NFL Week Thirteen Picks, Pats, and Apologies

Last Week: 10-6
Season: 117-58-1
Record Picking Redskins Games: 6-5
Against the Spread: 23-22-2
Lock of the Week: 6-5-1

Last Week's Pats: After a real rough go of things, I've hit my lock of the week for the second week in a row, thanks to the Steelers covering against Cincinnati. I also correctly predicted the exact score of the Redskins-Seahawks game.

Last Week's Apologies: I was really confident that Green Bay would win outright and cover the spread in New Orleans. Then, their defense went into shambles and the Saints won the game going away. I also must apologize to the Jets, who I did not see handing Tennessee their first loss of the season. And when the Lions took a 17-0 lead over Tampa, I was looking like a genius. If only they'd stopped the game right there.

This Week's Picks:

Tennessee at Detroit: I keep telling people that the Lions will not go 0-16. We're beginning to run out of chances.....

Titans 27, Lions 10

Seattle at Dallas: The Seahawks are continuing a recent trend of the NFL sending sacraficial lambs to Texas Stadium on Turkey Day. Dallas certainly looks rejuvinated with Tony Romo back in the fold.

Cowboys 31, Seahawks 13

Arizona at Philadelphia: On paper, this game looks fairly simple; The Eagles are crashing, and the Cardinals are having their best season in several decades. But Arizona's struggles on the road-- namely on the easy coast are not lost on me, and I am going to continue to doubt them in those spots until they prove differently.

Eagles 23, Cardinals 20

San Francisco at Buffalo: Well, the Bills needed that....a 50 point outburst against the Chiefs most likely has the Bills feeling a bit better, but you've got to wonder if it's not a bit too little, too late. Still, the Bills will win this week and keep their hopes alive.

Bills 24, 49ers 17

Baltimore at Cincinnati: Ryan Fitzpatrick will be spending more time on his back than Paris Hilton after a few martinis.

Ravens 26, Bengals 6

Indianapolis at Cleveland: With Brady Quinn going down for the year, Browns fans may have lost their last bit of motivation for the 2008 season. For some reason, I have a funny feeling the Colts mess around in this game and almost blow it, but hold on for the win.

Colts 22, Browns 19

Carolina at Green Bay: I've been hitting and missing (mostly missing) with the Packers this year, and I find their 5-6 record at this point to be a definite disappointment. But I really don't like what I see from the Panthers right now, and homefield will make the difference here.

Packers 28, Panthers 24

Miami at St. Louis: Are the Rams even trying at this point?

Dolphins 27, Rams 14

New Orleans at Tampa Bay: I'm officially sold that the Bucs are the best team in the NFC South. Drew Brees is a great player, and deserving of MVP consideration, but I don't think the Saints defense will be able to keep pace.

Bucs 24, Saints 20

New York Giants at Washington: All intangibles favor the Redskins this week: The Redskins are due to win a game at home; the Giants are due to lose a game, period; the Sean Taylor pre-game ceremony will provide an emotional lift; the game is more important for Washington; the Giants may have some key injuries. With that in mind, there is still one major factor in the Giants favor--they are the better team. Having said that, I'm going with the intangibles this week.

Redskins 23, Giants 20

Atlanta at San Diego: With one team 7-4 and the other 4-7, you'd have a hard time figuring out who was the 5.5 point favorite this week. I think there is a reason for that. I view this as a bad spot for Atlanta.

Chargers 29, Falcons 20

Denver at New York Jets: For two weeks, the Broncos looked like they wanted to contend in the AFC. But after last week's embarrassment, they look like complete pretenders. I think they hang close with the Jets this week, but not close enough.

Jets 30, Broncos 24

Pittsburgh at New England: Matt Cassel is making himself some major money right now. The Patriots offense is starting to click and that has to make the other teams in the AFC pretty darn nervous.

Patriots 27, Steelers 24

Kansas City at Oakland: I'm going with the revenge factor is this riveting battle.

Chiefs 28, Raiders 26

Chicago at Minnesota: Suddenly, this game doesn't look so stinky; both teams are playing decent football right now, and in their last meeting, these two teams staged a highly entertaining shootout. I look for the scoring to come a little less easily this week and for the outcome to be reversed.

Vikings 26, Bears 23

Jacksonville at Houston: ESPN hasn't had much to complain about in regards to their Monday Night schedule this year, so I guess they can live with one dud. But can you?

Texans 19, Jaguars 15

4 To Score

Lock of the Week

Broncos (+9) at Jets. I think the oddsmakers got a little too high on the Jets this week.

2. Patriots (even) vs. Steelers. I generally like home teams in pick em' games.
3. Redskins (+3) vs. Giants. Home team pulls the outright upset.
4. Ravens (-7) vs. Bengals. If the Ravens score 8, they may cover.

A Good Day to Be a Sooner

The doorbell rang at 10:45 a.m. He wasn’t supposed to be there for another hour. As I went to the door, still wearing my pajama pants, I saw him there in all his glory; Dad was decked out in Saturday best: OU hoodie, OU hat, OU windbreaker. He said we got our lines of communication crossed and that’s why he was so early. Personally, I just think he was excited.

The big day had arrived. We’d been talking about this day for weeks, and Dad even took off work on Friday to “rest up.” At 7:00 p.m., the Sooners were going to take the field to battle the #2 ranked Texas Tech Red Raiders. But our day was starting earlier. Much, much earlier.

Not only are we season ticket holders in football, but men’s basketball as well. Saturday represented a rare occurrence when both teams were playing home games on the same day. In an effort to curb traffic, the school scheduled the basketball game for 1:00 p.m. Considering we didn’t figure to get home from the football game until midnight, this was going to make for one long day in Norman, Oklahoma.

Make that one glorious day in Norman, Oklahoma.

Dad may have been born and raised in New York, but he has the internal body thermometer of a 90 year-old woman from Florida. The man hates the cold. He starts shivering at 55 degrees, begins chattering at 40 degrees, and goes into shock at anything in the 30’s or below. As we headed for Norman in the late morning, the sun was out, and the air was very comfortable. But my Dad had been researching the weather all week, and he knew that once that sun went down, it was going to be one chilly evening in the upper level of the stadium. So, he responded as only he can: Undershirt? Check. Long sleeve Tee? Check. Hooded sweatshirt? Check. Windbreaker? Check. Knee-Length winter coat? Check. Gloves? Check (times two). Wool socks? Check. Scarf? Check. Wool cap? Check. Manhood? Not a chance.

I am no masochist. I don’t like being cold either. But I figured a pair of gloves, hat, long sleeves, and a vest would suffice. I put my modest stash of items into the trunk, which was already weighted down by his winter collection as we hit the highway, bound for our first stop.

As we pulled into the Lloyd Noble Center for the basketball game, it was readily apparent that this day was going to be different than most. Lloyd Noble has a huge parking lot and finding a spot is almost never an issue. But on this day, half of the lot was filled with RV’s and campers, all kinds of folks getting ready for the football game. My Dad saw one camper with a Texas Tech flag, turned to me and said, “what kind of bull….. is that!”

We figured we’d be sweating out a tight football game that night and we were looking forward to a leisurely afternoon of watching our highly ranked basketball team kick the tails of tiny Gardner-Webb. Apparently, our team had also prepared for a leisurely afternoon. My Dad is the biggest OU homer in the world, but he is also an incredible pessimist both before and during games. Midway through the first half, OU was looking listless while clinging to a small lead; I assured Dad that by halftime we’d be well out in front. However, Dad kept turning to me after every Gardner-Webb basket and said, “We’re going to lose this game!”

I ignored his pessimism until OU found themselves down by 5 points with just under 6:00 minutes remaining in the game. At that point, I turned to Dad and said, “Holy sh… we may lose this game!” Even though it was unsaid at that point, I think Dad, myself and all the other fans in attendance were all thinking the same thing: What a horrible omen to start the day.

Luckily, OU rallied. Blake Griffin was simply too much for Garnder-Webb to handle, and OU clamped down on defense in the final minutes to pull away for an 80-76 victory. Dad and I sat in our seats for awhile, soaking in the relief of escaping with a win we probably didn’t deserve. As we walked out of the arena, Dad said, “Just imagine if the football game ends in the same score.”

Who knew that one team was going to come darn close.

Dad’s pessimism extends beyond the games themselves. After making our way out of the Lloyd Noble parking lot, I figured we’d take advantage of our four hours of downtime, by finding a parking spot closer to the football stadium than normal. As I made my way towards an area I had targeted, Dad kept telling me what a fruitless effort it was. “We might as well have just stayed in the Lloyd Noble parking lot….you’ll never find a space around here…” Five minutes later, we found an individual selling spots on his lawn for $10, only a few blocks from the stadium.

At this point, it was 3:30 p.m., and the temperature was comfortable, even warm. Dad and I wanted to head towards Campus Corner to grab a bite to eat and soak in the atmosphere a bit. But we had a bit of a dilemma with his winter garb; The only realistic thing for him to do was to take all of his layers with him now. Beyond that, the only realistic way to transport them was to actually wear them. So off we head towards Campus Corner on this beautiful afternoon- the Eskimo and me. Dad was sweating bullets by the time we got there. He quickly unlayered as we sat down to eat lunch.

Campus Corner was hopping as always on game day. But on this day, you could sense a different electricity in the air. Because OU plays their most hated rival every year at a neutral site (Texas), we don’t always get marquee match-ups in Norman. And it is incredibly rare for a team ranked above OU to come into Norman. Head coach Bob Stoops challenged the fans to be louder than normal this week, and you could sense that the fans were getting ready to respond.

After lunch, we headed to New York Pizza—one of my favorite places in Norman. We sat down, had a few drinks, and watched Notre Dame lose to lowly Syracuse. As the game ended, my Dad was cackling and yelling, “Screw those Notre Dame bastards!”

At 5:15, Dad was getting antsy. We packed up his layers and headed to the tailgate tent that his company sets up for each home game. Once we got there, my wife and my in-laws stopped by to say hello. We ate some hot dogs, took a few pictures, and as always, had some laughs—with Dad leading the charge. As game time approached, the temperature began to dip, and Dad was quickly thankful for his many, many layers. From our spot at the tailgate, we always see the band enter the stadium, blaring “Boomer Sooner” all the way. As they approached on Saturday, you could see little kids from all over the area sprinting to see them cross into the stadium. Mixed in with those little kids? You got it, a 61-year-old man pushing his way to get a better view.

By 6:00 p.m., Dad couldn’t take it anymore. He handed me my ticket and informed me that he was heading up to our seats. For some reason, sitting in his seat for the final hour prior to kickoff makes him feel better. I told him I’d see him there and hung out my with wife and sister-in-law for a bit longer.

Around 6:30, I made my way to our seats. When I got there, I motioned for my Dad to scoot over, but he refused. He said, “I’m not sitting next to those ass….” Sure enough, directly to my left were two young Texas Tech fans. They wound up being quite friendly, but Dad was having none of it.

The pre-game build up was intense. The crowd was wired. The stands were full and Dad was already losing his voice before the team made their way out of the tunnel.

Once the game started, it all became a blur. A blur of Crimson and Cream glory in what may prove to be one of the finest moments in a storied history. It wasn’t a game: It was a party. It was 14-0 before we even thought about sitting down. It was 28-0 before Dad had time to send a bragging text message to a friend, and it was 42-7 at the half. After OU scored the touchdown to put them up by that margin, the song “Jump Around” was played over the loudspeaker during the timeout. What followed was quite possibly my all-time favorite Owen Field moment: The entire OU bench started jumping up and down, imploring the fans on the west side of the stadium to follow suit. Each player was waving a towel, and each fan responded in kind. The entire stadium was jumping up and down in unison with the team. It was Sooner Magic personified.

Early in the second half, our Texas Tech friends decided enough was enough. They actually left during a play where Texas Tech fumbled and OU returned it to the one-yard line. In between bellows of cackling laughter my Dad kept saying, “They left…the dumb bastards left….screw em’!”

Final Score: OU 65, Texas Tech 21.

After the game, we quickly made our way to the car. You’d think fatigue would have been getting to us by now, but we were both jazzed and wide-eyed as we hit the highway for home. Dad called his brother-in-law in South Carolina to give him a report, but I’m not sure my Uncle could understand a word given the condition of my Dad’s voice. By that time, he sounded like an 11-year-old girl. When he got off the phone, things suddenly got quiet. We simply listened to the post-game show on the radio. Neither of us said a word the entire drive home. Once you’ve achieved the perfection, there simply isn’t anything left to say.

NFL Week Twelve Picks, Pats, and Apologies

Last Week: 10-5-1
Season: 107-52-1
Record Picking Redskins Games: 5-5
Against the Spread: 21-20-2
Lock of the Week: 5-5-1

Last Week's Pats: Finally got back on track with my Lock of the Week. Not only did I pick the Broncos to cover the spread in Atlanta, but I also correctly picked them to win the game outright. Also predicted that the Raiders would cover in Miami and that the Cowboys would beat the Redskins...oh wait......

Last Week's Apologies: Once again, I changed a pick at the last minute and failed. For the second week in a row, it was the Redskins who burned me. So, no, officially, I did not pick the Cowboys to win and I must include them in my list of apologies. Also, the Titans are really beginning to make me look stupid. I keep picking them to lose their first, and they keep winning.

This Week's Picks:

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh: If it ends in a tie, at least the players will understand why-- or at least they should. It won't end it a tie.

Steelers 30, Bengals 14

Philadelphia at Baltimore: Memo to Donovan McNabb: A touchdown is worth 6 points. A field goal is worth 3 points. A safety is worth 2 points. Ah, forget it. I like the Ravens in an ugly one.

Ravens 16, Eagles 13

Houston at Cleveland: I had the Texans pegged as a wild card before the season. At 3-7, I don't think I'm going to be correct. Brady Quinn seems to have injected some life into the once lifeless Browns.

Browns 27, Texans 20

San Francisco at Dallas: As a Redskins fan, I have the sickening feeling in the pit of my stomach that the Cowboys win in Washington last week is going to propel them to a strong finish. The 49ers are playing harder thesedays, but I don't think they can score enough to pull the upset here.

Cowboys 24, 49ers 13

Tampa Bay at Detroit: Every once in awhile, a man must live on the wild side. I am a perfect 10-0 predicting Lions games this year. I aim to remain perfect.

Lions 19, Bucs 16

Minnesota at Jacksonville: Two poorly coached teams; the Jags are falling apart, but I'm not sure the Vikings can take advantage. Toss a coin on this one.

Jaguars 20, Vikings 17

Buffalo at Kansas City: Dick Jaraun's ultimate conservatism may have cost the Bills a pivotal game on Monday night. Why do you "settle" for a 47 yard field goal, when one completion could potentially make it a gimmie kick? That was a horrible loss for the Bills, but I'll say they find a way in Kansas City this week.

Bills 21, Chiefs 19

New England at Miami: A little payback headed Miami's way?

Patriots 26, Dolphins 17

Chicago at St. Louis: The Rams are just what the doctor ordered for a reeling Bears team. Looks to me like St. Louis has flat out quit.

Bears 28, Rams 14

New York Jets at Tennessee: OK, Titans, I get it...you're really good.

Titans 20, Jets 13

Oakland at Denver: Looked for awhile there like Denver was going to collapse. But two very solid road wins have them looking like the clear cut favorites to win the pathetic AFC West. Things don't get much easier than a home game against the Raiders.

Broncos 34, Raiders 20

Carolina at Atlanta: The Panthers are about as unimpressive 8-2 team as I've ever seen. Jake Delhomme has been absolutely putrid the past two weeks, yet the Panthers managed to win boths game against dreadful opponents. Take a look at Carolina's remaining schedule: You can make an argument against them in all six games. This is more important for the Panthers than it appears on paper. But I don't like what I've seen the past few weeks.

Falcons 27, Panthers 20

New York Giants at Arizona: Think about this for a minute: If the Cardinals win, they will only need to make up ONE more game on the Giants in order to secure homefield advantage throughout the NFC playoffs. The Cardinals as the #1 seed? Really? I'm not quite ready to process that.

Giants 27, Cardinals 24

Washington at Seattle: With Giants-Cardinals and Panthers-Falcons taking place at the same time, I pity those that are stuck watching this one. The Redskins are circling the toilet bowl right now, and with a loss, the Seahawks could flush them away for good. But here's a vote for the Redskins defense to win this one for Washington.

Redskins 20, Seahawks 17

Indianapolis at San Diego: I really like what I see from the Colts right now; their offense is starting to click. It does make me nervous that this is such a desperation game for the Chargers, but the Colts should be motivated to avenge their playoff loss last season. Look for Indy to throw some dirt on the Chargers season.

Colts 29, Chargers 24

Green Bay at New Orleans: This game probably represents the Saints last realistic gasp at a playoff berth. But the Packers defense appears healthier and the offense got rolling against the Bears last week. Going with a mild upset here.

Packers 30, Saints 26

4 To Score

Lock of the Week:

Steelers (-10) vs. Bengals: I just don't see how the Bengals will move the ball

2. Lions (+9) vs. Bucs: Much like my Raiders pick last week, don't ask why.
3. Ravens (even) vs. Eagles: Not liking what I see from the Eagles at all right now.
4. Packers (+3) at Saints. Picking Green Bay to win outright, so I like getting the points.

Redskins Loss Deflates Hope

Is it more important where you are, or how you got there?

As a Redskins fan, that's the question bugging me this morning, following the 14-10 loss to the Cowboys on Sunday night.

Prior to the season, I was very concerned about the state of the team. Honestly, part of me was simply hoping that new coach Jim Zorn and staff simply wouldn't embarrass themselves or the franchise. Looking at the roster and circumstances objectively, I saw a team that might be able to finish 9-7 and contend for a wild card, if things fell their way.

Prior to the season, I would have been happy, or at least extremely content with a 6-4 record through a fairly difficult 10 game stretch. That's where the Redskins find themselves right now. But I find myself neither happy or content. I don't mind where we are, but I am not happy with how we got here.

After an opening night stinker against the Giants, the Redskins embarked on arguably the best stretch of football this franchise has seen in over 15 years. In winning four in a row, not only did the Redskins knock off four NFC playoff contenders, but they defeated two division rivals-- on the road. And they did so in dynamic fashion; displaying a well balanced offense, an opportunistic defense, and an overall aggressive and creative approach from the coaching staff.

Perhaps the Redskins were playing a bit over their heads during that stretch, but all in all, that particular four game winning streak did not feel like a fluke. There was nothing fleeting about the way they manhandled the Cowboys and Eagles along the lines of scrimmage.

More important than anything that occured during those games was the rapid development of quarterback Jason Campbell. Campbell entered this season at a pivotal crossroads of his career. Youth was no longer going to be an acceptable excuse for poor decisions and uneven play. Zorn is known as a quarterback guru, and Campbell had hit "put up or shut up" time in his career.

Through the first stretch of games, Campbell not only looked to be turning a positive corner in his career, there was legitimate league MVP talk. Not only was he "managing the game" by not making mistakes, he was winning the game for the Redskins by making big plays late in games both with his arm and with his feet.

But after the four game winning streak, all of the development (for both the team and Campbell) has seemed to hit a brick wall. The Redskins have lost three of their last five games, with all three losses coming at home.

Early in the year, the Redskins played teams close early and then gradually wore them down in the end. In their past two games against the Steelers and Cowboys, the Redskins have taken early leads and then were gradually worn down by their opponents.

On Sunday night, the Redskins were "one play away" on several occasions from putting the Cowboys behind the eight ball. The Redskins defense held the Cowboys to 14 points, yet Campbell and the offense were unable to extend the lead they held for the first three quarters. Once Dallas took the lead, Campbell was unable to mount a winning drive. Marion Barber and the Cowboys offensive line sealed the deal from there.

Many will point a finger at the coaching staff for this loss, and with good reason. Many will point a finger at the lack of receiving threats, and with good reason. But in the end, this was a game where you needed your QB to find a way. You needed him to grind one out for the team. You needed him to make a play, even when there wasn't necessarily a play to be made. Tony Romo was far from spectacular for the Cowboys, but when his team was down 10-7 early in the fourth quarter, Romo made clutch plays. He improvised. He found an opening when all windows appeared to be closed. He did what he needed to do.

Campbell did not.

In his defense, and as mentioned earlier, Campbell did make clutch plays earlier in the year that led the Redskins to victory. But quarterbacks are not judged on the clutch plays they make in September. They are judged on the clutch plays they make in November and beyond.

It wasn't his fault, but the fact remains that the Redskins played their best football last season once Campbell went down with an injury. Todd Collins came in and led an improbable run to the playoffs. Campbell may have done the exact same thing, but he didn't, and therefore, we can only judge him on what we've seen.

So what exactly have we seen?

Is it a very good young QB who simply had a couple of lousy games?

Or is it a young QB who is simply destined to be an average player in this league?

I don't think you can throw the gavel down quite yet, but with each passing game, Campbell is inching closer to the latter.

Technically, the Redskins could still finish 12-4. They could also still finish 6-10.

Smart money probably says they will finish 9-7 or 10-6 and be right on the cusp of making the playoffs as a wild card.

I would have been quite happy with that destination prior to the season. But that's the thing about destinations; sometimes the journey is more important.

NFL Week Eleven Picks, Pats, and Apologies

Last Week: 9-5
Season: 97-47
Record Picking Redskins Games: 5-4
Against the Spread: 19-18-2
Lock of the Week: 4-5-1

Last Week's Pats: I had a feeling the Colts would find a way to win in Pittsburgh, and that feeling came through for me.

Last Week's Apologies: My other "feelings?" Not so much. I went 1-3 against the spread and the three games I lost were by ridiculous margins. I also messed up my Lock of the Week yet again. And apologies to the Giants, who I thought might take a night off in Philly. The Giants have the best offense in the NFL by a mile. It's truly a pick your poison scenerio when gameplanning for them.

This Week's Picks:

New York Jets at New England: The Jets have played very well the past several weeks, but I guess you could say I'm still drinking the Patriot Kool-Aid. New England has quietly gotten into a bit of a groove and Matt Casell is beginning to look more comfortable. When in doubt, take the Pats.

Patriots 27, Jets 21

Denver at Atlanta: I'm sure Falcons fans will see this as the ultimate sign of disrespect seeing I've picked against them the past two weeks and got burned each time. But it's hard to ignore my gut, and my gut smells upset this week.

Broncos 30, Falcons 27

Detroit at Carolina: Good grief. If the Panthers can beat the Raiders by 11 with Jake Delhomme possibly having the worst game for a QB in NFL history, imagine what they'll do to the Lions if he's just average.

Panthers 31, Lions 10

Chicago at Green Bay: The Bears and Vikings are getting most of the attention in the NFC North right now, but I think the Packers will find themselves in a three-way tie at the top after they beat Chicago this week.

Packers 28, Bears 20

Houston at Indianapolis: I am officially off the Texans bandwagon. I mean it this time.

Colts 29, Texans 17

New Orleans at Kansas City: The Chiefs are playing very hard right now and Tyler Thigpen is showing that he may have a future in this league. But there is a reason the Chiefs are 1-8, and even though the Saints couldn't stop the Kansas City Groundhogs 55 and up flag football team, let alone the Kansas City Chiefs, I see the Saints scoring just enough to pull it out.

Saints 34, Chiefs 27

Oakland at Miami: The Dolphins are going to wake up on Monday morning with a 6-4 record and in the thick of the playoff race in the AFC. Dolphins fans across the country will continue to pinch themselves.

Dolphins 20, Raiders 13

Baltimore at New York Giants: I have officially decided to start taking the Ravens seriously. I wanted to see if their offense could sustain their above average production, and now that they've done just that for several weeks, I'm convinced this team is legit. Having said that, they are playing on the road against the best team in the league this week. I have a feeling Joe Flacco may have a tough afternoon.

Giants 23, Ravens 13

Minnesota at Tampa Bay: A team can only get by with horrid QB play for so long. Gus Frerotte looked miserable last week against the Packers; the Bucs will make him look much worse.

Bucs 20, Vikings 16

Philadelphia at Cincinnati: The Bengals had two weeks to celebrate their first and only win of the season. I hope they soaked it in.

Eagles 30, Bengals 17

St. Louis at San Francisco: Mike Martz blamed the loss last week on the refs for not telling them where the ball was going to be spotted prior to the last play of the game. Martz said they couldn't tell where the ball was from the sidelines and therefore, they stuck with the play that was originally called. While I understand his complaint, how about blaming QB Shaun Hill? He was ON the field. He KNEW where the ball was spotted. He could have easily used his brain, spiked the ball to stop the clock and made sure to get a better play called. Martz's whining doesn't resonate with me on this one. I can't believe I've spent so much time talking about this game.

49ers 17, Rams 16

Arizona at Seattle: The Cardinals could sleepwalk through the rest of the season and still win the NFC West handily. That is exactly what I see happening this week.

Seahawks 24, Cardinals 19

Tennessee at Jacksonville: I picked the Colts to beat the Titans. Wrong. I picked the Packers to beat the Titans. Wrong. I got smart last week and picked the Titans to beat the Bears. Right. So, I've learned my lesson? Wrong. I see the schizo Jags ending the winning streak on Sunday.

Jaguars 19, Titans 16

San Diego at Pittsburgh: Chargers are catching the Steelers at a very bad time. What are the chances Pittsburgh loses three home games in a row?

Steelers 27, Chargers 17

Dallas at Washington: Even if Clinton Portis was 100% healthy, I have a feeling the Cowboys show up on Sunday Night and get themselves back into the playoff picture in the NFC.

Cowboys 27, Redskins 20

***EDIT***

I am 0-2 when changing picks this year. I was "talked in" to changing my pick in the Steelers-Redskins game with disasterous results. But the above pick just made me feel too dirty. New pick:

Redskins 23, Cowboys 20

Cleveland at Buffalo: The Browns are done-- just ask their players. The Bills are fading. I'll take "fading" over "quitting."

Bills 22, Browns 21

4 To Score

Lock of the Week

Broncos (+5.5) at Falcons: If you fail, try, try again.

2. Seahawks (+3) vs. Cardinals: Hasslebeck's return is a big factor here.
3. Steelers (-3.5) vs. Chargers. That half point is always frustrating, but I see Pittsburgh taking care of business this week.
4. Raiders (+10) at Dolphins. Don't ask me why.

NFL Week Ten Picks, Pats, and Apologies

Last Week: 8-6
Season: 88-42
Record Picking Redskins Games: 5-4
Against the Spread: 18-15-2
Lock of the Week: 4-4-1

Last Week's Pats: Other than correctly predicting the Jets to upset the Bills, I didn't have to write home about. I did come close to nailing my big upset pick of Packers over Titans, but last time I checked, "close" don't mean jack squat.

Last Week's Apologies: Kind of a long list this week. I must start with the Falcons who made me look absoultely foolish by shutting out the Raiders in a game where I picked another upset. The Titans must also be laughing at me for picking against them (and losing) for the second week in a row. And yes, I made a last minute change and went with the Redskins over the Steelers, and predictably, lost badly.

This Week's Picks:

Denver at Cleveland: Two teams heading in the wrong direction; neither of them can stop anybody. Game could go either way, but I'll give a nod to the home team and first time starter, Brady Quinn.

Browns 27, Broncos 24

New Orleans at Atlanta: Even though they beat the lowly Raiders, I still came away impressed with the Falcons last week. Their offense is getting some much-deserved attention, but quietly their defense is putting together strong performances as well. Another really tough call, but I'm going to say Drew Brees gets the best of Matt Ryan this week.

Saints 31, Falcons 27

Tennessee at Chicago: The Titans have to lose eventually, right? Well, I'm not going to fall into that trap again. I've picked against Tennessee for two straight weeks, and I'm not going to make the same mistake a third time. This is probably the kiss of death for the Titans win streak.

Titans 20, Bears 17

Jacksonville at Detroit: How funny would it be if the Jaguars provide the first win of the season for both the Bengals and the Lions? Even though I think Jacksonville is a semi-gutless, poorly coached team, I'll give them a slight benefit of the doubt and say they avoid total humiliation this week.

Jaguars 22, Lions 16

Seattle at Miami: Dolphins are a bit tricky to figure out right now. Just when you think they might get rolling, they lose one they shouldn't, and right when you think they might get buried, they pull out a tough one. I don't see a slip-up for the Dolphins this week against the putird Seattle offense.

Dolphins 23, Seahawks 15

Green Bay at Minnesota: It's just getting to that time of the year when we start seeing some truly pivotal games around the league. With both of these teams sitting at 4-4, this game could prove to go a long way in sorting out the race in the NFC North. The Packers were my pre-season Super Bowl pick, and while it's pretty clear they aren't on that level, I still think they are the best team in the division and will eventually wind up the winners.

Packers 27, Vikings 20

Buffalo at New England: Speaking of pivotal games....if the Bills lose this week, things could start crumbling a bit in Buffalo, as they would clearly become the third or fourth team in the hunt for the competitive AFC East. Looks to me that while the Patriots are far from dominant, they have found a little groove and expect them to take care of business at home.

Patriots 26, Bills 17

St. Louis at New York Jets: Things were looking up for the Rams, then.....crash. Even though my gut is feeling an upset here, I'm going to stick with the safe choice.

Jets 23, Rams 20

Baltimore at Houston: If Joe Flacco is turning into a solid NFL starter, then the Ravens are a legitimate threat in the NFC. But I still see him taking some lumps along the way, and I'm going with a mild upset here.

Texans 17, Ravens 14

Carolina at Oakland: Easiest straight-up game of the week. Things are completely unraveling in Oakland.

Panthers 28, Raiders 13

Indianapolis at Pittsburgh: It's always hard to predict games pitting teams with "different agendas" at this point in the season. The Steelers are the better team and they are at home. Makes for an easy choice, right? Well, I think desperation matters, and for the 4-4 Colts, this is a crucial game for the rest of their season. Despite the fact that the Steelers defense looks downright nasty right now, I'm going with the upset, regardless of who starts at QB for Pittsburgh.

Colts 21, Steelers 17

Kansas City at San Diego: Not a bad BYE week for the Chargers, as their only competition in the AFC West (Denver) flopped at home against Miami. At 3-5, the Chargers are still very much alive in the division race and getting the Chiefs at home is an added bonus.

Chargers 29, Chiefs 16

New York Giants at Philadelphia: Another game pitting two teams at different "stages" right now. This is a much bigger game for Philly, especially considering they are at home. The Giants 7-1 start has provided them a nice cushion, even in the ultra-competitive NFC East. The Eagles look very sharp right now and I see them holding on a handing the Giants their second loss of the season.

Eagles 24, Giants 22

San Francisco at Arizona: A Monday Night dud. I suppose it's possible that Mike Singletary could rally his troops a bit given his emotional post-game rant two weeks ago and given two weeks to prepare for this game. But the Cardinals offense is simply too much for the Niners to handle. Arizona (as funny as it sounds) is going to crusie to the division title.

Cardinals 33, 49ers 20

4 To Score

Lock of the Week:

Saints (even) at Falcons. My locks of the week have been anything but this year, so I wouldn't rush off to Vegas quite yet.

2. Rams (+7.5) at Jets. I find the half point in this game highly tantalizing.
3. Patriots (-4) vs. Bills. Really only found two games I like this week, this was an uninspired third.
4. Texans (-2) vs. Ravens. Even less inspired than #3.