NFL Week One Picks, Pats, and Apologies

PPA is back for the 4th season in a row! Each week in this column, I provide picks for that upcoming week's NFL games, as well as "pats" on the back for the ones I got right, and "apologies" for the ones I blew.

Last year, per request, I added an Against the Spread feature and a Lock of the Week. Both of those elements return in 2008.

Normally, there are no "pats" or "apologies" in week one for obvious reasons. But I feel I owe an apology to the world for my final sentence from the final entry from this column last year. In regards to Super Bowl XLII, I prophetically stated, "if you are planning this week's Super Bowl party around the assumption that this game will be a classic in the 4th quarter.....I'd rethink those plans."

I certainly hope no one took my advice. Now that I've completely ruined my own credibility before the year even starts.....on with the picks! First a quick review of year's past:

2005

Regular Season: 163-91
Playoffs: 6-5 (correctly picked Super Bowl)
Record Picking Redskins Games (including playoffs): 14-4

2006

Regular Season: 146-110
Playoffs: 8-3 (correctly picked Super Bowl)
Record Picking Redskins Games: 8-8

2007

Regular Season: 166-90
Playoffs: 4-7 (missed Super Bowl)
Record Picking Redskins Games (including playoffs): 10-7
ATS: 29-33-2
Lock of the Week: 10-6

This Week's Picks:

Washington at New York Giants: Three weeks ago, I had this game pegged as a potential week one upset. The Giants are going to be hard pressed to match their emotional ending to last season, and Washington is the last team to beat the Giants in a game that mattered. But the Redskins offense has looked lost and disjointed in their final pre-season games. This is not necessarily cause for panic, but these struggles make it impossible for me to pick them to win a road game on a such a huge stage.

Giants 27, Redskins 17

Tampa Bay at New Orleans: This one is hard to predict for the simple fact that we aren't sure exactly where this game will wind up being played. With Hurricane Gustav bearing down on the area, there have been some rumblings that this game could be moved to Tampa, and the teams will simply swap home dates for their series this year. Good news is that either way, I like New Orleans to come out on top. If this game is in New Orleans, I could see the Saints running away with it; if it's in Tampa, the Saints will win a close one. For my score prediction, I'll split the difference.

Saints 24, Bucs 17

St. Louis at Philadelphia: One of the easier games to call this week. The Rams are in a world of hurt-- I see little hope for them turning things around coming off of their miserable season last year. Not sure the Eagles are the type of team that is going to rout people this year, but I do not see St. Louis staying close in the 4th quarter.

Eagles 28, Rams 16

New York Jets at Miami: Well, this game is certainly much "sexier" than it looked when the schedule came out. Brett Favre's debut in green and white should draw a ton of attention to this match-up, but perhaps no one will be more motivated to put on a show than Dolphins QB Chad Pennington. I think this one is very close, but the Dolphins just don't have to enough to win at the end.

Jets 23, Dolphins 20

Kansas City at New England: Pretty much a joke. As big of a mismatch as there is in the NFL.

Patriots 35, Chiefs 13

Houston at Pittsburgh: So far, no surprises. Well, that ends in Pittsburgh. I'm not going with the Texans because I think the Steelers will take them lightly. I'm not going with the Texans to be cute. I'm going with the Texans because I think when this season is over, they will prove to be the superior team.

Texans 24, Steelers 22

Cincinnati at Baltimore: Yawner of the week. Toss a coin. I'll go with Carson Palmer to pull one out for the Bengals. The Ravens QB situation remains an absolute sham.

Bengals 19, Ravens 16

Detroit at Atlanta: Yawner of the week Part II. Neither of these teams is going to compete for anything this year, but I definitely think Detroit is the better squad. However, something's been telling me all week that Atlanta gets the victory here-- it may be one of their few chances to say that in 2008.

Falcons 28, Lions 27

Seattle at Buffalo: This one could be very, very ugly. Two good defenses. Two offenses with major question marks. Can Trent Edwards generate a passing game for the Bills? Will anybody be able to catch the ball for the Seahawks? I'm looking for a low scoring affair with either team having an equal chance to win. I'll take the experience over the homefield.

Seahawks 14, Bills 10

Jacksonville at Tennessee: Pivotal game in the NFC South-- especially for the home team. I'm just not buying the Titan offense at this point. And I'm sold that David Garrard is at least an above average NFL QB. Look for the Jags to really frustrate Vince Young.

Jaguars 20, Titans 16

Dallas at Cleveland: Cleveland was absolutely brutal in the pre-season. Their defense was questionable in the first place and they did nothing to calm the worries of Browns fans in the exhibition games. More troubling, however, could be the fact that the Brown's high flying offensive attack looked inept. Even with the Browns firing on all cylinders, Dallas might be able to beat them on the road. With the way the look entering the season? I see little chance.

Cowboys 34, Browns 21

Carolina at San Diego: If you are looking for a "cute" pick to surprise your friends with, don't look any further than San Diego. I think Carolina is a major player in the NFC this year, and they could easily win this game. As a matter of fact, if Steve Smith was playing, I would pick them to win. As it stands, I say they give the Chargers all they want, but come up a bit short.

Chargers 23, Panthers 20

Arizona at San Francisco: A rematch of the opening game from last season, where Matt Leinert couldn't get out of his own way and the 49ers hung on for a victory. With Kurt Warner at the helm, I do not see a repeat performance.

Cardinals 31, 49ers 17

Chicago at Indianapolis: I have this gut feeling that the Bears offense won't be quite as disgusting as many people expect. I also have this gut feeling that their defense is slipping...fast. The Colts will set off some fireworks in their new building.

Colts 30, Bears 20

Minnesota at Green Bay: I'm picking the Packers to go to the Super Bowl, so I suppose it would stand to reason that I would pick them to win this game. I am a believer in Aaron Rodgers. I am not a believer in Tarvaris Jackson. This has the makings of one of the better games of the week.

Packers 27, Vikings 23

Denver at Oakland: Total toss-up. Denver is the better team, but I'm not sure by how much. Homefield and a Monday Night opener atmosphere will be on Oakland's side. Gonna go ahead and pick another mild upset here. Don't see either of these teams doing much in 2008.

Raiders 21, Broncos 19

4 To Score

Just like last season, the first game on this list every week will be considered the "Lock of the Week."

1. Panthers (+10) at Chargers. As I mentioned, I like the Panthers to make noise this year, and I see their defense rebounding from a down year. Ten points is a lot for week one. Really confident that Vegas missed the mark on this one.

2. Texans (+7) at Steelers. Picking the Texans to win outright, so I love my chances with the 7 points.

3. Cardinals (-2.5) at 49ers. Warner stabalizes the Cardinals. Not sure what the plan is in San Francisco.

4. Patriots (-16.5) against the Chiefs. It's a ton of points, but this could be a match-up between the best and the worst the NFL has to offer.

2008 NFL Predictions

NFL Predictions are a dime and dozen, and most of them turn out to be inaccurate and completely meaningless. But they’re fun. So, why not?

In the end, it all boils down to hoisting the Lombardi Trophy in February. The NFL boasts of unparalleled parity this decade, but if you look closely enough, you can still pick out the haves and the have-nots.

And that is my goal with these predictions. I’ve created several categories. Each category rates a team’s chances to win the Super Bowl. Now, don’t get confused, and don’t email me about my lunacy—there are some teams that I rank as having a better chance to win the Super Bowl, but actually having a worse record than a competing team. My way of thinking is that simply because you win your division, you don’t have a better chance to win the Super Bowl than a wild card team. There are also several teams that have a greater downside, yet a greater upside than some middling teams. The Categories:

0% Chance. Literally. Absolutely Impossible. Can’t Happen.


Miami Dolphins: Bill Parcells and company have just begun a total rebuild project. Coming off a 1-15 season, the Dolphins obviously have nowhere to go but up, but “up” won’t be very far in 2008.

Baltimore Ravens: Their struggles finding a quarterback are almost mind boggling. It’s a week before the season starts, and I’m not sure they have a clue who is going to be under center week one. Further, I’m not sure they care. The defense is no longer even close to being capable of carrying this team.

Atlanta Falcons: I like what the front office is doing. I think they had a good draft, and I’m a big Matt Ryan fan. But like all rookie QB’s, he is going to have to take his medicine, and the personnel around him isn’t up to snuff either.

San Francisco 49ers: If this isn’t rock bottom for the 49ers, I don’t know what is. The first overall pick in the draft just got beat out by a journeyman named O’Sullivan. Ouch.

St. Louis Rams: Both lines are in the process of being rebuilt. The skill position players are still above average, but they don’t have the depth in that area that they’ve had in the past. They won’t be quite as miserable as they were last year, but they aren’t going to be competing for anything either.

Kansas City Chiefs: I like the plan. Draft, draft, draft. But KC has a long, long, long way to go. Brodie Croyle is not the answer.

Oakland Raiders: I think there’s a little more talent here than people realize. But how can I say this politely? I think Jamarcus Russell was an awful pick. I think he is going to be a total bust and will stunt the growth of the rest of the offense.

They Should Really be in the 0% Category, but I’ll be Nice and give them a 0.5% Chance


Buffalo Bills: The Bills are significantly better than all of the teams they are lumped with here. And they may very well be better than a few teams I rank ahead of them. But this team lacks the necessary offensive firepower to have any chance at winning a championship.

Cincinnati Bengals: I am a huge Carson Palmer fan, and he alone makes them semi-respectable. But Marvin Lewis has done a poor job since their playoff run in 2005. Quite simply, he has failed at his greatest strength—building a defense. He is the defensive version of Brian Billick.

Detroit Lions: Defense should be improved, but they are spinning their wheels with Jon Kitna.

Chicago Bears: I actually think the Bears may move the ball a bit better than people expect this year. Kyle Orton was the correct choice at QB. But the Bears defense fell off big time in 2007, and I was not impressed watching them this pre-season. That unit looks like a shell of the squad that led them to the Super Bowl two years ago.

Only In Dreams….But Sometimes Dreams Come True


New York Jets: Since the last time he played in a Super Bowl, Brett Favre is 3-6 in the post-season with 14 TD’s and 18 INT’s. Making the playoffs in the AFC is a tall order, and even if the Jets squeeze in, they won’t last long.

Cleveland Browns: I just can’t decide if last year’s offensive explosion was a fluke. The Browns have been horrid in the pre-season. I am going to give them the benefit of the doubt in my official predictions, but the chances of this team making noise in the playoffs are very slim.

Tampa Bay Bucs: Jeff Garcia is a great story, and a solid QB. But his upside is tapped out. He is extremely limited, and as long as he is the QB, Tampa Bay won’t be able to hang with the big boys. Of course, if they had an all-time great defense like they did in 2002, I’d give them a much better shot, but their current unit is very good, not great.

Tennessee Titans: The clock is ticking for Vince Young. Why does Tennessee refuse to get him any weapons on the outside?

Denver Broncos: This seems to be an organization in a funk of mediocrity. Jay Cutler looks very promising. The rest of the roster looks very middling.

Houston Texans: Houston has an extremely good chance to make the playoffs this year—a better chance than 99% of prognosticators will give them. But if they do make the playoffs, it will be a short visit. A team headed in the right direction though.

Highly Unlikely, But if Everything Falls Into Place……


Philadelphia Eagles: Very overrated team heading into the season. The predictions of 12-4 or better are way off base. The Eagles front seven on defense is unproven at best. And once again, Brian Westbrook will be the only major weapon for Donovan McNabb to utilize. I could be totally wrong, but I think the Andy Reid/McNabb Eagles had their window…and then it closed. Still a highly competitive team, but not a major threat.

Washington Redskins: Very tough team to read. Lots of talent, but also lots of question marks. If Jason Campbell doesn’t make strides this year, then Washington is probably looking at starting over at QB, and essentially starting over, period. But if Jim Zorn can pull the right strings with Campbell, the Redskins have enough around him to compete.

Pittsburgh Steelers: Curious off-season for the Steelers. Also, an unfamiliar look for this team. The Steelers have always prided themselves on dominating games upfront on both sides of the ball, but this current team is based on finesse. The offensive line was a problem last year and Pittsburgh did little to address it. The defense put up good numbers last year, but they were unable to get a key stop in the playoffs against Jacksonville. Not totally sold on this unit.

Minnesota Vikings: There is something about the Vikings OTHER than Tavaris Jackson that gives me pause. Maybe it’s Brad Childress? For some reason, I just see this being a team that falls short of the hype every year.

Arizona Cardinals: Yes, if things fall into place, Arizona could be in the Super Bowl. No, I’m not on crack. Slowly, they’ve built a quality offensive line and with Kurt Warner running the show from the beginning, the Cardinals have a great chance to challenge Seattle in the NFC West.

Seattle Seahawks: This team reminds me a bit of the Eagles. The window was there…they came close, and now it’s shut. The defense continues to get better, but the offense is beginning to regress.

A Much Better Chance Than You Think


Green Bay Packers: Lost amidst the Favre Soap Opera was the fact that GM Ted Thompson has done a remarkable job building a solid young core in Green Bay. Favre was excellent in the regular season last year, but he was given entirely too much credit for the Packers 13-3 record. Thompson has assembled a good team—and they should only get better. No one will ever make Packers fans “forget” Favre, but by mid-season, Aaron Rodgers will have them wondering what they were so upset about.

Carolina Panthers: This is a vote for John Fox. The man is a very good coach. The past two years have been a disappointment in Carolina, but Fox didn’t forget how to coach. They’ve added new pieces, the defense looks much stronger, and Jake Delhomme is healthy. A dark horse Super Bowl contender.

New Orleans Saints: Drew Brees is the real deal. If the Saints can find their running game, they may very well boast the best offense in football—at least one that can compete with the Patriots. And when you have those kinds of weapons, you are a threat to win the NFC.

New York Giants: Funny that we have to find them in this category, seeing they are defending champs. But few people are paying much attention. Unfortunately for the Giants, the injury to Osi Umenyiora will have a crippling effect on their dominant defensive front. If he was healthy, I’d put the Giants in an even higher category. The big question is whether or not Eli Manning got lucky last year or if he came of age. I tend to think it was the latter.

If They Can Survive Each Other….


Indianapolis Colts: Still a beast. Peyton Manning is still money in the bank, and if Dwight Freeney is healthy, the Colts defense is top tier. Tony Dungy knows what he’s doing—don’t expect much of regression from the Colts.

Jacksonville Jaguars: The Colts are their biggest hurdle towards the next level. If the Jags want to make a serious Super Bowl run, they will need to secure playoff games at home. In order to do that, they must find a way to beat the Colts in the South. Should be a entertaining season-long race.

If Coaching Didn’t Matter………

The next two teams have head coaches that have combined for 16 seasons at the helm of various teams. In those 16 seasons, they have combined for a total of 3 playoff victories.

Dallas Cowboys: You can make a strong argument that Dallas is more talented than New England. The Cowboys are loaded- everywhere. There is not an obvious weak point on the team, other than perhaps the secondary, which could get a major boost from Adam Jones. Dallas simply fell apart in the 4th quarter of their playoff loss to the Giants. Dallas beat the Giants twice during the regular season and at points in that playoff game, they moved the ball at will. But when gut check time arrived, the Giants responded, the Cowboys folded. The Cowboys only obstacle between now and the Super Bowl is themselves. But that may prove to be too much.

San Diego Chargers: Norv Turner exorcised some demons last year when the Chargers went into Indianapolis and beat the Colts in the playoffs. And they gave the Patriots a decent game in the AFC Championship despite injuries to significant offensive players. However, Turner has a long way to go before he can exorcise all of his head coaching demons. I, for one, still have my doubts.

A League of Their Own


New England Patriots: 18-1. People can focus on the “1” all the want, but the “18” is a clear sign to me that New England will be right back where they were in 2007. Maybe going undefeated won’t be as paramount to them, but finishing the big game will be. I see absolutely no logical reason why the Patriots shouldn’t be the overwhelming favorites to win Super Bowl XLIII.

Predictions:

AFC East

New England Patriots 13-3
New York Jets 8-8
Buffalo Bills 8-8
Miami Dolphins 5-11

AFC North

Cleveland Browns 9-7
Pittsburgh Steelers 9-7
Cincinnati Bengals 7-9
Baltimore Ravens 3-13

AFC South

Indianapolis Colts 11-5
Jacksonville Jaguars 11-5
Houston Texans 9-7
Tennessee Titans 7-9

AFC West

San Diego Chargers 11-5
Denver Broncos 8-8
Oakland Raiders 6-10
Kansas City Chiefs 4-12

Division Winners (in order): Patriots, Chargers, Colts, Browns
Wild Cards (in order): Jaguars, Texans

Playoffs

Colts over Texans
Jaguars over Browns

Patriots over Jaguars
Colts over Chargers

Patriots over Colts



NFC East

Dallas Cowboys 12-4
New York Giants 9-7
Philadelphia Eagles 9-7
Washington Redskins 8-8

NFC North

Green Bay Packers 10-6
Minnesota Vikings 9-7
Detroit Lions 7-9
Chicago Bears 6-10

NFC South

Carolina Panthers 10-6
New Orleans Saints 10-6
Tampa Bay Bucs 7-9
Atlanta Falcons 3-13

NFC West

Arizona Cardinals 9-7
Seattle Seahawks 8-8
San Francisco 49ers 5-11
St. Louis Rams 5-11

Division Winners (in order): Cowboys, Panthers, Packers, Cardinals
Wild Cards (in order): Saints, Giants

Playoffs

Packers over Giants
Saints over Cardinals

Saints over Cowboys
Packers over Panthers

Packers over Saints


Super Bowl XLIII

New England 38
Green Bay 17

5 Ways to Fix College Football Without Fixing It (Predictions)

College football is very popular. Not nearly as popular as the NFL (what is these days?), but I think University Presidents are pretty happy with their bank accounts when it comes to the gridiron. No complaints from them. Thus, the root of the problem.

Just because something makes money doesn’t mean it isn’t in need of repair. Just because a stadium gets sold out to watch a mismatched massacre, doesn’t mean it’s a good product. And just because they call it a “Bowl Game” or even a “BCS” game doesn’t mean it really has significance.

Yes, college football is entertaining. It always has been, and most likely, always will be. But college football is not all that it can be. It is by far the most flawed of all the major college and pro sports. A well-run sport should crescendo or peak during the post-season. College football still relies on mid-season rivalries and traditional match-ups to stir interest. The post-season is a giant letdown.

The only solution to this obvious problem is a playoff system. It can be done, if the powers that be would simply remove their heads from their posteriors, put “old school” thinking aside, and figure out a way to improve the sport, while still lining their pockets. It can be done. Easily. But the college football playoff argument is the very definition of beating a dead horse. Has any sportswriter in American not given their personal solution to this problem?

With that in mind, I am going to narrow my focus and present five ways to improve college football without going to a playoff system. Please keep in mind that nothing besides a playoff will fix this archaic system. However, these suggestions may make the system a tad less asinine.

Eliminate Pre-Season Polls: Are we talking about this season? Last season? Thirty seasons ago? When it comes to the polls, I have no idea. In my estimation, a poll should reflect only the current season. It should not take history into account, whether it be recent or ancient. Anointing a team prior to the season is not only silly, it’s unfair. Last year, Michigan began the season highly ranked. They lost their first game to a D1-AA school. The next week, even though they dropped in the polls, they were still ranked. So, Michigan was 0-1 with a home loss to non D-1 school, and they were still ranked in the Top 25? That’s just stupid. The rankings create a certain caste system, where teams can only gradually move up or move down. If a non-BCS school doesn’t start the season ranked in the Top 15 or so, they can kiss their chances of a National Championship goodbye. If a team starts the season ranked #1, they can probably afford two losses, whereas a team that starts the season ranked #17 can probably only afford one loss. The first poll should not be released until sometime in early-mid October.

Eliminate the Coaches Poll: I wonder how much time Nick Saban of Alabama spends watching game film of Rutgers? I wonder if Butch Davis at North Carolina is taping the Washington State game this week? College football coaches are totally wrapped up in their own little world of their team, their conference, and their next opponent. I can say with all honesty, that I probably watch a whole lot more Pac 10, Big 10, and SEC football than Mike Leach of Texas Tech does during the season. You see, on Saturday’s, Mike Leach, and most other head coaches are kind of busy. They aren’t flipping channels. They are standing on the sidelines, riding buses, and then breaking down their own game film. I don’t think Rich Rodriguez is too concerned with the outcome of the BYU-Utah game. Yet, we insist that these men vote on how to rank teams across the country. Not only do they lack information, there is also an obvious conflict of interest. Why wouldn’t you rank teams in your conference higher? Why wouldn’t there be a bias? The media is far from perfect, but the AP poll is a much more objective way to generate a poll.

Drastically Reduce the Number of Bowl Games: There are 119 D-1 teams. There are now 34 Bowl Games. That’s a total of 68 teams participating in Bowls. That leaves 51 teams at home. If 68 teams get to do something, and 51 do not, which group should feel more special? Many publications will insist that a coach is on the hot seat and that he must “make a Bowl Game” to save his job. Heck, if I was an Athletic Director, I might stipulate that not making a Bowl Game is grounds for immediate dismissal. If you don’t make a Bowl Game nowadays, you are a terrible, terrible football team.

Let’s take an average college football program (Oklahoma State) and figure out what it will take for them to be eligible for a Bowl Game this year. In order for OSU to qualify for a Bowl, they need to win 6 of their 12 games. By beating 6 of these teams: Washington State, Houston, Missouri State, Troy, Baylor, and Iowa St., Colorado, and Texas A+M, OSU will go Bowling. Aside from Colorado, none of those teams will most likely be ranked in the top 70 teams in the country this year. So basically, OSU can lose all of their games against decent competition, and still get a payday. What a great accomplishment!

Make Every Conference Play a Championship Game: If all of the BCS conferences have to play under the same system, then why in the world do certain teams have a tougher/longer road? The Pac 10, Big 10, and Big East do not play a conference championship game, while the remaining BCS conferences all do. In college football, less is more. Meaning the fewer games you play, the better chance you have of not losing, which equals a greater chance to compete for the National Title. We’ll call this the “Ohio State Way.” The Buckeyes cruise through the weak Big 10 every season and find themselves in the big game, usually, “just because.” Forcing these three conferences to adopt a Title Game would at least level the playing field a bit.

Shorten the Time Between the End of the Season and the Bowls: I think Ohio St. had two and a half years in between their final game of the season last year and the BCS Title Game. It had been so long since we last saw them play, that I’m not sure anyone even remembered, or cared. College Football makes us wait over a month to see the Championship Game—and by that time the NFL playoffs have started, and the college game gets cast aside.

January 1st should be the latest a college football game is ever played. I understand that the networks want to spread the games out, and they want to avoid putting too many games on during the holidays. But college football might need to take a small hit in the wallet on this one and insist that games never be played beyond the 1st. You can still play all of your ridiculous minor bowl games leading up to the BCS games—just play them earlier, and make many of them double-headers for television. You could then have a quadruple-header of BCS games on New Year’s Day—with the title game in primetime. The Bowl system is silly, but if it’s going to be in place, then they might as well capitalize on the tradition of New Year’s Day being a big day for the sport.

Quick Predictions:

SEC: Florida over Alabama in the Title Game: Georgia is formidable, but I wonder if they are over-hyped. Tim Tebow returns and I think Florida beats the Bulldogs this year and wins the East. The West is more wide-open, and I’ll roll the dice on Alabama squeezing by.
Keep an Eye On: Tennessee: Phillip Fulmer is squarely on the hot seat, and I have a feeling he’ll find a way to save his job this year.

Big 12: Oklahoma over Missouri in the Title Game: I’m simply not a believer that Mizzou is ready to beat a program like OU in a game with major significance.
Keep any Eye On: Texas Tech. This may be another team getting a bit over-hyped in the pre-season, but the first part of their schedule is ridiculously easy, which of course means they will steadily climb in the polls. They could have the biggest game in the program’s history late in the year in Norman.

ACC: Clemson over North Carolina in the Title Game: Pretty weak conference overall. Clemson would be a middling team in the Big 12, SEC, or even Pac 10. I’ll go with Butch Davis to have a surprisingly good season at UNC.
Keep an Eye On: No one. Like I said, the ACC is weak.

Pac 10: USC will run away with this conference in a landslide.
Keep an Eye On: Oregon was great last year until Dennis Dixon went down. Now, they think they have a QB that can run their spread offense again.

Big 10: Ohio St. by default.
Keep an Eye On: Wisconsin is the only other team in the conference that should garner any serious respect.

Big East: West Virginia.
Keep an Eye On: South Florida may have gotten too much, too fast last year before they crashed and burned. But there is still a bunch of talent there, and a very solid returning QB.

National Championship Game: USC over Oklahoma. Not sure if these are the two best teams in the country or not, but I like their respective roads to the BCS Title Game. OU needs to prove themselves on a national stage before I can be confident picking them to win a game of this magnitude.

What about the remaining 50+ D-1 Teams? Well, the BCS doesn’t give them the time of day, so why should I?