NFL Picks, Pats, and Pardons (Week One)

I slacked last year. I dragged. I was a disappointment. Picks, Pats, and Pardons devolved into a simple picks column which was often completed in a rush with little though or creativity invested. It was boring. I didn't even bother making post season picks or comments. My decision this year was either to scrap it altogether or do it right. By virtue of the fact that you are reading this right now, it's pretty clear which option I chose.

2010 was a down and uninspired year for this blog. I hope to do better in 2011.

A brief history before we move on to the week one selections:

2010

Season: 151-105
Post Season: No Picks
Redskins: 8-8
Against the Spread: 34-26
Lock of the Week: 9-6

2009

Season: 168-88
Post Season: 6-5
Redskins: 13-3
Against the Spread: 32-36
Lock of the Week: 5-12


2008

Regular Season: 167-88-1
Post Season 5-6
Record Picking Redskins Games: 7-9
Against the Spread: 33-32-2
Lock of the Week: 10-6-1

2007

Regular Season: 166-90
Post Season: 4-7
Record Picking Redskins Games (including playoffs): 10-7
Against The Spread: 29-33-2
Lock of the Week: 10-6

2006

Regular Season: 146-110
Post Season: 8-3
Record Picking Redskins Games: 8-8


2005

Regular Season: 163-91
Post Season: 6-5
Record Picking Redskins Games (including playoffs): 14-4

Last year was a lousy one for me straight up, but quite successful against the spread. Eight games over .500 for the year will win you some money for sure... 2009 remains my benchmark season when I averaged almost ten picks correct per week...my goal this year is 170, which would put me in a category all by myself...because I created the category.

It's week one, so no Pats or Pardons yet....just Picks:

New Orleans at Green Bay: Since the NFL started the tradition of having the Super Bowl champion host the opening Thursday Night game, the home team has yet to lose; and in most cases it has been a decisive victory. The emotions of the night seem to really stack the odds against the road team. I see the pattern holding this year, although I think the Saints hold their own.

Packers 31, Saints 27

Atlanta at Chicago: Week one is always an easy week for me to make picks. I simply stay true to my overall season predictions. I have the Falcons finishing at 12-4 and the Bears at 8-8; I see no need to get cute on this one.

Falcons 27, Bears 17

Indianapolis at Houston: I'm not a big fan of how the NFL has fallen into some scheduling patterns lately. I don't like the idea of having the same opening game in the same city two years in a row. It's boring and even teeters a bit on what is fair. That said, this is one of the easiest picks on the week. I had the Texans pegged here even with a 100% healthy Peyton Manning. Without him, it gets ugly.

Texans 34, Colts 13

Buffalo at Kansas City: Every year there is one team I just don't like. This year, Kansas City bears that badge of honor. The Chiefs pre-season was a borderline disaster and they won't be sneaking up on anyone this year either. Chiefs fans can mock me all they want, but I'm not sold on their team or their QB. This is my upset of the week.

Bills 20, Chiefs 17

Tennessee at Jacksonville: Not much about either of these teams I find particularly interesting in 2011 unless they both decided to give their rookie QB's some starts. Both the Titans and Jags are playing it safe, keeping their rookies on the bench in favor or Matt Hasslebeck and Luke McCown respectively. The Jags continue to be one of the only teams in the league that struggles to get fans in the seats....this week, I can't say I blame them.

Titans 19, Jags 16

Cincinnati at Cleveland: I said in my pre-season predictions that the Browns could get off to a hot start this year behind a weak opening schedule. It doesn't get any easier than playing the Bengals...at home....starting a rookie QB. This is literally the easiest game any team in the NFL will get all year. If Cleveland doesn't pounce this week, it's going to be a long year in Cleveland.

Browns 26, Bengals 10

Philadelphia at St. Louis: Gotta like the direction the Rams are heading, but I'm still a bit flabbergasted as to why WR wasn't a bigger priority for them in the off-season. Sam Bradford has the goods for sure, but he can't throw it to himself. Not having people open leads to the QB holding the ball longer which increases the chance for injury, etc. Philly is going to have an attacking defense this year and their stellar CB's should have no trouble blanketing the Rams WR's. Could be a long opening week for Sammy.

Eagles 28, Rams 16

Pittsburgh at Baltimore: Nothing better than starting the season with a bloodbath. It hurts to WATCH these two teams play. This is throwback rivalry that Mike Curtis and Jack Lambert would be proud to participate in. I gave the a slight edge to Baltimore in my season picks, so I'll lean that way this week as well.

Ravens 17, Steelers 16

Detroit at Tampa Bay: Two years ago, this match-up was a national joke. Now, I think we'll be seeing our two NFC wild card teams going at it on what promises to be a sweltering day in Florida. Toss a coin here, but I think the Lions have a slightly more dynamic attack and I see them winning a thriller late.

Lions 24, Bucs 20

Minnesota at San Diego: There are a handful of worse teams in the NFL, but I find no team more unispiring this year than the Vikings. San Diego feasts.

Chargers 35, Vikings 17

New York Giants at Washington: No game gave me more problems this week. Perhaps my inherent homerism blinds me to certain things, but I see this as a very tough call. No doubt the Giants are more talented-- at least in some very critical areas. But the Redskins have improved, they are at home, and the Giants are dealing with an almost absurd amount of injuries on defense that could take them several weeks to figure out. Washington catches the Giants at a good time, but are the Redskins good enough to take advantage? The Redskins haven't beaten the Giants since December of 2007 and a big part of that is because they haven't been able to stop Eli Manning. This game is coin flip that I wouldn't touch in Vegas with a ten foot pole. With that being the case, I'll side with the more proven squad.

Giants 23, Redskins 20

Carolina at Arizona: Ken Whisenhunt couldn't ask for much more than to be at home week one against a team with a rookie coach and rookie QB-- oh, and said team also happened to have the worst record in the league last year. This is a good spot for Kevin Kolb to get his feet wet in desert (is that an oxymoron?).

Cardinals 24, Panthers 14

Seattle at San Francisco: The 49ers, Seahawks, and Cardinals better win the games they play against one another because I think other wins on the schedule will be hard to come by. I like Jim Harbaugh to win his NFL coaching debut.

49ers 22, Seahawks 13

Dallas at New York Jets: I see some trendy picks leaning Dallas this week...and I could see that. I'm just not sure what to expect from the Cowboys and I could absolutely see the Jets taking a step back. I do wonder if the bravado coming from New York is going to wear thin sometime soon. So I'm pretty mixed up on this game, but I'll lean on the home team partly behind the emotions of the 9/11 ceremonies.

Jets 21, Cowboys 17

New England at Miami: The NFL should have done better with their opening Monday double-header... this game will be over by halftime.

Patriots 37, Dolphins 14

Oakland at Denver: This game won't be over at halftime, but will anyone be awake?

Broncos 27, Raiders 24

Against the Spread

Lock of the Week

Browns (-6.5) vs. Bengals

2. Eagles (-4) at Rams
3. Bills (+6) at Chiefs
4. Patriots (-7) at Dolphins