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Sunday, December 28, 2008

NFL Week Seventeen Picks, Pats, and Apologies

Last Week: 7-9
Season: 156-83-1
Record Picking Redskins Games: 7-8
Against the Spread: 32-29-2
Lock of the Week: 10-5-1

Last week I was too unmotivated following the Redskins collapse in Cincinnati to produce a decent entry. This week, I almost flat-out forget and only have a few hours before the games kickoff. So this will yet again be a lame attempt this week. Had my worst week of the season last week, although I continue my roll on my Lock of the Week. Looking to end the regular season on a strong note. I will return in full form for the playoffs next week.

This Week's Picks:

Falcons 34, Rams 14
Patriots 22, Bills 17
Bengals 24, Chiefs 23
Packers 27, Lions 17
Bears 20, Texans 17
Colts 19, Titans 16
Vikings 24, Giants 17
Panthers 28, Saints 24
Steelers 20, Browns 10
Bucs 23, Raiders 10
Ravens 21, Jaguars 6
Jets 27, Dolphins 24
Cowboys 30, Eagles 23
Cardinals 29, Seahawks 20
Redskins 23, 49ers 20
Chargers 31, Broncos 26

Lock of the Week

Broncos (+9) at Chargers

2. Cowboys (even) at Eagles
3. Ravens (-11.5) vs. Jaguars
4. Bears (-1) at Texans

Thursday, December 18, 2008

NFL Week Sixteen Picks, Pats, and Apologies

Last Week: 11-5
Season: 149-74-1
Record Picking Redskins Games: 7-7
Against the Spread: 30-27-2
Lock of the Week: 9-5-1


Don’t have the time or energy to put forth a worthy version this week, so I’m just going to come out with my picks for the sake of keeping the records accurate. The Redskins have zapped my motivation to analyze the games this week. I am on a pretty good roll against the spread lately though.

This Week’s Picks:

Colts 30, Jaguars 17
Cowboys 22, Ravens 13
Browns 20, Bengals 17
Saints 35, Lions 21
Dolphins 26, Chiefs 21
Patriots 27, Cardinals 20
49ers 24, Rams 17
Steelers 19, Titans 16
Bucs 17, Chargers 16
Broncos 28, Bills 16
Texans 23, Raiders 13
Seahawks 24, Jets 21
Vikings 25, Falcons 22
Eagles 27, Redskins 17
Panthers 24, Giants 20
Bears 24, Packers 19

Lock of the Week

Seahawks (+4.5) vs. Jets


2. Saints (-7.5) at Lions
3. Cowboys (-5) vs. Ravens
4. Cardinals (+9) at Patriots

Monday, December 15, 2008

Last Chance For Snyder?

Somewhere around 1990, I discovered that local sports bars had the ability to pick up out of market NFL games via satellite—I was 13 years old. It took a little convincing to get my parents to start lugging me to these places to watch my Redskins each Sunday they weren’t on local TV, but being the wonderful parents they are, they complied. They continued this compliance until I was finally able to purchase NFL Sunday Ticket in my own home in 1999.

So, for the past 18 years or so, I have rarely missed a Redskins game. In fact, I’d guess the total number of games I have not watched live over that span is less than 10. I certainly haven’t missed a “big” game or playoff game over that span—although, that hasn’t been a difficult task. I can also probably count those games on two hands as well.

But I don’t think I’ll be watching this Sunday. Yes, I’ve said that in advance of games before out of anger over the latest disappointment and yes, I’ve found myself plopped on the couch come game time, but I say it this week not out of anger or frustration, but out of apathy. I just don’t care.

Many of my fellow fans are furious right now with the Redskins collapse this season. At 4-1, we looked like world-beaters. At 6-2, we looked primed to make a serious playoff push. Even at 7-4, we looked to be at least headed in the right direction. But now, sitting at 7-7, following three incredibly disheartening and uninspired losses, the Redskins look lifeless. First year head coach Jim Zorn has gone from a fresh, cocksure, upstart coach to a disheveled, confused mess. After the Redskins latest debacle in Cincinnati, Zorn looked as if he had been in a tornado; his hair muffled, and his face tattered and wrinkled. He looked lost. Welcome to the Washington Redskins coach; we knew you’d fall in line sooner or later!

In response to this disaster, many fans are staging revolts, trying to organize protests and walkouts. One local radio station is even promoting a “Give Your Tickets to an Eagles Fan” protest this week. It’s all cute and nice, and if it makes people feel better to express their dejection in those ways, then I have no qualms with it. However, I hope they realize that it will all be in vein. It will accomplish nothing. Many fans believe that “hitting the organization in the wallet” will finally force them to make changes. But that doesn't apply here.

In places like Cincinnati and Detroit, where ownership has been notoriously tight with their cash, fans have been staging these types of protests for years to no avail.

But hoarding the fans money is not the problem with the Redskins. Owner Daniel Snyder spares no expense when it comes to his roster and coaching staff. No signing bonus is too high, no price is too steep. And as much as fans complain about getting “fleeced” by the prices at FedEx Field, the bottom line attending a Redskins game really doesn’t differ greatly from that of other NFL teams.

And effort isn’t an issue within the Redskins organization either. I believe that no fan wants the Redskins to succeed more than Snyder. I do not believe that he sits in the owner’s box counting his pennies and giggling wildly as the Redskins lose another game.

And I do not believe that Snyder longs for the spotlight. I follow the Redskins via television and the Internet on a daily basis year-round, and I can’t remember the last time I saw an actual interview with Snyder. He doesn’t stand on the sidelines and he has actually made requests to the networks to not show him on TV during the games. He seems uneasy in front of the camera. And in the one recent instance where he was forced to be a public face of the organization—in the aftermath of Sean Taylor’s death—he handled himself quite well and represented the organization with class and dignity. He spared no expense in making sure Taylor’s family and his memory will be forever remembered by the organization.

Dan Snyder cares. Maybe too much.

I think he learned during his first four years of ownership that the organization desperately needed a leader and desperately needed to reconnect with the fans. He needed someone to right the ship for him. Miraculously, he brought back Joe Gibbs. And while Gibbs never reached the pinnacle in his second stint with the Redskins, Snyder clearly took a step back and let Gibbs run the show. For four years, Gibbs was the face of the franchise, leaving his mark on all aspects of the organization. And for the most part, the fans were content. Not thrilled with the results, but happy that the team seemed to have some direction, some on field success, and most importantly, some pride. During those four years, the Redskins gradually got better during the season, and made two exciting runs into the post-season; the second of which was so emotionally fueled by the Taylor tragedy.

But as so often happens following a tragedy, a family disintegrated. Gibbs was burned out, and abruptly retired four years in to his five-year plan. I firmly believe Snyder was caught off guard by this decision and did everything in his power to get Gibbs to stay on board for one more season to see if he could finish what he started. But Gibbs didn’t have it in him. And Snyder was left on island again. Suddenly, the face of the franchise was gone. It was again in Snyder’s hands.

As a fan, I actually liked and respected the decision to go with Zorn over more qualified candidates. I liked the outside-the-box thinking. I liked the gamble. But in typical Redskins fashion, the way they did it was a muddled mess. It took forever, there seemed to be deception, confusion, and even rumors of secret meetings. Everyone was in the dark. The players expressed frustration and anxiety over the process, and the fans were up in arms over the indecision. Then, suddenly Jim Zorn was the coach- the guy they hired a month earlier to be the offensive coordinator. It was an odd process to say the least. And odd processes don’t endear themselves to employees (players) or customers (fans).

There was a “rudderless” feeling to the Redskins entering the season and it came to a crescendo after an opening night drubbing by the Giants. Then, the Redskins went on their impressive four game winning streak, and it appeared as if Snyder had perhaps finally made a shrewd move. But the vultures weren’t far away. Two months later, the organization appears to be in chaos—perhaps as much chaos as there was in 2002 before Gibbs came back. It appears as if all of the positive things Gibbs did for the Redskins have been for naught.

I’m not worried about intentions, I believe Snyder’s intentions are good. I’m worried about results. And the results seem to indicate that when he is at the forefront of the decision-making, things don’t go very well.

So, where to go from here?

Personally, I like Zorn and I hope he survives what will most likely be a tumult in the coming weeks. I think Zorn is intelligent and forthright, and I believe he can improve his weaknesses and grow into a quality head coach.

But more than anything, I believe the Redskins need a strong, singular voice to make all football related decisions for the long-term. This is really only General Manager Vinny Cerrato’s first year making football decisions for the Redskins and while I think he is made out to be a scapegoat by many fans, his strong personal ties to Snyder paint him to be a cronie-type figure. He is not particularly well respected among his peers and is more or less hated by local media. Right or wrong, this perception filters throughout the organization and leads to much of the dissatisfaction with the way things run around Redskins Park.

Snyder must find an organizational leader. He found one with Gibbs, and in many ways, Gibbs did accomplish the basic goal of making the Redskins respectable again. But in his next search, Snyder must find someone who plans to stick around for longer than four years. He needs to find someone who has a defined plan and isn’t afraid to make the team significantly worse before it gets better.

Unfortunately for Zorn, this new leader may want to hire his own coach, who will then implement his own staff. The roster will then be built around their philosophies and strengths. And Snyder needs to take a backseat during this process. He did it for Gibbs, but would he be willing to do it for someone less legendary?

I have been a rarity amongst Redskins fans. I have supported and defended Snyder. And I still truly believe that much of what is said and written about him is blatantly false. However, Snyder’s next move could potentially be the straw that breaks the camels back for me.

If Snyder lets Cerrato go, hires a qualified person to make football related decisions, and that person chooses to fire Zorn after one season, I will accept that. I will feel bad for Zorn and say he was simply in the wrong place at the wrong time and wish him the best down the road.

But if Snyder retains Cerrato in his current role and decides to fire Zorn, I will officially join the ranks of the anti-Snyder faction. While my hope is dwindling, it is not lost—but that decision could result in hopelessness that we will never succeed under Snyder. I don’t care if Snyder hires Bill Cohwer or reincarnates Vince Lombardi—if he does so without relinquishing total control to someone who can run football operations, I will consider it a bad move.

Snyder’s third choice would be to maintain the status quo. Retain Cerrato and Zorn and continue on their current path. To me, this is also an unacceptable option. The time has come for someone to step in and truly run the Redskins. Someone that is accountable and someone that we know is calling the shots. Someone that understands how to build a team and someone that can help guide some of Snyder’s energy and money into acquiring the right pieces of the puzzle.

I won’t be burning t-shirts or ripping up tickets in disgust this week. I won’t be making derogatory signs or wearing a bag over me head. I won’t be telling my friends and family to return any Redskins items they purchased for me this holiday season. I’ll just be absent. I’ll be absent both in mind and body when the Redskins take the field on Sunday. There is nothing to see here. Nothing they can “show me” over the final two games that matters. Nothing to get excited about.

The man to turn around the Redskins is out there…..somewhere. Does Dan Snyder have the stones to find him and hand him the reins?

If he doesn’t, there may not be too many 13 year old Redskins fans begging their parents to take them to sports bars anymore.

Wednesday, December 10, 2008

NFL Week Fifteen Picks, Pats, and Apologies

Last Week: 11-5
Season: 138-69-1
Record Picking Redskins Games: 7-6
Against the Spread: 27-26-2
Lock of the Week: 8-5-1

Last Week's Pats: On a roll with my lock of the week....Eagles covered easily to give me my fourth straight victory in that department. I was also very close on the final scores of the Falcons-Saints and Patriots-Seahawks games.

Last Week's Apologies: Nothing outlandish, but I did miss on the big NFC South Monday Nighter. I said the Bucs were going to win because they were the better team, period. While I still think the Bucs may wind up winning the division, the Panthers certainly proved that they are a physical force by pushing the tough Tampa defense all over the field in the second half of that game.

This Week's Picks:

New Orleans at Chicago: Pretty torn on this one, not quite sure what to think of either of these 7-6 teams at this point. The Saints haven't fared too well in the Windy City over the past two seasons, including their loss in the 2006 NFC Championship Game. I'll play a small hunch here and say that the Saints eek one out.

Saints 27, Bears 26

Tampa Bay at Atlanta: Looks to me like the Falcons will be catching the Bucs at a bad time. The Tampa defense was pretty much embarrassed on Monday Night in Carolina, and I see them bouncing back and frustrating Matt Ryan.

Bucs 23, Falcons 17

Washington at Cincinnati: The Redskins were going to enter this game looking like a train wreck before Clinton Portis mocked Jim Zorn on the radio. After his comments, I'm not sure what to expect from this struggling team. In addition to their offensive woes, they are now dealing with serious injuries along the offensive line. I'll give the Redskins defense the nod to pull out a win, but this could be a very, very ugly game.

Redskins 16, Bengals 13

Tennessee at Houston: The Texans just couldn't survive that 0-4 start. Since that awful opening stretch, they've gone 6-3, and Matt Schaub lit up the Packers defense in frigid Green Bay last week. Despite that victory, the Texans have been eliminated from playoff contention-- but they still have a shot at their first winning record in franchise history. Look for the upset in Houston this week.

Texans 17, Titans 15

Detroit at Indianapolis: I am in my fantasy football playoffs this weekend. I have Joesph Addai, Dallas Clark, and the Colts defense on my roster. You'd think I'd be jumping for joy having those three matching up with the lowly Lions, but I'm deathly afraid the game will be over midway through the first quarter and everyone will stop trying or get pulled. Should be a romp.

Colts 34, Lions 10

Green Bay at Jacksonville: A once attractive-looking match-up is now a total dud. One of the few games this week that has ZERO playoff implications.

Packers 24, Jaguars 20

San Diego at Kansas City: The Chiefs aren't a good team, but they sure try hard. I expect anything close loss for Kansas City as the Chargers may still cling to some faint playoff hopes.

Chargers 27, Chiefs 20

San Francisco at Miami: The 49ers are playing really well right now, but this game is of paramount importance to the Dolphins and I don't see them letting it get away. Expect a good effort from San Francisco and a close win for the surging Dolphins.

Dolphins 20, 49ers 17

Buffalo at New York Jets: The Bills are the AFC version of the Redskins, and they may be just what the doctor ordered for the stumbling Jets.

Jets 23, Bills 13

Seattle at St. Louis: A cure for insomnia.

Seahawks 28, Rams 16

Minnesota at Arizona: Hard to make a totally accurate prediction given the uncertain status of the Vikings quarterback situation, but I like the Cardinals to win a shootout regardless of who starts for Minnesota.

Cardinals 31, Vikings 27

Pittsburgh at Baltimore: Possibly the game of the week and it could play a major role in determing the playoff picture in the AFC. Both defenses are absolutely rock solid, and while I'd give the overall edge in that department to the Steelers, it's too close to give either squad a clear upper hand. Instead, I'll look at the offenses. The Steelers pass protection problems are a major concern facing the swarming Ravens, but when it comes down to it, I'll take Big Ben's game experience over Joe Flacco at this point. Close call, but I'm going with the experienced Steelers.

Steelers 19, Ravens 16

Denver at Carolina: The Broncos look a bit schizo thesedays-- not exactly sure what to expect from them week to week. I also wonder how motivated they could be for this game considering they are already virtually locked in to their playoff spot. Carolina was extremely impressive on Monday Night, and I'd expect them to control the line of scrimmage in this game as well.

Panthers 26, Broncos 21

New England at Oakland: This game is simply too important to the Patriots-- I don't see them blowing it.

Patriots 24, Raiders 9

New York Giants at Dallas: Even with their loss last week, the Giants still have a little bit of wiggle room in their quest for homefield advantage throughout the playoffs. Considering they play the Panthers next week, this game isn't overly crucial to the Giants hopes. Having said that, I don't think they want to stumble down the stretch and give any life to a potentially dangerous Dallas team. The Giants are the better team here, but the Cowboys have a slight edge in both motivation and homefield. I think Dallas pulls it out.

Cowboys 24, Giants 21

Cleveland at Philadelphia: All of a sudden, the Eagles are primed to make a run at the wild card. I wouldn't expect much of a roadblock from Ken Dorsey and the Browns, who are already making vacation plans.

Eagles 30, Browns 17

4 To Score

Lock of the Week

Patriots (-7.5) at Raiders. Too important of a game for the Pats to mess around.

2. Bengals (+6.5) vs. Redskins. Hard to imagine the Redskins beating the Cincinnati Bearcats by more the a field goal, much less the Bengals. Although, maybe the Bearcats are better?
3. Bucs (+2.5) at Falcons. Look for Tampa to bounce back.
4. Texans (+3) vs. Titans. Looking for the Texans to finish strong.

Wednesday, December 03, 2008

NFL Week Fourteen Picks, Pats, and Apologies

Last Week: 10-6
Season: 127-64-1
Record Picking Redskins Games: 6-6
Against the Spread: 25-24-2
Lock of the Week: 7-5-1

Last Week's Pats: Nailed my Lock of the Week for the third week in a row, correctly predicting Denver to cover the 9 points in New York. I also called the "upset" in the battle of bottom feeders in Oakland. I will also give myself a gentle pat on the back for calling an ugly win for the Colts in Cleveland.

Last Week's Apologies: Sometimes I pick upset to be cute or make a splash. But last week, I REALLY thought the Redskins were going to knock off the Giants. For some ridiculous reason, I was extremely confident in that pick. Not only did the Redskins not knock of the Giants, but they failed to cover the spread and were generally dominated from the opening kickoff. Apologies to Big Blue, who look borderline unbeatable at this point.

This Week's Picks:

Oakland at San Diego: The 2008 Chargers may go down as one of the more disappointing teams in recent NFL history. Even worse news for Chargers fans is that it sounds as if Norv Turner's job is secure. I see them getting a win by default this week, but it won't even begin to erase the memories from this horrible season in San Diego.

Chargers 27, Raiders 12

Jacksonville at Chicago: Just in case we needed any more evidence that the Jaguars quit in their game against the Vikings two weeks ago, they made sure to send the message loud and clear again last week in Houston.

Bears 26, Jaguars 14

Minnesota at Detroit: I've been saying all season that the Lions will NOT go 0-16. I've changed my mind.

Vikings 28, Lions 17

Houston at Green Bay: After throttling the Bears three weeks ago, the Packers looked primed to make a playoff run. But they've followed up that impressive performance with two clunkers against the Saints and Panthers. I'll give them a win this week, but I am officially off the Green Bay bandwagon.

Packers 29, Texans 23

Cincinnati at Indianapolis: Cleveland last week, Cincinnati this week, Detroit next week. Life is good in Indy.

Colts 35, Bengals 13

Atlanta at New Orleans: The Falcons have toasted me all season long. It's not that I don't respect what they've done-- I simply keep expecting them to come back to earth at least a little bit. I'm going to stick with my gut one more week, but if Atlanta pulls this one out, then I may be forced to start considering them serious contenders in the NFC.

Saints 27, Falcons 24

Philadelphia at New York Giants: I could really see an upset here because I think at some point the Giants are bound to relax a bit, and I like the way the Eagles responded against Arizona last week. Having said that, the Giants have earned too much of my respect to pick against them at this point.

Giants 24, Eagles 20

Cleveland at Tennessee: Ken Dorsey may be in for a long, long day.

Titans 25, Browns 12

Miami at Buffalo: I guess "at Buffalo" isn't very accurate. I'm not sure how playing the game in Toronto will affect either team, but I'm playing a hunch here that the Bills return the loss that the Dolphins handed them down in Miami earlier this year.

Bills 17, Dolphins 15

Kansas City at Denver: Two weeks ago the Broncos had arguably the worst loss of the NFL season thus far when they lost at home to Oakland by three touchdowns. However, Denver bounced back last week and snagged one of the more impressive victories of the season by crushing the Jets in New York. Which Denver team shows up this week? I'll split the difference and give them a workmanlike win over the Chiefs.

Broncos 27, Chiefs 17

New York Jets at San Francisco: What I saw last week from the Jets really bothered me, but you've got to respect their 8-4 record at this point. I see them running the ball very well in San Francisco this week, but it will not be an easy win.

Jets 20, 49ers 17

New England at Seattle: The Patriots are a bit desperate for a win right now after having been pounded by the Steelers last week. Seattle seems like a good spot for desperate teams.

Patriots 26, Seahawks 20

St. Louis at Arizona: Until the Cardinals step up and win a game against a top contender, I'll continue to have my doubts. They get another "luxury" game this week against one of the Tree Stooges of the NFC West.

Cardinals 38, Rams 17

Dallas at Pittsburgh: I think this game is going to be incredibly close. There is a very strong part of me that wants to pick the upset, but I was so impressed by what the Steelers did to the Patriots last week that I'll stick with the home team here. As a betting man, I wouldn't touch this game with a 10 foot pole.

Steelers 23, Cowboys 22

Washington at Baltimore: There is this sick part of me, deep down in my gut, that sees the Redskins shocking the masses and taking home a 10 point victory. But sometimes, you must wave off your gut and instead follow logic, reason, and reality. If the NFL awarded the Redskins 6 points every time they cross the 50 this week, I'm still not sure they'd score 20.

Ravens 19, Redskins 10

Tampa Bay at Carolina: When picking games, I love to go with trends, "due's," and history. For the most part, it's been a solid strategy for me. But sometimes, you just need to choose the better team. Even though I think the trends point towards Carolina this week, I simply think Tampa Bay is a tougher, more physical football team. I see the Bucs winning it in the 4th quarter in a great late-season Monday Nighter.

Bucs 24, Panthers 22

4 To Score

Lock of the Week:

Eagles (+9) at Giants. Playing a hunch here that the Eagles keep it close.

2. Bucs (+3) at Panthers. Again, the "better team" theory rules here.
3. Colts (-13.5) vs. Bengals. Going against the Bengals is usually a smart bet.
4. Bills (-1) vs. Dolphins. Didn't really like a fourth game this week, so I'll toss a coin on the Pick Em'.

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