NFL Picks, Pats, and Pardons Week 11

Last Week: 7-9
Season: 93-52
Redskins: 6-3
Against the Spread: 20-19-1 (Last Week 2-2)
Lock of the Week: 5-5 (Last Week 1-1)

Last Week's Pats: My march towards total and complete mediocrity continues...I did snag my second lock in a row with the Steelers covering in Cincy and I was also on the right side of two pretty big 50/50 games last week (Saints and Patriots).

Last Week's Pardons: Blew the Texans horn for three years, jumped off the bandwagon about a month ago and they've been on fire ever since... and Tampa may very well be my biggest disappointment this season. Also missed on my upset pick of Indy to get their first win over the Jags. And I didn't forsee any of the bigger upsets coming either (Cardinals, Seahawks, Broncos).

This Week's Picks:

New York Jets at Denver Broncos: For the past several years quarterbacks like Peyton Manning and Drew Brees have been rewriting the record books and redefining how we view the position and even the sport in general. Tim Tebow may be poised to go on a similar journey albeit taking a completely different route. I find his skill set fascinating. My gut tells me that defenses eventually catch on and this blows up on Denver fairly soon, but there's also just something about Tebow that makes me think he can defy the odds. Bad spot for him this week though...

Jets 24, Broncos 12

Carolina at Detroit: Close to a must win game for the Lions if they want to escape their current mini slide and still stay very relevant in the playoff chase. I'm not surprised that Detroit got off to a hot start and I'm even less surprised that they've circled back a bit. I will be surprised if they lose on Sunday though.

Lions 33, Panthers 25

Tampa Bay at Green Bay: The team is a machine led by a robot...that is hard to beat.

Packers 27, Bucs 17

Dallas at Washington: Traditionally these are close games regardless of current circumstances and Dallas is still very capable of producing a clunker that makes everyone scratch their heads. Those two elements make this match-up mildly interesting, but on paper, this shouldn't be a game for more than a half. A strong Cowboys D should feast on the Redskins putrid offense and Romo and company should move the ball steadily, if not spectacularly, all day long.

Cowboys 31, Redskins 10

Buffalo at Miami: I am very, very iffy on this pick because it appears that Buffalo is officially turning back into a pumpkin, but I have a feeling they right the ship in Miami this week as the Dolphins realize they could be drifting farther and farther away from Andrew Luck.

Bills 19, Dolphins 16

Jacksonville at Cleveland: The Browns have had an incredibly easy schedule so far this year and yet, they have a 3-6 record to show for it. Jacksonville has only been slightly more impressive this year. Flip a coin and go with the home team.

Browns 20, Jaguars 17

Oakland at Minnesota: One of the harder calls on the board this week. Oakland looked fantastic in San Diego last Thursday night and Minnesota was completely out of their element in Green Bay. However, one plus one doesn't always equal two in the NFL and I see the Vikings snatching one away this week.

Vikings 26, Raiders 23

Cincinnati at Baltimore: I was surprised at how close the Bengals kept their game with the Steelers last week. I also wonder if that loss may have stung them a bit emotionally. Following up that game by going on the road to Baltimore against a Ravens team that just got humiliated in Seattle is a very rough spot for the Bengals to be in.

Ravens 28, Bengals 13

Seattle at St. Louis: In the pre-season this looked like it might be a fairly interesting/important game. It isn't.

Seahawks 18, Rams 17

Arizona at San Francisco: The 49ers are certainly at an all time high this week, which is why I think there might be some Vegas value in the Cards here. But in terms of who wins the game, I have a hard time seeing Arizona putting up many points.

49ers 17, Cardinals 13

San Diego at Chicago: Are the Chargers in a rut? Are they just bad? Confused? Unlucky? All of the above? I'd love to pick the upset here, but San Diego just looks lost and the Bears are rolling.

Bears 30, Chargers 24

Tennessee at Atlanta: Titans are just kind of drifting out there, hanging around the fringes of the AFC playoff picture, but ultimately I think they are simply an 8-8 type football team. I look for the Falcons to handle this one pretty easily.

Falcons 27, Titans 16

Philadelphia at New York Giants: I think last week was the officially nail in the Eagles coffin for 2011. Part of me thinks maybe they have a few more punches in them, but more likely, they are just toast from here on out.

Giants 27, Eagles 20

Kansas City at New England: This will get ugly fast.

Patriots 34, Chiefs 17

Lock of the Week:

Cardinals (+10) at 49ers

2. Cowboys (-8.5) at Redskins
3. Falcons (-6) vs. Titans
4. Ravens (-7) vs. Bengals