebron leaves all Cavs fans high and dry. Anger, frustration, and sadness followed. But I couldn’t help feeling the tug of opportunity as well. From a morale standpoint, abandoning the Cavs now seemed flat wrong. But from a practical standpoint, the pieces had fallen perfectly into place.

It’s pretty clear where I’m going with this, so I will cut to chase. I’ve made the decision to switch my allegiance. It makes me feel dirty to say it, but it is also strangely euphoric. Those of you that know me well will be able to understand that what I am about to say is not an exaggeration: I spent SEVERAL WEEKS mulling this over. I thought about it constantly throughout the day; I waffled back and forth. Then, one morning, it just hit me: Go for it. I’ve decided to run to the Ford Center and never look back.

My Reasons:

1.Logistics: It takes me approximately 15 minutes to get to the Ford Center. It takes me approximately 15 hours (without stopping) to get to Quicken Loans Arena. Also, the majority of Cavs game start at 6:00 central, which was always an annoyance (dinner time with the family). The Thunder will play their games in at a much more appropriate hour for me.

2.Money: What is a better investment…shelling out dough for games you can experience live and watching the others for free on TV, or shelling out hundreds for the NBA package?

3.Family/Friends: My daughter will almost certainly grow up rooting for the Thunder and my wife already does. It’s something we can all do together, and it’s sort of lame if Daddy is rooting for the other team.

4.Thunder future versus Cavs future: This is the true bandwagoning reason. Had Lebron stayed, I would have stuck it out for sure. Now, rooting for the Thunder seems like a much better long term proposition than rooting for the Cavs.

5.The Miami Heat: I hate them, period. More than I hate the Dallas Cowboys, and maybe as much as I hate the St. Louis Cardinals. Hate. And no team in the NBA has a better chance in the foreseeable future to keeping the Heat from becoming a dynasty than the Thunder. There might even be Finals match-up in the works. If that happens, my head will explode. I will sleep on the streets of Bricktown, mumbling gibberish until each game starts.

6.Baaaaa: The sheep theory; I really want to be able to turn to the dude sitting next to me at a game and give him a high-five as opposed to dodging insults (and occasionally objects) wearing the opposite colors.

7.Civic Pride: I love my city and I am so proud of the way the Thunder have been received. It’s a great thing to experience.

Now, let me answer a few questions some of you may have:

1.Why not just root for both teams? Doesn’t work that way. Jumping from one to the other is bad enough, saying “I have two favorite teams” is unspeakable. If you have two teams, you have none. You are either all in or all out. I can never go back to being a Cavs fan and have a shred of dignity to show for it. If someday they become a champion, I will not be able to claim it as a fan. I have already given away much of my Cavs/Lebron paraphernalia and I’ve deleted various fan/team sites from my favorites. I will “pull” for the Cavs from the periphery and I truly believe Dan Gilbert will build a winner again (I actually think they will be competitive this year), but I will no longer live or die with the team.

2.So, if OKC got an MLB or NFL team, would you switch? No. The Reds and Redskins are simply too ingrained in my DNA. Again, with the Cavs there was always at least a small disconnect. The door was always slightly open, as I’d pondered this a few times before (namely becoming a Rockets fan when I lived in Houston).

3.Will you feel like you “earned it” if the Thunder win? Not sure, we’ll have to see. Part of what being a fan is all about is suffering the agony so that you can someday experience the joy, even if it’s fleeting. Admittedly, with the Thunder, I’m jumping on a ship that has absolutely smooth sailing right now. The test for me will come 20 years down the road.

4.Do you think you can do REALLY do it? Yes, absolutely. I have already purchased a 12 game season package and I’ve circled the dates and put the schedule on my fridge…much like an 8 year old would. Doing this the right way won’t be hard for me at all.

So that’s it. Say what you will. I probably deserve some criticism. But I really don’t care. There is a herd of sheep marching towards the Ford Center…for 32 years I’ve resisted the urge to join these crowds, but the allure of this opportunity is simply too strong. I’m there. Bring on the Durant jersey! Bring on the Goosebumps every time they play “Thunderstruck!” Bring on high-fiving my wife and the random dude next to me and bring on teaching my daughter to say “Thunder Up!”

Let’s just hope I don’t “bring on” the jinx that seems to have followed my teams up to this point…

More "Final Thoughts" on Lebron

2010-07-09T21:31:00.000-05:00

I’m a liar I guess, just like Lebron. Yesterday I titled my post “final thoughts on Lebron.” Hardly. Here I go again.

Both Dan Gilbert and myself probably would have been better off cooling down for 24 hours before putting anything in writing, but sometimes it’s cathartic to vent. Today, from various email exchanges with family and friends and from listening to countless media pundits on TV and radio discuss the “Decsion,” I now have some more “final thoughts.”

1.I do not regret/take back anything I said last night. I just wish I would have waited so that I could composed my thoughts in a slightly more coherent manner. I would also like to make clear that while I absolutely believe Lebron to be weak and the embodiment of many negative aspects in our culture today, I am NOT saying he is a bad person. What I am saying is that I believe his recent actions have exposed some character flaws that I do not admire.

2.I am torn on Dan Gilbert’s rant. It certainly lacks a certain professionalism and his “guarantee” of a ring before Miami is pretty laughable and puts some undo pressure on his GM and coach to win quickly, when in all reality the Cavs need to be entering rebuild mode. His “quitting” accusation (although I agree with him) is also something that you normally tread lightly around in the sports world. I can understand why Gilbert is catching heat for his comments. Having said that, there is another part of me that was incredibly happy and relieved to read what he had to say. In our PC world where everyone is afraid to say anything that might offend, it was nice to hear someone in such a position just speak from the heart. I think he took one for the team in many ways. He spoke for the whole city of Cleveland. He channeled the emotion of the fans. What if he had just released a statement saying, “We are disappointed, but also happy for what he did in Cleveland—we wish him luck in Miami”? That would have made me vomit.

3.The “Cleveland never gave him” a #2 option is not entirely true. Remember Carlos Boozer? Yeah, that snake. While Lebron was disingenuous to be sure, Boozer was a stone cold liar and still holds the record for most classless off-season move in my mind. But just remember, at one point, the Cavs had Boozer and Lebron together and planned to build around that duo. Boozer sold them down the river and the Cavs frantically tried to recover. Funny, six years later and Boozer is moving on to another team with no rings, while Lebron moves on…with no rings. Others have said the Cavs just didn’t give Lebron the cast he needed. So, what they are saying then is that he needed Wade and Bosh? Why didn’t Lebron convince them to come to Cleveland then? Because they obviously didn’t want to go there. It’s “all about winning?” Yeah, I’m sure the bright lights of South Beach had nothing to do with it.

4.The timing seems so off for this kind of “dream team.” This is not the point in his career where Lebron needed to “chase” a ring at all costs. Had he signed a four or five year deal in Cleveland, given it another run and still come up empty, then I think most people would see he was 30 years old and running out of time. That would make some sense. Just like Clyde Drexler going to Houston at the end of his career, or the Big Three in Boston recently. But to run away from the challenge of winning in Cleveland at age 25 just seems like a panic move in every way.

5.Orlando GM Otis Smith said it brilliantly today, “I thought Lebron was more of a competitor than that.” I know people have defended him saying, “he just wants to be with his buddies…” while that’s all fine and good, “dream team” assembly is not good for the sport. Magic and Bird were great friends, but also fierce competitors. I think both would have completely scoffed at the idea of joining forces. The fun was in the quest to beat the other. Lebron is 25 years old, it was way too early to say “if you can’t beat em’, join em’.” But that’s essentially what he did.

6.It would have meant so much more to Cleveland than it ever will to Miami. I challenge anyone to dispute that. Perhaps the pressure of delivering that promise was too much for Lebron. It is just so disappointing to realize that this was a challenge Lebron was unwilling to accept.

Final Thoughts on Lebron

2010-07-08T21:12:00.001-05:00

I have too many thoughts running through my brain right now to compose a coherent “analysis” of the “The Decision,” so I’m going throw my thoughts on this page and see what sticks.

In about a five day period, Lebron James has gone from my all-time favorite athlete and someone I truly admired both on and off the court to being my most despised sports figure of all-time. For those who will claim this is just sour grapes from a stung fan, let me set the record straight:

The fact that he left hurts, and would have hurt no matter the delivery. However, the charade he put on leading up to this decision and then the decision itself were classless, narcissistic, and a prime example of why many people are turned off by professional athletes.

First, the spectacle side of things. In a sports world full of egos and arrogant maneuvers, Lebron’s decision to contact ESPN and hold this fiasco takes the cake for biggest self-serving move in history. Lebron knew how much he was about to deflate his hometown, yet he still chose to drag everyone along and give his loyal fans a glimmer of hope that he might grace them with his return.
The hour long special was an utter joke. I lost tons of respect for Lebron the minute he went that route.

Having said that, there is a basketball side of things as well. In that regard, I do understand Lebron’s desire to possibly move on from the Cavs. Both the Bulls and Heat clearly have better casts that would give him a better immediate opportunity to win. But by signing with the Heat, Lebron has showed his cowardice. He is basically saying that he can’t lead a team to a title, he needs massive help. He needs to go somewhere with an established superstar that already has a ring (Dwayne Wade).

This is a bad day for sports, specifically the NBA. Superstars are supposed to clash on the court in pursuit of a title. Instead, we have a this sad lovefest between Lebron, Wade, and their never-won-a-damn-thing tagalong, Chris Bosh.

And the city of Miami? Please, they don’t deserve it. The Heat have struggled to fill their arena since their inception. No one cares. Now, of course, Heat tickets will be a hot item. Courtside on South Beach will definitely be the place be seen come this winter. The loyal and supportive Cleveland fans will now have to watch this abomination from their couches at home.

Lebron took the easy way out. If they don’t win in Miami, there will be at least two other people he can blame. He ran away from the challenge of bringing Cleveland it’s first time. Kind of like the way he ran off the court before time expired in the Boston series this year. Speaking of that series, I always want people to remember that it was Lebron, not his teammates, that choked during the pivotal moments in games 5 and 6. Lebron cracked under the pressure and now he’s running from it.
It’s a shame it ends this way because I truly admired the guy. What he did for the Cavs franchise during his time there was amazing. I have many fond memories from his seven season donning the wine and gold. But unfortunately, the way he went out against Boston followed by the “Lebronathon Parade” this summer are the two events that will most prominently remain in the hearts and minds of Cavs fans.

Had Lebron won one or two rings in Cleveland, it would have been the equivalent of 5-6 in Miami. The celebration in Cleveland would have been epic. In Miami, it will be stale.

Tonight, the posters hanging in my garage come down. The jersey will make it’s way to the trash along with some other memorabilia. And there will be an empty feeling in my stomach the day the NBA schedule is released and I realize that my team will most likely revert to their old, miserable ways of the “pre-Lebron” era.
People will say Lebron gave his best while he was in Cleveland and owed the fans nothing more. That is partly true. But all people deserve respect and decency. And Lebron displayed neither in his final acts before the “The Decision.”

I guess the party can begin in Miami, and while the Heat may win some rings over the next few years, I believe a person’s true colors are on display in how they treat others.

Just because you win, doesn’t mean you aren’t a loser.

Goodbye Lebron? Maybe it's For the Best

2010-05-14T08:42:00.000-05:00

One of the best moments of my life as a sports fan came approximately seven years ago as I sat on my couch, watching a man in a suit slowly open envelopes. Inside those envelopes contained the number one thing sports fans long for beyond championships: Hope.

As a lifelong fan of the Cleveland Cavaliers I had become accustomed to wild disappointment. The team was good, but not good enough in the late 80’s and early 90’s, and then went through a ten-year period where the results ranged from middling to awful. In 2003, the team won a mere 17 games and there was no hope in sight.

Enter the Draft Lottery, where young phenom Lebron James loomed as the ultimate prize. Not only was he the most coveted and decorated high school player of all-time, he was also a local kid from Akron, and viewed by many (myself included) as a potential savior of a moribund franchise.

I figured we’d lose out on Lebron of course. I figured we’d finish second or third in lottery and watch Lebron walk across the stage on draft night to don a Pistons or Nuggets hat. I had little hope that hope would arrive.

But for what seemed like the first time in franchise history, the Cavs got a stroke of luck that night…they won the lottery. Lebron was on his way.

Over the next seven years my “relationship” with Lebron grew from hope to man-crush to all out hero worship. I “fell” for Lebron not because of what he did individually, but because of what he was doing for my team and my enjoyment level during basketball season. He resurrected an entire franchise and pumped life into a city that desperately needed some excitement and hope from one of its teams.

The night in 2007 the Cavs clinched their first Eastern Conference Title in franchise history was a glorious night indeed. I knew they didn’t stand a chance in the Finals against the Spurs, but it didn’t really matter. From 17 wins to the NBA Finals in four years was more than I could have ever dreamed. Plus, I had faith Lebron and my beloved Cavs would eventually hoist the trophy.

That’s the thing about faith. Sometimes it can simply mask reality.

The first four years were all grins and giggles, with promise of glory to come. The past three years, despite all of the wins, awards, and good times, have ended in utter misery.

When the Cavs bowed out to Orlando in the East Finals last year, I felt sick for a week. I couldn’t even bring myself to watch the Finals. I was convinced the Cavs were going to get a shot at the Lakers, but the Magic had different plans for my summer vacation.

This year, with the memory of the Orlando series still vividly entrenched in my brain, I was more cautious, yet still confident that we’d at least get the opportunity to avenge our loss from last year. THIS was the year Lebron would get his shot at Kobe. This time, it was the Celtics that changed my plans.

After the Cavs game 5 loss on Tuesday night, I couldn’t sleep. Yes, it’s pretty embarrassing for a married man with a kid to admit that, but it’s true. I knew what was coming. I saw all I needed to see. I knew Boston would bring our season to yet another cruel ending in Game 6. I didn’t even want to watch, but I had to.

The Cavs have had the best record in the league the past two years. They’ve had homecourt advantage throughout the playoffs and they’ve provided an array of great moments and memories. Yet, the trophy case remains empty.

The elephant in the room of course is Lebron’s pending free agency. His unsure future in Cleveland no doubt loomed large over the Cavs season this year and the vice only got tighter at the playoffs progressed and the Cavs inched closer and closer to elimination.

Will this be Lebron’s last game in Cleveland? Will it be his last game in Cavs uniform? It was hard enough worrying about how we’d beat the Celtics. Perhaps the added pressure from Lebron’s contract situation was too much for everyone to handle?

Many will point the finger at GM Danny Ferry for our failure the past three seasons. If I were a finger-pointing type, that’s where I’d start as well. And while I believe coach Mike Brown has gotten too much blame lately, I certainly don’t think he helped his cause with his frantic substitution patterns and slow response to the Celtics game plan.

The general consensus from the outside world will be to point fingers at everyone other than Lebron for his inability to win a title in Cleveland. And no doubt his supporting cast (both in the booth, on the bench, and on the floor) will be cited as the prime reason he leaves if he should choose to do so.

But make no mistake, the failure in the post-season this year had as much to do with Lebron as it did his cast. Something was “off” from the very start of these playoffs. Maybe it was his elbow? Maybe it was his psyche? Maybe it was the pressure? Whatever it was, Lebron simply wasn’t efficient or aggressive enough down the stretch. Boston played so well that they may have won the series even if Lebron had been at the top of his game, but we’ll never know because Lebron wasn’t anywhere near the top of his game.

On Thursday night, Mo Williams stepped up and kept the Cavs alive in the first half. He had a brilliant 24 minutes and the Cavs were only down 2 at the break. That was Lebron’s window. Williams helped set the table, now it was time for Lebron to eat. It was time for a closer. Lebron’s effort seemed to be there, but the results were not. Asking one man to single-handedly defeat an experienced and talented team like Boston is certainly asking a lot. There are only a handful of players in history who can answer that call. The jury is still out on whether or not Lebron is one of them.

At this point I’m not sure which is worse--- rooting for a team that has no prayer of even competing for the playoffs (which I did for over a decade with the Cavs) or rooting for a team whose season ends in pure heartache year after year. I so desperately want Lebron to bring a title to the Cavs that I can hardly stomach the end of the season when he doesn’t.

It’s far from Lebron’s “fault” of course. He hasn’t had the supporting cast that other stars have had in the past or have right now. At the same time, his game “shrank” in this post-season for whatever reason. It’s baffling, frustrating, and painful all at once.

I haven’t turned on sports radio in three days. I’ve dodged calls and emails from friends wanting to talk about the series.

Not only are we dealing with the sinking feeling of not attaining our goal, but we’re also tossing the heavy weight of Lebron’s future on our shoulders. As much as I love the guy and what he’s done for my team—I am a Cavs fan first and a Lebron fan second. If he leaves, I will not be going with him.

“If he leaves.” Deep down of course, I hope he doesn’t. Because if he stays, so does hope.

But we see where “hope” has gotten us thus far. And I’m not sure I can take it anymore.

2009-2010 OU Final Season Review/Grades/Look Ahead

2010-03-11T08:23:00.001-06:00

As a die-hard fan of all my teams, I’m always a bit sad when a season comes to an end. But as the clock wound down in our game against the Pokes last night, I felt no sadness—just pure and utter relief. I was so happy that the misery was finally over. As a true fan, I wasn’t able to simply turn my back on this team and stop watching—even though they rarely earned my support. It was a good feeling waking up this morning knowing that I didn’t have to watch this team for one more minute this year.

I’ve given out grades/reviews in each of Capel’s first three years. His grades thus far have been A-, A, and A-. That’s a pretty stellar report card for such a young coach that took over an empty cupboard. I’m still baffled as to how we could tank so completely this season.

All I know is that I’m sorry it happened, I’m sorry I saw almost every minute of it, and I’m very thankful it’s over.

Final Season Grades:

(Grades are based on performance vs. expectation, with a dash of “intangible” mixed in. Seniors get two grades—season and career.)

Capel/Coaching Staff: D-. I will spare the staff an “F” simply because I do think that Capel realized the problem early in the season—he simply couldn’t figure out how to fix it. I appreciate his honesty and I am still a believer in Capel. Having said that, even his biggest fan/apologist (me) can’t put a positive spin on this year.

Tony Crocker: B. He had a really solid season that got lost amidst our misery. He was consistently the only one on the team that could be relied upon to bring energy and leadership on a nightly basis. As always, he went into offensive funks, but his effort never waned.

Career: B+. I will always remember Crocker for two things: Honoring his commitment when the other kids in his class bolted; and coming through in some dramatic spots throughout his career. Just awesome that the best game of his career came in the Sweet 16 against a favored Syracuse squad. Crocker got the most out of what he had. Capel could use more like him.

Ryan Wright: C. Average at best. I’ll give him this grade based more on his achievements off the floor than on it. By all accounts Wright is an excellent student and great guy who tried very hard to be a positive influence on our knucklehead freshmen. Problem for Wright was that he simply wasn’t very skilled.

Career: C-. Maybe we expected too much out of him simply because he came from UCLA. Made zero impact his junior year (when we could have used a solid back-up big man) and even though he improved his senior year, it wasn’t nearly enough. Good representative for the school, but disappointing results on the court.

Cade Davis: B-. He was cruising for an A early in the year, but his production dwindled dramatically down the stretch. Unfortunately, I think his effort seemed to do the same. It seemed he got “infected” late in the year with the general malaise that struck the whole team. Technically, he shot the ball way too often. He proved to be a pretty good weapon when he used his size and athleticsm to take the ball to the rim, crash the boards, and hassle his opponent. But too often he settled for life beyond the arc. We’ll need his senior leadership next year and I hope he decides to spend more time in the paint.

Willie Warren: D/Incomplete. Hard to fully judge Willie because I do believe that he was seriously injured from about mid-season on. Right before he got hurt, I thought he may have been turning a corner at least in his approach to the game, but it was too late by then. No doubt Willie’s attitude got the entire season off on the wrong foot and it set a horrible example for our freshmen. Willie did nothing to help galvanize the team early and his body language and his game were just “off” from the word go.

Ray Willis: C-. Barely got enough minutes to qualify for a grade, but life is all about opportunities—Willis had a few fleeting opportunities this season and he failed to capitalize. He’s fun to watch in those ugly blowout games early in the season because he’ll launch from anywhere at anytime, but when he was inserted into more meaningful action, he failed to impress.

Steven Pledger: F. Strictly on the floor, he probably earned a C-, but his shoplifiting fiasco derailed the only momentum we ever had this year. Kid can shoot, and might be a good specialist down the road, but he showed little else.

Andrew Fitzgerald: D-. Fitz’s gets an awful grade for much the same reason that Pledger got his---the shoplifiting incident was the lowest point of a season full of lowest points. Think it’s a total coincidence that we were 13-9 (4-4) before they headed to the mall that night, and then didn’t win another game all year? Fitz did show some marked improvement on the floor over the past 10 games or so.

Tommy Mason-Griffin: C. This may seem a bit harsh considering TMG finished the year with some impressive numbers, but I think he was a big part of the problem in the cohesion department this year. He is a gifted scorer/shooter who has a great knack for getting himself good looks despite his size. And at times, he showed flashes of being a good passer who can set up his teammates. But his ball handling skills and decision making often bordered on horrendous. His defense was mostly atrocious. He had a run there in the middle of the season where he honestly looked like he could challenge for all-conference honors, but he regressed late in the year and his lack of hustle was apparent down the stretch. I hope I’m wrong, but I wouldn’t be shocked if TMG isn’t on the roster next year. He does have tremendous upside.

Tiny Gallon: C-. Some may think this isn’t low enough—but I think Tiny may be getting a bit too much of the blame for this season. Having said that, he certainly wasn’t part of the solution either. His “flashes” were occasionally brilliant, but they were almost always fleeting. We were lucky to see the “good” Tiny for a half, much less in back to back games. There is truly a great canvas with which to work when it comes to Tiny, but unless he totally commits himself to basketball, he will never reach that potential. His offensive game is impressive, but inconsistent. His defense was beyond disgusting.

Awards:

MVP: Tommy Mason-Griffin. Hard to give an MVP award out after a season like this, but if I had to do it, TMG would get it—our best moments of the year came when he was going off.

Defensive MVP: Cade Davis. Very good individual defender—especially in the first ¾ of the season.

Worst Individual Moment: The shoplfiting incident after the Texas win was an absolute killer for a team that was already a bit fragile.

Best Individual Moment: Racked my brain for this one and came up with Crocker’s 28 point first half early in the year. It meant nothing, but it was fun to watch.

Worst Loss: Take your pick. I’ll go with the loss to Tech at home by one point. It was our first loss of the year at home and I think that defeat officially zapped us of any energy we had for the remainder of the year. Again, we were short-handed that night due to the shoplifters.

Best Win: Texas, I guess. I enjoyed the win in Utah because at the time I thought we were turning a corner—but that proved to be a mirage. When we beat Texas, it appeared our season was worth saving.

Overall Season Grade: F. The only redeeming thing about this year was that it was SO bad that no one can be delusional about what needs to happen going forward. It was truly a miserable year. Things looked “wrong” when we were in Alaska way back in November, and it never got any better. Capel knew very early something was wrong, and he tried to “warn” everyone of things to come. One of the most memorable moments of the year was his radio interview with Bob Barry Sr. after the Northern Colorado game. Barry said, “I thought the guys played hard down the stretch.” Capel responded, “I’m glad you think that” and went on to blast the effort of the team, saying we’d probably get run over by UTEP in the next game. He was right, and despite a very brief mid-season “peak,” the season devolved from there.

Looking Ahead: Again, I’m a Capel guy. I’ll take his first three “A” seasons as evidence he can coach as opposed to this lousy season. For now, it’s a mulligan in my book. But it must turn around NEXT year. No excuses. I don’t think there is a win total that needs to be reached or anything concrete like that— Capel simply needs to right the ship in terms of how the team comes together. There needs to be discipline both on and off the floor and the team needs to be better next March than they will be next November.

In strict basketball terms, we must get stronger inside. The returning big men need to improve drastically on defense and commit themselves to being a presence in the paint. I’m usually not a big fan of JUCO kids, but this is a year where I wouldn’t mind seeing Capel go that route and bring in a couple of bangers down low. They need not be overly skilled—just a couple of brutes that can give us minutes and push Tiny and Fitz in practice.

For now, we’ll assume TMG returns. He needs to spend the entire off-season working on ball skills—on both ends of the floor. The guy can score, and I love that about him, but he’s far from the floor general we’ll need from our PG.

Cameron Clark should bring us something we desperately need—athleticism and size on the wing. I’m excited to see how he impacts the team. I’m also hopeful that Capel can finalize the deal on a few other top recruits that are still in play.

The big question heading into next year is Willie. Part of me wants him back for obvious reasons. Part of me wants him gone so we can go with a clean slate—if Willie truly is a bad influence on the young guys, then I’d just as soon see him leave. This is a tough call—and I have a feeling that this will be Capel’s most difficult decision. Maybe Willie will make it for him?

All in all, I have not lost faith in Capel or program. But this season will go down a major black mark on everyone’s resume. Capel had a ton of momentum going for the program headed into this year and most, if not all of that momentum was halted this year. He has some pieces in place already with a few more on the way. Capel now needs to determine which pieces can build us back up and which pieces caused the explosion in the first place.

Super Bowl Picks, Pats, and Pardons

2010-02-07T08:22:00.003-06:00

Strictly for the record....

Last Week: 2-0
Playoffs: 6-4

Season: 168-88
Redskins: 13-3
Against the Spread: 32-36
Lock of the Week: 5-12

Super Bowl Pick:

Indianapolis vs. New Orleans: Like many prognosticators out there, I'm going the easy route and sticking with Peyton Manning. I do think New Orleans makes it interesting, but Manning ultimately has the last laugh.

Colts 27, Saints 23

Divisional Playoffs Picks, Pats, and Pardons

2010-01-16T08:21:00.002-06:00

Last Week: 1-3
Playoffs: 1-3

Season: 168-88
Redskins: 13-3
Against the Spread: 32-36
Lock of the Week: 5-12

This Week's Picks:

Arizona at New Orleans: Every fiber in my body says to pick the Cardinals, but for some reason I just can’t pull the trigger. Can’t quite reconcile the Saints 13-0 start with their 0-3 finish. Not sure what team to expect on Saturday, but I have a hard time seeing Drew Brees going out quietly. Arizona played an epic game last Sunday, they come back on short rest, and they are a bit banged up. I expect another high-octane affair and I’m just not sure the Cardinals will keep up. Having said that, this is as close to a “coin toss” game as it gets for me.

Saints 30, Cardinals 27

Baltimore at Indianapolis: I see lots of folks making this their upset of the weekend, but I’m not buying it. The Ravens were extremely impressive last week, but they caught a New England team that just wasn’t “right” all year long. While I hate the fact that Indy thwarted their own momentum by tanking the last game and a half of the season, I do expect them to be very sharp. The Ravens have struggled to stop good quarterbacks all season long and Peyton Manning will expose that once again. I do think the Ravens can keep this game close due to the fact that they run the ball so well, but Manning and his Colts will be hosting the AFC Title Game next week.

Colts 27, Ravens 20

Dallas at Minnesota: For whatever reason, a sense of calm has come over me when it comes to this game. What Dallas has done over the past several weeks has been more than impressive. Not only has Tony Romo responded emphatically to his critics, but the Cowboys defense has been nothing short of stellar. Dallas made a solid Philly team look silly two weeks in a row. This is a great match-up because both teams are so balanced—both can run, pass, stop the run, and stop the pass. Having said that, this is also a game between two franchises that have had little to no post-season success in the past 15 years or so—I could see one or both of them being tight. I can’t quite pinpoint why I feel the way I do about this game, but I have a vision of the Vikings making things look much easier than most would anticipate.

Vikings 31, Cowboys 17

New York Jets at San Diego: By far the easiest game of the weekend to call. I respect what the Jets have done to close out the season, but I also think that got extraordinarily lucky. Catching the Colts and Bengals to close the season was a God-send and let’s not forget that Indy was handling them with ease before the Colts decided to quit. Cincinnati was on life-support the last 6-7 weeks of the season and I’m not sure they would have beaten anyone last week. Again, the Jets have made it here and for that, they deserve a credit and certain amount of respect. But I think they are more lucky than good—and their luck runs out Sunday.

Chargers 26, Jets 13

Wild Card Weekend Picks, Pats, and Pardons

2010-01-09T12:46:00.002-06:00

Last Week: 10-6
Redskins: 1-0
Against the Spread: 1-3
Lock of the Week: 0-1

Season: 168-88
Redskins: 13-3
Against the Spread: 32-36
Lock of the Week: 5-12

Regular Season Review: 2009 marks my highest win total to date-- beat last year's mark by one half game. Very steady the past three years, earning 166, 167, and now 168 wins for the year. Averages out to just a tad under 10 wins and a tad over 5 losses per week... a solid pace. However, I did regress on my picks against the spread this year and had a dreadful time with my locks of the week. I followed back to back 10 win seasons in my locks with this miserable 5-12 effort this year. Pardons to anyone who used my locks as a tool this year....you probably didn't use them for very long if you did. Won't brag too much about my 13-3 record picking Redskins game...they made it pretty easy for me this year.

I've struggled picking playoff winners the past two years and look to rebound this post-season. Here are my selections for Wild Card Weekend:

New York Jets at Cincinnati: I'm going to go against the grain here a bit. The public and analysts alike are jumping all over the Jets-- and possibly with good reason. Stopping the run + running the ball has always been a pretty safe winning combination in the NFL and the Jets do both of those things quite well. The Bengals on the other hand, have looked average at best over the past 6 weeks or so and there is reasonable concern that they won't be able to simply "flip the switch" come gametime. But something tells me that the Bengals team we saw in the first half of the season might reappear on Saturday. The Jets still struggle to score points and I think Cincy might be able to force Mark Sanchez into some costly errors. As a wagering man, I would not touch this game with a 10 foot pole, but for the record, I like the Bengals.

Bengals 17, Jets 15

Philadelphia at Dallas: Quite possibly the most over-analyzed wild card game in history-- not sure I have much to add. The way Dallas drubbed Philly last week was shocking, and it's hard to picture the Eagles completely flipping the script this week. However, the playoff doubts that surround Tony Romo, Wade Phillips, and the Cowboys in general will linger until they prove otherwise. This is a monumental game for the Cowboys and the direction of their franchise-- any playoff game is obviously a "must win" but those two words take on special meaning for Dallas this week. I'm siding with the home team to exorcise their demons and advance, but if this one is close late, look for the noose to tighten quickly.

Cowboys 23, Eagles 17

Baltimore at New England: The Patriots look ripe for the picking, but I'd be a tad concerned about a cornerned New England squad suddenly playing the underdog role this post-season. Baltimore can score, but I don't trust that their defense will be able to slow down Tom Brady enough to get the win.

Patriots 27, Ravens 20

Green Bay at Arizona: Went against the grain in the Cincy game, but I'll fall into line on this one. I think this will be the best/most entertaining game of the week, with the winner having a legitimate shot to cause further damage in the NFC playoffs. Green Bay is on fire and extremely well balanced. Arizona has slogged through the past several weeks, but this is familiar territory for them and I fully expect them to draw on their experience from last year and produce a hearty effort. But I think Aaaron Rodgers' time is now.

Packers 29, Cardinals 27

Shanahan Will Only Succeed If He's "All In"

2010-01-07T08:14:00.000-06:00

I’ve received several emails and text messages from friends wanting to know my reaction to the Mike Shanahan hiring in Washington. I had one friend ask me if I was “fully erect” over the announcement—yes, it’s mildly embarrassing that so many people think of me in such terms, but I digress. Here are my thoughts in quick-hit form:

1.The Redskins did the right thing. The 2009 season can be considered rock bottom both on and off the field. A 4-12 disaster coincided with a fan revolt like I’ve never experienced before. A very proud fanbase is beyond jaded, fractured, and in danger of falling apart. Dan Snyder was always teetering on the edge with many Redskins fans, but the events of this year pushed the majority over the edge—Snyder officially became the target of 20 years of anger and frustration. He had no wiggle room. Drastic changes had to be made and they had to be immediately.

By firing Vinny Cerrato and bringing in Bruce Allen and Mike Shanahan, Snyder essentially “fired himself” as well—at least on paper. Aside from selling the team, there is little else he could have done that would have appeased his angry mob of customers. By making these moves, it appears as if Snyder has gotten the mob to put down their torches. But they haven’t been extinguished yet. And they won’t be until the results the Redskins routinely get from February to August are matched by what they do from September to January.

2.The Redskins did the right thing. Shanahan is a proven winner. He’s been wildly successful in each of his stops, save his 20 game stint with the Raiders in the late 80’s. He has two Super Bowl rings and he’s taken a team to a conference title game as recently as 2005. His track record as a personnel man is not as stellar, but this is where the marriage between he and Allen appears to be a smart move—and a move the Redskins have failed to make in the past.

The Redskins desperately needed a proven winner and a proven leader. Having said that, I am fearful that a year and a half from now, Shanahan might roll out of bed one morning, realize that this task was tougher than he thought and say to himself, “I don’t need this. I’ll take Danny’s money, my two Super Bowl rings, and ride off into the sunset.” Shanahan left Denver under less than ideal circumstances, so like most everyone else in this world, he still has something to prove. But no matter what he does in Washington, he will always be able to fall back on his success with the Broncos—and that is a bit worrisome from a Redskins fan standpoint. I have no doubt that Shanahan will come in guns blazing and go all-out to get things going in the right direction…at first. But what if things start slowly? What if it takes longer than he anticipates? What if the front office structure isn’t quite as rosy a year from now as it is today? Is Shanahan committed for the long haul?

3.The Redskins did the right thing. But have things truly changed? Only time will tell if Snyder has officially eliminated himself from the equation. Even though he hired Allen, it is clear that Snyder himself courted Shanahan for months, if not years. It does not appear as if Allen was given free reign to find his own coach. Snyder was still clearly heavily involved. In the end, he landed a universally respected coach, so it may very well work. And it may very well not.

4.The Redskins did the right thing. But make no mistake, Shanahan has more than just tackling, blocking, and passing to worry about. In addition to a myriad of on-field concerns, Shanahan is also charged with trying to build back the confidence and pride of a completely crumbled franchise. The ship is not sinking. It’s sunk. It’s stuck on the bottom of the ocean with twenty years of anchors holding it down. It is going to take more than a few crafty free agent signings or a nice draft to resurrect this ship. It is going to take a clear vision, dedication, and a little bit of luck.

5.The Redskins did the right thing, and as a fan, I’m happy with the current direction. But I’m not doing cartwheels in the street or making travel plans for playoff time next year. Because even though the Redskins did the right thing, it doesn’t mean it’s going to work. Fool me once, shame on me. Fool for me twenty years? I’ll take a wait and see approach.

Week Seventeen Picks, Pats, and Pardons

2010-01-02T20:44:00.002-06:00

Just flat out lazy and unmotivated right now. I'll try to get back on track with the playoffs starting next week. Submitting my picks this week just for the sake of my record.

Last Week: 8-8
Redskins: 1-0
Against the Spread: 0-4
Lock of the Week: 0-1

Season: 158-82
Redskins: 12-3
Against the Spread: 31-33
Lock of the Week: 5-11

This Week's Picks:

Colts 20, Bills 16

Panthers 22, Saints 17

Browns 17, Jaguars 16

Cowboys 23, Eagles 20

Lions 27, Bears 24

Patriots 24, Texans 21

Steelers 28, Dolphins 20

Vikings 26, Giants 17

Jets 20, Bengals 13

49ers 27, Rams 24

Bucs 26, Falcons 23

Cardinals 31, Packers 21

Broncos 23, Chiefs 9

Ravens 19, Raiders 16

Chargers 30, Redskins 13

Titans 34, Seahawks 30

Lock of the Week

Rams (+7.5) vs. 49ers

2. Chargers (-5.5) vs. Redskins

3. Colts (+8) at Bills

4. Steelers (Pick Em) at Dolphins

Week Sixteen Picks, Pats, and Pardons

2009-12-26T21:06:00.003-06:00

Christmas craziness brings yet another short version this week. I am making my picks AFTER the Titans-Chargers game, but I can be honest and admit I had the Titans checked on my list.

Last Week: 9-7
Redskins: 0-1
Against the Spread: 2-2
Lock of the Week: 0-1

Season: 150-74
Redskins: 11-3
Against the Spread: 31-29
Lock of the Week: 5-10

This Week's Picks:

Packers 30, Seahawks 14

Raiders 16, Browns 14

Bengals 29, Chiefs 16

Falcons 28, Bills 13

Dolphins 23, Texans 20

Giants 31, Panthers 17

Saints 38, Bucs 14

Patriots 26, Jaguars 17

Ravens 20, Steelers 17

Eagles 27, Broncos 10

Cardinals 36, Rams 14

49ers 26, Lions 21

Colts 27, Jets 17

Cowboys 30, Redskins 17

Vikings 19, Bears 16

Lock of the Week

Colts (-4) vs. Jets

2. Saints (-14) vs. Bucs

3. Giants (-8) vs. Panthers

4. Eagles (-7) vs. Broncos

Week Fifteen Picks, Pats, and Pardons

2009-12-17T06:51:00.003-06:00

Another truncated version this week....

Last Week: 12-4
Redskins: 1-0
Against the Spread: 2-2
Lock of the Week: 0-1

Season: 141-67
Redskins: 11-2
Against the Spread: 29-27
Lock of the Week: 5-9

This Week's Picks:

Colts 27, Jaguars 20

Saints 30, Cowboys 24

Steelers 20, Packers 17

Titans 19, Dolphins 16

Patriots 24, Bills 17

Cardinals 31, Lions 20

Eagles 26, 49ers 20

Jets 20, Falcons 19

Ravens 27, Bears 16

Chiefs 23, Browns 20

Texans 30, Rams 21

Chargers 24, Bengals 21

Broncos 28, Raiders 7

Seahawks 22, Bucs 19

Vikings 27, Panthers 20

Redskins 25, Giants 22

Lock of the Week

Broncos (-14) vs. Raiders

2. 49ers (+8.5) at Eagles

3. Bengals (+6.5) at Chargers

4. Colts (-3) vs. Jaguars

Week Fourteen Picks, Pats, and Pardons

2009-12-10T07:28:00.002-06:00

Gotta make it short and sweet this week...

Last Week: 9-7
Redskins: 1-0
Against the Spread: 1-3
Lock of the Week: 0-1

Season: 129-63
Redskins: 10-2
Against the Spread: 27-25
Lock of the Week: 5-8

This Week's Picks:

Steelers 24, Browns 9

Colts 27, Broncos 17

Vikings 30, Bengals 16

Bucs 19, Jets 16

Chiefs 20, Bills 17

Packers 26, Bears 20

Saints 34, Falcons 20

Ravens 26, Lions 13

Dolphins 23, Jaguars 20

Patriots 29, Panthers 13

Texans 30, Seahawks 27

Titans 27, Rams 14

Redskins 20, Raiders 17

Chargers 28, Cowboys 26

Giants 27, Eagles 23

49ers 23, Cardinals 21

Lock of the Week

Giants (-1) vs. Eagles

2. 49ers (+3.5) vs. Cardinals

3. Vikings (-6.5) vs. Bengals

4. Bucs (+3) vs. Jets

Week Thirteen Picks, Pats, and Pardons

2009-12-03T08:39:00.002-06:00

Last Week: 13-3
Redskins: 0-1
Against the Spread: 3-1
Lock of the Week: 0-1

Season: 120-56
Redskins: 9-2
Against the Spread: 26-22
Lock of the Week: 5-7

Last Week's Pats: Back to back 13 win weeks! Oddly enough, I missed my lock again this week, but still hit 3 out of 4 games against the spread. I also was just a few points off predicting the final score in both the Vikings-Bears and Ravens-Steelers games. And if the Redskins could have held on on Philly....

Last Week's Pardons: Really dumb move by move to lock AGAINST the Saints in that situation. I got what I deserved there.

This Week's Picks:

New York Jets at Buffalo (Toronto): Torn on this one-- not a particularly appealing game either way. Considering Buffalo won the first meeting, I'll say New York gets a bit of revenge, but I'm honestly pretty clueless on this one.

Jets 20, Bills 17

Denver at Kansas City: Are the Broncos the team that ran the Giants off the field last Thursday or are they the team that lost three in a row (all by double digits) prior to that game? Maybe it's somewhere in the middle, but I tend to lean towards the latter.

Chiefs 17, Broncos 16

Oakland at Pittsburgh: Easy call here...I don't care who plays QB for Pittsburgh, the Steelers aren't going down at home to the Raiders in what amounts to a must-win game for Pittsburgh.

Steelers 27, Raiders 9

Houston at Jacksonville: Two teams that may have proven to be pretenders with their performances last week. Neither team can be considered a reliable pick at this point, but I like the Texans to go on the road and keep their playoff hopes alive.

Texans 27, Jaguars 23

Tennessee at Indianapolis: If the Titans pull this one off, we'll have to start viewing Tennessee as potentially one of the biggest stories in the NFL....of all time. From 0-6 to serious playoff contention is unheard of. The Colts have flirted with loss #1 a couple of times now-- I say the Titans get it done.

Titans 28, Colts 26

Philadelphia at Atlanta: This is the kind of game that Donovan McNabb and Andy Reid have been winning for a decade. I see no reason to see it changing this week. Atlanta stays close, but Philly finds a way.

Eagles 23, Falcons 20

Detroit at Cincinnati: Back to back home games with the Browns and Lions? I'd call that an early Christmas present for the Bengals.

Bengals 30, Lions 20

New Orleans at Washington: I'd love to pull the trigger here, I really would....the Redskins are playing their best football of the season. Granted, it still hasn't been good enough to win and it's doubtful that trend changes this week against the undefeated Saints. But be wary of a New Orleans team coming off a short week and such an emotional victory. In the end, the Redskins won't be able to keep up, but they will keep it interesting.

Saints 31, Redskins 23

Tampa Bay at Carolina: Panthers are officially playing out the string now. I still respect John Fox enough to have his team ready to play, but don't be surprised at all if Tampa covers or even wins outright.

Panthers 22, Bucs 20

St. Louis at Chicago: Jay Cutler could REALLY use a game against the Rams defense right now. Having said that, don't be surprised one bit if St. Louis makes this a game.

Bears 27, Rams 24

San Diego at Cleveland: Chargers fans must be wary of the annual letdown that seems inevitable with Norv Turner coached teams, but I'm not sure Cleveland has the ability to expose anyone at this juncture. Look for ugliness in Cleveland this Sunday.

Chargers 26, Browns 12

San Francisco at Seattle: Another major toss up. Seattle has gone from being one of the biggest home powerhouses in the NFL to drawing a Pick Em' against a team that enters the game below .500. I wouldn't touch this game with a 10 foot pole, but if you had the perverbial gun to my head, I'd have to side with the home team.

Seahawks 21, 49ers 20

Dallas at New York Giants: Shocking to see the Giants as home underdogs. Not saying it isn't founded in reality, but shocking to be sure. I guess I'm just not ready to annoit the Cowboys or bury the Giants quite yet. Recent late-season history leads me to lean towards the G-Men.

Giants 24, Cowboys 23

New England at Miami: Look for the Patriots to take out some frustration on the Dolphins this week. Unfortunately for the Pats, it doesn't appear they are capable of taking out their frustration on the elite teams in the league anymore.

Patriots 34, Dolphins 23

Minnesota at Arizona: Could be a highly entertaining game, as I see Arizona pulling out all the stops and playing at a high level this week. Having said that, Minnesota is simply better and I don't think Cardinals can get enough stops to win.

Vikings 31, Cardinals 27

Baltimore at Green Bay: I've had a mini-obsession with the Ravens this year and I see no need to back away from it now. Baltimore pulls the upset.

Ravens 27, Packers 24

Lock of the Week

Patriots (-5.5) at Dolphins. Fool me once....

2. Chiefs (+4.5) vs. Broncos. Not buying the Broncos resurgence.

3. Titans (+6.5) at Colts. They may not pull the upset, but I don't see Tennesee going out softly.

4. Redskins (+9.5) vs. Saints. I'm comfortbale with the Redskins recent trend-- three covers in a row, all rather easily.

Week Twelve Picks, Pats, and Pardons

2009-11-26T10:03:00.002-06:00

Last Week: 13-3
Redskins: 1-0
Against the Spread: 2-2
Lock of the Week: 0-1

Season: 107-53
Redskins: 9-1
Against the Spread: 23-21
Lock of the Week: 5-6

Last Week's Pats: Called a couple of road teams to pull upsets- Dolphins and Titans. Also successfully warned against taking the Jaguars against the spread. Correctly predicted the Patriots to cover against the Jets.

Last Week's Pardons: Totally blew my lock of the week-- Pittsburgh outgained and outplayed Kansas City for much of that game, but the Chiefs made big plays and the Steelers couldn't shake them. Not only did I lose my lock of the week, but for the second time in three years the Chiefs have eliminated me from my Survivor League.

This Week's Picks:

Green Bay at Detroit: The Lions are SO do to make things interesting on Thanksgiving. I think this is the spot where they do it. The Packers have looked solid the past two weeks, but they suffered a couple of devestating injuries on defense in the second half of last week's game and Detroit should come in motivated and excited to play after their thrilling win last week. If Stafford and Calvin Johnson see the field, this could be a major upset. But even if they don't, I like Detroit to hang in a high-scoring affair.

Packers 34, Lions 26

Oakland at Dallas: The problems Dallas has had the past two weeks on the offensive side of the ball are not a mirage. Their passing game has grinded to a halt and they've suddenly become a team that can't stretch the field or make big plays. Oakland is certainly capable of "curing" the Cowboys offensive woes, but I think this one stays ugly.

Cowboys 22, Raiders 13

New York Giants at Denver: So much for the Josh McDaniels Coach of the Year campaign. Four straight losses (including getting dominated at home last week by San Diego) have the Broncos reeling and searching for ANY lifeline offensively. The Giants defense has been dreadful in recent weeks and you'd figure Denver is going to play with some desperation. Still, I don't see the Broncos getting it done.

Giants 24, Broncos 17

Indianapolis at Houston: Last week was a defining game for the Titans-- and as someone who has followed them closely for three years, I saw the letdown coming a mile away. This is normally a spot where I'd feel pretty comfortbale going with an upset, but I wonder if last week's loss didn't take the wind out of Houston's sails.

Colts 27, Texans 20

Cleveland at Cincinnati: I don't think it was a big deal that Cincy went to Oakland last week and played down to their competiton-- but it does concern me that they didn't find a way to pull it out. Those kinds of losses keep from thinking that the Bengals are legit contender in the AFC. Having said that, they will feast on a Cleveland team that has to be close to totally packing it in for the year.

Bengals 30, Browns 10

Chicago at Minnesota: On paper, the Vikings seem due to get challenged. But games aren't played on paper. I bet Jay Cutler wishes they were.

Vikings 36, Bears 17

Washington at Philadelphia: Before anyone calls me a homer, may I first point out that I am 9-1 predicting my Redskins this year. I'm not going to go into any in-depth analysis on this one other than to say I have a vision-- a gut feel if you will.

Redskins 16, Eagles 13

Miami at Buffalo: Another game that screams upset to me despite all facts suggesting otherwise.

Bills 20, Dolphins 17

Arizona at Tennessee: You can't get hotter than the Titans right now. And up until this season the Cardinals were miserable when traveling to the eastern time zone. I think this game has the makings for a laugher, but I'll temper those thoughts and say Arizona keeps it close.

Titans 28, Cardinals 23

Seattle at St. Louis: Total coin-flip game. Seattle has been one of the biggest disappointments in the league this year. As a Redskin fan, I am so glad we didn't wind up with Jim Mora Jr. two years ago. I have a small feeling to side with the home team here, but I'll play the odds and go with the favorite.

Seahawks 27, Rams 21

Tampa Bay at Atlanta: Last week I said to tread lightly on the Jags if you were the gambling sort-- this week I am using that same piece of advice for Atlanta. I don't see Tampa pulling the upset, but I wouldn't be surprised at all to see them cover the 12 points-- the Falcons simply aren't the team many (myself included) believed them to be prior to the season.

Falcons 27, Bucs 19

Carolina at New York Jets: Another game that is more or less a coin flip. Two teams headed nowhere fast, both clinging to desperate and fast-fading playoff hopes. Rex Ryan looks like a moron right now with all of his early season jabbering and chest pumping. Go with the Jets on Sunday, but be ready for anything.

Jets 24, Panthers 21

Jacksonville at San Francisco: The Jaguars are by far the most quiet of all legitimate playoff contenders in the entire league. They have completely flown under the radar and put themselves in position to make a run at the post-season. Call me cynical, but I'm still not buying them. I think things crumble on them a bit this week.

49ers 26, Jaguars 14

Kansas City at San Diego: For the second year in a row, the Broncos are handing the division to the Chargers on a silver platter. This year, the Chargers are taking advantage much earlier. The takeover continues this week.

Chargers 34, Chiefs 20

Pittsburgh at Baltimore: Shockingly this game has gone from a potential battle for the divsion and homefield in the playoffs, to possibly a battle to simply stay alive in the playoff race. I rode the Ravens to some early success this year, but they've fallen on hard times lately as their offense has slowly regressed. I'm very torn on which way to go here, but I think I'll stick with Baltimore one more week before jumping off the bandwagon.

Ravens 23, Steelers 20

New England at New Orleans: It makes me a bit wary that everyone and their dog is picking the Patriots to win this game outright, but it just makes sense. Despite their records, I still believe New England is the better team here.

Patriots 31, Saints 27

Lock of the Week

Patriots (+2) at Saints. Patriots covered in this same situation two weeks ago in Indy, and I'm comfortbale locking them once again against an undefeated
team.

2. Titans (-2) vs. Cardinals. Tennessee is rolling and it won't stop this week.

3. 49ers (-3) vs. Jaguars. A bit of a hunch here, based on the belief that Jacksonville is a bit of a mirage.

4. Redskins (+9) at Eagles. Probably the kiss of death for Washington, but I'll roll with it.

Week Eleven Picks, Pats, and Pardons

2009-11-19T05:44:00.004-06:00

Last Week: 9-6
Redskins: 1-0
Against the Spread: 1-3
Lock of the Week: 1-0

Season: 94-50
Redskins: 8-1
Against the Spread: 21-19
Lock of the Week: 5-5

Last Week's Pats: Picked a couple of outright underdog winners-- Redskins and Chiefs. Also pinned down my Lock of the Week (Patriots).

Last Week's Pardons: Missed badly on the Falcons game--Atlanta is a team I've been riding all year and it may be time to hit the eject button. Also thought Dallas would win a shootout in Green Bay-- way off on both the outcome and the style of game.

This Week's Picks:

Miami at Carolina: Rolling with a gut feeling here that Miami finds a way to pull the upset-- I think Ricky Williams will fill in admirably for Ronnie Brown.

Dolphins 23, Panthers 20

Cleveland at Detroit: It just doesn't seem fair that two cities under such dire economic stress should have to suffer further, but I guess them's the breaks.

Lions 19, Browns 13

Buffalo at Jacksonville: Always a tricky spot to predict how a team will react emotionally the week following a coaching change. Going with the Jags, but if you put cash down on the games, I'd stay away.

Jaguars 27, Bills 17

Pittsburgh at Kansas City: Kansas City is a good place to visit if you are in need of a bounce-back victory. Pittsburgh should have this one wrapped up by halftime.

Steelers 31, Chiefs 14

Indianapolis at Baltimore: The Colts have been flirting with their first loss for several weeks now and they've been failing to cover the spread in the process. I see Baltimore getting themselves back into the AFC playoff hunt with a big win.

Ravens 27, Colts 23

Atlanta at New York Giants: All of a sudden this is a game of desperation and survival for both teams; the loser will find themselves scrambling to have any hope of making the post-season. They say "never bet the due," but I just can't see the Giants dropping five in a row.

Giants 28, Falcons 20

San Francisco at Green Bay: Packers have been a tough team to peg all season namely because their defense shows up about once every three games. They were extremely impressive in shutting down the Cowboys last week, but I'm not convinced they can carry that performance over to this week. Ultimately, the Packers will score enough to win, but tread lightly on this one.

Packers 29, 49ers 24

Seattle at Minnesota: Last week was probably the Seahawks last realistic chance to get themselves back into the race-- they looked good for three quarters in Arizona, but fell apart late. I think that loss has probably taken the wind out of their sails. I see another workmanlike win for the Vikes.

Vikings 31, Seahawks 17

Washington at Dallas: I wish I could say anything is possible in rivalry games, but this once proud rivalry has been on life support for almost two decades. George Allen once said that he'd fight Tom Landry at the 50 yard line if he had to. Jim Zorn and Wade Phillips will probably give each other a hug...after an easy Cowboy win.

Cowboys 31, Redskins 13

New Orleans at Tampa Bay: Tampa has been much better with Josh Freeman at the helm and they are playing with good energy right now. Having said that, Freeman won't be able to keep pace with Drew Brees who looks to bounce back from his first "meh" performance of the year.

Saints 34, Bucs 20

Arizona at St. Louis: Much like Tampa, the Rams look suddenly competent and the Cardinals are always at risk for dropping a clunker. But I think Kurt Warner enjoys going back to St. Louis.

Cardinals 38, Rams 21

New York Jets at New England: Honestly, Rex Ryan looks like a complete jackass right now. His bravado and schtick have already grown old in New York. The Big Apple is not the place to pound your chest if you can't back it up. The Patriots roll.

Patriots 33, Jets 13

Cincinnati at Oakland: If there were any doubts heading into last week (and there were), the Bengals made them all go away by winning in Pittsburgh and finishing with a season sweep of both the Steelers and Ravens. Cincinnati is sitting pretty and while I could see them slogging through this game at Oakland, they'll make sure to get it done.

Bengals 20, Raiders 13

San Diego at Denver: Kyle Orton's iffy status makes a big difference here, but I'm taking the Chargers either way. The roof is caving on the Broncos.

Chargers 23, Broncos 13

Philadelphia at Chicago: Two extremely unimpressive teams right now battling for survival in the NFC playoff hunt. In this kind of match-up, I'll side with the "been there, done that" crew over an unproven and flailing Bears squad.

Eagles 27, Bears 20

Tennessee at Houston: I'll keep saying it: If any team can go from 0-6 to relevant, it's the Titans. This is a dangerous game for the Texans, partly because it's such an important one for them. Traditionally Houston has failed in games that have really mattered. I think the trend continues and the Titans pull the upset.

Titans 26, Texans 23

Lock of the Week

Steelers (-10) at Chiefs. Not sure how Kansas City is going to score.

2. Patriots (-11) vs. Jets. Pats get revenge in a big way.

3. Titans (+5) at Texans. I like Tennessee to win outright, I LOVE them to cover.

4. Cardinals/Rams OVER 46.5. Been riding the OVER in Arizona games for weeks--and it keeps hitting.

Joe's College Football Plays

YTD Record 33-27
+5.20 UNITS

Last Week: 2-3 (2.40 UNITS)

Week 12 Write-Ups:

327 Rutgers -7.5
328 Syracuse
Total 44.5

Rutgers is again playing its best football in the 2nd half of the season, winning and covering their last 3 games. This has all the making of a pasting as Rutgers coach Schiano will know that NY recruits will be in attendance for Syracuse and he will be looking to prove who the better program in the region is. Freshman QB Savage has been playing well of late, throwing 6 TD's and 2 picks against USF, Uconn, Army, and Pitt - and has thrown for over 1,500 yards on the season. Syracuse ranks in the bottom ten (out of 119) nationally in pass defense, giving up nearly 270 yards a game. Rutgers will be looking to cement 3rd place in the Big East and get themselves to a better bowl game. Orange QB Paulus has 14 picks on the season and should have trouble against an improving Rutgers D. Syracuse has 3 wins on the season - against Northwestern, Maine (1AA), and Akron. When stepping up in class the Orange have been dismantled losing to the likes of Pitt, Cincinnati, West Virginia, Penn State, and USF by a combined score of 161-57 - which averages out to 32-11. Rutgers is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 Big East tilts and the Scarlet Knights have covered 5 of the last 6 in this series winning the last 4 tilts by 18, 24, 31, and 22 respectively. Take the better team who will be aided by a point guard QB dishing picks to them all day in Upstate NY.
TAKE 327
2 UNITS.

315 Ohio State -11.5
316 Michigan
Total 47.5

The best rivalry in sports gets back to business this year in the "Big House" with a reeling Wolverine squad looking to put a stamp on an otherwise forgettable season with a victory against The Buckeyes that would make them bowl eligible. Ohio State comes in as the already crowned Big 10 champs with their tickets stamped to Pasadena - but no matter what this game will get the blood flowing and both teams will bring their "A" game. Ohio State needs this win to clinch the outright Big 10 title and would like nothing more than to make it 6 straight against the "team up North." While there has been talk in betting circles about an UNDER play in this game, I just don't see it. Michigan can't stop anybody and their offense will get some scores against Ohio State in a game that will feature the speed and athleticism of Forcier and Robinson, along with Pryor for the Buckeyes - it is also worth noting that Michigan RB Brandon Minor is healthy and good to go after playing against Wisconsin last week. Keep in mind the scoring of these 2 teams - Michigan has scored 24 and 36 the last 2 games, while allowing 45, 38, 38, and 35 points in their last 4 games. Ohio State has scored 27, 24, 45, and 38 in their last 4 games. The OVER is 8-2 in THE's last 10 games in November, 9-3 in Michigan's last 12 as a dawg, 7-3 in Michigan's last 10 tilts overall, AND has hit in 7 of the last 9 in this series - expect some fireworks early in Ann Arbor as the Buckeyes roll on their way to Pasadena.
TAKE 315 OVER
1 UNIT.

339 Vanderbilt
340 Tennessee -17
Total 45

Last week we played on the Commodores and were beat, this week we look to play against them in Nashville against Tennessee. The Vols are in a prime position to get bowl eligible in Lane Kiffin's first season at the helm, their first bowl game since 2007. With the dismissal over with and distraction gone from the robbery by the Vols players last week, they can get back on the field this week and focus on getting to a bowl and crushing their interstate rivals. Vandy comes in averaging 13 points per game in all but 2 games this season, and only scoring 13 or less in 5 of their last 6 games. Hennessy comes in holding their opponents to less than 20 points per game and comes in energized after getting tuned up by Ole' Miss last week. Some quotes from practice this week "That's the first game for a while that they have moved the ball around on us vs. our first defense,'' Kiffin said. "I know they're excited to get back out there and prove that that's not who they are. It will be interesting Saturday night, but I know they are excited about it.'' The Vols have lost 2 times in SEC play, after both losses they have produced the following spread covering victories: Home against Georgia 45-19 S/U and ATS W - Home against South Carolina 31-13 S/U and ATS W. Expect that trend to play out this Saturday as the Vols are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 SEC tilts, 7-2 ATS in their last 9 against a team with a losing record, as well as 4-1 ATS in their last 5 after a loss. Kick back with some Hennessy and watch Tennessee drum their little interstate brothers on Saturday.
TAKE 340
1 UNIT.

373 San Diego State
374 Utah -20
Total 54.5

Last week Utah was destroyed by TCU and still should be feeling the effects of that shellacking in Ft. Worth in which they were out first downed 32-11, outgained 549-284, and had their RB Eddie Wade held to 25 yards (the first time in 6 games in which he has been held under 100 yards). To make this situation even tastier for the Aztecs, the Utes have hated rival BYU on deck next week in what plays into a monster sandwich spot for us to play on HC Brady Hoke's State squad. SD's QB Lindly has been coming on of late and has led the Aztecs to scores of 27, 12, 23, 42, 28, and 34 points in MWC play - with the lone score of 12 coming against TCU, who has been dominating opponents all year. Utah lost 2 impact starters on defense last week in starting DE Shelby (who leads the team with 8 tackles for a loss) and has 44 tackles and 3 sacks on the season. The Utes also lost a starting Safety and another D-lineman (Kenape Eliapo). Some quotes from Salt Lake have the Utes calling last week's punishment "a humbling experience" and "it was disappointing, we never give up yards like that." Look for a still dazed Ute squad to sleep walk through a half or so and allow the Aztecs to keep this game comfortably within margin in what could be snowy conditions in Salt Lake.
TAKE 373
1 UNIT.

399 Army
400 North Texas -2.5
Total 51

In the last 3 games UNT has been giving up almost 210 yards a game and will face an Army team that is averaging 192 ground yards per game in their last 3 - Army ranks 14th nationally in rushing offense with an average of 213.3 yards a game and seventh in time of possession at 32:47 minutes a game - not a recipe for success for the lowly Mean Green to be laying points at the end of a season in which they are 2-8 S/U, with wins against Western Kentucky and Ball State, who are 2 of the worst teams in Division 1 this year. There really are no secrets as to what Army will do - run the triple option and keep the passing attack of UNT off the field - The question is if UNT can play the kind of assignment football with players handling the fullback dive, the quarterback on the keeper and the slot back on the option pitch - which will become increasingly difficult in a game that will wear down a UNT team that is going up against a motivated opponent and has thrown in the towel on their season. Army HC Ellerson was quoted "We need to be able to get the ball on offense, and not only be productive, but be productive in a way that does make it a little bit of a shorter game - We have to play Army football.” Army has held 5 opponents under 20 points this season and should do so this weekend in Denton, playing clock control and grinding out a win against a Mean Green squad that is playing out the string.
TAKE 399
1 UNIT.

Week Ten Picks, Pats, and Pardons

2009-11-11T08:59:00.003-06:00

Last Week: 8-5
Redskins: 1-0
Against the Spread: 3-1
Lock of the Week: 0-1

Season: 85-44
Redskins: 7-1
Against the Spread: 20-16
Lock of the Week: 4-5

Last Week's Pats: Correctly predicted the Cowboys to win a tight game in Philly-- Dallas is clearly the best team in the NFC East right now and I saw that going in. Despite losing my "lock" in the Ravens, I had a solid week against the spread, winning the other three picks-- including the Bucs to cover against the Pack.

Last Week's Pardons: I was extremely impressed with the Bengals last week. I expected their offense to have a decent day, but what their defense did to Joe Flacco and the Ravens was eye-opening. It will be a tall order, but if Cincy finds a way to win in Pittsburgh this week, they become (gulp!) a legit Super Bowl contender.

This Week's Picks:

Chicago at San Francisco: Desperation time for both squads. After somewhat promising starts both teams have looked sluggish in recent weeks. The Bears have been destroyed in two of their last three games, while the 49ers did almost pull an upset in Indy two weeks ago. I could see this game going either way, but I'll stick with the home team.

49ers 24, Bears 23

Jacksonville at New York Jets: We're looking at two "pretenders" here-- two teams I believe will be on outskirts of the playoff race down the stretch. I'll give the Jets the edge here coming off the bye.

Jets 24, Jaguars 17

Denver at Washington: Hard not to compare the 2009 Broncos to the 2008 Redskins-- both started 6-2; the Redskins offense then went into the tank. The Broncos offense has been showing signs of tanking for weeks. I wouldn't bet the house on it, but I see this as a real upset possibility.

Redskins 17, Broncos 16

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh: Just too many factors going against the Bengals this week-- the Steelers are at home, playing very well, and looking for revenge from that loss in Cincinnati. I like the Bengals, but not this week.

Steelers 27, Bengals 16

Buffalo at Tennessee: If any team in the league can go from 0-6 to competitive, it's the Titans. I look for them to have a strong second half of the season, starting Sunday.

Titans 28, Bills 10

Detroit at Minnesota: If you are still alive in your Survivor League and the Vikings are available, now would be the prime opportunity to select them.

Vikings 38, Lions 17

New Orleans at St. Louis: Gotta figure the Saints are due to lay an egg one of these weeks, but even if they do it in St. Louis, they'll still win going away.

Saints 35, Rams 13

Atlanta at Carolina: Critical game for both teams-- Carolina has been playing much better as of late, but Atlanta is the better team here.

Falcons 26, Panthers 23

Tampa Bay at Miami: Great debut for Josh Freeman in Tampa last week. I look for the rookie and his teammates to come back down to earth in Miami on Sunday.

Dolphins 27, Bucs 10

Kansas City at Oakland: Good seats still available...

Chiefs 16, Raiders 13

Seattle at Arizona: The Cardinals are almost impossible to pin down this year, unless you simply play the trend of their unpredictability. I think Seattle gives them all they want.

Cardinals 30, Seahawks 27

Philadelphia at San Diego: Clueless on this one. Going to stick with my general theory that Norv Turner teams will always find a way to undo any good they've done.

Eagles 27, Chargers 24

Dallas at Green Bay: This is a game where I normally side with the underdog. The Cowboys have been rolling and are coming off an emotional victory on the road in the division. With the Redskins and Raiders on tap following this game, the Cowboys can afford to lose and not be hurt too badly in the standings. Green Bay, on the other hand is playing for their season. Having said that, I'm just not sure the Packers can stop anyone right now.

Cowboys 31, Packers 27

New England at Indianapolis: A real beauty. Over the course of this decade, this has become a must-see rivalry, that usually produces highly entertaining football and has often produced the eventual AFC Champion. I think it provides both again this week.

Patriots 27, Colts 24

Baltimore at Cleveland: The Ravens are starting to look desperate. They should be thanking their lucky stars that they get the Browns this week.

Ravens 34, Browns 17

Lock of the Week

Patriots (+3) at Colts. Might look nuts to "lock" against an undefeated team, but I have a strong belief in this Patriots squad.

2. Falcons (-1.5) at Panthers. It should be close, but I like Atlanta to find a way, and I'm willing to risk the point here.

3. Saints (-14) at Rams. Even at half-speed, I see the Saints dropping 30.

4. Vikings/Lions OVER 47.5. Minnesota might get there by themselves.

Joe's College Football Plays
YTD Record 31-24
+7.60 UNITS

Last Week: 3-4

Week 11 Write-Ups:

165 Arizona
166 California -3
Total 55.5

We all saw it - the crazy hit that Jahvid Best took last week against Oregon State, it was scary. After that play (which was early in the game) Cal played deflated and was dismantled by the Beavers at home. Cal will be thinking of their recovering superstar (Best) and should come into this tilt a bit distracted and flat. Arizona comes in winners of 3 straight, averaging 493 yards a game the past 3 weeks, and feeling good after crushing Washington State last week in the desert. Arizona still has a shot at the Pac-10 title and a win against Cal will go a long way toward HC Stoops' team goals. Arizona's top 2 backs - Grigsby and Antolin rested last week against Washington State and should be ready to go against the Bears – add to that - emerging star QB Foles is improving each week, this truly looks to be the Wildcat's coming out party in the Pac-10. Also, keep in mind Cal's record over the last 5 games of the regular season since 2005 - 10-12 S/U and 5-17 ATS. The Bears are currently 1-1 S/U and 0-2 ATS in the first 2 of their final 5 games for 2009. Quite frankly the Bears wilt down the stretch, and this trend will not be bucked this week' in Bizerkley. 'Zona is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 against a team with a winning record, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 overall, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Pac-10 tilts, and 11-4 ATS in their last 15 as a dawg of 5 or less. Take the 'Cats and the better team to roll in this one, setting up the Pac-10 championship next week in Tucson.
TAKE 165
2 UNITS.

125 Michigan
126 Wisconsin -8.5
Total 56

The Badgers lead the Big 10 in rushing with 209 yards per game, and Michigan is giving up 440 yards per game, including 191 yards per game on the ground. This is going to be a ground and pound game with RB Big John Clay cleared to play this week after suffering a minor concussion last week against Indiana. Michigan comes in reeling after losing last week against Purdue in the Big House (to fall to 1-5 in Big-10 play), and have given up 190+ yards on the ground to Illinois and Michigan State (both on the road). Note that the once invincible QB Forcier has looked like a freshman since suffering a mild concussion a few weeks back - in the Wolverines' 3 game slide (which is really a 5 game slide since their only win in their last 6 games was against Division II Delaware State) he has 2 TD's, 1 pick and has been sacked 12 times. Also, keep tabs on star RB Brandon Minor as he is questionable with a shoulder injury. Plus, the Wolverines have hated Ohio State on deck, which may be the only game that can save Rich Rod's job in Ann Arbor. Another angle in this game is the revenge factor for the Badgers as they lost last year in disheartening fashion, blowing a 19 point lead and failing on a 2-point conversion in a 2 point loss. Michigan is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 highway tilts, have lost 3 in a row S/U & ATS, and have not won on the road this season. Look for the Badgers to get even for last year's loss and dismantle the "Team From Up North" in Madison.
TAKE 126
1 UNIT.

137 Kentucky -3
138 Vanderbilt
Total 44

Who has Kentucky played the last 4 weeks to deserve laying points against a good SEC defense on the road? The Wildcats have beat Division II Eastern Kentucky, lost to Miss State, beat Louisiana Monroe, and beat Auburn. Auburn is a quality win, but let’s face it the Wildcats have beaten some weaker foes of late and should have some trouble against a very underrated Commodore D that will be looking for one last home win for the seniors who will be playing their last game in front of the home crowd - before heading on the highway next week @ rival Tennessee. Vandy has lost 6 straight against 5 legit squads (Florida, Ga. Tech, South Carolina, Georgia, and Mississippi) - teams that are not in Kentucky’s class. This has been a close match-up of late @ Vandy, in which the last 3 have been decided by about 4 points on average. UK’s Star WR/Wildcat player Randall Cobb is banged up (but expected to play) and starting RB Derrick Locke is listed as questionable but most likely will play. Take the underrated home dawg as the Commodores and coach Bobby Johnson will show up and upset the soft-scheduling ‘Cats and send the seniors out winners in Nashville.
TAKE 138
1 UNIT.

167 Arizona State
168 Oregon -18
Total 50.5

This is a typical over-reaction in the line due to Oregon's beat down at Stanford. The Ducks were in a terrible situation after a huge win against USC and playing a Cardinal team off a bye "rested and waiting" at home. Oregon now returns home to the friendly confines of Autzen Stadium, and has RB LeGarrette Blount back (although he probably won't see the rock all that much). This should be a focused Duck bunch who were brought back to earth last week in Palo Alto, and with their Nation Championship hopes dashed, they can get back to business of focusing on the Rose Bowl. ASU on the other hand has lost 3 straight and 5 of 7 (with the only W's against Washington and Washington State). This will be an angry Duck squad and a step up in class ASU cannot handle - especially with a new starting QB for the Devils - True Freshman Brock Osweiler. If you remember the result the last true freshman had that started in Autzen - Matt Barkley - then you begin to understand what the Sun Devils are up against this week. Oregon is averaging 190+ more yards per game against league foes, and ASU has only been averaging 15 points per game in their 4 Pac-10 losses. Oregon is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 Pac-10 tilts, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 as chalk, ASU is 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games on turf, and Oregon has won the last 4 in this series by an average of 24 points per game. Take the focused Ducks to lay the wood in Eugene.
TAKE 168
1 UNIT.

179 UNLV
180 Air Force -17
Total 46.5

UNLV is shockingly playing for bowl eligibility and Mike Sanford’s job, after smashing Colorado State last week in Vegas. Air Force is off a huge emotional win against Army in which they were outgained in the first half and it took a lashing at halftime from HC Calhoun and starting LB Andre Morris (which was described as a brutal “R” Rated tongue lashing) before dominating the second half in a 35-7 win. This sets up as a nice flat spot for The Academy as they had to give a full effort in the 2nd half that included a miracle 73 yard touchdown pass – which is crazy for a triple option squad. Also, on deck for the Falcons is BYU which could be a game for bowl and MWC positioning. We played UNLV 2 weeks ago at TCU and should have had an easy cover, but TCU scored with 1:39 left on the clock to get the point spread victory. UNLV has played the Falcons well of late with the average margin of 7 points in the last 3 tilts, which includes one Rebel win. The only other team that UNLV has faced that runs a 3-4 was Wyoming (on the road) and they came within 3 points of a S/U W. Air Force’s highest 3 point totals of the 2009 season have been 35, 34, and 37 – against Navy, Colorado State, and New Mexico respectively. Other than against TCU and Utah (2 upper echelon MWC squads) UNLV has put up 21 or more points in every game, and that includes a heartbreaker against Oregon State. Please note that most of the trends point toward Air Force in this match-up, but UNLV should be able to buck those trends this week. Look for the athletic QB Omar Clayton and top WR Ryan Wolfe to put some points on the board and keep this game within margin, in what forecasts to be a cold and partially snowy game in The ‘Springs.
TAKE 179
1 UNIT.

Week Nine Picks, Pats, and Pardons

2009-11-05T06:28:00.004-06:00

Last Week: 7-6
Against the Spread: 2-2
Lock of the Week: 1-0

Season: 77-39
Redskins: 6-1
Against the Spread: 17-15
Lock of the Week: 4-4

Last Week's Pats: Short list-- I did hit my lock of the week with the Falcons covering the spread in New Orleans. Also correctly predicted a close game between the Niners and Colts.

Last Week's Pardons: Going to start with the Cowboys...again. Even though I picked them to win, I thought Seattle would keep it close. Dallas looks really solid right now. Also, a major apology to the Eagles, who absolutely destroyed the Giants on Sunday.

This Week's Picks:

Kansas City at Jacksonville: For the three of you out there that care...

Jaguars 27, Chiefs 21

Baltimore at Cincinnati: Huge game for both teams, but especially Baltimore considering the Bengals already have a win against the Ravens. I think the Ravens three game losing streak was a bit of an anomoly--this is a good team. Look for the Ravens to come away with a fairly easy victory.

Ravens 30, Bengals 17

Houston at Indianapolis: Still wary of the eggs that Houston typically lays from time to time, but the Texans are starting to look like a playoff team. I don't quite have the guts to pull the trigger on an upset here, but don't be shocked if it happens.

Colts 27, Texans 24

Washington at Atlanta: The Falcons are desperate for a win coming off two road losses to NFC contenders. The Redskins should be just what the doctor ordered.

Falcons 28, Redskins 13

Green Bay at Tampa Bay: Gotta wonder what those two emotional losses to the Vikings are going to do to the Pack longterm. I think this is a slightly dangerous spot for them, facing a winless team on the road coming off a bye. Josh Freeman also plays the role of wild card here. Tread lightly on the Packers this week.

Packers 20, Bucs 17

Arizona at Chicago: Toughest call of the week. The Cardinals may have finally figured out their east coast troubles, but they face a Bears team coming off a bye and a humiliating performance in their last outing. Total coin flip here, but expect lots of points.

***EDIT*** Wow, I'm slipping :) Bears played the Browns last week, my mistake. Prediction stays the same.

Cardinals 34, Bears 31

Miami at New England: It's sort of like the Patriots haven't played a real NFL game in a month. The embarrassed the Titans in the snow, blew away the Bucs in London, and then had a bye week. New England should be fresh, but could also be a tad rusty. Miami has to be feeling good following their odd win in New York last week. Look for the Dolphins to keep it close early before fading.

Patriots 33, Dolphins 20

Carolina at New Orleans: The Panthers may have had a "season saving" win in Arizona last week, but they just don't have the horses to keep up with Brees and company.

Saints 35, Panthers 21

Detroit at Seattle: Extremely disappointing effort from the Lions last week. A home loss to the Rams is not what you want to see from a team trying to change their culture. Seattle is no great shakes, but this is an easy pick.

Seahawks 29, Lions 13

Tennessee at San Francisco: If I'm Mike Singletary, I'm a bit concerned that Chris Johsnon and the Titans found their running game last week, but I'll take that solid 49ers defense against Vince Young right now anyday of the week.

49ers 19, Titans 16

San Diego at New York Giants: Terrible spot for the Chargers here, catching the Giants on a three game losing streak. This is close to a must-win for the Giants if they want to keep pace with Philly and Dallas. But I do think the Chargers will put some points on the board.

Giants 30, Chargers 26

Dallas at Philadelphia: The Eagles are gunning for a rare three game division sweep on Sunday Night. Gotta love what Philly did against the Giants, but also can't ignore the strong outings from Dallas in recent weeks. This is a very tough call, but I'll take the Cowboys as my upset pick of the week.

Cowboys 24, Eagles 22

Pittsburgh at Denver: How many times in history has a 6-1 team been a home underdog on Monday Night? This is usually where I would answer my own question, but I don't know-- so enlighten me if you do. My gut tells me to go with the Steelers, but my gut has been wrong on Denver all year.

Broncos 21, Steelers 20

Lock of the Week

Ravens (-3) at Bengals. Lock it up. Maybe my lock of the year.

2. Seahawks (-10) vs. Lions. Seahawks defense gets healthy this week.

3. Bucs (+10) vs. Packers. Look for Tampa to keep it tight.

4. OVER 44.5 Cardinals at Bears. Played the over in the Cardinals game last week to an easy win-- could be another shootout.

Joe's College Football Plays

YTD Record 28-20
+9.00 UNITS

Last Week: 2-3

Week 10 Write-Ups:

383 Houston
384 Tulsa -1.5
Total 67.5

This line has to be the craziest line of the season. I projected the spread on this game to be Houston laying 5/6 points in T-Town. I logged into my CPU on Sunday evening and saw Houston at -2.5. I was salivating and had this as my "2-Unit" play of the week. Then I wake up on Monday and the line is a pick-'em. Then all day Monday and Tuesday Tulsa is getting pounded. I played this at Houston +1.5, it is currently Houston +2.5. I have no idea what is going on out there??? I scoured all of my sites, the Houston papers, and can't find anything negative on the Cougs. No major injuries, no swine flu, everything appears to be good. Is the only reason for the line movement Houston's porous defense? Or is it the fact that Tulsa played UTEP close on the road and Houston laid an egg? Or is it the fact that the home team has won the last 3 S/U in this series, or that Tulsa has revenge on the mind after getting waxed last year 70-30 (after being ranked #25 in the nation), or the last meeting in Tulsa produced a 56-7 'Cane W? I have no clue - if you fear that the line movement is right, pound the 'Canes. I completely disagree and feel that Coach Sumlin will not allow his troops to lay down in the match-up that still has Conference USA West implications as a Tulsa win can create a log-jam in this Division. Remember this is not the 2008 or 2007 Tulsa squad - the D is a bit better, but the offense is not the same. The 'Canes have lost 3 straight, QB Kinne was benched last week against SMU after tossing 2 picks early - and reports from Tulsa have him recovering from a concussion suffered against SMU (Kinne is expected to start). Tulsa has beat 4 teams this season - Tulane, Sam Houston State, New Mexico, and Rice - pretty impressive right? Houston has gone on the road and defeated Oklahoma State and Mississippi State, and has scored 330+ points this season as the #3 scoring team in the nation. The 'Cougs are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 as a dawg, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 coming off a S/U win, and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 as a road puppy. I'm nervous, but then again I feel that the 'Cougs win by 20+ - take Keenum and Sumlin to lay the lumber in T-Town.
TAKE 383
1 UNIT.

361 TCU -24.5
362 San Diego State
Total 47.5

Back at it again. Last week we played against the Frogs and we were beat in the last 2 minutes of the game when UNLV surrendered a TD to the Frogs' 2nd team offense. UNLV could not manage one score to cash a ticket for us (the Rebels' first shut-out in 69 games) - that should change this week as SDSU comes in averaging 345 yards a game - and after their bye (4 weeks ago) the Aztecs, specifically QB Ryan Lindley who has been averaging 336 passing yards a game with a 12-1 TD/INT ratio, and averaging 31 ppg over that 4 game span. Yes, he will be facing his toughest defense of the year - but this is a different Aztec team under up and coming coach Brady Hoke (who built up the Ball State program the last few years), and a very familiar defensive coordinator in Rocky Long (former New Mexico head coach) who held TCU to it's lowest output last season of 291 yards, and who has lost 3 of the last 4 to TCU as the HC of New Mexico by less than 20 points. Also note the situational angle on this game - TCU has it's last "tough test" on deck as they go back home to face Utah next week. Keep in mind that TCU has won 12 straight home games - and next week they get to face a Utah team that will most likely come in 5-0 in MWC play (the same record TCU should have after this tilt). The last team to defeat the Frogs in Ft. Worth was Utah in 2007. This revenge story and monster game on deck is already being discussed in the Ft. Worth Star Telegram and will be a focus of the Frogs. The SDSU game is an afterthought in paradise for Patterson's troops. Don't underestimate Coach Hoke in this one as the last 2 tilts in this match-up in Diego have resulted in TCU wins of 12 and 3 points respectively (and those were worse SDSU squads with worse coaching that the current edition) - play the Aztecs.
TAKE 362
1 UNIT.

Other 1 Unit Plays:

USC -10 at Arizona St.
Illinoios +7.5 at Minnesota
Stanford +7 vs. Oregon
Arkansas/S. Carolina OVER 54.5
Fresno/Idaho OVER 67.5

Week Eight Picks, Pats, and Pardons

2009-10-29T05:55:00.003-05:00

Last Week: 8-5
Redskins: 1-0
Against the Spread: 2-2
Lock of the Week: 0-1

Season: 70-33
Redskins: 6-1
Against the Spread: 15-13
Lock of the Week: 3-4

Last Week's Pats: Came up short on my upset picks, so not much to brag about here. Even in the 8 games I won, I was somewhat off in what "type" of game it was going to be. Would have nailed the final score in the Eagles-Redskins game had it not been for a meaningless late touchdown.

Last Week's Pardons: Gotta start with the Bengals. I thought Chicago was going to come in and get the win, but Cincy laid the wood and bounced back nicely from their loss to Houston. The Bengals are looking like a legitimate playoff team. And although it pains me, I must apologize to the Cowboys, who looked extremely good beating the Falcons last week.

This Week's Picks:

St. Louis at Detroit: I kept telling people there was no way the Lions would go 0-16 last year. I'm not making the same mistake with the 2009 Rams.

Lions 24, Rams 20

Denver at Baltimore: The Broncos are 6-0. I am 0-6 picking Broncos game. For the sake of all Denver fans, I will keep at it.

Ravens 24, Broncos 14

Cleveland at Chicago: The Bears could really use a punching bag after the drubbing they took in Cincinnati last week. I'm sure the Browns will be happy to oblige.

Bears 33, Browns 17

Houston at Buffalo: On paper, this one looks really easy. However, the Texans have had a terrible habit in recent seasons of losing games they should win. Buffalo isn't exactly setting the world on fire, but they have won two in a row. Take the Texans, but be wary.

Texans 23, Bills 20

Minnesota at Green Bay: Must-see TV as Favre makes his return to Lambeau. Favre had one of the best games of his career earlier in the season against the Pack, and I wouldn't be surprised if he turns in another gem on Sunday. However, the emotion this week is on the side of the home team. This one will get very entertaining.

Packers 30, Vikings 27

San Francisco at Indianapolis: I have an odd feeling about this game, but I just can't pull the trigger. The Colts are rolling and I'm not sure the 49ers have the tools to stop that roll. But like I said, odd feeling.

Colts 26, 49ers 20

Miami at New York Jets: Bit of a quirk in the schedule-- the Dolphins face the Jets for the second time in three games (for Miami at least). New York got back on track in Oakland last week, while the Dolphins lost an emotional game against the Saints. The Jets get their revenge from three weeks ago.

Jets 21, Dolphins 16

Seattle at Dallas: The Cowboys recent history leads you to believe that this game could very well pose a problem. Dallas was very impressive in the way they dispatched Atlanta last week, and logic tells you they should handle the Seahawks fairly easy. But logic doesn't always apply in Big D. Taking the Cowboys, but mindful of an upset here.

Cowboys 28, Seahawks 21

Oakland at San Diego: Basically, once every three games or so, the Raiders will show up and keep it close. The rest of the time? Total garbage. San Diego in a laugher.

Chargers 34, Raiders 13

Jacksonville at Tennessee: Total snooze-fest. Going with the Titans to escape with win number one of 2009.

Titans 21, Jaguars 19

Carolina at Arizona: I didn't expect the Panthers to be a playoff team this year, but I am a tad surprised at how inept they've been at times-- the way they lost at home to Buffalo last week was utterly disgusting.

Cardinals 27, Panthers 17

New York Giants at Philadelphia: The Eagles were as unimpressive as a team can be in a blowout victory last week in Washington-- they basically just showed up and let the Redskins bumble and stumble all night long. Not overly impressed with what I've seen from Philly this year. The Giants haven't exactly been world-beaters the past two weeks either, but I believe in them more than I believe in the Eagles.

Giants 26, Eagles 23

Atlanta at New Orleans: No explanation necessary-- riding a gut feeling.

Falcons 34, Saints 30

Lock of the Week

Falcons (+10.5 at Saints). Huge number for a division rivalry--Atlanta is better than what they showed in Dallas last week.

2. Seahawks (+10) at Dallas. Riding the big number again here.

3. Ravens (-3.5) vs. Broncos. Will my total disrespect for the Broncos burn me again?

4. Giants (+1) at Eagles. New York is the better team.

Joe's College Football Plays

YTD Record 26-17
+9.30 UNITS

Last Week: 3-2

Week 9 Write-Ups:

119 Purdue
120 Wisconsin -7
Total 53

These 2 teams haven't met since 2006. The battle tested Badgers come in hungry, pissed, and motivated off a bye in a "key situation" that make them the play. The situational angle here is a home team off a bye, in conference play - most notably in week 8 or later of the season (a 63% ATS positive success rate). This game fits all three of those angles. The Badgers clearly outplayed Ohio State on the road when they outgained the Buckeyes by 200+ yards and still lost. There were 2 interception returns and a kickoff return that did in the Badgers in C-Bus. They also played Iowa very close 2 weeks ago as they went into the 4th quarter tied and ended up losing late to the "Cinderella" Hawkeyes. In Madison on Saturday the Badgers will not be going against the Buckeyes or Hawkeyes defense - they will be up against a stop unit that allows 155 rushing yards per game and is ranked 70th in the nation in total defense. Wisco has the running game and line advantages that the Boilermakers cannot handle and will not handle on Saturday. In the last 2 meetings between these two teams, Wisco has won by 21 and 11 points respectively. Also note that Purdue (other than their upset of the Buckeyes) has only beaten Illinois and Toledo on the year and lost to Northern Illinois (another team that likes to pound the rock and whom the Badgers beat by 7 earlier this season). Some trends to chew on while this line keeps increasing - Wisco is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 off a bye, 11-5 ATS v. a team with a losing record, and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games against a team with a losing record.
TAKE 120
2 UNITS.

141 SMU
142 Tulsa -16.5
Total 52.5

This line looks like a 2008 Tulsa line, not one that should be laid in 2009. Tulsa does not deserve to be laying this many points this year. These 2 squads are similar and SMU is up an coming squad under June Jones who has the 'Stangs 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road pup and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 v. a team with a winning record. Tulsa and Coach Graham have had to deal with and reflect some criticism from the local media the last two weeks after losing back to back games against Boise and a complete coaching melt-down against UTEP in which Coach Graham went conservative down the stretch to allow the Miners to come back and win outright. Bo Levi Mitchell was banged up last week, against Houston - but is back to full strength this week and should lead the Mustangs in a back and forth game against the Golden Hurricane in which these two evenly matched teams trade scores. Check out the scores the last 5 years in this C-USA match-up (and mind you, Tulsa was head and shoulders better than SMU the last couple of seasons). 2008 37-31 Tulsa, 2007 29-23 Tulsa, 2006 34-24 SMU, 2005 20-13 Tulsa, and 2004 41-35 SMU. This tells me that this game will be decided by less than 10 points and should be right around the lined total of 52.5 - Ride the ponies in this one.
TAKE 141
1 UNIT.

185 South Carolina
186 Tennessee -6
Total 41.5

This should be a hard-hitting/close game as two of the nation's top 10 passing defenses go head to head in Knoxville. The road team has the edge in this match-up going 9-2-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings. We'll side with the road pup in this game as Spurrier's bunch is off to their best start in years @ 6-2. Tennessee could be in let-down mode after the heart-breaking loss against Alabama last week that they had won, but had a game winning field goal blocked in the closing seconds. Coach Kiffin had his crew maxed out in that game and they came up just short - what kind of effort will they have this week against a Gamecock club that has played well on the highway in 2009 at Georgia and at Alabama? Another factor that you know Spurrier will play up - Kiffin hired his brother in law David Reaves away from South Carolina to be the Vols' QB coach. Pretty normal hire, except that Reaves set off an ugly recruiting war in which Reaves contacted Gamecock recruits and told them that Spurrier was going to retire after the season. The old ball coach may like to hit the links and the 19th hole, but he will not take this lightly and you know this is being played up all week in the locker room. Can Kiffin have his troops ready after giving their full effort in a heart-breaking loss, against a motivated Spurrier? Take the Ball Coach and his squad on the highway as they are 4-1 ATS in their last 4 games as a dawg and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 as a road pup catching less than 10.
TAKE 185
1 UNIT.

167 UNLV
168 TCU -35
Total 57.5

Can you say let down? The Frogs won their biggest game of the year last week in dominant fashion over their conference rival BYU (38-7). They now come home for a homecoming game against a Rebel squad that they are 6-1 against S/U all time. However, TCU is not the type of squad that lends itself to laying a number like this, especially against QB Omar Clayton and the road weary Rebels (who got their first road win last week against a horrible New Mexico squad). UNLV has put up 34 @ NM, 28 @ Nevada, and 27 @ Wyoming - and for good measure put up 21 at home against BYU and 21 at home against Oregon State (a game that they led with 4 minutes left in the 4th quarter). Yes Coach Peterson's squad is better and in a different class than the Rebels - but can they beat or do they care to beat the Rebels by 35 on Saturday in the Fort? The answer is no - the last 3 match-ups (all Frog wins) have been by 30, 24, and 15 respectively. Expect this game to be within margin as the disinterested Frogs will have to score 50+ to cover this spread - a feat that they have not accomplished against 1A competition in 2009.
TAKE 167
1 UNIT.

133 Mississippi -3.5
134 Auburn
Total 49

It may be time for Rebel fans to let out a collective "FINALLY". It looks Jevan Snead may have found his way - averaging 286 yards the last two games and a 5-2 TD-INT ratio. The Rebels come into this game with a very stout defense (#13 in the country) and have only given up 20 points once this year - and that was to Alabama. This looks like a team on rise and on that is playing up to its potential (not #4 in the country potential, but top 15 potential). On the other side we have a Tiger squad that was surprising foes at the start of the season with their 5-0 start. But now, things are starting to go South for this Auburn squad with 3 straight losses to Arkansas by 21, Kentucky by 7, and LSU by 21. Rumors and reports from the SEC claim that the SEC has now caught up and figured out Gus Malzahn's spread attack and his tendencies in play calling. QB Chris Todd has also come back to reality now that he is facing SEC defenses instead of La Tech and Ball State - he will not fare any better this week against a very stout Rebel D. The Rebels are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 highway tilts, 20-7 ATS in their last 27, and the road team is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings in this match-up. Auburn has not scored more than 14 the last 2 weeks - they should not score more than 10 in this game - look for the Rebels to roll in Tigerland where showers are expected, which will only help the defense of the Rebels.
TAKE 133
1 UNIT.

Week Seven Picks, Pats, and Pardons

2009-10-22T06:09:00.004-05:00

Last Week: 9-5
Redskins: 1-0
Against the Spread: 2-2
Lock of the Week: 0-1

Season: 62-28
Redskins: 5-1
Against the Spread: 13-11
Lock of the Week: 3-3

Last Week's Pats: Decent week; correctly picked the Texans to upset the Bengals, the Chiefs over the Redskins the Saints over the Giants. Narrowly missed on my Ravens over Vikings pick, but it did cover the spread.

Last Week's Pardons: I am now 0-6 picking Broncos games-- they are making me look moronic week in and week out.

This Week's Picks:

San Diego at Kansas City: The Chargers are a mess-- they are looking like a classic Norv Turner-coached team, always finding ways to avoid prosperity. The Chiefs got their first win last week, but they are still far from impressive. This is an ugly game that could swing either way-- I'll stick with the Chargers.

Chargers 24, Chiefs 17

Indianapolis at St. Louis: Kind of unfair that the Colts get two bye weeks, don't you think?

Colts 35, Rams 16

Chicago at Cincinnati: This game is a Pick Em for a reason--really tough call. I figured the Bengals were due to come down to earth a bit last week, but I also think they are a solid team and legit playoff contender. But I feel the same way about the Bears--both teams coming off losses, needing wins. I'll play a hunch here.

Bears 27, Bengals 24

Green Bay at Cleveland: The Browns have been fighting hard the past few weeks, but they have talent-gaps almost everywhere. Looking for the Packers to get on a roll.

Packers 31, Browns 17

Minnesota at Pittsburgh: Another game where I'm pretty torn-- I think the Vikings are the better team overall, but they are bound to lose sometime and the Steelers D may be getting it's mojo back now that Troy Polomalu has returned. I'm going to roll with the home team, but if you forced me to play the line, I think I'd take Minnesota.

Steelers 23, Vikings 20

New England at Tampa Bay: This is the third time the NFL has visited London. Two years ago, they gave them the eventual 1-15 Dolphins. This year, they trot out the 0-6 Bucs. Not exactly putting your best foot forward. The Patriots will roll.

Patriots 38, Bucs 14

San Francisco at Houston: An under-the-radar game that might be one of the best match-ups of the week. Houston is almost impossible to read; I've been riding them for three years with varying levels of success and failure. No patterns seem to apply to the Texans and they seem to play no better or worse at home as opposed to on the road. I suspect the 49ers will be ready to go after a bye week, but I'll stick to my guns with the Texans.

Texans 26, 49ers 21

New York Jets at Oakland: This looked like an easy pick three weeks ago, but the Jets looked downright miserable last week against Buffalo while the Raiders showed they still had a pulse in beating the Eagles. I still don't think Jamarcus Russell can consistently win games though.

Jets 17, Raiders 15

Buffalo at Carolina: Nice win for the Bills last week, but much like Oakland, I seriously doubt whether or not they will be able to duplicate their performance. The Panthers will have quietly re-entered the equation with a victory.

Panthers 28, Bills 21

New Orleans at Miami: This is the only spot this week where I could see a big upset. Miami has to be feeling good about themselves following back to back wins and a week off. The Saints have to be feeling good about themselves because they might be the best team in the NFL. I usually get burned when I do this, but I am purposely picking against the better team here, envisioning an unlikely outcome.

Dolphins 29, Saints 27

Atlanta at Dallas: I love the balance the Falcons possess. They can run, pass, and defend-- that's a pretty nice trio. Dallas is still dangerous, but until Tony Romo leads them to a win against a quality opponent, I'll feel pretty comfortable picking against them.

Falcons 27, Cowboys 23

Arizona at New York Giants: Not a good spot for the Cardinals here-- they get the Giants, on the road, in primetime, coming off a humiliating defeat. Look for the Giants to control this game.

Giants 31, Cardinals 21

Philadelphia at Washington: As a Redskins fan, I think I'm qualified to state this: If the Eagles fail to win on Monday Night, they should fire Andy Reid on the spot and remove Donovan McNabb from the starter's role for good. They should clean house. I'm not sure a team has ever been more set up for a loss than the Redskins are this week. First of all, even if things were rosey at Redskins park, they simply aren't a very talented football team. But add a extreme dose of turmoil and chaos to the mix and you have a sitting duck. The pressure is on Philly this week because the Redskins are more or less waving a white flag-- if the Eagles can't capture it-- heaven help them.

Eagles 27, Redskins 10

Lock of the Week

Dolphins (+6.5) vs. Saints. Even if they don't win, I like the Dolphins to cover.

2. Falcons (+3.5) at Cowboys. I love the half-point in this one.

3. Colts (-13) vs. Rams. Big spreads always make me nervous because of the "meaningless late score" factor, but the Colts really should cruise.

4. Eagles (-7) at Redskins. Could get real ugly on the field-- and in the stands.

Joe's College Football Plays

YTD Record 23-15
+9.60 UNITS

Week 8 Write-Ups:

315 Clemson
316 Miami -4.5
Total 44

Earlier in the year we cashed a 2 Unit play on Clemson as they dominated Boston College at home while dealing with 2 rain/weather delays, and this week we look to play against these same inconsistent Tigers. This season, Clemson has defeated Middle Tennessee State, Boston College, and Wake Forest (all at home) while losing to TCU (at home), Maryland and Georgia Tech on the highway. Simply put, this squad does not like to play outside of "death valley." CJ Spiller became the Tigers' all time leading rusher last week as Clemson dominated a weak Wake Forest squad. This will be a slight step-up in class for the Tigers and Spiller as they will face a Miami team on the rise that should be able to focus on stopping Spiller and the one dimensional Clemson attack - Which should provide Randy Shannon's crew amply opportunity to get to and frustrate sophomore QB Kyle Parker. Offensive coordinator Mark Whiple and QB Jacory Harris (the 8th ranked QB in the country with over 1,500 yards, 11 td's, and a 64% completion percentage) have looked stellar this season. Miami is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games in October, 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games, and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games at Land Shark Stadium. Expect the up and down Clemson squad to be down this week and the Canes will be ready to lay the lumber.
TAKE 316
2 UNITS.

367 UCLA
368 Arizona -7.5
Total 51.5

Arizona looked real good last week running the no-huddle against Stanford with new QB Nick Foles who went 40 of 51 with 450+ yards and 3 touchies last week. This is a classic battle of 2 teams headed in different directions as UCLA has lost 3 straight both S/U and ATS and got crushed last week against Cal - While Arizona has found a QB and has won 2 of 3, with the lone loss on the road at UW when a ball bounced off a receivers foot into a UW players hands for a last second interception return. UCLA's defense had a player’s only, closed door meeting on Sunday to "figure out" what was wrong with their defense as they have given up 684 yards on the ground to Cal, Oregon, and Stanford - and 45, 24, and 24 points respectively. This meeting will not change the fact that UCLA can't stop anyone. Look for talented RB's Grigsby and Antolin and new stud QB Folk to get loose on Sunday and put the Bruins away comfortably in the desert. It is worth noting that the favorite is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings between these schools, with 'Zona 11-5 ATS in their last 16 Pac-10 tilts, and 9-3 ATS in their last 12 home games.
TAKE 368
1 UNIT.

321 Indiana
322 Northwestern -5
Total 53.5

Last year in this match-up, Indiana won in come from behind fashion snapping a 5 game losing streak to Northwestern. The Wildcats have been horrible this season against the pass and are slipping below expectations losing 3 of their last 5 contests. Northwestern demonstrated that they cannot stop the pass last week as the allowed 280 yards to Michigan State. In comes a hungry and improving Hoosiers team led by QB Ben Chappel, RB Darius Willis, and WR Tandon Doss - that went for 300+ yards and 27 points against Illinois and 270+ yards and 33 points on the road in the Big House. Also note that Northwestern has 10+ players in their 2-deep hurt, including 5 starters on D which includes starting Safety Brendan Smith who hurt his hand last week against Michigan State. Indiana remains in the hunt for a bowl and will come in hungry and confident after its win against the Wildcats last season. The dawg is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 in this series, in which the S/U winner is 22-1 ATS in the last 23 games in this series. Look for the better team to cover and win outright, ride the folks from Bloomington.
TAKE 321
1 UNIT.

337 Oklahoma State -9.5
338 Baylor
Total 53

Was highly anticipating this game at the start of the season with the high hopes of the ‘Pokes and the up and coming Bears with Coach Art Briles and emerging superstar QB Robert Griffin. This one looked to be a great spot to grab Baylor and fire on an over. However, the reality is that Briles’ spread is without its engine with Griffin out. Back-up and former starting QB Szymensky cannot make this offense function as it is supposed to with his skill set – sort of like a round peg in a square hole – it just doesn’t work. Case in point last week the Bears lost @ Iowa State 24-10. Since Griffin’s departure the Bears are 1-2 ATS with the lone cover against Oklahoma by 1 point – a game in which the Bears were catching 27. They have put up 7 points and 10 points in their first 2 Big 12 tilts and I don’t expect them to put up much more than that this week. On the flip side Ok. State has righted the ship, even without WR Dez Bryant and this whole Deon Sanders debacle the ‘Pokes have been putting up points. They have scored 33+ in every game but the opener against Georgia, a game that they won and covered (they scored 24 points). In Ok. State’s first 2 Big 12 games they have scored 36 and 33 respectively – expect that total to be higher this week as the Cowboys roll in Waco.
TAKE 337
1 UNIT.

383 Iowa
384 Michigan State -1.5
Total 42

Should be a solid game in East Lansing and ABC night game, with conditions calling for rainy weather – which will trend this game to an Under play. The stadium should be rocking as the prime time and night atmosphere will have this place loud. The Under is 8-2 in State’s last 10 home games and is 21-5-1 in Iowa’s last 27 games on the highway. I am playing the first half of this game which is lined at Michigan State -.5 (half-point). With the raucous crowd and the fact that Michigan State will be juiced and the fact that Iowa has had 2 Big 10 road games @ Wisconsin and @ Penn State. The halftime score of each of those tilts – Wisconsin 10 – Iowa 3 and Penn State 10 – Iowa 5. I expect the same effort here as Sparty will get off to a quick start and Iowa will wear them down in the 2nd half in what should be a “grind ‘em out” game in East Lansing.
TAKE 384 FIRST HALF – 1 UNIT.

Redskins Musings: Rock Bottom? Maybe Not.

2009-10-20T12:30:00.003-05:00

Over the past 17 years or so, I’ve thought that the Washington Redskins had hit rock bottom several times. I thought the 4-12 season under Richie Petitbone in 1993 was rock bottom—now, Petitbone looks like Vince Lombardi to me. I thought we’d officially hit rock bottom during the Norv Turner nightmare, but then Steve Spurrier came along with a giant chisel and dug a little deeper. Apparently, that wasn’t deep enough. The best player to don a Redskins uniform in 15 years was murdered in 2007, followed by the resignation of all Redskins fans’ hero, Joe Gibbs. Deep enough?

I’d like to think that what happened this week would eliminate us from plunging to further depths, but I should probably keep an eye out anyway.

This week, the Redskins brain trust of Danny Snyder and Vinny Cerrato not only undermined the head coach of the team; they humiliated him and hung him out to dry in front of the media.

Three weeks ago, former NFL assistant Sherm Lewis was calling Bingo games at a retirement home and delivering meals on wheels. This week, he will be calling plays for the Redskins. For real. Brought in as “an extra set of eyes” (Vinny’s words) two weeks ago, Cerrato has now stripped Zorn of his playcalling duties and handed them over to a retired Bingo caller. For real.

What’s even worse is that Snyderatto refused to face the media to discuss the change. Instead, Zorn was left twisting in the wind at the podium. On one hand, I wish Zorn would have told them to shove it and refused the switch. On the other hand, I admire Zorn for saying that he really wants things to work here and that he is willing to give this a shot. Unlike his bosses, Zorn stood up, took some accountability and faced his critics.

I’ll be interested to see what Lewis has in store this week. I did some investigating and uncovered a page from his playbook. From the looks of it, he’s having a hard time making the transition from Bingo to football. Here are some samples:

“B 24”: On this play, left tackle Stephon Heyer gets bull-rushed by a 5th round pick from Morgan State. But before his man can sack Jason Campbell, the defensive end from the other side has already made the sack.

“I 19”: This is where our three second round picks from 2008 all run “go” routes—Campbell decides not to wait the necessary 46 seconds for any of them to get open and instead decides to dump the ball off to Chris Cooley. The tight end is open 4 yards from the line of scrimmage, but Campbell overthrows him.

“N 40”: A running play. Mike Sellers leads the way for the Clinton Portis. Three defenders break through the line and close in on Portis. Not sure which one to block, Sellers chooses to just keep on running.

“G 4”: This one is designed to be a game breaker. Campbell hits Santana Moss deep down the left sideline. Malcolm Kelly nullifies the gain by lining up 8 yards in the backfield causing an illegal formation.

“G5”: Seeing it worked aside from the penalty, they give it another shot. Everything goes perfectly this time…Moss is even more open and the line finally holds. But Campbell throws the ball 16 yards out of bounds.

“N 7”: Play designed strictly for 3rd and long. No receiver runs a route more than 3 yards downfield…Campbell dumps the ball of to Ladell Betts- he drops it.

I really think Danny should just grab a booster seat, hop in the coach’s box and call the plays himself—at least then we can eliminate the pretense.

As a fan, I’m not even really sure what I want right now. In many ways, I’d like to see Danny and his racquetball buddy continue to flounder and fall flat on their faces. But that will only come at the further expense of Zorn and the fans. Yet, if somehow things get turned out even a little bit, the two stooges might think they are on the right track. Not really knowing how to handle this, I’ll just do what I do—root for the team, enjoy the games as much as possible, and laugh at those jokers as much as possible.

My advice for Vinny: All Redskins fans have know for a decade that you are a moron. Your skills as an actor actually outweigh your skills as an NFL GM. Here is a clip from his big screen debut, so you can judge for yourself: http://voices.washingtonpost.com/dcsportsbog/2009/02/vinny_cerratos_first_ninja_sce.html

For real

This week, not only did you further entrench yourself in Redskins lore as an incompetent jackass, you actually proved to be spineless as well. The way you handled “your guy” Zorn is shameful. One of these days Danny will wise up and throw you to the wolves. I’m betting they won’t like the taste.

My advice for Danny: I’d tell you to blow it up and start from scratch, but I’m afraid you might push the wrong button and take out the Pentagon or something. You are truly the only common thread in all of this misery—everyone else has come and gone. You remain. Your stamp is all over the franchise. We’ve all heard the horror stories about how you treat your employees and maybe this is just karma catching up to you? If so, it’s a travesty that you’ve taken so many of us down with you. If you have a one brain cell left in your head or one drop of blood left in your heart, you will totally remove yourself from the situation and turn the Redskins over to someone who knows what they are doing.

Am I saying that Danny is the root of all our problems?

BINGO!

Week Six Picks, Pats, and Pardons

2009-10-15T07:51:00.002-05:00

Last Week: 10-4
Redskins: 1-0
Against the Spread: 2-2
Lock of the Week: 1-0

Season: 53-23
Redskins: 4-1
Against the Spread: 11-9
Lock of the Week: 3-2

Last Week's Pats: Another solid, yet unspectacular week. Got back on track with my lock of the week, with the Chiefs covering against Dallas-- and came close to getting my pick of the Chiefs to win outright. Correctly picked the Browns to upset the Bills and the Dolphins to upset the Jets.

Last Week's Pardons: Big apology to the Colts-- I thought the Titans were due. Missed that game as badly as you can miss. And another week and another apology to Denver-- I guess I'll never learn.

This Week's Picks:

Kansas City at Washington: Horrible game between two of the league's bottom-feeders. Dating back to last year, the Redskins have topped 20 points in game just three times in their last 16 contests--and they haven't hit 30 since 2007. Look for the Chiefs to join the Lions and Panthers as teams that breakthrough for win #1 against the Redskins.

Chiefs 19, Redskins 17

Houston at Cincinnati: I've been making an arse of myself either picking the Texans to win or cover week after week for three years now. I think the Bengals are legit, but my stubborness and desire to pick upsets gets the best of me yet again.

Texans 24, Bengals 21

Cleveland at Pittsburgh: The Browns are riding a tidal wave of momentum following their thrilling 6-3 win in Buffalo last week....

Steelers 30, Browns 13

Baltimore at Minnesota: I don't consider this a reach or a cute pick--I'm a believer in the Ravens despite their two game losing streak. Calling for the upset here.

Ravens 27, Vikings 20

St. Louis at Jacksonville: The only game of the week that might make you change the channel to Chiefs-Redskins.

Jaguars 28, Rams 17

New York Giants at New Orleans: Great match-up and a definitley a possible preview of the NFC Championship Game. I think the Giants are the better team, but the intangibles this week seem to favor the Saints-- coming off a bye, playing at home, etc. I really don't like the idea of betting against a Giants team that has proven to be rock solid, but I think Brees gets the best of them this week.

Saints 30, Giants 23

Carolina at Tampa Bay: The Bucs won't go 0-16, right? I kept saying that about the Lions last year too... and if the Bucs are going to win, at home versus the Panthers seems like a logical spot for them to do it. But I just can't pick it.

Panthers 21, Bucs 17

Detroit at Green Bay: The Lions are a much more competitive team this year, but they still can't stop anyone.

Packers 34, Lions 20

Philadelphia at Oakland: As a Redskins fan, I am grateful to the Raiders for absorbing so many punch lines. For some stupid reason, I see them being somewhat competitive this week---and the Eagles are usually good for a stinker or two along the way.

Eagles 23, Raiders 13

Arizona at Seattle: The difference between the Seahawks with Matt Hasselbeck versus without him is astonishing---he is truly one of the league's MVP's and a horribly underrated player.

Seahawks 26, Cardinals 20

Buffalo at New York Jets: The Bills offense is a perfect remedy for a defense looking to take out some frustration.

Jets 27, Bills 9

Tennessee at New England: I tried to give the Titans the benefit of the doubt, but I've given up---kind of looks like they've done the same.

Patriots 31, Titans 14

Chicago at Atlanta: Intruiging game that features all kinds of offensive weaponry. The Falcons unleashed those weapons on the 49ers last week--gotta side with the home team here.

Falcons 29, Bears 24

Denver at San Diego: Looking to improve on my 0-5 record picking Denver to lose so far this year...

Chargers 20, Broncos 16

Lock of the Week:

Jets (-9.5) vs. Bills: Buffalo is circling the drain

2. Ravens (+2.5) at Vikings. Going with a road win for the Ravens

3. Seahawks (-3) vs. Cardinals: Not really liking what I see from Arizona right now.

4. Chiefs (+6.5) at Redskins: Redskins D may need to force a shutout in order for the Skins to cover.

Week Five Picks, Pats, and Pardons

2009-10-07T12:24:00.003-05:00

Last Week: 10-4
Redskins: 1-0
Against the Spread: 2-2
Lock of the Week: 0-1

Season: 43-19
Redskins: 3-1
Against the Spread: 9-7
Lock of the Week: 2-2

Last Week's Pats: A perfect score prediction always deserves a pat on the back-- I hit the nail on the head in the Redskins-Bucs game and got the score correct in the Browns-Bengals as well (although I had the wrong team winning, but what does that matter?). Overall, a solid 10-4 narrowly missing my upset of the week with the aforementioned Browns game.

Last Week's Pardons: I've been critical of Brett Favre over the years and I'll go to my grave claiming him to be overrated on the historic scale of all-time QB's, but he was simply brilliant on Monday Night, adding one more amazing chapter to his already impressive novel. I thougt Aaron Rodgers might outduel his old teammate, but Favre was clearly not going to be out-gunned in that situation.

This Week's Picks:

Minnesota at St. Louis: I can definitely see the Vikings having a bit of an emotional letdown after last week, but the Rams aren't close to being good enough to take advantage.

Vikings 27, Rams 14

Dallas at Kansas City: I thought the Chiefs would give the Giants a game last week, and therefore, I pegged them to cover the 8.5 points they were getting as my lock of the week. I missed badly as New York cruised to victory over what looks to be a lost Chiefs squad. Speaking of lost squads, the pressure is mounting in Dallas-- I am going way out on a limb and predicting it to get much worse before it gets better. Chiefs win outright.

Chiefs 24, Cowboys 22

Washington at Carolina: The Panthers are not a playoff team this year-- they will not rebound from their poor start and make a significant move in the standings. Having said that, they are better than their 0-3 record indicates, they have a solid coaching staff, and they are coming off a bye. This spells bad news for a Redskins team that is still grasping at straws offensively. Carolina controls this one from beginning to end.

Panthers 24, Redskins 13

Tampa Bay at Philadelphia: Kansas City, BYE, Tampa, at Oakland. The four easiest weeks in NFL history? The Eagles will roll the hapless Bucs this Sunday.

Eagles 34, Bucs 10

Oakland at New York Giants: The Giants are rock solid. Even though they've played a softball schedule thus far, they've still been quite impressive in the way they've gone about dispatching their opponents-- including the last three straight on the road. This week New York gets the first of their two BYE weeks.

Giants 27, Raiders 10

Cleveland at Buffalo: Bad news for folks in Cleveland and Buffalo-- your teams stink. More bad news-- winter is fast approaching.

Browns 17, Bills 16

Cincinnati at Baltimore: I was actually quite impressed that the Bengals held on to win in Cleveland last week-- that had "Bengals" written all over it from the start and they did a great job of hanging tough and winning their third straight. Handling prosperity is not always the easiest thing for a team that hasn't seen much success. At 3-1, they can relax a bit entering this match-up-- which is good because the Ravens aren't dropping two in a row.

Ravens 30, Bengals 14

Pittsburgh at Detroit: Detroit is in the midst of a pretty brutal stretch of games-- they are playing much harder and much better so far this year, but the final scores may not be indicitive of their improvement.

Steelers 35, Lions 17

Atlanta at San Francisco: I fell in love with this game from the minute I saw it as my upset special-- which probably spells bad news for the Falcons. I love what the 49ers are doing on defense, but I'm still skeptical of Shaun Hill and their overall offensive attack-especially without Frank Gore. Falcons have had two weeks to rebound from their poor outing in New England.

Falcons 23, 49ers 20

New England at Denver: I have picked Denver to lose each of their games so far. I am 0-4 picking Denver games. Good news if you are a Broncos fan.......

Patriots 26, Broncos 17

Houston at Arizona: The Texans remain a mystery to me--- another game where my gut tells me to go upset, but my history with picking Houston to pull off upsets tells me otherwise. Very skeptical of the Cardinals this year, but I think they'll sneak out this week.

Cardinals 27, Texans 24

Jacksonville at Seattle: Gotta give it up to Jack Del Rio and the Jags-- I had them pegged for dead in the pre-season and thought my call was looking pretty good when they got off to an 0-2 start. But back to back wins in the AFC South have me rethinking my position. I'm going with the Seahawks because they are generally tough at home, but a Jax win would not surprise in the least.

Seahawks 20, Jaguars 17

Indianapolis at Tennessee: 0-4 vs. 4-0 seems like a great time to pull a rabbit out of my hat.

Titans 27, Colts 23

New York Jets at Miami: I've really waffled on this one. The Jets defense is 100% legit, but Mark Sanchez and the offense got a major reality check in New Orleans last week. Miami got in the win column and may very well be a better team with Chad Henne at the helm. Flipping a coin and going with the home team.

Dolphins 22, Jets 19

Lock of the Week:

Chiefs (+8.5) vs. Cowboys: Potentially making myself like a total fool if the Chiefs drop my LOW for the second time in a row.

2. Falcons (+2.5) at 49ers: Looking for an outright win from the Falcons.

3. Texans (+5.5) at Cardinals: Texans keep it close, and maybe win outright.

4. Titans (+4) vs. Colts. From 13-3 to home underdogs-- can it really happen that fast?

Joe's College Football Plays

YTD Record 14-14
+2.80 UNITS

Week 6 Write-Ups:

319 Indiana
320 Virginia - 7
Total 46.5

First ever meeting between these 2 teams. Virginia is starting to pick things up as Al Groh remains firmly on the hot seat. We have seen Virginia begin to put some offense together as they put up 34 points against a decent Southern Mississippi team 2 weeks ago (who is similar in class to this Indiana squad). Jameel Sewell is beginning to figure things out as a "dual threat" QB who can produce against Indiana's defense. There is some rain in the forecast for Saturday but it should not be a factor as Indiana's looks to bounce back after getting shut down against Ohio State last week. Indiana is averaging 27ppg and should have no trouble moving the ball against Virginia with Ben Chappell who already has 1,000 yards through the air and has put up 33 and 38 points against Michigan and Akron respectively. Expect a back and forth game in Charlottesville as the OVER is 4-1 in the Hoosier's last 5 as a road pup, 4-1 in their last 5 road games overall, 6-0 in the Cavs' last 6 non-conference games and 11-5 in the Cavs' last 16 homes games as home chalk > 4 points.

TAKE 319 OVER
1 UNIT.

337 Houston
338 Mississippi State -2.5
Total 67

This game has had probably the largest line movement of the year. It opened as Houston laying 2.5 on the highway at Starkville, and has moved to the Cougars now catching 2.5 on the road. Looks like the betting marketplace feels that the BCS buster "flavor of the month" Cougs are toast after losing to UTEP last week. I completely disagree with the sharps on this one. Houston can flat out score and Miss State's defense is a sieve. Mississippi State gave up 246 yards passing against a horrible passing team in Ga. Tech and gave up 42 points to the Jackets and is giving up 40ppg on the season. Keep in mind Houston is averaging 446 passing yard per game - they will not be stopped on Saturday. Their last meeting was in 2005 in Starkville and had the Cougs catching 1.5, and they came out as 28-16 S/U and ATS winners. I expect there to be no difference here as the Cougs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a pup, and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 against the SEC. Coach Kevin Sumlin is a great coach and a fiery motivator, he will not allow his Houston squad to come in unfocused and feeling sorry for themselves. Take the points and the Cougs in this contest.

TAKE 337
1 UNIT.

343 Stanford
344 Oregon State -1
Total 50.5

Yes Oregon State has a great home field advantage in Corvallis over the last few years (9-3 ATS in the last 12 home games and 44-12 S/U at home since 2000). BUT, this is not the same Beaver team of the last few years. Oregon State had a great win last week @ ASU, but the game was a bit misleading. ASU had a 26-14 first down edge and out gained the Beavers by 100+ yards. In that game Oregon State benefited from an ASU fumbled snap at the 15 in which the Beavers easily punched one in - As well as an ASU interception at the Beaver 33, a fumble at the Beaver 22, and they stopped the Sun Devils on downs at the Beaver 29. The Beavers also returned a punt 35 yards inside the ASU 20 for another easy score. Captain Comeback and the Cardinal are not this sloppy folks. The Beavers will not benefit from the sloppy play on offense and special teams of a Dennis Erickson led squad. Stanford is disciplined, balanced, and pounds the rock with Toby Gerhart. While Oregon State is stout against the run that stat could be a bit misleading as UNLV, Arizona State, and Cincinnati are not rush heavy teams. Stanford has been effective on defense shutting down both the run and the pass and should have no problem stopping an average Sean Canfield and keying on Jaquizz Rodgers all day. Oregon State has been terrible against the pass, so expect Ryan Whalen and Chris Owusu to be stretching the field all day with Andrew Luck. This will weaken that overrated Beaver run defense and allow the 240 pound beats in Gerhart to wear down the Beavers late in the game for a S/U Cardinal win and cover. Stanford is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 Pac-10 games, 5-1 ATS against teams with a winning record, and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.

TAKE 343
2 UNITS.

385 Michigan
386 Iowa -8
Total 47

Great match-up on ABC Saturday night. Seems a bit too many points for Michigan who comes in after a huge loss last weekend against Michigan State. Iowa comes in prepared after a lackluster win last week against Arkansas State. Iowa is getting healthy with 2 lineman almost back to full strength. It appears that Iowa is a team that is going to play to the level of it's competition this year after barely beating Northern Iowa and Arkansas State, yet handling Arizona, Iowa State and Penn State. Iowa is averaging 27ppg against D1 competition and they are going to have to score to defeat the Michigan spread under Rich Rod to cover this number. This is the weakest defense that Iowa has faced all year or at least comparable to Iowa State, when the Hawkeyes put 35 on the board. Michigan meanwhile will be going to the air all day, since their weakness is the run and Iowa is stout against the run. Michigan is averaging 34ppg and should be able to put 25+ on the board in Iowa City. Also note that the OVER is 8-2 in Michigan's last 10 v. a team with a winning record and the OVER is 7-1 in Iowa's last 8 as home chalk > 4 points. Look for a shootout and a game that is closer than expected. Take the OVER and the resurgent Wolverines.

TAKE 385 OVER 1 UNIT.
TAKE 385 1 UNIT.

Week Four Picks, Pats, and Pardons

2009-10-01T05:27:00.003-05:00

Last Week: 11-5
Redskins: 0-1
Against the Spread: 2-2
Lock of the Week: 1-0

Season: 33-15
Redskins: 2-1
Against the Spread: 7-5
Lock of the Week: 2-1

Last Week's Pats: I was SO close to picking the Bengals, and even though I picked the Steelers to win by two, I'm still going to pat myself on the back for seeing that game coming. Also correctly predicted the Bears to upset the Seahawks and for the Colts to upset the Cardinals (although I'd hardly call either a shocker). Nailed my lock of the week for the second week in a row as Green Bay easily covered against the Rams.

Last Week's Apologies: I apologize for picking the Bucs to score 13 points...what was I thinking? Apologies also go out to the Broncos, who look like they are going to be that team that burns me all season. And finally, I apologize to myself for picking the Redskins to win outright and cover-- serves me right.

This Week's Picks:

Oakland at Houston: Jamarcus Russell is shockingly bad. He's Heath Shuler-esque. He is quickly headed down the path of the all-time draft busts. The Texans are schizo-- who knows with them?

Texans 26, Raiders 14

Tennessee at Jacksonville: Very nice win for the Jags last week--- I pretty much buried them before the season started, but they bounced back nicely from their 0-2 start and got a road win in the division at Houston. Having said that, the Titans are bound to win eventually.

Titans 23, Jaguars 17

Baltimore at New England: This was my AFC Championship game in my pre-season picks, and I see no reason to back away from that prediction at this point. The Patriots have looked far from dominant thus far, but they did manhandle a good Falcons team on Sunday. The Ravens are the total package-- my Super Bowl favorites right now. But for some reason, I see the Pats sneaking one out.

Patriots 27, Ravens 24

Cincinnati at Cleveland: Throughout the year I like to make a few "that's the NFL" picks. I have a gut feeling about this one, although it admittedly makes no sense on paper.

Browns 23, Bengals 20

New York Giants at Kansas City: I was going to roll the dice on this one as well, but the Giants are just too steady.

Giants 24, Chiefs 17

Detroit at Chicago: Now that the Lions have gotten that win out of the way, they can relax and go back to being horrible.

Bears 31, Lions 21

Tampa Bay at Washington: A great cure for insomnia. Two of the bottom five teams in the league with two of the most sleep-inducing offensive attacks you will ever see. A total snooze-fest made only for die-hards.

Redskins 16, Bucs 13

Seattle at Indianapolis: Jim Mora Jr., said over and over again after last week's loss to Chicago that Olinda Mare's missed field goals were "unnacceptable." By virture of the fact that Mare kept his job, it appears that they were, indeed, acceptable. What does "unnacceptable" mean if no action is taken? It means you've accepted the results. It's why I'm not a huge fan of guys like Mora-- lots of talk, little action.

Colts 29, Seahawks 20

New York Jets at New Orleans: A Super Bowl preview? Let's not go overboard quite yet, but this certainly shapes up as a very intruiging early season match-up. The Saints defense joined the party last week in Buffalo and New Orleans will be virtually impossible to beat if the D can even halfway match the offense. Speaking of defense, the Jets D is nasty-- but I'll side with the home team here.

Saints 24, Jets 20

Buffalo at Miami: Two squads going nowhere fast. Losing Chad Pennington is actually a blessing in disguise for Miami-- they needed to find out if Chad Henne belongs in the NFL, and at 0-3, this is a good time to start getting that answer. The Bills are totally stuck in neutral.

Dolphins 20, Bills 17

St. Louis at San Francisco: Crushing way to lose last week for the 49ers-- a road win in Minnesota could have vaulted them into serious contention in the NFC. As it stands now, I still view them as the odds-on favorite to win the West, but I can't see them going very far beyond that. They seem to be winning in spite of Shaun Hill, which always makes me wary.

49ers 24, Rams 10

Dallas at Denver: I thought 5 wins was going to be the ultimate upside for the Broncos in 2009. At 3-0, they are making me look foolish. However, I can't get past the fact that they won their first game on a miracle and their last two against the putrid Browns and Raiders. They can make me a believer if they do it again this week, but I don't see it happening.

Cowboys 27, Broncos 17

San Diego at Pittsburgh: Chargers are catching the Steelers at the worst possible time-- coming home after back to back close losses on the road.

Steelers 26, Chargers 19

Green Bay at Minnesota: The Packers were my pick to win the North this year and I thought long and hard about picking them to upset the Vikings in the Metrodome on Monday Night. But the Vikings are simply too balanced, and we all know the atmosphere will be electric in Minnesota. Everyone keeps talking about how motivated Brett Favre will be, but don't forget about his counterpart, Aaron Rodgers. Ah, forget it, I'll go with my gut.

Packers 30, Vikings 27

Lock of the Week:

Chiefs (+8.5) vs. Giants. Huge number for a road favorite. Gotta figure the Giants are due for at least a struggle with all of their injuries.

2. Browns (+5.5) vs. Bengals. They say never bet "the due," but the Browns are due to at least be competitive.

3. Dolphins (+2) vs. Bills. Yet another home underdog, sticking with the theme.

4. Packers (+ 3.5) at Vikings. Even if the Vikings win, I think this one stays very close.

Joe's College Football Plays

YTD Record 10-13

-1.10 UNITS

Week 5 Write-Ups:

129 Toledo -5
130 Ball State

Total 60.5

Point blank - Ball State has been horrible this season, losing to North Texas, New Hampshire (1-AA), Army, and Auburn. Ball Sate has won the last 3 in this match-up, but they had an NFL QB in Nate Davis leading the way - the talent on this team is now bare (which is why Brady Hoke went to San Diego State). Ball State is 4-9 in their MAC openers and 3-7 in their last 10 as a home dawg. To add to the angles on this game BSU shut-out Toledo last year, so expect some revenge to come into play in this contest. Toledo is 9-1 in their last 10 as a road favorite by less than 10 points, Toledo’s QB; Opelt is leading a very strong MAC level offense that has put up 31 against Purdue, 54 against Colorado, and 41 against Florida Atlantic. Toledo returns 16 starters from last season, while Ball State lost their top QB, 3 of 4 lineman and a great head coach. Expect the Rocket's offense to keep rolling against a beat up, and mentally defeated Ball State bunch. Keep fading the boys from Muncie and take the Rockets.

TAKE 129

1 UNIT

133 Mississippi - 9
134 Vanderbilt

Total 45

Last year in this match-up Vandy got a straight up win as Ole' Miss committed 6 turnovers, outgained Vandy by almost 200 yards, and had 1st and goal to tie the game at the 3 yard line but fumbled into the end zone to lose the game. Mississippi is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games, 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games after an ATS loss, and Vanderbilt is coming into this game pretty banged up with 10 scholarship players out for this weeks game - with starting WR John Cole and Safety Sean Richardson the latest and most significant casualties. Coach Bobby Johnson was quoted "Yeah it hurts, but this happens in football, you just have to go do the best you can do." Vandy's best this week will not keep them under this number as Mississippi comes in with some revenge, some anger from last weeks debacle, and in an obvious "bounce-back" spot. Vandy has had some trouble scoring this year with 20 trips into opponents red zone and only scoring 3 TD's and 4 FG's, which does not bode well against a solid defense (#8 in the nation) like Mississippi rolls out on the field on Saturday. Mississippi comes in battered after a loss on Thursday night @ South Carolina. They have had 10 days to prepare for this game and get back on track as Jevan Snead's ability has been questioned and coach Patrino's coaching abilities have come into question as well. The folks from Oxford are not happy and come into this game with something to prove - Houston Nutt was angrily quoted describing his offense "getting first downs and putting points on the board, it has taken us too long to get going. I expect that to change now. I really do." So expect the Rebels to bring a business like attitude into Nashville this week and lay the chalk.

TAKE 133

2 UNITS

157 Western Michigan
158 Northern Illinois – 7

Total 52

Northern Illinois is 3-13 ATS in their last 16 as home chalk and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games. So laying the points at home with the Huskies is not a winning proposition. Last week we cashed a ticket with Idaho going in to De Kalb as 17 point dawgs and winning outright. This week we have a stronger offensive club (in the passing game) with Tim Hiller and Co.’s Arial attack coming into De Kalb for a battle that has typically been close over the years. The last 3 games have been decided by 2, 3, and 2 points respectively – all of which were WMU S/U wins. The Huskies are starting to feel the losses on their defense as their starting DT, LB, and DE are out this week against the Broncos. Look for this to be another close MAC battle and for WMU to keep this under the number and possible win outright, adding to NIU’s home chalk woes.

TAKE 157

1 UNIT

183 Arkansas
184 Texas A&M - PK

Total 67

First meeting since 1991 for these former Southwest Conference rivals. It is probably a little known fact that A&M comes in with the #1 offense in the country against Arkansas in a neutral site game at the house that "Jerrah Built." Arkansas comes in with a very solid offense as well and this game is expected to be a shootout with the OVER getting pounded each day (It is currently at 67 and could possibly hit 70 by kickoff). The key to A&M's offensive success however is the fact that they have played nobody, check out these world beaters - New Mexico State (41-6), Utah State (38-30), and UAB (56-19). A&M has had consistent problems when stepping up in class and this is no exception - Add in wins last year that Sherman’s crew has complied against the likes of Army, New Mexico, Iowa State and Colorado then examine the rest of the games A&M has lost (against solid to above average competition) which appears to be the norm for this club we see that they get pounded when stepping up in class (by an average score of 45-22). Expect Ryan Mallett and coach Patrino to come into Arlington motivated on national TV and lay some wood on the Aggies in their home state.

TAKE 183

1 UNIT

189 SMU
190 TCU -28

Total 51.5

TCU comes into the “battle for the Iron Skillet” off a monster win at Clemson last week and with their Mountain West opener against Air Force on deck. To make this situation even more appealing, TCU throttled the Mustangs last year 48-7. It appears that June Jones has things moving in the right direction for the SMU program, they have upgraded the receiver position with 3 very solid WR’s and Bo Levi Mitchell is a solid QB who can run June Jones’ spread/run and shoot attack. SMU should be 3-0 if not for the “bad beat” on the road at Pullman that I wrote about last week. SMU has had 2 weeks to prepare for this game, so look for Jones and Mitchell to have the short passing game dialed up to attack the relentless, aggressive, blitzing style of TCU. Back in 2005 in this same position (TCU undefeated and talking BCS, after a huge win v. Oklahoma) SMU won outright as 14 point dawgs, with an offense that wasn’t as potent as it is today. Also, note that TCU is replacing several players on its vaunted defense this year and runs a solid balanced attack that is typically not in the position of laying or even covering such a large number - especially in a let down situation and against a team that they should handle with ease. Take the points and the Skillet with the ‘Stangs and look for this game to be closer than expected.

TAKE 189

1 UNIT

The Redskins, Charlie Brown, Me, and Sore Groins

2009-09-29T09:29:00.002-05:00

I don’t ever remember Lucy kicking Charlie Brown in the nuts.

For years, I’ve tried to describe that being a Redskins fan is much like Charlie Brown trying to kick the football from Lucy’s hold. In the analogy, I’m Charlie Brown and the Redskins are Lucy. I know she’s going to pull the ball away at the last second, she knows that she’s going to pull the ball away at the last second, and we both know that I’m going to wind up flat on my back, a little hurt and very embarrassed. The rest of the kids (other NFL fans, my friends and family) will all watch and either revel in my misery or offer some form of pity. But much like Charlie, I keep convincing myself that this time, she’s going to finally let me make contact. Year after year, and week after week, I take a running start, gear up for my big kick, and wind up flailing in the wind before having the wind knocked out me from falling on the hard ground.

But Lucy has never been this cruel. She never walked over to Charlie while he was down and stomped on his gonads. She never took the ball and slammed him in his cojones. She never did a flying leap off the top turnbuckle and aimed for his family jewels. But that’s what the Redskins did to me this past Sunday by losing to the Lions and forever etching themselves in NFL lore as an answer to a trivia question: Which team did the Lions beat to end their 19 game losing streak? The Redskins of course…..

Funny thing is that I saw this coming. Not in the preseason, not after a week one loss to the Giants, and not even after we looked awful in week two, just surviving the lowly Rams. I saw this coming back in April when the NFL schedule was released. I noticed we played the Lions in week two…I noticed they played the Saints and the Vikings to start the year….I figured they’d lose those two…..I figured they wouldn’t lose them all….I figured we might be in trouble. Six months later, the shot to the groin arrived, but despite the preparation, it still hurt. Bad.

There is a silver lining to all of this. I think the Lions crotch-shot may have been a death blow for me. I’ve got nothing left. My tank is empty. I’m out of white flags. Me, and all of my parts, are numb.

I just have a few final words for certain members of the Redskins organization:

Clinton Portis: Thanks for playing as hard on Sundays as anyone I’ve ever seen, but this “Clinton Portis can’t do it all by himself” act is very, very tired. The pouting has grown old. The constant criticism of coaches and teammates while deflecting any accountability yourself is lost on me. Joe Gibbs made you a cornerstone of his rebuilding process, and for the most part, you delivered. Overall, I have good memories of you as a Redskin. But I’m ready for you to leave. Sounds like you might be ready to leave as well. Goodbye. And oh yeah, one reason our offense lacks explosion and big plays is because you have zero ability left to break big runs.

Jason Campbell: Five years later, and I still don’t know what to make of you. I think you’ve suffered from poor coaching and constant changes. I don’t think your coaches have shown much faith in you. You’ve been a good soldier through the media and everyone says you are an extremely likeable guy and a hard worker. But sometimes, if you want to make your way in this league or in this world, you’ve got to make your own opportunities. Even with some of the handicaps you’ve been dealt, there have been chances for you—chances that you have yet to seize. I still think there is hope for you, but I’m not sure if it can happen in Washington—we may need a stronger presence at such an important position.

Deangelo Hall: Congratulations on getting two dysfunctional organizations to pay you ridiculous money in a two-year span. It took the Raiders half a season to figure out they made a gigantic error—not quite sure if the Redskins are ready to admit it as well, but they should. You are a decent player, but certainly not worth the dough or the trouble. In many ways (and this is not your fault) you are a symbol of all that is wrong with the Redskins. The organization allows homegrown players like Antonio Pierce and Ryan Clark to walk, while vastly overpaying for the services of bigger names. Not only does it hurt the team cap-wise in the long run, it also advances a culture of inconsistency and makes team unity and the like much more difficult to attain.

Chris Samuels: I’m so sorry. You’ve been an amazing player for us both on and off the field. An absolute gem of a draft pick, you’ve done everything that’s ever been asked of you. If you played for the Patriots, Cowboys, or Giants people would be talking about your Hall of Fame credentials. You’ve been a bright spot in this land of darkness. For your sake, I hope that someday, you get to experience being a champion—because you deserve it.

Vinny Cerrato: You’re not as bad as some make you out to be, but that’s not saying much. If nothing else, the perception of you as a lackey for your boss hurts our rep around the league. No one takes you seriously. It wasn’t so bad when you were just a glorified racquetball buddy for Danny, but now that you have actual power, you are getting exposed. You seem like a nice guy, and your performance in “Kindegarten Ninja” wasn’t too bad. I’d actually suggest a return to Hollywood—probably a better fit for you.

Jim Zorn: It’s not your fault. It’s not your fault that you weren’t ready to be a head coach in the NFL. It’s not your fault that Danny and Vinny “saw something” in you. I can actually see what they saw—you are an engaging personality and I do think you have some fight and grit inside of you. I do think you have a certain toughness and confidence that I like, but ultimately, you are in over your head. Your ego won’t allow you to take a step back from playcalling duties—an area where you struggle more than any playcaller I’ve ever seen. I’m not sure what’s worse—the plays you call or the way you defend those calls after the game. You are a victim of poor leadership from the top. It’s not your fault, but you’re not the answer.

Dan Snyder: Check my track record: I’ve been one of your strongest supporters since you bought the team. I’ve defended you every chance I get. I think the media and fans have not treated you fairly over the years. People glossed over the fact that the Redskins were HORRID before you arrived and that you were not responsible for the Norv Turner years or the disappointment that is FedEx Field. Things were much worse when you took ownership than people were willing to admit. And God love you, you’ve tried. I do not doubt your effort or your love for the team. I do not believe you are a greedy grinch who only cares about the bottom line. I do believe you want to win. But I’m done defending you. Eventually, results speak for themselves—and your results stink. As with any organization, things can always be traced to the top—and with the Redskins, you are certainly at the top. Everything that trickles down is a reflection of you. You brought Joe Gibbs back and gave him total control—and not surprisingly, things were much better during those four years. Now that you have once again taken an active role and the leadership chain of command is muddled, chaos has ensued. The team is in disarray and the fans are revolting. Quite frankly, you don’t know what you are doing. I am not imploring you to sell the team (although I wouldn’t complain if you did), but I am imploring you to find a singular voice to run the organization. Someone with a proven track record…someone that controls football operations. Remove yourself from your perch. It may be the only way you can save your legacy with the fanbase.

Hope never completely fades. If it did, there would no longer be any reason to watch. And I’m still watching. I’ll be watching next week when the 0-3 Bucs come to town with a QB making his first career start. I’ll be sitting there wearing my Redskins jersey and hoping for the best. But there are no longer any expectations, other than the expectation of continued misery. You can’t hurt me anymore.

You can aim for the crotch all you want this Sunday, but from now on, I’ll be wearing a cup.

Week Three Picks, Pats, and Pardons

2009-09-24T06:21:00.004-05:00

Last Week: 9-7
Redskins: 1-0
Against the Spread: 3-1
Lock of the Week: 1-0

Season: 22-10
Redskins: 2-0
Against the Spread: 5-3
Lock of the Week: 1-1

Last Week's Pats: A down week picking games straight-up, but I did quite well with my picks against the spread, including nailing the Bears to beat the Steelers by three points. Also nailed a couple of other upsets including the Ravens over Chargers and Saints over Ealges (techincally an upset).

Last Week's Pardons: Not sure if I gave the Cowboys too much credit or if I didn't give the Giants enough. Either way, I should have known to favor New York in what I figured was going to be a close game. The Giants aren't worlds better than the Cowboys, but they are just a little bit better every time they play- which is all that matters. Eli Manning continues to be the most under-valued player in the NFL.

This Week's Picks:

Tennessee at New York Jets: Very, very tough game to call. The Jets have caught my eye because their defense has been so utterly dominant these first two weeks. Normally, I might chalk that up to beginner's luck, but considering Rex Ryan is calling the shots, that unit is most likely the real deal. The Titans had the best record in the NFL last year, but are staring 0-3 in the face. I'm going to take a bit of a gamble and predict Tennessee to sneak out of NY with a win.

Titans 20, Jets 17

Jacksonville at Houston: The Texans rebounded brilliantly in Tennessee last week following their losuy effort in week one. The Jaguars just aren't very good. Should be a competitive game, but a game the Texans should take.

Texans 27, Jaguars 20

Kansas City at Philadelphia: The most disappointing team in the NFL last week had to be the Chiefs. The had a very nice showing in week one at Baltimore in a losing effort, but they laid an egg at home against the Raiders. Kansas City lost a game in which the opposing QB was 7-24 for the game. I had the Chiefs pegged as a surprise team this year, but so far, I'm not impressed.

Eagles 26, Chiefs 17

Cleveland at Baltimore: The Giants are #1 in my power rankings right now, followed closely by the Ravens. Baltimore has finally found the answer to their offensive woes in Joe Flacco. The Browns are floundering. The Ravens are a smart pick this week for anyone in a Survivor League.

Ravens 30, Browns 13

New York Giants at Tampa Bay: Even though New York comes into this game banged up, they are still significantly more talented and experienced than Tampa. I could see this being somewhat of a plodding game, but one the Giants will control.

Giants 24, Bucs 14

Washington at Detroit: Trap Game! But not for who you think....everyone and their Grandma is predicting the Lions to break their 19 game losing streak this week, and as a Redskins fan, I certainly fear my team becoming an answer to a trivia question. However, the reverse psychology here might actually help Washington. The Lions are almost expected to win this game, while everyone is down on the Redskins (rightfully so) after their ugly 9-7 win over the Rams last week. While hyperbole and emotion is great, there is still a game to be played... and that means Matthew Stafford needs to find a way to move the ball consistently against a top 5 defense. I don't see it happening....although, I'd be far from surprised if it did.

Redskins 23, Lions 13

Green Bay at St. Louis: Don't let last week's close loss in Washington fool you-- the Rams stink. Marc Bulger does a decent job of not making any huge errors, which may help keep some of the final scores in check this year, but they will struggle mightily to win games. The Packers get well this week after a bad loss at home.

Packers 31, Rams 16

San Francisco at Minnesota: The 49ers are 2-0, but I'm not buying them quite yet. I'd like to see them go on the road and beat a good team...they will have their chance this week.

Vikings 28, 49ers 14

Atlanta at New England: I guess recapturing the magic of 2007 isn't as easy as I thought it would be for the Pats. I'm officially off that bandwagon, however, I do think the Pats find a way against a very good Atlanta team this week.

Patriots 27, Falcons 24

Chicago at Seattle: A bit difficult to call this one considering the uncertain status of Matt Hasselbeck; either way I'd stay as far away from this game as possible for you "players" out there. Still waiting for Matt Forte to make an impact for Chicago... this seems like a good spot considering what Fran Gore did to the Seahawks last week.

Bears 23, Seahawks 21

New Orleans at Buffalo: Quietly, this could be one of the more entertaining games on the board this week. Drew Brees is simply on fire right now, and I don't think the Bills have the defense to cool him down. Having said that, I've also been very impressed with Trent Edwards, Fred Jackson, and the Bills offense this year....I'm expecting a shootout, with Brees getting the last shot.

Saints 35, Bills 31

Miami at San Diego: Miami seemed to get by on smoke and mirrors last year, and their 0-2 start this season seems to be proving that out. The Wildcat is a great change of pace, but the problem for Miami is that is their only pace. It's not a good sign when your offense is at it's best when your starting QB is on the bench. The Chargers are soft as Charmin, but they do put points on the board.

Chargers 27, Dolphins 17

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati: In my pre-season picks, I said the Steelers would struggle a bit and the Bengals would be much better than expected. We will get a good test of both theories this Sunday. Carson Palmer completely legitimizes Cincinnati and their defense looks to have a bit more bite than in year's past. I see a very close game, but I'm not quite sure Cincy is ready to take that big of a step quite yet.

Steelers 22, Bengals 20

Denver at Oakland: I have no idea, I really don't. I still think these are two of the worst teams in the NFL, yet they've combined for a 3-1 start. Jamarcus Russell is beyond awful, yet the Raiders are a few plays away from being 2-0. When it's all said and done, I still think we're looking at two double-digit loss teams here, but in the AFC West, anything is possible...

Raiders 17, Broncos 13

Indianapolis at Arizona: Another tough call. Watching Peyton Manning is such a treat...the Colts only had the ball for 15 minutes against Miami, but that is all he needed. Manning is worth 10 wins a season all by himself-- the Colts are clearly on pace for another run at the AFC crown, despite some very obvious flaws throughout their roster. Arizona got a much needed road win in Jacksonville last Sunday, but I see them falling to 0-2 at home.

Colts 30, Cardinals 26

Carolina at Dallas: The Cowboys should take a page out of the Panthers playbook and simply take the ball out of Tony Romo's hands right now. Dallas has shown the ability to be a dominant rushing offense, and with the way Romo looked against the Giants, that should be their focus. On paper, I like the Cowboys a lot this week, but with Dallas, everything is an adventure.

Cowboys 26, Panthers 23

Lock of the Week:

Packers (-6.5) at Rams: Packers will move the ball at will.

2. Ravens (-13) vs. Browns. Total mismatch, although large NFL spreads do make me nervous.

3. Panthers (+9.5) at Cowboys. A vote of distrust for the Cowboys

4. Redskins (-6.5) at Lions. A "trap game" for the Lions? Say it ain't so.

Week Two Picks, Pats, and Pardons

2009-09-17T05:48:00.003-05:00

Last Week: 13-3
Season: 13-3
Record Picking Redskins Games: 1-0
Against the Spread: 2-2
Lock of the Week: 0-1

Last Week's Pats: 13-3 is a pretty darn good start, but I really don't think I can brag too much as the favorites more or less held serve. I was one point off for both teams with my Redskins-Giants pick.

Last Week's Pardons: Blew the first Lock of the Week this year. Buffalo really surprised me; covering the spread easily and coming extremely close to pulling the upset in New England. I was also way off on my Jets-Texans pick and I thought Indy was going to handle the Jags with ease.

This Week's Picks:

Oakland at Kansas City: The Raiders were very competitve against the Chargers last week, but it was in spite of Jamarcus Russell, not because of him. He might be the least accurate QB I've ever seen on the NFL level-- it's shocking how badly he routinely misses his receivers. The Chiefs put up a nice fight in Baltimore and I expect Kansas City to emerge with a fairly easy win this week.

Chiefs 24, Raiders 13

Houston at Tennessee: I pegged the Texans as a surprise team last year and rode them early--- they rewarded me with an 0-4 start. Once again I've tagged them as a playoff team and once again they lay an egg to open the season. My gut tells me they pull an upset in Tennessee this week, but I've decided to ignore it.

Titans 20, Texans 17

New England at New York Jets: The Patriots stumbled offensively early against Buffalo, but Tom Brady still finished with awesome numbers. It is going to be extremely difficult for any defense to keep New England under 24 points this season. Defensively, the Pats looked very vulnerable; conversely, the Jets were sharp in all facets. Still, I like New England here.

Patriots 30, Jets 23

Cincinnati at Green Bay: Losing the way the Bengals lost week could have a cripling affect on their season. It was as horrible a way to start a year as I've ever seen. The Bengals are in a mentally fragile situation in the first place, and that kind of gut-wrenching defeat is not good for the psychi. Having said that, I'll go with my pre-season prediction that the Bengals are surprisingly competitive this year.

Packers 29, Bengals 21

Minnesota at Detroit: 18 losses in a row and counting.... in week 3 the Lions take on my Redskins and you better believe I'm already shaking in my boots at the thought of Detroit breaking the streak against us.

Vikings 31, Lions 17

New Orleans at Philadelphia: Hard to make a call here with the uncertain status of Donovan McNabb lingering in the air. Either way, this game has potential to be a shootout worthy of the AFL days. The Eagles defense was brilliant in Carolina last week, but can anyone slow down the Drew Brees Show? I'm taking the Saints regardless of McNabb's status.

Saints 30, Eagles 27

Carolina at Atlanta: The Panthers are staring 0-2 in the face, and John Fox may soon be pulling the plug on Jake Delhomme.

Falcons 23, Panthers 20

St. Louis at Washington: The Redskins won 8 games last year, but none of them were by double-digits. The also lost 8 games last year- included in those 8 was a home loss to the eventual 2-14 Rams. Washington should find a way to win this week, but don't expect them to look impressive in doing so.

Redskins 23, Rams 16

Arizona at Jacksonville: Tough call here. I did not pick Arizona to make it back to the playoffs this year, but they looked slightly worse than I thought they would against San Francisco in week 1. The Jags on the other hand, had a pretty nice effort against the Colts. I'll side with Arizona, but I'm not confident in this pick at all.

Cardinals 27, Jaguars 23

Seattle at San Francisco: An early-season game that could carry some pretty big playoff implications come January. Both teams were impressive last week, especially defensively. I'm going with the Seahawks to pull the minor upset: Matt Hasselbeck > Shaun Hill.

Seahawks 24, 49ers 20

Tampa Bay at Buffalo: Very impressed with Trent Edwards and the Bills offense last week, while the Cowboys exposed the many issues facing Tampa this year.

Bills 27, Bucs 14

Cleveland at Denver: Denver's defense was certainly much better than I anticipated in week one; but I'm not changing my tune on their overall prospects for the season. Going with the Browns in an upset.

Browns 22, Broncos 20

Baltimore at San Diego: Joe Flacco has finally brought some playmaking ability to the Ravens offense. Looks like they might need it as the defense may be slipping a bit. The Chargers continue to underachieve while taking advantage of a horrid division. I'm picking another upset here.

Ravens 24, Chargers 21

Pittsburgh at Chicago: Bad news for Chicago is that Jay Cutler threw four picks last week. Good news is that despite those turnovers, they played right with a tough Packers team on the road. Chicago has a good mix of talent on offense and losing Troy Polamalu is a huge blow for the Steelers. The upsets keep rolling...

Bears 26, Steelers 23

New York Giants at Dallas: When you talk about Eli Manning vs. Tony Romo, you are talking about consistent precision vs. big boom/big bust. In the longrun, I'll take Manning's surgical approach to the game to Romo's gunslinging, but it does make for an interesting match-up. The Giants are the better team, but I like Dallas at home this week.

Cowboys 27, Giants 23

Indianapolis at Miami: Both of these offenses were stuck in the mud last week, and losing Anthony Gonzalez will only make things more difficult for Peyton and the Colts. But Miami just looked dreadful trying to move the ball last week. I have a feeling the Dolphins are going to struggle recreating their success from lasr year.

Colts 21, Dolphins 16

Against the Spread

Lock of the Week:

Bears (+3) vs. Steelers: Might seem a bit crazy to pick against the champs as my lock of the week, but I have a strong feeling about this one.

2. Ravens (+3) at Chargers: Don't trust the Chargers one bit.

3. Chiefs (-3) vs. Raiders: Raiders fought hard last week, but their offense will struggle all year.

4. Texans (+6.5) at Titans: I'll give Houston yet another chance to make me look dumb. I say they keep it close.

Joe's College Football Plays

YTD Record 5-7

-1.70 UNITS

Week 3 Write-Ups:

115 Boston College
116 Clemson - 7

Total 44.5

This is the first road game of the year for BC and they have not played a soul this year. They pummeled Northeastern and beat Kent State who has the 105th ranked offense in D1. The trends say to lean to the dawg in this series as the pup is 4-0 in the last 4. That trend gets bucked on Saturday as BC, who is rotating 3 QB's, will find the going tough in Death Valley against a hungry team who has had 10 days to prepare for this game. Clemson returns 8 starters on defense and will be bringing heat all day on the inexperienced BC QB’s. Clemson will also flash more speed than BC has seen all season. CJ Spiller will find ample running lanes with BC's top 3 linebackers out of this game (one was done before the season, and 2 were hurt last week). The Tigers played a very solid Ga. Tech team tough 2 weeks ago and should be primed for their ACC home opener. Clemson comes in 4-1 ATS in their last 5 as a favorite and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 ACC tilts. BC is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games. Ride Spiller, the amped crowd, and the speed - and look for the Tigers to lay the lumber in Death Valley.

TAKE 116

2 UNITS

189 Cincinnati - 1

190 Oregon State

Total: 55.5

The Bearcats have the hottest coach in the country in Brian Kelley. I personally hope that he replaces Jim Tressel at Ohio State but that is wishful thinking. He has steadily built programs wherever he has coached and Cincy is no exception. Cincy has done nothing but taken care of business against outclassed foes. Cincy pulled the starters by halftime against SE Missouri last week and dismantled Rutgers in Week 1. However in Week 1, Cincy was helped by 3 interceptions by an inept Rutgers QB who has already been replaced by a true freshman. Oregon State went on the road and beat a solid UNLV team, in some major desert heat (although did not cover) and now comes home to take on Cincy where the Beavers are 15-4 S/U and 11-6 ATS over the past 3 seasons. The Beavers are also 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. Jaquizz Rodger's ankle is fine and he is cleared to play. This game will be in a hostile environment where Mike Reilly will have the troops ready to play. Also note that the game is an evening game on the West Coast, which will only help the home team. There is a small revenge factor here as Oregon State was crushed in 2007 @ Cincy as a small favorite, a game in which the Beavers committed 7 turnovers.

TAKE 190

1 UNIT.

151 SMU - 6
152 Washington State

Total 58.5

First ever meeting between the 2 teams. Let's face it, Paul Wulff has had a rough go of things in Pullman, and has been beaten up on a weekly basis. To top things off, WSU played June Jones' old team (Hawaii) last week and lost by 18 to a pass happy attack that tuned the 'Cougs up with 450+ yards passing and 5 TD's, 3 through the air. Well, June Jone's new project comes into town this week and Bo Levi Mitchell and Co. will be looking to chuck the ball all over the yard in Pullman. Mitchell has averaged 45+ Attempts in the first 2 games and I expect nothing but the same here, which should allow the Mustangs to build a large lead and never look back. The Cougs also benched starter Kevin Lopina, and will start a new QB this week - Marshall Lobbestael who has 115 yards passing on the season and a pick.

TAKE 151

1 UNIT.

183 Texas Tech
184 Texas -17

Total 67

This has all the makings of a UT blowout - ABC College Game Day/feature game, Big 12 opener, major revenge factor based on the fact that Leach and crew basically cost the Horns a shot in the BCS Championship Game last year, even after they beat Oklahoma head to head. You know that Colt McCoy and Mack Brown had this game circled back in August. Texas has covered 4 of the last 5 at home against the Red Raiders by an average margin of 35 points. To top that off, the Red Raiders only return 4 offensive starters and have a new QB starting his first huge game on the road. Also, the Raider's best WR, Detron Lewis is questionable and their best defensive player DE – Ra’Jon Henley has been in a protective boot all week. Look for the Texas D to bottle up the Raiders and for McCoy and company to lay the wood, payback style in Austin.

TAKE 184

1 UNIT

107 Northern Illinois
108 Purdue – 13

Total 55.5

This game seems to have a bit of a discount. Northern Illinois was down by 22 points entering mid-third quarter against Wisconsin, when the Badgers took their foot off the gas and allowed Northern Illinois to come back and cover this game with 14 points scored in the 4th quarter against back-ups. Wisconsin also looked vulnerable last week against Fresno State and features a more plodding attack that NIU matches up well against. Purdue on the other hand is 2-0 ATS this season and should have won S/U @ Oregon last week. The Boilers gave up 2 touchdowns on turnovers (a pick 6 and fumble return), but still managed to cover and had a chance for an outright W. Northern Illinois is not in the same class as Oregon and Purdue should lay some wood here, as they are playing very well under Coach Hope. NIU is replacing tons of starters on defense and are just not made up to handle a quick strike attack like Purdue. Look for Purdue to score early and often and not take their foot off of the gas until this game is well in hand.

TAKE 108

1 UNIT.

A Poem For the Pokes

2009-09-13T01:04:00.003-05:00

For one week, the streets of Oklahoma were lined with orange and black

With Cowboys and Cowgirls all leading the pack

For one week, it was so glorious to be a Poke

It was finally the Sooners as the butt of the joke

For one week, pistols were firing from Guymon to Meeker

While the outlook in Norman could not have been bleaker

For one week, Crimson and Cream faithful were shedding a tear

As OSU fans proclaimed, “it is finally our year!”

For one week, Stillwater seemed brighter and bolder

While in Norman they worried about Sammy’s sore shoulder

For one week, Zach and Dez were the toast of the town

As poor Kevin Wilson played the role of the clown

For one week, Cowboy Nation had reason to brag

Sports Illustrated even put em’ on the front of their mag

For one week, those fans were boastful and bold

While the air down in Norman got incredibly cold

The problem with one week is that lasts just seven days

Saturday rolls around and you need to call new plays

The Cowboys went out and they did what they do

They stumbled and bumbled, and fumbled some too

They got behind early as their fans thought “It can’t be!”

“I thought this was our year, where the hell is the D!?”

They had one last chance, but Zach threw a pick

As Coach Gundy had flashbacks to “this makes me sick.”

The game had ended and Houston had won

Hope quickly faded from so much to none

Some fans yelled, “This always happens to us Pokes”

“Now we’ll just wait for the heckles and jokes.”

“I don’t ask much, one year of glory I seek.”

“Why can’t we get there for more than one week?”

For one week it was attention, praise, and some glory

For one week, the Cowboys were a very hot story

Somewhere Boone Pickens gazed up at the sky

And asked the football Gods, “why, oh why?”

“We’ve tried so hard and we’ve done so much”

“A championship trophy I so long to touch”

Boone begged and pleaded, he demanded to know

He wanted more wins for all of his dough

The Gods thought it over and came up with a reply

Boone was so excited he started to cry

“We’ve decided to let you touch football heaven.”

“You’ll get one more week….in 2027.”

Week One Picks, Pats, and Pardons

2009-09-08T16:41:00.006-05:00

Picks, Pats, and Apologies returns for a 5th season. While the spirit of the weekly segment will remain the same, you may notice that the name has changed. I've adopted a suggestion from a member of Extremeskins.com (so sorry, I forget who). I like alliteration, and "pardons" flows much better than "apologies" ever did.

Each week in this space I will make my weekly NFL Picks and review what I did right ("Pats" on the back and wrong-"Pardons-" from the previous week. In addition to picking each game straight-up, I will offer four picks against the spread and my lock of the week.

In two seasons picking against the spread, I am 62-65-4, which isn't anything to brag about. But I've done quite well on my Locks of the Week, going a combined 20-12-1.

Here is a quick look back at 2005-2008 before we delve into week one this year.

2005

Regular Season: 163-91
Playoffs: 6-5 (correctly picked Super Bowl)
Record Picking Redskins Games (including playoffs): 14-4

2006

Regular Season: 146-110
Playoffs: 8-3 (correctly picked Super Bowl)
Record Picking Redskins Games: 8-8

2007

Regular Season: 166-90
Playoffs: 4-7 (missed Super Bowl)
Record Picking Redskins Games (including playoffs): 10-7
Against The Spread: 29-33-2
Lock of the Week: 10-6

2008

Regular Season: 167-88-1
Playoffs 5-6 (correctly predicted Super Bowl)
Record Picking Redskins Games: 7-9
Against the Spread: 33-32-2
Lock of the Week: 10-6-1

Week One

Tennessee at Pittsburgh: Since the NFL started the tradition of having the Super Bowl champs host the opening Thursday night game, the home team is undefeated-- and in most cases, they've won the game easily. The Steelers will have all the emotion of celebrating last year's Lombardi Trophy with the home fans and just for a little extra kick, I'm sure they will be reminded about the way Tennessee players stomped on the "terrible towels" last year. The Titans are too solid to get blown away, but I don't anticipate a nail-biter either.

Steelers 20, Titans 13

Miami at Atlanta: Two surprise teams from last year; this year I see one of them repeating or even bettering their success from 2008, while the other comes back down to earth a bit. The difference between these two teams is the difference between Matt Ryan and Chad Pennington. One guy has an unlimited ceiling, while the other has already reached his.

Falcons 27, Dolphins 20

Kansas City at Baltimore: If Matt Cassel was playing, I would have considered giving this game a look as my upset of the week, despite the fact that I'm picking Baltimore to win the North this year. As it stands now, I just can't see the Chiefs mounting enough offense to compete.

Ravens 24, Chiefs 12

Philadelphia at Carolina: The spread is at -1 for Philly, which is spot on. I've waffled on this game all week. Both teams are above-average, but both are overrated entering the season. I'm tossing a coin and picking the Eagles to squeek one out.

Eagles 24, Panthers 23

Denver at Cincinnati: I was going to make this my Lock of the Week until I saw that Vegas had the same idea I did: the Broncos aren't good and the Bengals are better than you think. Whenever we're dealing with Cincinnati, we must tread lightly, but I see them handling the Broncos on Sunday.

Bengals 28, Broncos 17

Minnesota at Cleveland: The Browns are a bit of a mystery to me, which makes picking this game pretty difficult. The Vikings have loads of weapons on offense, but I have a feeling Eric Mangini has his squad ready in his Cleveland coaching debut. Having said that, I see Minnesota hanging on for a late victory.

Vikings 26, Browns 23

New York Jets at Houston: Two teams that enter the season as darkhorse wild card contenders in my eyes. I see Mark Sanchez getting off to a solid start in his NFL debut, but I'm not sure the Jets will be able to slow down the 1-2 punch of Steve Slaton and Andre Johnson. Could be an entertaining game.

Texans 31, Jets 27

Jacksonville at Indianapolis: When it's all said done, the Colts will sit atop the division while the Jags bring up the rear. The weeding out process begins this Sunday.

Colts 30, Jaguars 20

Detroit at New Orleans: The Lions have a chance to break the hearts of thousands upon thousands of "Survivor League" players this weekend. But last I checked, the Lions were far from heartbreakers.

Saints 37, Lions 21

Dallas at Tampa Bay: Lousy teams will often play well early in the season before really beginning to cave. Make no mistake-- the Bucs are a lousy team, but I see them keeping this one respectable until late.

Cowboys 24, Bucs 16

San Francisco at Arizona: I'm far from sold on the Cardinals ability to repeat as West division champs, much less NFC champs, but I just don't see how the 49ers are going to scare anyone this year with their lack of speed and big plays on offense. They'll keep it close, but they won't be able to seal the deal.

Cardinals 28, 49ers 23

Washington at New York Giants: Two weeks ago, I penciled this game in as my upset of the week, but after watching the Giants a bit more closely and delving deeper into studying their roster, I am no longer seeing the upset. New York is solid everywhere and they should be able to run the ball against anyone-- even a defensive front as stout as Washington's. Same story for the Redskins-- if their offense can put 20+ points on the board, they can win. But getting to the total has been a major task in recent years.

Giants 22, Redskins 17

St. Louis at Seattle: Another game where I thought I'd be a step ahead of Vegas only to find out I was way off. The Seahawks have been installed as 8.5 point favorites-- mainly because the Rams stink. I was hoping to jump on what I thought would be a 4-5 point spread. It's an iffy play where it stands now.

Seahawks 31, Rams 21

Chicago at Green Bay: Very intruiging match-up between two very intruiging teams. This will not be your Grandads' Bears-Packers game. Both defenses have much to prove while both offenses should be able to light up the night. Look for a higher-scoring back and forth game with the Packers holding on late.

Packers 30, Bears 26

Buffalo at New England: Not liking the Bills chances at all-- on the road, facing Brady in his first game back, having just fired their offensive coordinator. Could be over at halftime.

Patriots 34, Bills 17

San Diego at Oakland: I considered this for my lock of the week as well, but I keep going back to what I said earlier about lousy teams usually playing well in the opener-- especially at home. But the Raiders are REALLY lousy. On paper, the two Monday Night games look like mismatches.

Chargers 28, Raiders 16

Against the Spread

Lock of the Week:

Patriots (-11) vs. Bills: Usually I find a lock in week one that I love, but not this year. The odds this week look dead on to me with nothing out of whack. I'm anticipating Tom Brady having a triumphant return.

2. Redskins (+6.5) at Giants: Don't like the Redskins outright, but I do like them to keep it close-- their defense won't get run over.

3. Colts (-7) vs. Jaguars: Jacksonville isn't good-- the Colts should be at least a touchdown better.

4. 49ers (+6.5) at Cardinals: I don't love this choice, but I think it's a solid play.

Joe Smith's College Football Plays (Week 2)

Season Record: 2-3

Payout: -.30 Units

Week 2 Plays:

317 Iowa -6
318 Iowa State

Total 46.5

TAKE 317 – 1 UNIT

331 BYU -18
332 Tulane

Total 53.5

TAKE OVER - 1 UNIT.

333 Purdue
334 Oregon -12

Total 58.5

TAKE 334 - 1 UNIT

353 Air Force
354 Minnesota -3

Total 48.5

TAKE 354 – 1 UNIT.

357 Western Michigan
358 Indiana -1.5

Total 52

TAKE 357 – 1 UNIT

361 Kansas – 12.5
362 UTEP

Total 62.5

TAKE 362 - 1 UNIT

391 Kansas State -7
392 Louisiana-Lafayette

Total 56

TAKE 391 – 1 UNIT

2009 NFL Predictions

2009-09-08T05:51:00.006-05:00

AFC East

New England Patriots (12-4): I haven't forgotten 2007. The last time Tom Brady was healthy, the Patriots had the greatest offensive season in the history of the NFL. While I don't see a 16-0 repeat, I do see New England running away from the rest of the pack in the East.

Miami Dolphins (9-7): I'm not totally buying into their division-winning season last year, but I'm not dismissing it either. Miami is very solid on both sides of the ball, but the Ravens did expose them in the playoffs last year, and I suspect that will happen a bit more often in 2009.

New York Jets (8-8): They Jets had a very nice off-season adding Mark Sanchez at QB and Rex Ryan as their head coach. These two men will infuse the organization and I could see the Jets making a big push in 2010. I think they surprise some people this year, but also take some lumps in the process.

Buffalo Bills (6-10): The Bills are stuck in neutral. When you sign an aging wide receiver and fire your offensive coordinator two weeks before the season starts, it's a clear sign to me that you lack direction and conviction in what you are doing. This looks like a shaky ship to me right now and I don't think Dick Jauron will be around to right it.

AFC North

Baltimore Ravens (11-5): I expect big things from Baltimore this year on the heels of their somewhat surprising run to the AFC Championship Game in 2008. Joe Flacco was impressive in his rookie season and he should only get better from here. Their defense is still formidable, and the offense is slowly starting to help. It will be battle with Pittsburgh for the North.

Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6): I see the Steelers struggling to repeat. When they won the Super Bowl in 2005, they stumbled a bit the following season and missed the playoffs. This year will be similar, although I do see them squeeking into the post-season.

Cincinnati Bengals (8-8): Possibly my biggest "surprise" pick of the season. Quietly, Cincinnati finished the season strong last year and I like the fact that Mike Brown decided to stick with Marvin Lewis. Carson Palmer is healthy again and I see their offense approaching what they did in 2005. The North is too tough for the Bengals to make a serious playoff run, but don't be shocked if they factor in the equation.

Cleveland Browns: (7-9): Much like Cincinnati, I see the Browns making big improvements under Eric Mangini. But the their schedule is pretty brutal and I do not think they'll be ready to compete with the Ravens or Steelers in the North.

AFC South

Indianapolis Colts (10-6): The Colts have become the easiest playoff pick of any team in the NFL. As long as Peyton is in charge, you can pretty much lock the Colts into 10+ wins. I have some concerns about the defense and the coaching transistion, but Indy will once again find themselves amongst a handful of AFC teams vying for the Super Bowl.

Houston Texans (9-7): The Texans have a deadly run-pass combo with Steve Slaton and Andre Johsnon. If Matt Schaub stays healthy (a big if), the Texans could post some of the best offensive numbers in the league this season. Making the playoffs for the first time in franchise history won't be easy, but I think the Texans squeeze in.

Tennessee Titans (9-7): This is an admittedly, "disrespectful" pick. As good and as tough as the Titans have been under Jeff Fisher, I find their off-season approach to sometimes be a bit "arrogant." It's as if they believe they can plug anyone into their system and succeed. And while that has proven highly effective in the regular season, their performance against the Ravens in the playoffs last year would seem to signal to them that at least a few tweaks were needed. Instead, they bring back virtually the same team from last year, minus Albert Haynesworth. I just don't know how long an offense can tread water with Kerry Collins-- I see some of those close wins from last season turning to close losses in 2009.

Jacksonville Jaguars (5-11): This may very well be the beginning of the Jags' farewell tour in Florida. Rumors continue to circulate that they will be in Los Angeles by 2012-- I don't think the on-field results this year will do anything to squash those rumors.

AFC West

San Diego Chargers (9-7): The Chargers will take advantage of a pathetic division, and crusie to the playoffs-- but they won't be there for long.

Kansas City Chiefs (7-9): I SO want to take the Chiefs as my major surprise pick of the year, but the Matt Cassel injury gives me pause. Also concerned about the upheaval in the coaching staff this close to the start of the season. I think the Chiefs are headed in the right direction, but I don't have the guts to pick them to win the division quite yet.

Denver Broncos (4-12): I'm not sure Josh McDaniels could have possibly gotten off to a worse start than he has in Denver. Jay Cutler was being a baby, but McDaniels should have been diplomatic and found a way for it to work. One of the hardest things to do in the NFL is find a young QB with franchise-type potential. Cutler fit that mold and now the Broncos have to start from scratch in their QB search. The offense will suffer mightily minus Cutler and the defense had major holes in the first place. Going to be a long year in Colorado.

Oakland Raiders (2-14): In a word, embarrassing. The Raiders make all of the other bottom-feeders (including the Lions) happy because they seem to absorb the majority of the punchlines around the league-- and with good reason. From their curious decision to retain Tom Cable as head coach to their curious draft selection of Darius Heyward-Bey to Cable's physical assault on an assistant coach to their dreadful pre-season, the Raiders are in shambles. The NFL may need to step in and do something about Al Davis- seriously.

Division Winners (in order): Patriots, Ravens, Colts, Chargers
Wild Cards (in order): Steelers, Texans

Wild Card Playoffs: Colts over Texans
Steelers over Chargers

Divisional Playoffs: Patriots over Steelers
Ravens over Colts

AFC Championship: Patriots over Ravens

NFC East

New York Giants (11-5): A very good argument could be made that the Giants were on their way to back-to-back Super Bowl titles before Plaxico Burress shot himself and theoretically shot the Giants season. Given an entire off-season to account for his departure, I see the Giants once again rising to the top of the NFC East. New York may have the fewest weaknesses of any team in the league, and their offense could be a tad on the boring side this season, but they will be able to run the ball against anyone, and Eli will make plays when necessary. The Giants are the class of an otherwise (slightly) overrated division.

Philadelphia Eagles (9-7): Not buying the hype-- at least not all of it. While I find the Eagles glut of talent on the offensive side of the ball intruiging, I'm just not sure how they are all going to be able to make an impact. I don't see Michael Vick having an impact either way, and I until Brian Westbrook stays healthy for an entire year, I'll continue to have doubts about the overall potency of their attack. The Eagles are a solid team, but an overrated one.

Dallas Cowboys (9-7): If Wade Phillips wasn't their coach, I'd predict good things for Dallas in 2009. I really like the overall mix they have and I think Tony Romo could flourish now that the offense appears to be distraction-free. Similar to the Giants, the Cowboys don't have any glaring weaknesses, but Phillips has proven throughout his career that he will more often than not find a way to finish on the low side of expectations.

Washington Redskins (8-8): Not sure there is a more average team in the NFL thesedays. Similar to the Cowboys, even if the upside is 10-6 or 11-5, the Redskins will most likely find a way to finish with 8 or 9 wins and miss the playoffs. The defense has the potential to be stellar, but Jim Zorn and Jason Campbell have a long way to go on the other side of the ball.

NFC North

Green Bay Packers (10-6): I think I may have been a year off on the Packers. I predicted them to win the NFC last season and they rewarded my confidence with a 6-10 season. But looking deeper, I think their results last year may have been an anomoly. The offense was fantastic last year and a healthy Ryan Grant will only make them better. Defensively, they made some major upgrades and invested draft choices. I don't think Green Bay makes me look foolish this time around.

Minnesota Vikings (10-6): In the longrun, I'm just not sure Brett Favre makes them any better. More interesting? Certainly. But not necessarily better. As a matter of fact, I think they may have been better off sticking with Sage Rosenfels. Having said that, Favre will make some plays and he certainly has a bevy of playmakers with which to work. The Vikings will be a playoff-caliber team in a tough division.

Chicago Bears (9-7): Finally, the Bears have a QB. Jay Cutler will man that position for years to come for the Bears, and eventually, I see him leading them to big things. But right now, the Bears defense isn't quite up to the task of the keeping pace with the Packers and Vikings in the North-- but if the defense improves, the Bears could take the division.

Detroit Lions (2-14): They won't lose them all this year, but they'll sure try.

NFC South

Atlanta Falcons (11-5): It wasn't a fluke last year. The Falcons are legit. Matt Ryan will be better this year and the Falcons boast a very impressive and well balanced offensive attack. The South is another quality division, and the Falcons have the horses to take it this year.

New Orleans Saints (10-6): If you don't like Drew Brees, you are insane. His numbers are getting silly, and I don't see him slowing down anytime soon. The Saints will be in a number of shootouts this year, and as long as Brees is their gunslinger, I like their chances.

Carolina Panthers (9-7): While the Falcons and Saints each boast high-powered passing games with dynamic QB's, the Panthers passing game is slowly disappearing. Just not sure how long they can win in spite of Jake Delhomme, despite the fact that their running game is arguably the best in the league.

Tampa Bay Bucs (3-13): After this season, the Bucs may want to bust out the old, homoerotic pirate logo-- this team will be very reminiscent of those dreadful teams of the 70's and 80's.

NFC West

Seattle Seahawks (9-7): Seahawks aren't getting much attention entering this season, but many may be forgetting that Matt Hasselbeck spent most of last season on the mend, which helped open the door for the Cardinals to win the West. Seattle has holes, but the division is weak and Hasselbeck should make a huge difference.

Arizona Cardinals (9-7): Check the history books-- recent history tells us that Super Bowl losers have a terrible time making it back to the playoffs. The Cardinals will benefit from a weak division, but they may suffer from inflated expectations.

San Francisco 49ers (7-9): While the majority of the blame falls on Michael Crabtree himself for not signing with the 49ers, you must place some blame on the organization for not doing their homework. And the bottom line here is that a team that desperately needs some youthful infusion on offense has basically thrown away a first-round pick.

St. Louis Rams (4-12): Steve Spagnuola was a good hire and I seem him getting the Rams turned around, but this year, there are simply too many holes to fill-- the defense is virtually talent-less.

Division Winners (in order): Giants, Falcons, Packers, Seahawks
Wild Cards (in order): Vikings, Saints

Wild Card Playoffs: Packers over Saints
Vikings over Seahawks

Divisional Playoffs: Giants over Vikings
Packers over Falcons

NFC Championship: Giants over Packers

Super Bowl XLIV

New England 30
New York Giants 24

A great rematch of two years ago. Once again, the Patriots will enter as favorites (although by a much smaller number). This time, the Giants won't catch them off-guard and the Patriots offense won't be stymied like they were in 2007. A good game that will once again go down to the wire- New England gets their revenge.