NFL Championship Weekend Picks, Pats, and Apologies

Last Week: 2-2
Playoffs: 3-5
Regular Season: 166-90
Record Picking Redskins Games (including playoffs): 10-7
Against the Spread: 29-33-2
Lock of the Week (ATS): 10-6

It’s been a rough start to my playoff-picking season. I started off 2-0 last week, but missed badly on both of the Sunday games. Only three more attempts to right the ship this year.

San Diego at New England: It seems as if a write-up for a Championship Game should be in-depth and drawn out. But I simply can’t find a way to make this game seem compelling. Even if the Chargers were 100% healthy, I would expect New England to destroy them. I see this Sunday as a coronation of sorts for the Patriots season. Sorry, San Diego, it just isn’t going to happen. I will be extremely surprised if the Chargers are even within 10 points at the half.

Patriots 41, Chargers 17

New York Giants at Green Bay: Now this game holds much more intrigue than the AFC contest. Having said that, despite your feelings about the Cowboys, I do sense a certain disappointment that we won’t get to see the Packers head to Dallas this week for what would have been an extremely interesting match-up. But a Championship Game at Lambeau Field is certainly nothing to sneeze at.

The Giants come into this game on fire. Their road dominance is becoming historic, and many pundits and fans see New York pulling off the upset this week and punching their ticket to Super Bowl XLII. While I acknowledge the Giants hot streak and admire the way their defense shut down Tony Romo and Dallas, I just can’t quite see them pulling off a third playoff road win in a row. The 2005 Steelers did it—but their run ended in Denver, against a team led by Jake Plummer. The Giants, on the other hand, head to Green Bay, against a legend having a brilliant season.

If you believe in karma, symmetry, poetry, or anything of the like, then it just makes sense that Brett Favre and the underdog Packers will be facing Tom Brady and the mighty Patriots in two weeks at the Super Bowl. The Giants will keep it close, but their offense will have a hard time moving the ball consistently against the underrated Packers defense. Look for the Packers to pull away late and for the Favre-Brady Super Bowl hype to start about three minutes later.

Packers 24, Giants 14

Saying Goodbye to Joe

I wrote the following four years ago upon learning that Joe Gibbs was returning to coach the Redskins after an 11 year absence:

“The passion is back. Joe came back to restore HIS fans. He came back to restore HIS team. Check that, he came back to restore OUR team.”

Now, he’s walking away…again. This time, there will be no return.

So, the big question now becomes whether or not Joe Gibbs was a success the second time around?

If we’re talking about Super Bowl trophies, then no, Joe Gibbs did not succeed. He didn’t even win a division title. He did not come anywhere close to attaining the success on the field that he had during his first run. Perhaps some will actually remember his second stint as a failure.

I feel sorry for those people.

Context.

Everything must be taken into context.

The Redskins were an embarrassing wreck four years ago. They had made the playoffs just once in eleven seasons. Their roster was depleted, their efforts were questionable, their leadership was absent, and the fanbase was sullen, angry, and most importantly, hopeless.

And that is when great leaders step up. When all hope is lost.

The day before he arrived, the Redskins were a joke. Now, the day he leaves, the Redskins are once again a proud organization with a proud group of fans.

Honestly, with that being the case, does anything else really matter? If you had lost all hope as a fan, if the games were no longer fun… and now the excitement and passion has returned….does anything else really matter?

There are many coaches who probably could have come into Washington and turned things around on the field. Several may have won more games. But I don’t think there was anyone who could have rekindled the “Redskins Spirit” like Joe did.

Many people believe that “walking out on top” means you have to finish first. But this year, Joe showed us all what it truly means to go out a winner. Under the most adverse, unlucky, and tragic circumstances as any team in league history has ever faced, Joe rallied a team, and a fanbase to an improbable playoff run. Along the way, much healing was done for a wide array of people.

Joe Gibbs is a man of deep faith who manages to convey that faith to others without being hostile or condemning. He can show people the way without forcing them through the door. Joe Gibbs is a man of great humility; a man who blamed himself personally for every loss and never publicly criticized a player or coach, even when it was clear criticism would have been warranted.

The first time he retired, he left because he felt he was neglecting his family. He was routinely logging 18 hour days and spending the night at Redskins Park. When he came back four years ago, he thought he would be able to do it differently. In his press conference yesterday, he admitted he was unable to scale back the hours, the passion, or the stress. In the end, he felt that he once again needed to be closer to family. At 67 years old, there will not be a third tour of duty. Joe Gibbs will not be able to “save” the Redskins ever again.

As fans, all we can hope is that the foundation he laid will pave the way for a successful future. We can hope that he changed the mentality of the organization. We can hope that both Joe Gibbs the coach and Joe Gibbs the man rubbed off on everyone who remains involved with the Redskins.

Obviously, the big question swirling in Redskinsland right now completely revolves around who will take over for Gibbs. At this point, I can honestly say that I don’t really care. I am feeling so melancholy about Gibbs’ departure that it’s hard for me to focus on next season and beyond. All I know is that next year, Joe won’t be on the sidelines, and that has me feeling a bit down. I’m wondering if the wins will be as sweet, or if the losses will be as painful now that Joe has gone. What do you do when the savior leaves?

Having said that, let me add one note of caution to both the Redskins’ brass and my fellow fans: Believing that someone “in house” can come right in and pick up where Joe left off is a dangerous proposition. The Redskins should hire the best candidate for the long haul, regardless of where he may be right now. Joe was the glue that held the organization together during the darkest hours of 2007. Now, the glue is gone.

There is a sentiment to try and capture this current passion the Redskins experienced—many feel the only way to do that is to keep this core together and leave things as intact as possible. That is certainly the easiest way to go. It’s probably the safest and would give fans the most comfort headed into next year.

But remember this- there is only one Joe Gibbs. He was the right man, at the right time, in the right situation. Now, the Redskins should be focused on finding the right man for the next five to ten years, not just the comfortable choice.

Joe Gibbs made Redskins football fun again. He made it relevant again. He rekindled the spirit of a rabid fanbase. He led them through the toughest period in franchise history. He was the idol and hero of many fans who “grew up” with him during his first stint. And now, he is the idol and hero of a younger generation as well. Funny how a simple football coach can leave such a positive impact on everyone he touches.

Mysterious ways indeed.

Thanks Joe.

Football Fairy Tale

There was a moment. A Disney moment.

After trailing 13-0 to start the 4th quarter, the Washington Redskins scored two touchdowns in less than two minutes to take a 14-13 lead. Then, on the ensuing kickoff, the ball bounced over the head of the Seattle return man, and nestled in the arms of a Redskins player. It was a play you see maybe once every ten years. For the Redskins, it occurred during the 4th quarter of a one-point game in the playoffs.

It was at that moment, that my hope gave way to belief.

After enduring countless injuries, media criticism of our beloved coach, a 5-7 start to the season, and most importantly, the murder of our best player, it appeared as if 2007 would simply be an ugly black mark in the Redskins history book.

But something happened over the final four games of the season. A 36 year old quarterback, who hadn’t started a game in over 10 years, led us to four straight victories. Everywhere you looked, there were “signs” of the fallen Sean Taylor. The team was playing for him, and in many ways, it appeared he was playing through them. With each win, the emotion boiled and the Disney-like ending seemed more plausible.

Then, there was that kickoff. I had done my best to keep my hopes and dreams in check. After all, how much more could this team give? But when we recovered that kick, I suddenly had visions of playing the undefeated Patriots in the Super Bowl. What a story that would have been. The writers at Disney wouldn’t have even had to work for that one.

But then, almost as suddenly as it had started, the Disney script was torn to shreds. The Redskins failed to score a touchdown on that possession, and in what proved to be a complete momentum killer, they missed a short field goal. We still held the lead, but something had changed. All of a sudden, I realized this was the real world—not Disneyland, and that the Redskins were playing an actual NFL team, on the road, in the playoffs. The Seattle players and fans weren’t overly interested in our fairy-tale ending.

We held on as long as we could. We held that slim lead with just over 6:00 minutes to play. But that was it. Everything unraveled at the end, and we lost 35-14, in a game where the final score truly did not indicate the type of game we had just witnessed.

The season ended. And with it, so did the dreams of the Disney ending. Todd Collins would not be hoisting the Super Bowl MVP trophy to the rafters as Tom Brady trudged off the field. The Redskins would not be pointing skyward to their fallen teammate as the final seconds ticked off the clock. In other words, no need to call Disney. It was just another 9-7 team losing a road playoff game in the first round. Happens every year.

Or does it?

That’s the thing about endings. Just because it wasn’t as we hoped, it doesn’t mean it didn’t matter. It doesn’t mean it didn’t have an impact. It doesn’t mean that it didn’t change things.

For me, as a fan, the 2007 Washington Redskins will always be one of my favorites. From a personal standpoint, I had the rare opportunity to see this team play live on three different occasions. Two of those games were part of a cross-country road trip I took my with future brother-in-law. One of my most vivid memories of the trip was during the Redskins-Lions game in Washington. During a punt return late in the 4th quarter, a Lions player was knocked senseless with a viscous block. My brother-in-law turned to me and asked, “Was that Taylor!?” My reply was a resounding “Oh yeah.” Of course, we were talking about Sean Taylor, who just over six weeks later, would be gunned down in his home. The next week, we traveled to Green Bay, where Taylor may have had the finest game of his brief career.

Later in the season, I was fortunate enough to travel to Dallas. I met some wonderful fellow Redskins fans and endured yet another gut-wrenching loss to our arch rivals. I watched from home the next week as the Redskins fell to Tampa Bay. At that point, I wasn’t sure things could get much worse.

Then the news that Taylor had been killed, followed by a one-point loss to Buffalo. Oh yeah, the Redskins had to fly to Miami the day after that game to attend Taylor’s funeral. And on top of all that, they had yet another game to play that Thursday.

From that low point, the Redskins resurrected a season, and in many ways, resurrected hope, behind the rock solid leadership of their coach, Joe Gibbs. For the next four weeks, the Redskins tore through their competition, all the while ignoring the injuries and tragedy that had befallen them earlier in the season. Even without several key starters, the Redskins won their final four games, including a 27-6 pounding of the Cowboys on the last Sunday of the season that clinched their improbable playoff berth.

From rock bottom to the playoffs in four weeks? That doesn’t happen in the real world. That’s Disney stuff.

So you had to forgive Redskins fans for having wild visions when we recovered that kickoff last Saturday. How else to explain all of this?

But I suppose that’s what separates the Disney World from the real world. There are no cruel twists at the ends of Disney movies. There are no head-scratchers. Disney movies don’t leave you with a pit in your stomach.

What I learned this year is that the common saying, “there’s always next year,” doesn’t always apply. At least not for everyone. There will be no “next year” for Sean Taylor. He was with the team during this amazing run, but given time and distance, things will change. He will always be remembered by the organization, his friends, his fans, and the NFL community, but his presence won’t be nearly as tangible as it was during this year. Now, the reality sets in. He’s gone. And so is the 2007 season.

I’m grateful for the 2007 Washington Redskins. Grateful for the way they played, grateful for the way they represented my beloved franchise, and grateful from a personal standpoint that I was able to witness the season from such a close vantage point, with so many wonderful people.

I really don’t know what to expect next year. I’m hopeful, but not sold. Right now, next year seems like a faraway place.

For now, I’ll focus on this year. 2007.

Maybe we didn’t get our Disney ending. But then again, maybe we did.

NFL Wild Card Weekend Picks, Pats, and Apologies

Last Week: 12-4
Season: 166-90
Record Picking Redskins Games: 10-6
Against the Spread: 29-33-2
Lock of the Week (ATS): 10-6

Final Regular Season Analysis: I think I had a pretty good year, but a few disastrous weeks made my overall record look pretty pedestrian. I did finish 20 games better than I did last year (146-110) and slightly above my wins mark from 2005 (163), so I guess I’m headed in the right direction.

I had a hard time getting a good read on several teams this year (Giants, Bucs, and Bengals all come to mind), while I had a good read from the start on some other teams (Cowboys, Packers, Chiefs, Patriots). My pre-season pick of Patriots over Cowboys in the Super Bowl looks pretty good at this point as well.

My little experiment with picking games against the spread yielded some interesting results. My goal was to choose 4 games each week and see how I would have fared at the end of the season had I bet them all. Clearly, with my finishing mark of 29-33-2, I would have lost money. Not a ton, but a loss nonetheless. However, each week, I also chose one game that I would have bet above all others (my “lock of the week”). In those games, I did pretty well, finishing at 10-6. So perhaps that is the key right there—pick the ONE game you like the most each week instead of picking several.

Overall, my analysis of my 2007 regular season picks is that I was steady, but unspectacular.

Now, on to the playoffs.

Washington at Seattle: I’ve never hidden my fandom in this blog, and I certainly can’t start now. I will 100% admit that my predictions and opinions of the Redskins are definitely skewed at this point due to the improbable and emotional run they have been on for the past month. One thing is not up for debate—the team is playing extremely well in all facets of the game. In addition to their on-field execution, the team is clearly rallying behind Joe Gibbs and their fallen teammate. Things will change for the Redskins this week. The Seahawks will be the toughest team they’ve played since turning their season around, and the Seahawks total dominance at Qwest Field is well documented. Only the Patriots have more home wins over the past five seasons. As a Redskins fan, my biggest fear is Matt Hasslebeck. He has been widely underrated for several years now both by the media and the average NFL fan. Hasslebeck is the type of QB that can beat you even if you have a perfect gameplan and good execution. The rest of the Seahawks skill position players are middling at best, but they do have good depth at both RB and WR, which makes it difficult to key on one specific area.

Defensively, the Seahawks have been very solid, but they have also gone unchallenged most of the year due to Seattle’s soft schedule. Todd Collins has been magnificent in leading the Redskins the past four games—is his performance legitimate or is the coach about to turn into a pumpkin? Of all the wild card games, I’ve had the hardest time getting a read on this one. Hasslebeck and the Seahawks are more experienced in this situation and homefield is a bigger advantage than usual when analyzing any game played in Seattle. But I grew up on Joe Gibbs. I know about his impeccable playoff record and how his teams get markedly better this time of the year. Two years ago this weekend, the Redskins went into Tampa Bay and won a playoff game on heart, desire, and preparation. I just don’t see them going home this early. Call it a homer pick, but that’s my take.

Redskins 23, Seahawks 20

Jacksonville at Pittsburgh: Jacksonville is certainly the “hotter” team at this point, and they have become a popular pick to win this game and make some noise in the AFC. But if I were a Jags fan, I’d just hate the fact that my team was trying to win in Pittsburgh for the second time in less than a month. In many ways, Jacksonville manhandled the Steelers in week 15, and Pittsburgh has looked average at best ever since. As a matter of fact, the Steelers have been generally uninspiring since mid-season. But I’m a weenie. I am sticking by the book here and taking the home team. It just feels unnatural to pick the Steelers to lose at home in early January.

Steelers 27, Jaguars 23

New York Giants at Tampa Bay: On one hand, I can see Eli Manning getting rattled and bombing badly this week against the tough Bucs defense. On the other hand, I can’t ignore the Giants stellar 7-1 road record this year. Manning appears to be more comfortable when playing away from the glare of his hometown fans and media. The Bucs are even more of a mystery. They sort of won the lackluster AFC South by default this year and they rested many of their players and slogged to two losses over the past two weeks against the 49ers and Panthers. I understand not wanting to get key players injured, but I don’t like the way the Bucs are entering the playoffs.

Having said that, I simply do not trust Manning (or Tom Coughlin) to win under these tense playoff circumstances. I am also troubled by the Giants run defense, which has been lousy the past several weeks and could be exploited by Tampa Bay. I think this will be the lowest scoring of the four games this weekend, and possibly the closest.

Bucs 17, Giants 16

Tennessee at San Diego: I was really pulling for the Colts last Sunday night because I thought Cleveland would have made for a much more intriguing match up headed into San Diego. I respect the Titans’ grit and their solid 10-6 record in a tough division. However, the Titans may be the least explosive 10-6 team I’ve ever seen, and I think you need at least a little explosion to keep up with the Chargers. I don’t like the Chargers chances in the coming weeks, but this is a good spot for them.

Chargers 28, Titans 13