NFL Week Seventeen Picks, Pats, and Apologies

Last Week: 13-3
Season: 154-86
Record Picking Redskins Games: 9-6
Against the Spread: 26-32-2
Lock of the Week (ATS): 9-6

Last Week’s Pats: Possibly my best week ever in terms of nailing major upsets: Correctly picked both the Bears and Bengals to win.

Last Week’s Apologies: I thought all last week that EITHER the Saints or Giants would lose, but not both. Turns out I flipped a coin and got it backwards.

This Week’s Picks:

New England at New York Giants: Funny, but it may wind up being Tom Brady and crew against the GIANTS second string rather than the other way around. I see no reason the Patriots roll ends here.

Patriots 34, Giants 20

Cincinnati at Miami: There will be a race to the airport after this one.

Bengals 33, Dolphins 23

Buffalo at Philadelphia: The Eagles have looked extremely good the past two weeks. Is this a sign that McNabb, Reid and friends will return next year, or is it just a swan song?

Eagles 26, Bills 13

Seattle at Atlanta: A meaningless cross-country game for the Seahawks, but for some reason, I see their back-ups finding a way to win this one.

Seahawks 24, Falcons 21

New Orleans at Chicago: The Saints missed their golden opportunity last week. Now, their chances are slim and I don’t like their chances in the nasty weather.

Bears 20, Saints 17

Carolina at Tampa Bay: Much like Seattle, I think Tampa wins this one even if they don’t play their key starters.

Bucs 19, Panthers 16

San Francisco at Cleveland: The 49ers have shown some life the past few weeks, but I’m not sure it’s enough to save Mike Nolan’s job. Cleveland is an odd position of still being alive for the playoffs and yet playing in a meaningless game.

Browns 29, 49ers 17

Detroit at Green Bay: I have a feeling the Packers would like to get the taste of last week’s drubbing in Chicago out of their mouths.

Packers 23, Lions 16

Jacksonville at Houston: This game would smell like an upset anyway, but with Jacksonville resting many players, look for Houston to end 2007 with their first non-losing season.

Texans 20, Jaguars 14

San Diego at Oakland: The Chargers have plenty to play for this week. A win means they avoid New England until the AFC Championship game. It also means they avoid the Jaguars in the first round. Two very good reasons to play this one through.

Chargers 30, Raiders 13

Kansas City at New York Jets: I wonder why NBC moved this game out of primetime?

Jets 6, Chiefs 3

St. Louis at Arizona: I’m not sure any team in the league will enter the off-season with more regret than the Cardinals. They had a very nice season right there in front of them, yet they came up short in several winnable games.

Cardinals 34, Rams 27

Dallas at Washington: As a Redskins fan, this game scares the daylights out of me. Dallas has little motivation this week, but the guys that do play will certainly play hard. Stranger things have happened in rivalry games. Having said that, I think Joe Gibbs has his team on a mission right now, and I don’t think it ends quite yet.

Redskins 23, Cowboys 20

Minnesota at Denver: I know Denver isn’t very good, but have they quit? If not, I can certainly see the Broncos winning this game; Tarvaris Jackson is awful and Denver is always a tough place to play, especially this time of year. Ah, what the heck, go with the upset.

Broncos 24, Vikings 20

Pittsburgh at Baltimore: Baltimore is miserable. Simply miserable.

Steelers 22, Ravens 13

Tennessee at Indianapolis: For some reason, I see Cleveland fans getting their wish this week. I know Indy won’t be playing most of their starters, but this is a nationally televised game, the Titans offense is in the muck, and the Colts are at home. Odd to say this, but I’m going with a big upset.

Colts 20, Titans 17

4 To Score

1. Colts (+6.5) against the Titans. I just don’t see the Colts handing this one over, even with their back-ups.
2. Eagles (-7.5) against the Bills. Eagles seem to be ending the season on a high note.
3. Cowboys (+9) against the Redskins. You can only dress 47 players for an NFL game. The notion that none of the starters will play is false. Brad Johnson is a pro and this is a rivalry game. It won’t be easy.
4. Broncos (+3) against the Vikings. Couldn’t really find a 4th game I liked, so I went with a home underdog.

NFL Week Sixteen Picks, Pats, and Apologies

Last Week: 7-9
Season: 141-83
Record Picking Redskins Games: 8-6
Against the Spread: 24-30-2
Lock of the Week: 8-6

Last Week’s Pats: Not much to choose from. About the only thing worth bragging about was my prediction that the Raiders would stay within a TD of the Colts.

Last Week’s Apologies: Underestimated the Texans, Saints, and most notably the Redskins. All three of those teams came up with clutch victories in games they needed to keep their playoff hopes alive.

This Week’s Picks:

Pittsburgh at St. Louis: The Steelers are fortunate to be wrapping their season up against the Rams and Ravens because I have not been impressed with them over the past few weeks. I certainly can’t pick the lowly Rams to win this game, but I could definitely see them keeping it close.

Steelers 27, Rams 19

Dallas at Carolina: The Cowboys will bounce back from their ugly loss to Philly. The miserable Carolina offense will make sure of it.

Cowboys 26, Panthers 10

Oakland at Jacksonville: Very big win for the Jags last week in Pittsburgh. They are beginning to look like the third best team in the AFC.

Jaguars 31, Raiders 16

Kansas City at Detroit: The “suitcase” game. Both of these teams have pretty much packed it in.

Lions 28, Chiefs 20

Houston at Indianapolis: Texans are out of the playoff race, but they do still have a shot at the first winning season in franchise history. Indy doesn’t really need this game, but I think they will wait until next week to sit their stars.

Colts 24, Texans 20

Philadelphia at New Orleans: The Eagles are a prideful team, so I don’t see them “laying down” even though they were eliminated from playoff contention. Jim Johnson’s defense swarmed the Cowboys last week and Drew Brees better be on the lookout this Sunday. Having said that, the Eagles have been far too inconsistent this year (on both sides of the ball) for me to feel comfortable picking them this week. I view this game as a total toss-up. In that situation, I’ll go with the team that has more on the line.

Saints 26, Eagles 23

New York Giants at Buffalo: Was last week’s 12 point loss to Washington a sign of impending doom for the Giants? Or was it just a blip on the radar screen. New York needs only win in their final two games to clinch a playoff berth, but with the Patriots looming, the noose could tighten quickly if things don’t go well early this week in Buffalo. This is not a good situation for the Giants.

Bills 20, Giants 17

Green Bay at Chicago: Upset of the year. No doubt, the Bears have “earned” their 5-9 record this season, but this is a rivalry game and Chicago would like nothing more than to spoil the plans of the Packers. With the Saints coming to town next week, the Bears have one final opportunity to leave their mark on the 2007 season. I’d be wary if I were Green Bay and New Orleans.

Bears 19, Packers 17

Cleveland at Cincinnati: Going with another upset here, although I’m not really sure why.

Bengals 28, Browns 24

Atlanta at Arizona: The Cardinals had their chances this year, but once again, they found a way to blow it almost every time. Arizona should be very disappointing with their 2007 season. I see them taking a little frustration out on the painfully bad Falcons this week.

Cardinals 34, Falcons 13

Tampa Bay at San Francisco: The 49ers played with a bit of pride last Saturday against Cincinnati. Look for them to do it again this week, although I still think they come up short.

Bucs 23, 49ers 17

New York Jets at Tennessee: The Titans are still very alive. They need some help, but no way do I see them dropping a must-win game at home against the Jets.

Titans 22, Jets 13

Miami at New England: Tom Brady is still 5 touchdown passes away from setting the single season mark after his poor game last Sunday. I think he gets VERY close to setting that mark this weekend.

Patriots 41, Dolphins 14

Baltimore at Seattle: The Ravens hit rock bottom last week by losing to the 0-13 Dolphins. Scratch that, the Ravens hit rock bottom last week by announcing Brian Billick will return next season.

Seahawks 24, Ravens 10

Washington at Minnesota: Excellent match-up between two teams playing very good football right now. This game will fall on the shoulders of Todd Collins. The Vikings will not allow the Redskins to control flow with their running game. Collins will need to make plays downfield in order for Washington to keep drives alive and keep the ball out of Adrian Peterson’s hands. I have a funny feeling Collins does just that this Sunday evening.

Redskins 27, Vikings 20

Denver at San Diego: If I were a Broncos fan, I think I might be starting to get a little sick of Mike Shannahan.

Chargers 31, Broncos 20

4 To Score

1. Redskins (+6.5) against the Vikings. Of the Redskins 7 losses, only one has come by more than 8 points.
2. Bills (+3) against the Giants. This is a pick against the Giants as much as it is for the Bills.
3. Patriots (-22) against the Dolphins. Pats get the offense back on track.
4. Bears (+8.5) against the Packers. Pretty big spread for a home team in a rivalry game.

NFL Week Fifteen Picks, Pats, and Apologies

Last Week: 14-2
Season: 134-74
Record Picking Redskins Games: 8-5
Against the Spread: 24-26-2
Lock of the Week: 8-5

Last Week’s Pats: Hard to nit-pick a 14-2 record. In addition to picking a few upsets (Texans over Bucs), I also hit some point totals for specific teams (Bears, Browns, Patriots). Gotta bask in the glow of victorious weeks such as this one!

Last Week’s Apologies: The two New York teams messed me up. The Jets were unable to pull out the upset over Cleveland and the Giants proved to be too much for the Eagles.

This Week’s Picks:

Denver at Houston: A fun game. Basically, it’s a playoff game because the winner stays alive and the loser can start planning for 2008. I’ve been on the Texans bandwagon all season long and some week’s we’ve hit and others we’ve missed badly. This week, I’m leaning towards the slightly more experienced team and coaching staff to get the win. But it could go either way.

Broncos 26, Texans 24

Cincinnati at San Francisco: Both of these teams have been major flops this year, but right now, the Bengals at least still seem to be trying.

Bengals 31, 49ers 17

Atlanta at Tampa Bay: Can’t quite figure out if Bobby Petrino’s sudden change of heart hurts or helps the Falcons—both this season and beyond. My guess is that this adds one more distraction to a team that did not need anymore. Tampa in a rout.

Bucs 30, Falcons 10

Tennessee at Kansas City: The playoff ice is getting very thin in Tennessee. It appears the struggling Chiefs would be just what the doctor ordered, but I have a sneaking feeling that Kansas City is embarrassed after last week’s performance in Denver and will come out ready to play on Sunday. Will that be enough to knock off the Titans? Flip a coin.

Chiefs 20, Titans 17

Seattle at Carolina: The only thing that worries me here is that this is basically a totally meaningless game for Seattle. They wrapped up the division last week and don’t really have a shot at either of the top two spots in the NFC. In other words, Seattle is more or less “locked in” to their playoff slot with three games remaining. But Carolina is really bad right now.

Seahawks 23, Panthers 19

Green Bay at St. Louis: The Packers are doing their best to keep the heat on Dallas, but they are quickly running out of time. The Rams have played better as of late, but not nearly well enough to beat this Packer squad.

Packers 27, Rams 20

Baltimore at Miami: I’m finally starting to believe that it REALLY IS going to happen. The Ravens have nothing to play for other than not wanting to be the team that loses to the Dolphins. That’s motivation enough.

Ravens 22, Dolphins 16

New York Jets and New England: You think the Patriots are going to take it easy on the Jets and Mangini after “videogate?” Ha!

Patriots 49, Jets 13

Arizona at New Orleans: Another crucial game when it comes to that last wildcard slot in the NFC. The Saints looked wonderful on Monday night in Atlanta, but they’ve been up and down all year, so I wouldn’t read too much into that. Arizona laid an egg last week in Seattle, but I think they are the better team here.

Cardinals 28, Saints 24

Jacksonville at Pittsburgh: I REALLY want to pick an upset here, but every time I start believing in the Jaguars, they prove to be pretenders. Now, they have to prove themselves to me before I go out on a limb for them.

Steelers 21, Jaguars 17

Buffalo at Cleveland: Game of the week? Quite possibly. Not sure anyone would have guessed that back in September, but these two teams have been playing very good football the past several weeks and both are now primed to assert themselves as a playoff team. Going with Cleveland this week for two reasons: 1. Homefield. 2. Better quarterback.

Browns 29, Bills 20

Indianapolis at Oakland: Just taking a wild stab that Oakland makes a game out of this one.

Colts 31, Raiders 24

Detroit at San Diego: Perhaps last week’s comeback win in Tennessee was the final push the Chargers needed to become the team they should be? Either way, the disastrous Lions shouldn’t be able to derail them this week.

Chargers 34, Lions 21

Philadelphia at Dallas: Last week was the swan song for the Eagles season, and possibly the entire Reid/McNabb regime. So close, but sorry Philly fans, still no rings.

Cowboys 35, Eagles 20

Washington at New York Giants: The Redskins beat the Bears last week on guts, guile, and heart. I have a feeling they bring that same intensity and passion into the Meadowlands this week, but sometimes, that just isn’t enough. There has to be a reason Todd Collins has been on moth balls for ten years…right?

Giants 27, Redskins 14

Chicago at Minnesota: The Vikings are on a roll, and I don’t think the Bears figure out a way to stop them.

Vikings 24, Bears 13

4 To Score

1. Chiefs (+4) against the Titans. Banking on the Chiefs’ pride keeping them in this game at home.

2. Broncos (even) against the Texans. I am always tempted by even spreads.

3. Cardinals (+3.5) against New Orleans. Look for Arizona to win this one outright.

4. Patriots (-23.5) against the Jets. The Pats may just shatter this spread.

NFL Week Fourteen Picks, Pats, and Apologies

Last Week: 10-6
Season: 120-72
Record Picking Redskins Games: 7-5
Against the Spread: 21-25-2
Lock of the Week: 7-5

Last Week’s Pats: The Browns-Cardinals game was an even spread, and I correctly picked the right side (Cardinals). Other than that, can’t brag about too much.

Last Week’s Apologies: The only real “apology” this week goes out to the Giants, who I thought may have been about to go on a slide. But the Giants, and more importantly, their quarterback made some clutch plays late in the game and got a much needed victory.

This Week’s Picks:

Chicago at Washington: A nearly impossible game to pick because of the emotions involved. Will the Redskins play more “free” now that they have some closure following Sean Taylor’s funeral? Or will they be even more drained than they were last week? On the field, I see these two teams as even, so the intangibles will go a long way in deciding this one. The winner finds themselves in the thick of the playoff hunt, while the loser can start making off-season plans. A tough one. Going with my heart here.

Redskins 19, Bears 16

Miami at Buffalo: Sorry Miami, not this week.

Bills 22, Dolphins 13

St. Louis at Cincinnati: This is the official “Most Disappointing Team in Each Conference” Bowl. A fun match-up when the schedule was released is now nothing more than a December dud.

Bengals 27, Rams 23

Carolina at Jacksonville: The Panthers are one win away from establishing themselves in the NFC wildcard race. But I don’t see them getting that win this week. Even though Jacksonville proved they aren’t real contenders last week, they are still more than capable of taking care of Carolina.

Jaguars 28, Panthers 14

Dallas at Detroit: The only thing that has me wavering this week is the fact that this is a virtually meaningless game for Dallas. With four games left and a two game cushion on Green Bay, I could see Dallas taking a “week off” sometime soon. Having said that, Detroit looks simply miserable right now and the Cowboys may be able to beat them at half-speed.

Cowboys 30, Lions 23

Tampa Bay at Houston: I’ve been riding the Texans all year long. I’ve “hit” a few times and missed a few more. Tampa basically won the NFC South last week, so I could see a letdown here.

Texans 20, Bucs 17

Oakland at Green Bay: I know people want to see Brett Favre keep his consecutive starts streak alive, but if I were the Packers, I’d rest him this week regardless. Green Bay is close to being locked into their playoff slot, and playing at home against a 4-8 team would be a good time to give Favre some rest. Either way, I like the Packers in an ugly one. But expect the Raiders to compete.

Packers 18, Raiders 16

San Diego at Tennessee: Finally, the Chargers seem to have things figured out. Now, they can wait until mid January to collapse.

Chargers 27, Titans 17

New York Giants at Philadelphia: Another tough call. Giants are coming off a huge win, while Philly is reeling from back to back close losses. It’s desperation time for the Eagles, while the Giants have more wiggle room than any other NFC wildcard contender. The Giants are the better team, but I see the Eagles finding a way.

Eagles 24, Giants 21

Minnesota at San Francisco: Talk about a roll. The Vikings have just destroyed their last two opponents and now they get to take on the lowly 49ers. Still not 100% sold on Tavaris Jackson, but the Vikings won’t need him this week.

Vikings 26, 49ers 17

Arizona at Seattle: I have a feeling the Cardinals loss two week’s ago to the 49ers is going to ultimately doom their season. Arizona beat Seattle earlier this year, but I don’t see that happening again—especially if Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin are both out.

Seahawks 30, Cardinals 20

Kansas City at Denver: The Chiefs were essentially eliminated from playoff contention last week. With a loss on Sunday, Denver will join them. Look for the Broncos to hang on for at least one more week.

Broncos 24, Chiefs 17

Pittsburgh at New England: Only the Patriots can BENEFIT from their own false start on 4th and inches. After two scares, I see New England winning this one a bit more easily, but they certainly don’t seem as indestructible as they once did.

Patriots 34, Steelers 20

Cleveland at New York Jets: Riding an upset hunch here—the Jets have played pretty well in the Meadowland this year and Kellen Clemens has made that offense a bit more potent.

Jets 26, Browns 24

Indianapolis at Baltimore: The Ravens gave it everything they had last Monday against New England. You have to wonder if they have anything left.

Colts 27, Ravens 16

New Orleans at Atlanta: I want to ride the upset wave here, but I’m going to be a weenie and play it safe.

Saints 31, Falcons 20

4 To Score

1. Chargers (even) against the Titans. I always like even spreads. I REALLY like this one.
2. Lions (+10.5) against the Cowboys. That is a huge line for a home underdog.
3. Texans (+3) against the Bucs. Been riding the Texans all year-- for better or worse.
4. Jets (+3) against the Browns. Going with another home underdog.