NFL Picks, Pats, and Pardons Week 12

Last Week: 10-4
Season: 103-56
Redskins: 7-3
Against the Spread: 20-21-3 (Last Week 0-2-2)
Lock of the Week: 5-6- (Last Week 0-1)

Last Week's Pats: A couple of tough-luck pushes ATS...Correctly predicted the Lions over the Panthers in a shootout and for Seattle to pull a mild upset in St. Louis.

Last Week's Pardons: Missed pretty badly on my Vikings over Raiders upset and really dropped the ball on my lock of the Cardinals to cover in San Francisco.

This Week's Picks:

Green Bay at Detroit: All year long I've been waiting and anticipating this game to be my big upset call of the year, but now that the game is here, I just can't do it. The Packers look highly motivated at this point and show absolutely no signs of slowing down or taking a mulligan. I'm just not sure how you slow that offense down right now. I think the Lions will be game and make it interesting, but the Pack will prevail.

Packers 34, Lions 30

Miami at Dallas: Tony Romo deserves a ton of credit for his performance in Washington last week. The Redskins played very well and Romo answered the call to make tough plays when his team needed them. Dallas looks like the most stable team in the East right now.

Cowboys 26, Dolphins 16

San Francisco at Baltimore: I guess the Niners aren't fading anytime soon... At this point they have almost nothing to play for in terms of winning their division, but they also might be focused on catching the Packers for the #1 seed in the NFC. Baltimore, on the other hand, continues to look shaky against everyone other than Pittsburgh. A very iffy vote for the Ravens at home.

Ravens 20, 49ers 17

Minnesota at Atlanta: Vikings are hurting both literally and figuratively right now; the Falcons are sort of cruising along during a lull in their schedule. I see this one as a yawner that might stay close for awhile.

Falcons 24, Vikings 17

Houston at Jacksonville: Houston becomes such a question mark now that Matt Schaub has departed and Matt Leinert enters the equation. They should still be able to run the ball and no one in their divison is close enough to really scare them, but overall, this has to be a crushing blow to the Texans' overall hopes.

Texans 19, Jaguars 15

Tampa Bay at Tennessee: I continue to be thoroughly unimpressed with the Bucs following their fine season in 2010, but I'm still willing to bet there's a little fight left in them to pull an upset over the extremely average Titans.

Bucs 22, Titans 20

Arizona at St. Louis: Look away...

Cardinals 20, Rams 17

Cleveland at Cincinnati: Bengals may have been more impressive in their two most recent losses than they were in their previous six victories. Having said that, I do think they are slowly running out of gas and that this game comes at a bad time for them. Giving them a slight nod to win the game, but I see this as a big cover spot for Cleveland.

Bengals 17, Browns 12

Buffalo at New York Jets: Not sure if the Bills are as bad as they've looked the past three weeks, but they clearly aren't as good as they looked the first seven weeks. Jets are desperate and rested.

Jets 27, Bills 10

Carolina at Indianapolis: Shocking to think that a team could win their division one year and go 0-16 the next regardless of the circumstances. Panthers defense is horrible, but I expect Cam Newton to have another huge day.

Panthers 30, Colts 21

Washigton at Seattle: Throwing this upset pick at the wall to see if it sticks...Redskins have been competitive in every game Rex Grossman has started and may have found at least a sliver of momentum on offense last week.

Redskins 18, Seahawks 15

Chicago at Oakland: Sometimes in order to win for the first time in a long time, you need some luck. Raiders got a big stroke of luck this week catching the Bears reeling off the Jay Cutler injury. But the Bears are very tough and I expect their defense to keep them alive.

Raiders 19, Bears 16

New England at Philadelphia: Andy Reid is a proud man and an accomplished coach...he is going to find ways to get his team motivated and focused even in the face of long odds. Extremely impressive win for Philly in New York last week, but the Eagles defense won't have an answer for the Patriots attack.

Patriots 31, Eagles 26

Denver at San Diego: The only thing more fascinating than Tim Tebow's on-field success is the obsession with him off it. I have my doubts about the sustainability of his skill set as well, but I'm not afraid to admit that I'm really rooting for the guy. And while Tebow has been lighting up phone lines and newspaper columns, the Broncos have put together a pretty nice defensive unit. I'm siding with the home team here only because I am often paralyzed by the law of averages.

Chargers 27, Broncos 20

Pittsburgh at Kansas City: The NFL was waffling a few weeks ago on whether or not to flex this game out of primetime..they are probably kicking themselves now. Tyler Palko looked horrendous in his first career start last week and now gets to face the Steelers. Ouch.

Steelers 28, Chiefs 13

New York Giants at New Orleans: Is that late Giants fade underway again? It sure looked like it last Sunday night as the Giants tripped and fell over themselves from start to finish against a hobbled Eagles team. I don't see it getting much better for the G-Men facing a rested Saints squad.

Saints 33, Giants 23

Lock of the Week

Browns (+8) at Bengals

2. Redskins (+3.5) at Seahawks
3. Vikings (+10) at Falcons
4. Bucs (+3.5) at Titans