NFL Picks, Pats, and Pardons (Week 10)

Last Week: 7-7
Season: 86-43
Redskins: 5-3
Against the Spread: 18-17-1 (Last Week 2-2)
Lock of the Week: 4-5 (Last Week 1-0)

Last Week's Pats: Hovering right at .500 the past few weeks, so not a ton to brag about it, although I did correctly predict for the Jets to win outright in Buffalo and I had the Bears as my Lock of the Week (I thought the 9 points they were getting was the most slanted line of the NFL season thus far).

Last Week's Pardons: Apologies to pretty much anyone who won after the 1:00 games last week. I was on a roll early, and then starting with the 4:00 games, I only got one right (including the night games). Picking the Chargers to beat Green Bay was very cute....and very dumb.

This Week's Games:

Oakland at San Diego: I'm not sure what Norv Turner did in his past life, but he must be paying for something...over his career as a head coach his teams have found some of the most baffling ways to lose football games that anyone will ever see. I say his team bounces back this week, but nothing would surprise me.

Chargers 30, Raiders 23

Jacksonville at Indianapolis: I don't think the Colts are going to go 0-16, although they sure seem bound and determined to do so. Gun to my head, I pick the Jags, but this may be the last chance I get to pick Indy this year, so here goes...

Colts 22, Jaguars 20

Denver at Kansas City: Tim Tebow is a fascinating player to watch; if results didn't matter, he'd probably be on the trash heap by now. But results are pretty important, right?

Chiefs 26, Broncos 23

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati: I absolutely bow down to Marvin Lewis and his Bengals right now. They get an A+ for the first half of this season...only Green Bay gets that same mark. Having said that, I do think this is a tough spot for the Bengals young guns on offense.

Steelers 27, Bengals 15

Buffalo at Dallas: Somewhat predictably, the Bills came back down to earth last week. The question for them now is whether or not last week was the exception or if it was the first seven games that were the exception. I'm splitting the difference here.

Cowboys 28, Bills 23

New Orleans at Atlanta: HUGE game for the Falcons this week; it is very hard to see them winning the division if they drop this one. After a slow start, Atlanta has leveled out and looking much steadier, but I saw things in that those first handful of games that give me pause about them going forward. The line here is a Pick Em, which is spot on because I am very unsure, but I'll side with the Saints. When in doubt, pick the better team.

Saints 31, Falcons 28

St. Louis at Cleveland: Yikes

Browns 18, Rams 15

Washington at Miami: Yikes part 2

Dolphins 17, Redskins 13

Houston at Tampa Bay: Disappointing season for the Bucs thus far; Josh Freeman doesn't appear to be progressing much and their offense in general seems stagnant. Houston, on the other hand, has gotten healthy against some bad teams lately and they are running away with the NFC South. Much bigger game for Tampa, so that's my lean.

Bucs 23, Texans 20

Tennessee at Carolina: The Titans were a team that was hanging around for awhile, but last week showed me they are clearly not playoff contenders. I see their defense having major trouble with Cam Newton this week.

Panthers 30, Titans 24

Arizona at Philadelphia: Bears showed the world that the Eagles four game losing streak wasn't a total mirage. Lucky for Philly, their opponent this week will not be able to expose them further.

Eagles 33, Cardinals 19

Baltimore at Seattle: Coming off an extremely emotional victory and flying across country has me thinking this game stays close. If I had to pick my wild upset of the week, this would be it... but I'm not going there.

Ravens 20, Seahawks 16

New York Giants at San Francisco: Welcome to 1990. Possible NFC Championship preview? I'm not going that far as I believe that the Packers, Lions, and Saints will all have something to say about that, but this is certainly a great match up between two old rivals. Somewhere John Madden is smiling.

Giants 19, 49ers 17

Detroit at Chicago: If you look closely enough, you will see a darkhorse MVP candidate playing quarterback for the Bears. Jay Cutler has been exceptional this season and the Bears have looked very strong the past few weeks. Look for them to get a little revenge on Sunday.

Bears 24, Lions 20

New England at New York Jets: Normally, I'd pick the Patriots to win this game based solely on the principle that they are coming off a loss. But right now, the problems in New England are real...their defense simply isn't very good and the offense isn't as dynamic as it once was. Throw in the fact that the Jets are rolling and this is a bad spot for the Pats. But I'll pick them anyway :)

Patriots 22, Jets 19

Minnesota at Green Bay: The Vikings have had two weeks to prepare for the Packers aerial show. It won't matter.

Packers 34, Vikings 21

Lock of the Week

Steelers (-3) at Bengals

2. Giants (+3.5) at 49ers
3. Bucs (+3) vs. Texans
4. Seahawks (+7) vs. Ravens