NFL Picks, Pats, and Pardons (Week 5)

Last Week: 13-3
Season: 49-15
Redskins: 3-1
Against the Spread: 8-7-1 (Last Week 1-3)
Lock of the Week: 1-3 (Last Week 0-1)

Last Week's Pats: I've been patting myself on the back all week for my Bengals over Bills pick; I mean really strutting my stuff. Hitting a pick like that can really make a guy cocky...And overall, a 13-win week keeps me pretty scorching to start this season.

Last Week's Pardons: 1-3 ATS for the second week in a row. I was feeling great about the Falcons being my lock when they were up big in Seattle, but then they blew it... By far my biggest miss was the 49ers-Eagles game, and I believe I owe an apology to San Francisco...not only did I think Philly would win, I thought it would be easy.

This Week's Picks:

New Orleans at Carolina: Excellent response from the Saints following their tough opening night loss in Green Bay. Brees and company have been just gouging their opponents all year. But that defense remains iffy, and Cam Newton and the Panthers continue to impress, despite the fact that they can't close games. Very tempeted to pick an upset here, but instead, I'll say it's a close call for New Orleans.

Saints 27, Panthers 25

Philadelphia at Buffalo: No game in recent history has tested my "never bet the due" mantra more than this game. Maybe the Eagles aren't who we thought they were, but they are better than 1-3, right? Maybe the Bills aren't who we thought they were, but they aren't as good as 3-1, right? My confidence in the Eagles is waning fast, but I'll stick with my gut that they are going to turn it around at least a little bit sooner rather than later.

Eagles 26, Bills 21

Seattle at New York Giants: Giants have navigated a tough opening schedule to find themselves atop the NFC East with the Redskins. Their reward is as easy a three game homestand as you will ever see in the NFL, starting Sunday with the Seahawks. New York better cash in because their final 9 games are beyond brutal.

Giants 31, Seahawks 13

Cincinnati at Jacksonville: You know what, I may be one of the few, but I like Marvin Lewis. I think he's done about as well as can be resonably expected with what he has been dealt in Cincy over the years. And rather than fall into the fetal position with this rebuilding roster, he has the Benglas playing tough football week in and week out. I don't think they can keep up their current .500 pace, but I think Cincy fans should be encouraged. Having said that, Blaine Gabbert gets win #1 of his career on Sunday.

Jaguars 19, Bengals 16

Kansas City at Indianpolis: Colts have fought very hard the past two weeks, and I see no reason to think they won't keep fighting. Kansas City got a bit of relief by beating the lousy Vikings last week, and I wonder if they may fall back into some bad habits. Coin toss game, and really, a pretty irrelevant game.

Colts 24, Chiefs 21

Tennessee at Pittsburgh: Good start for the Titans, but they are in a terrible spot this weekend in Pittsburgh. I'm not sold that all is going to be fine and dandy in the Steel City, but I do think this is a spot for them to get a bit of momentum.

Steelers 23, Titans 13

Arizona at Minnesota: On paper, the Cards are the better team...but at the same time, I don't think the Vikings are going 0-16, so this would seem like an opportunity to capture one of what may be very few wins this year.

Vikings 25, Cardinals 22

Oakland at Houston: Al Davis was a visionary and pioneer. He had a major hand in building this league that so many love. He had some flaws to be sure and I do think things got out of hand in Oakland over the past several years, but overall, his tenure there was wildly successful.. in large part because he transcended his team and left a lasting impression on the sport itself. I think the Raiders will play hard for him on Sunday, but come up short. The first home game back in Oakland will be emotional though.

Texans 27, Raiders 23

Tampa Bay at San Francisco: Jim Harbaugh is already making a positive impression. I still have my doubts about their talent, but if they win this one, I may become a believer.

Bucs 20, 49ers 17

New York Jets at New England: You have to figure the Patriots have been waiting for this game since the Jets wiped them off the field last January. There are some major issues in New York right now and I'm not sure this is a good spot to get them figured out.

Patriots 31, Jets 23

San Diego at Denver: Not sure what to think of San Diego other than what I always think of them....a good team, not a serious threat come crunch time. They are 3-1, but lost to the one decent team they played this year. They are not playing a decent team on Sunday. Phillip Rivers should have a big day.

Chargers 34, Broncos 26

Green Bay at Atlanta: Really not liking what I'm seeing from the Falcons thus far. The offense is uneven and the defense looks shaky at best. This is a huge game for Atlanta both from a standings perspective and an emotional/revenge perspective. Based on those factors, I'll side with them to eek one out, but my faith here is not strong.

Falcons 29, Packers 27

Chicago at Detroit: While not for as important of a reason, I have a feeling the atmosphere in Detroit on Monday Night will be similar to what we saw in New Orleans for this first game back in the Superdome after Katrina. This is the first time the Lions have been in this spot in eons, their team is off to a fabulous start, and they are playing a divison rival. The fans will be jazzed, and the team will feed off of them. I think this could turn into a mauling.

Lions 28, Bears 16

Lock of the Week:

Lions (-5) vs. Bears

2. Panthers (+6.5) vs. Saints
3. Falcons (+5.5) vs. Packers
4. Jaguars (Pick Em) vs. Bengals