NFL Picks, Pats, and Pardons (Week 3)

Last Week: 15-1
Season: 26-6
Redskins: 1-1
Against the Spread: 6-1-1
Lock of the Week: 1-1

Last Week's Pats: Sizzling to say the least...if you go 15-1 and hit three out of four against the spread (including your lock) you can pat yourself on the back for a week straight, which is precisely what I've been doing. Not only did I lock down most of the winners, I was also very close on point totals, spreads, etc.. Clearly, I was in the zone.

Last Week's Pardons: I was pretty far off on the Ravens-Titans game, but again, at 15-1, I refuse to extend a pardon to anyone.

This Week's Picks

Jacksonville at Carolina: NOW Cam Newton has my attention...what an absolutely sensational start to his career. Even though the Panthers are 0-2, spirits must be high throughout the organization. While I could see becoming a more plodding affair than Carolina's first two games, I do think Cam notches career win number one.

Panthers 23, Jaguars 19

Denver at Tennessee: During the Bengals-Broncos game last week I commented that Denver better hold on to win because I'm not sure they'd have many more opportunities to do so this year. Broncos are not a good football team.

Titans 22, Broncos 14

Houston at New Orleans: It is going to take a colossal effort for the Texans NOT to win the AFC South this year. They are clearly the most talented team and the three teams chasing them are all flawed beyond measure. But if Houston wants people to start taking them really seriously, they are going to need to shake their "soft" label. You do that by beating good teams on the road. I'm thinking the Texans breakthrough this week.

Texans 29, Saints 26

Detroit at Minnesota: If you gave me the task of listing every team in the NFL 1-32 based on how fun it is going to be to root for a team over the next 2-3 years, there is a good chance I'd put the Lions at #1 and the Vikings at #32. I have no idea what Minnesota is doing.

Lions 31, Vikings 23

New York Giants at Philadelphia: Eagles clearly looked like the better team in Atlanta last Sunday night, which is why I might be troubled as an Eagles fan by the loss. There is a pretty hefty investment in the secondary that got torched there. But that is probably more cause for concern down the road. Right now, Philly is just too fast and too athletic for the Giants.

Eagles 27, Giants 19

New England at Buffalo: The Bills might be able to keep pace with New England for awhile, but how are they going to get stops?

Patriots 35, Bills 26

Miami at Cleveland: Pretty brutal game on paper here. Cleveland bounced back from their week one debacle, but weren't exactly stellar in doing so. Miami is just lost.

Browns 20, Dolphins 15

San Francisco at Cincinnati: I am very impressed with Andy Dalton thus far. Cincinnati as a whole is playing with some energy and spunk...it probably won't last as the season drags and the talent catches up to them, but for now, I think the Bengals are an undervalued team.

Bengals 24, 49ers 21

New York Jets at Oakland: I waffled quite a bit on this one because Oakland is improved and the Jets are good for a dud or two every season. But I don't think Jason Campbell will be effective enough against that Jets secondary. I see the Jets sneaking away with an ugly one.

Jets 19, Raiders 16

Baltimore at St. Louis: It's a bit early to start projecting season awards, but St. Louis is the leader in the clubhouse right now for most disappointing team. The Rams looked terrible on both sides of the ball, and I'm not sure it's going to get much better in the coming weeks.

Ravens 26, Rams 13

Kansas City at San Diego: Not even quite sure how you set a spread for this game after what the Chiefs have done the first two weeks. Getting outscored 89-10 in the NFL is absolutely absurd, and that division title from last year, might as well have been fifty years ago. Perhaps Todd Haley can hang his hat on that playoff appearance, but if he doesn't do something quick, his seat is going to heat up in a hurry.

Chargers 34, Chiefs 17

Atlanta at Tampa Bay: No game calls for an even spread more so than this one. Throught two weeks, I am downright unimpressed with the Falcons. And while Matt Ryan played very well in a big spot last week, given the choice, I'd start my team with Josh Freeman over Ryan.

Bucs 27, Falcons 25

Green Bay at Chicago: My original lean here was towards the Bears...at some point that title defense is going to get difficult for the Packers and it makes some sense that one bump in the road would come ON the road against their rivals. But I just can't pull the trigger..Green Bay is just better.

Packers 24, Bears 22

Arizona at Seattle: Blech. That was no joke last week...Seattle really is THAT bad. They aren't 0-16 bad, so somewhere along the line they are going to pick up a couple wins, but I wouldn't bank on it this week...don't be surprised if the Cardinals have this division wrapped up sometime in mid December.

Cardinals 21, Seahawks 16

Pittsburgh at Indianapolis: This is my little cute pick of the week...not that Indy will win, but that they make a game of it. Just a gut feeling.

Steelers 27, Colts 22

Washington at Dallas: A tricky one. Ultimately, I am unable to separate myself the fan, from myself the prognosticator. I think that on paper, this is a spot where I'd really favor the Redskins to come in and pull off the upset. But the fan in me realizes that the Redskins have dropped 16 of the last 19 games in Big D and that it's been a virtual house of horrors for Washington for two decades now. I expect Washington to play fairly well, but Dallas pulls it out.

Cowboys 24, Redskins 20

Lock of the Week

Texans (+4) at Saints

2. Browns (-1.5) vs. Dolphins
3. Colts (+11) vs. Steelers
4. Bengals (-1.5) vs. 49ers