NFL Week Nine Picks, Pats, and Apologies

Last Week: 10-4
Season: 80-36
Record Picking Redskins Games: 5-3
Against the Spread: 16-13-2
Lock of the Week: 4-3-1

Last Week's Pats: I was on fire during the early games on Sunday, going 9-0 and missing both the final scores of the Redskins-Lions game and Cardinals-Panthers game by a total of one point. I also correctly predicted the Saints to beat the Chargers in a shootout and for the Dolphins to upset the Bills.

Last Week's Apologies: I quickly went downhill after the early games, as I missed on the Steelers beating the Giants and missed badly on the Seahawks-49ers game. I also blew my lock of the week on Monday Night, as the Titans easily covered the spread against the Colts.

This Week's Picks:

New York Jets at Buffalo: Bills fans must loathe me. I haven't shown Buffalo much respect in my picks this year, and it's not because I don't think they are a solid team. But once again, I'm smelling upset in a Bills game. By no means am I in love with the Jets (their defense was pathetic last week), but I'm going with a gut feeling here.

Jets 23, Bills 20

Detroit at Chicago: I don't think the Bears will roll over the Lions quite like they did in Detroit a few weeks ago, but this game will not be close late.

Bears 27, Lions 17

Jacksonville at Cincinnati: I've reached a verdict on the Jaguars: They are a poorly coached team. Jack Del Rio is not doing a good job down there-- their inconsistency points to shaky leadership from the top. Having said that, the Bengals are just what the doctor ordered for a struggling team.

Jaguars 28, Bengals 14

Baltimore at Cleveland: The Browns seem to have gotten back on track a bit and I think they will avenge their earlier loss to the Ravens.

Browns 19, Ravens 16

Tampa Bay at Kansas City: The Chiefs fought hard in their loss to the Jets last week, and I think Herm Edwards is probably a good coach to keep that team motivated. But the bottom line is that they just aren't any good. The Tampa defense will smother them this week.

Bucs 24, Chiefs 9

Houston at Minnesota: Quietly, the Texans have run off three wins in a row. Houston my pre-season surprise team and they let me down during the first quarter of the season, so I'm a tad gun shy to pick them on the road at this point. So, I'm going to weenie-out and take the Vikings, although I think this is close to a 50/50 game.

Vikings 27, Texans 24

Arizona at St. Louis: I think this is close to a must-win game for Arizona if they want to be able to look themselves in the mirror right now. If they lose to St. Louis, they will drop to 1-4 on the road, making it difficult to take them very seriously. And this won't be an easy task, as the Rams are playing good football right now. I'm going to roll the dice and say Kurt Warner finds a way to lead his team to victory at his old stomping grounds.

Cardinals 30, Rams 24

Green Bay at Tennessee: I missed badly last week, picking the Titans to go down to the Colts. I'm sure some will view that choice and my pick this week as a slap in the face to the Tennessee, but I really do respect them and view them as a very viable Super Bowl threat. But it's tough to win em' all in the NFL, and I like the Packers coming off a bye week, playing a team on short rest.

Packers 17, Titans 14

Miami at Denver: The Broncos defense is so bad that they could lose to anyone at any time right now. But I'm casting my vote this week in their favor, thinking that Jay Cutler gets back on track after a miserable game in New England his last time out.

Broncos 31, Dolphins 24

Dallas at New York Giants: It's funny, with the way things are in the NFL right now, I can see almost any team winning any game, but for some reason, I just can't see Brad Johnson leading the Cowboys to victory at the Meadowlands this week. I'd pick the Giants 10 out 10 times in this match-up right now.

Giants 27, Cowboys 16

Atlanta at Oakland: I wasn't surprised the Raiders lost week in Baltimore, but I was a bit surprised at how poorly they played. Even though they were putrid last week, I'm picking them to win at home, as I see Atlanta regressing to the mean a bit.

Raiders 20, Falcons 17

Philadelphia at Seattle: This is another game that tempts me to choose an upset. Seattle has been horrid all season, but they seem to find a few things that worked last week in San Francisco. If Matt Hasselbeck was healthy, I think I'd lead towards the Seahawks, but I'm not sure Seneca Wallace can get it done against a tough Philly squad.

Eagles 23, Seahawks 17

New England at Indianapolis: Picking the Colts this week because it could be argued that a loss virtually ends their season in terms of serious contention. I'm not sure they are going to let that happen quite yet.

Colts 29, Patriots 17

Pittsburgh at Washington: Jim Zorn admitted this week that the Redskins are worn down both physically and mentally right now. Although no one likes to admit such things, their 6-2 record and the fact that they are playing an AFC team this week, makes this game far from a must-win. I also think this is just a plain bad match-up for the Redskins, who probably won't be able to count on another 120 yard performance from Clinton Portis this week. Look for the Steelers to win a rugged one.

Steelers 20, Redskins 16

***EDIT***

I am 0-1 so far this year when changing a pick at the last minute. And I actually might be 0-Lifetime when doing it over the years. But all week I've slowly been tilting back towards the Redskins, especially as their injury situation appeared to get better. So, I'm gonna go with my heart and a late-charging gut feeling and swap the score. New Prediction:

Redskins 20, Steelers 16

4 To Score

Lock of the Week:

Browns (even) vs. Ravens: Really like the Browns straight-up here.

2. Jets (+5.5) at Bills. I could certainly see the Bills winning the game, but I think it's close.
3. Packers (+6) at Titans. Tennessee made a fool out of me last week, so I'll give them another chance.
4. Jaguars (-7) at Bengals. Not sure Ryan Fitzpatrick can keep the Bengals that close.

NFL Week Eight Picks, Pats, and Apologies

Last Week: 10-4
Season: 70-32
Record Picking Redskins Games: 4-3
Against the Spread: 16-10-1
Lock of the Week: 4-2-1

Last Week's Pats: Another 10 win week, and another winning week against the spread. If only the Seahawks hadn't scored that meaningless TD late in the game in Tampa........I missed the Giants-49ers final score by one point, and I correctly predicted the final spread in the Redskins-Browns game.

Last Week's Apologies: I had a hard time choosing the winner in the Colts-Packers game, and I obviously settled on the wrong choice. Very surprised that Green Bay was able to manhandle the Colts like that, especially given the injury woes in the Packer secondary.

This Week's Picks:

Oakland at Baltimore: The Ravens seem like the type of team that may fly under the radar all season and then find themselves in contention for a wild card at the end of the year. I don't think they are a particularly dangerous team, but they will beat most of the teams they should beat. This week falls into that category.

Ravens 20, Raiders 13

Arizona at Carolina: The win against Dallas was a corner-turning victory for the Cardinals. That was a game the Cardinals always lost in the past. With the division crumbling around them, Arizona also has a pretty wide margin for error right now. On paper, this is a really nice match-up, but until the Cardinals prove they can win a game in a different time zone, I'll have to exercise caution when picking them.

Panthers 27, Cardinals 22

Tampa Bay at Dallas: Panic time in Dallas. If they lose this week, they will find themselves sitting at .500 with road trips to New York to play the Giants and Washington looming in their next two games. This is as close to a must-win in mid-season as it gets. I'm going to roll the dice and say they find a way to get their heads above water this week, but it's a shaky pick at best.

Cowboys 19, Bucs 16

Washington at Detroit: Here's the deal: The Lions aren't going to go 0-16 this year. But looking at their schedule, there isn't one game remaining that screams "win." Not even close. So, we know they are going to upset someone along the way, and it could happen in any given week. So, am I picking it this week? No, rather than trying to guess when it will happen, I'll just continue to pick against them and eventually get one wrong.

Redskins 26, Lions 17

Buffalo at Miami: This is one of those games that is just begging to confound people. After upsetting the Chargers, the Dolphins have returned to form, losing their last two games. The Bills, on the other hand, made a statement last week and are looking strong at 5-1. So, I'm going to go ahead and pick the Dolphins. Just doing my best to identify the "upset trends" around the league.

Dolphins 23, Bills 20

St. Louis at New England: Not having as easy a time picking this one as I thought. I think there is some legitimacy in the Rams back to back wins. Steven Jackson is an excellent back and their passing game seems to have more life now that rookie Donnie Avery has emerged. I also think they are playing with a purpose they did not have during their 0-4 start. I'm picking the Patriots this week, but I'll be watching this one closely.

Patriots 27, Rams 23

San Diego vs. New Orleans (London): Congratulations London....you get arguably the two most disappointing teams from each conference this week! One of these squads is staring 3-5 and a long trip home in the face. The other may be able to exhale heading into the bye. It's hard to predict how teams will react to the extended travel and strange environment. My gut tells me Drew Brees has a big day.

Saints 30, Chargers 27

Kansas City at New York Jets: After losing an ugly game in overtime on the other side of the country, getting a home game against the Chiefs is simply a blessing.

Jets 24, Chiefs 10

Atlanta at Philadelphia: Despite their hot start and despite the fact that Philly is currently 3-3, the oddsmakers are still placing the Falcons as an almost 10 point underdog in this game. I actually think they are on to something here.

Eagles 28, Falcons 16

Cleveland at Jacksonville: If Brady Quinn isn't loosening up his arm already, he should be. The Jags make me nervous this week because they seem to love shooting themselves in the foot after they get some momentum, but this is a game that a playoff team wins, period.

Jaguars 24, Browns 17

Cincinnati at Houston: Much like the Lions, the Benglas are bound to win one, right? Maybe next week.

Texans 31, Bengals 21

New York Giants at Pittsburgh: By far the best game of the week on an otherwise pedestrain week 8 docket. On a neutral field, I'd pick the Giants to win simply because I see them as the better team. But this game isn't being played a neutral field, and the best team doesn't always win. This game starts a brutal gauntlet of games for the Giants and I think they get off to a rocky start.

Steelers 24, Giants 20

Seattle at San Francisco: Ugly, ugly, ugly. Mike Singletary starts off 1-0 in his coaching career.

49ers 27, Seahawks 20

Indianapolis at Tennessee: Amazingly,the Titans can virtually wrap up the AFC South if they take care of the Colts this week. By winning, Tennessee would have a four game lead on the Colts and at least a three game lead on the Jaguars, having beaten both of those teams head to head. Blowing that kind of lead would be tough, especially given their relatively tame remaining schedule. Tennessee is for real, I have no doubts about that, but I see Peyton Manning willing his team to the upset this week and keeping things interesting in the South.

Colts 23, Titans 19

4 To Score

1. Colts (+4) at Titans. At worst, I see the Colts keeping it close.
2. 49ers (-5.5) vs. Seahawks. Seattle is lost and the 49ers may get an emotional boost this week.
3. Steelers (-2.5) vs. Giants. Not a whole bunch of games on the board that I like this week, so I tend to favor low spreads.
4. Rams (+7) at Patriots. I think the Rams keep it close.

NFL Week Seven Picks, Pats, and Apologies

Last Week: 10-4
Season: 60-28
Record Picking Redskins Games: 3-3
Against the Spread: 14-9
Lock of the Week: 4-2

Last Week's Pats: On a roll right now, especially against the spread where I went 3-1, improving to 7-1 over the past two weeks. I also need to pat myself on the back for correctly predicting the Browns to upset the Giants. How long can this hot streak last?

Last Week's Apologies: Can't really apologize to the Rams, because I don't think picking the Redskins was a stretch at all. But I will apologize to the Falcons, who I have been doubting all year-- now they have my attention.

This Week's Picks:

San Diego at Buffalo: Tough call here. As has been a staple of Norv Turner's teams over the years, the Chargers are completely unpredictable from week to week. Buffalo has had two weeks to recover from their blowout loss in Arizona, but something tells me the "good" Chargers show up this week.

Chargers 27, Bills 17

New Orleans at Carolina: Just when we were all ready to start saying, "watch out for the Panthers," in the NFC, they go and lay an egg in Tampa Bay. I like them to bounce back and win a close one against the Saints.

Panthers 24, Saints 22

Minnesota at Chicago: In all three of their losses, Chicago can make a good case that they really should have won. Oddly enough, the Bears offense is getting the job done, while the defense seems to be letting them down at critical points in the game. Minnesota has played better in recent weeks, but I'm still not impressed.

Bears 21, Vikings 17

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati: I'll give the Bengals some credit-- they are playing hard every week, but they just aren't any good. Marvin Lewis has completely failed at building a defense in Cincinnati and the Bengals find themselves in a very similar position as when he arrived.

Steelers 26, Bengals 16

Tennessee at Kansas City: With all of the "what the...." games taking place around the NFL, the Titans would be wise to take the Chiefs seriously. But I view the Titans as the type of squad that may be above such upsets. The Titans can be defeated for sure, but I think you will have to be better than them to do it.

Titans 24, Chiefs 10

Baltimore at Miami: Not expecting offensive fireworks this week on South Beach, that's for sure. The Ravens have the better defense in this match-up, but I definitely give the offensive edge to the resurrgent Dolphins, who have been moving the ball very well in recent weeks. Having said that, I just have a gut feeling the Ravens get it done this week.

Ravens 17, Dolphins 16

San Francisco at New York Giants: Was New York's loss in Cleveland an abberation or a sign of more serious issues? It's hard to tell, but until they prove otherwise, I'll lean towards to the former.

Giants 30, 49ers 17

Dallas at St. Louis: What a miserable week for the Cowboys. The trade for Roy Williams may alleviate some of the frustration from what took place both on the field and off the field this past week, but the Cowboys just don't look right. The pass defense is putrid, and the offense doesn't seem to have an identity. Losing Tony Romo for a month won't help either. But Romo's biggest weakness (ball security) has traditionally been Brad Johnson's biggest strength. If the Cowboys stop giving the ball to the other team, they may take some pressure off the struggling D. The Rams won last week, but their offense was still very, very shaky. This is far from a slam dunk pick, but I'll go with Dallas.

Cowboys 28, Rams 20

Detroit at Houston: The Lions are gross.

Texans 31, Lions 17

Indianapolis at Green Bay: This game is a Pick Em' for a reason: It's a total toss up. After some early struggles, the Colts may have found their groove last week against Baltimore, but the Packers also bounced back after a few ugly weeks, and got a much-needed win on the road. I could see this game becoming a shootout, and I have major concerns about the Packers banged-up secondary.

Colts 29, Packers 26

New York Jets at Oakland: Again, this is one of those games that screams upset given the climate of the league right now, but I'm going to give the Jets some credit and predict that they keep the Raiders at bay.

Jets 20, Raiders 17

Cleveland at Washington: Last week may have been a signal that both of these teams are regressing to the mean. Cleveland played much more like their fans expected them to play prior to the season and the Redskins looked like a team under a first year coach for the first time since week one. I definitely think Vegas is off on this game, as these are two evenly-matched teams. I'm going to say the Redskins find a way to scratch out a close one, but that is based primarily on the homefield advantage.

Redskins 24, Browns 21

Seattle at Tampa Bay: The Seahawks were circling drain with Matt Hasslebeck. Without him, they might be the worst team in the NFL.

Bucs 30, Seahawks 13

Denver at New England: I just don't trust the Broncos defense right now. New England will bounce back from an embarrassing performance last week.

Patriots 28, Broncos 24

4 To Score

1. Bucs (-10) vs. Seahawks. Charlie Frye, on the road, against the Bucs defense, doesn't sound like a good recipe to me.
2. Chargers (+1.5) at Bills. Erractic Chargers confound the oddsmakers again.
3. Browns (+7) at Redskins. Vegas is off the mark on this one.
4. Titans (-7.5) at Chiefs. Titans may be above some of the "letdown" games we're seeing around the league.

NFL Week Six Picks, Pats, and Apologies

Last Week: 10-4
Season: 50-24
Record Picking Redskins Games: 3-2
Against the Spread: 11-8
Lock of the Week: 3-2

Last Week's Pats: Where to begin? Possibly my best week in several years. I went 4-0 in my picks against the spread and correctly picked the final score in both the Colts-Texans game and the Saints-Vikings game. I was also very close to nailing the final score in the 49ers-Patriots game. This was a week worth bragging about.

Last Week's Apologies: Only one this week.....the Redskins. I was impressed with their victory over Dallas, but not totally sold. Now, I'm sold. I witnessed their win in Philly from the 50 yard line last week, and let me tell you-- it was a thing of beauty. They completely beat up on the Eagles. This team is for real.

This Week's Picks:

Chicago at Atlanta: Not sure what to think of the Falcons right now after their impressive win in Green Bay last Sunday. For now, I'm going to say it was more of an abberation, but that team has my attention.

Bears 20, Falcons 17

Oakland at New Orleans: Quite simply, the Saints are a very average football team. With each passing week, it appears that their great run in 2006 was more of an emotionally charged fluke and less of a sign of a team built for future success. Having said that, they beat Oakland this week.

Saints 27, Raiders 19

Carolina at Tampa Bay: My instinct is to pick the Panthers in this spot, but I've missed on the Bucs a couple of times already this year, and I'm going to give them the benefit of the doubt at home.

Bucs 19, Panthers 16

St. Louis at Washington: I guess this could be called a "trap" game for the Redskins. The Rams are 0-4, playing their first game since the coaching change and the Redskins return home after an incredibly successful road run in the division. I see the Redskins coming out flat, but pulling away late.

Redskins 29, Rams 17

Cincinnati at New York Jets: The Bengals are playing hard all of a sudden, but they have nothing to show for it. How long will this type of effort last?

Jets 30, Bengals 20

Detroit at Minnesota: The Vkings pulled off a must-win in New Orleans last Monday Night. Now, they can relax for at least a week.

Vikings 31, Lions 16

Miami at Houston: The Dolphins have been extremely impressive beating the Patriots and Chargers the past two weeks, but I see this as one of those "law of averages" games. Houston is more talented than their 0-4 record indicates.

Texans 23, Dolphins 20

Baltimore at Indianapolis: How long can Baltimore fans handle the same old story? Perhaps having a rookie QB running the offense alleviates some of the frustration with that unit, but at some point, trying to win every game 10-6 gets really old.

Colts 24, Ravens 13

Jacksonville at Denver: The Jags are a totally schizo football team. I honestly have no idea what to expect week to week from this bunch. Unfortunately for them, I think this points to poor, or at least inconsistent, leadership and coaching from Jack Del Rio. Rolling the dice and predicting they make us all scratch our heads again this week.

Jaguars 27, Broncos 23

Dallas at Arizona: Should be some fireworks out west, as neither of these teams has proven they can stop their opponents through the air. I see a shootout developing with Romo and company taking charge late.

Cowboys 34, Cardinals 26

Philadelphia at San Francisco: The Eagles are a team in a "bad place" both physically and mentally right now. They are already quickly fading in the ultra-competitive NFC East and the fans are calling for heads to roll. Going on the road may be just what the doctor ordered. I'm going with the Eagles here, but it's a shaky bet.

Eagles 24, 49ers 21

Green Bay at Seattle: Seattle just isn't any good. They've officially jumped the shark. The window has closed. Their run is over. Stick a fork in them. Got anymore cliches?

Packers 23, Seahawks 20

New England at San Diego: Another game where I really don't have a clue. The Chargers are slowly being "Norved" into mediocrity, but this is still a game they probably should win at home. But I just don't like what I've seen out of San Diego this year and I'm going with the upset.

Patriots 27, Chargers 24

New York Giants at Cleveland: OK, before I get called a "hater" by every Giants fan who reads this, let me state a few things: The Giants are the best team in the NFL right now, and I think they will still be the best team even if they drop one on the road this week. But the NFL is unpredictable and almost every game is hotly contested. The Giants were a two-point conversion away from losing at home to the Bengals a few weeks ago. Cleveland is desperate and coming off a bye. Upset of the week.

Browns 24, Giants 22

4 To Score

1. Jaguars (+3.5) at Broncos. Seems like a spot where the Jags normally come through.
2. Patriots (+5.5) at Chargers. Even minus Brady, I always feel pretty good taking the Pats and the points.
3. Browns (+7) vs. Giants. Going with the underdog theme this week.
4. Colts (-5) vs. Ravens. Don't trust the Ravens offense at all.

NFL Week Five Picks, Pats, and Apologies

Last Week: 9-4
Season: 40-20
Record Picking Redskins Games: 3-1
Against the Spread: 7-8
Lock of the Week: 2-2

Last Week’s Pats: Had a really good read on the Falcons-Panthers game; both straight up and against the spread. I should have made that my lock of the week…Also correctly predicted the Jags to win a close game over Houston, but for the Texans to cover the number.

Last Week’s Apologies: Going to start with the Bucs. Picked against them the past two weeks and was burned each time. I’m still not overly impressed with the talent on that squad, but they are well coached, and very tough. I am going to have to start respecting them a bit more in my picks. I also did not see the Chiefs-Broncos game coming at all. That game showed me that as good as the Broncos offense may be, their defense is nowhere near contending level. And of course, I predicted my Redskins to lose by 17 in Dallas. But I’ll take that egg on my face any day of the week.

This Week’s Picks:

Tennessee at Baltimore: Really tough game to call here. The Titans are the better team, but they have some wiggle room at 4-0 and the Ravens were pretty impressive in their Monday Night loss in Pittsburgh. My gut actually tells me to go with the Ravens here, but I think the Titans may be the type of team that doesn’t succumb to trends. If you beat them, you will beat them because you are the better team.

Titans 17, Ravens 13

Seattle at New York Giants: I’ve been saying since day 1 that the Seahawks’ window has closed. That team is done. Although, I am surprised that their normally tough defense has been shredded so far this year. I would say the Bye week helps Seattle, but the Giants had that luxury as well. Missing Plaxico Burress for this game may slow down the Giants offense this week, but I do not see it costing them the game.

Giants 23, Seahawks 17

Washington at Philadelphia: No one likes to admit these things, but this is a much more important game for Philly than it is for Washington. By winning in Dallas last week, the Redskins accomplished at least a split of this difficult road test—a win on Sunday would be gravy for the Redskins and it would put the Eagles in a desperate situation in the toughest division in football. I think the Redskins are the better team and will finish ahead of the Eagles when it’s said and done, but I don’t see them burying Philly quite yet.

Eagles 23, Redskins 20

San Diego at Miami: The Chargers were reeling after their 0-2 start, but the schedule has cooperated. Good teams should beat the Jets at home and back to back trips to Oakland and Miami are not particularly daunting. Was the offensive explosion we saw from Miami in New England a sign of things to come, or an aberration? Until I see it again, I’m leaning towards the latter. I do think the Dolphins will keep it close, but not close enough.

Chargers 27, Dolphins 17

Chicago at Detroit: This game isn’t as black and white as it looks on paper. I’d steer clear of this one if I was a gambling man. At some point, the Lions MUST get off to a better start in a game, and when that happens, their offense has just enough talent to keep it close—especially at home. I still can’t pick that squad to win a game, but it wouldn’t surprise me in the least if they pulled off the upset this week.

Bears 21, Lions 19

Atlanta at Green Bay: It sounds as if Aaron Rodgers will be ready to go. Assuming he is, I like Green Bay big. If he doesn’t play, I’ll still take the Packers defense to shut down the Falcons offense, but the game will be much closer. For my score prediction, I’ll split the difference.

Packers 24, Falcons 14

Indianapolis at Houston: Kind of a desperate game for both teams. The Texans had high hopes entering the year, but a loss on Sunday will put them at 0-4 and will virtually eliminate them from contention. The Colts have enough talent and experience to bounce back from a potential 1-3 start, but it certainly would not be a good thing—especially if the Titans find themselves at 5-0 after this week. I see an entertaining game, with the Colts pulling it out late.

Colts 31, Texans 27

Kansas City at Carolina: The Chiefs won’t find the going as easy this week against the Panthers defense. Easiest straight up game on the board.

Panthers 26, Chiefs 10

Tampa Bay at Denver: I said in my “Apologies” section that I needed to start respecting the Bucs more in my weeks. Well, we might have to wait until next week. As bad as the Denver defense is, I do think their offense is legit. And I think home field puts them over the top this week.

Broncos 27, Bucs 20

Buffalo at Arizona: I love the Cardinals this week. Buffalo is a very solid team, but I think they have played at least slightly over their heads so far; and they’ve also beaten up on some poor teams in three of their four wins. The Cardinals are not looking good after an 0-2 road trip, but I see them rebounding at home.

Cardinals 28, Bills 17

New England at San Francisco: I’m still drinking the Kool Aid. I still think the Patriots will find a way to make some noise in the AFC this year and I still think their offense will eventually cause problems for opponents. It will be nothing like what we saw last year, but I still very much respect their staff. I have a feeling we’ll see a different team this week.

Patriots 29, 49ers 20

Cincinnati at Dallas: Earlier I said the Panthers game was the easiest straight up game of the week. Scratch that.

Cowboys 42, Bengals 21

Pittsburgh at Jacksonville: I don’t know if you could possibly feel any worse about your team after a win than Pittsburgh must feel right now. A horrid offensive line and key injuries to their backfield spell big trouble on the road this week.

Jaguars 23, Steelers 13

Minnesota at New Orleans: Close to a must-win for the Vikings if they have any plans on contending in the NFC this year. I’m still waiting for Adrian Peterson to have a breakout game—and Monday Night against a shaky Saints defense seems like a good spot. Going with the upset here.

Vikings 30, Saints 27

4 To Score

1. Cardinals (+1.5) vs. the Bills. I’ve done really well picking the Cardinals against the spread over the past two years. They are a different team at home. They say “never bet the due,” but Buffalo is due.
2. Patriots (+3) at 49ers. Again, perhaps I’m brainwashed by the Patriot Machine, but I really like New England to bounce back this week.
3. Panthers (-9.5) vs. the Chiefs. I’m 2 for 2 picking the Panthers in this section so far this year. I feel good about going 3-0.
4. Redskins (+5) at Eagles. I like the Eagles to win, so that makes this somewhat of a shaky bet, but this is a series that historically produces very good close games.