NFL Picks, Pats, and Pardons (Week 6)

Last Week: 6-7
Season: 55-22
Redskins: 3-1
Against the Spread: 10-9-1 (Last Week 2-2)
Lock of the Week: 2-3 (Last Week 1-0)

Last Week's Pats: Slim pickens...got my lock of the week correct with the Lions covering the points against Chicago and I was only one point off in the final score prediction of Jets-Pats. 

Last Week's Pardons: Lots to go around. I should probably start with the 49ers, who are getting an apology from me for the second week in a row. But I can't stop there... Missed on Eagles-Bills and also wound up looking a bit silly taking the Falcons over the Pack.

This Week's Picks:

Carolina at Atlanta: Things just don't look right with the Falcons. I think they should be a tad concerned about Matt Ryan-- he just isn't progressing very much. And the defense can't seem to get it together for 60 minutes on any given week. I'll lean their way this week, but it wouldn't shock me one bit if the Panthers pulled off the upset here. 

Falcons 30, Panthers 24

San Francisco at Detroit: I would say the Lions are due for a letdown, but wouldn't the Niners fall into the same category? 

Lions 26, 49ers 17

Indianapolis at Cincinnati: Continue to be highly impressed with what Marvin Lewis is doing in Cincy; but their margin for error is very small, and ultimately I still see the Bengals as a 6-7 win team. Colts have to be reeling from blowing the lead against KC last week, but something tells me they pull an upset here. 

Colts 20, Bengals 17

Philadelphia at Washington: Borderline clueless here. I have no gut either way, and very little lean overall. Vegas has the game pegged perfectly as a virtual pick em. On paper the Eagles are the pick. Based on history, the Eagles are the pick. But based on what we have seen in 2011, the Redskins get the nod. No outcome would surprise me here, but I'm going to go with what I've seen this year over everything else.

Redskins 27, Eagles 22

St. Louis at Green Bay: The Rams would have had to have done some serious cleansing during the bye week in order to even make this competitive. I'm not sure there is a bar of soap in the world big enough to do the trick. 

Packers 35, Rams 16

Jacksonville at Pittsburgh: The Steelers have looked subpar in their two road games against quality opponents and they are fortunate to have gotten Seattle, Tennessee, and now Jacksonville at home to help offset those shaky outings. 

Steelers 30, Jaguars 16

Buffalo at New York Giants: no question about it, Seattle winning in New York last week was the biggest shock of the NFL season, but I'm predicting the Giants bounce back and take down a Bills team that has had everything go their way thus far.

Giants 29, Bills 21

Cleveland at Baltimore: Oakland's win in Houston was the biggest that franchise has had in years, especially once you factor in the emotions surrounding the passing of Al Davis. I think the emotions continue to flow positively for the Raiders this week.

Raiders 27, Browns 20

Houston at Baltimore: Unless you are a die-hard Redskins fan you may not appreciate this comparison, but I view the Texans as a more talented version of the Norv Turner-era Redskins. Houston is so uneven, so inconsistent, and they do so many things that leave you scratching your head, despite their talent and occasional weeks of brilliance. I've been on their bandwagon for years now, but I think I've seen enough. 

Ravens 23, Texans 19

New Orleans at Tampa Bay: I was very high on Josh Freeman and the Bucs heading into the year, but they've been unimpressive thus far and were flat out humiliated in San Francisco last week. I am going to stick with my pre-season gut one more week, but Tampa is iffy in my eyes right now.

Bucs 29, Saints 26

Dallas at New England: I have a funny feeling the Cowboys keep this thing close; real close. I think the spread is off on this game. 

Patriots 25, Cowboys 23

Minnesota at Chicago: Pure desperation game for both teams with the Packers and Lions both cruising right now. Vikings rolled up points last week without Donovan McNabb really doing anything. Hard to win like that week in and week out. 

Bears 24, Vikings 17

Miami at New York Jets: Question: what do you need if your team has lost three in a row and the pressure and tension is mounting? Answer: The Dolphins. 

Jets 31, Dolphins 14

Lock of the Week:

Colts (+8) at Bengals

2. Cowboys (+7) at Patriots
3. Packers (-14.5) vs. Rams
4. Bucs (+4.5) vs. Saints