NFL Week Eight Picks, Pats, and Apologies

Last Week: 13-1
Season: 68-35
Record Picking Redskins Games: 4-2
Against the Spread: 15-8-1
Lock of the Week: 5-1

Last Week’s Pats: Where to start? 13-1 is pretty darn good. I am probably most proud of nailing the Bears over the Eagles (missed the final score by 1 point) and the Broncos over the Steelers. Also, I had another winning week against the spread.

Last Week’s Apologies: The stupid Raiders kept me from an undefeated week, so I guess I owe an apology to the Chiefs. Kansas City looks like a 4-5 win team to me, but here they sit at 4-3; credit Herm Edwards. I would also like to apologize to myself for picking the 49ers to cover the spread….again. Fool me once………

This Week’s Picks:

Detroit at Chicago: I thought the Bears got back on track in Green Bay, then they lost at home to Minnesota. Now, I think they’ve gotten back on track by winning a thriller in Philly. This time I’m right.

Bears 23, Lions 20

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati: I’m having a hard time with this one. The Bengals have had some success in recent years against the Steelers and this is a must-win game for Cincinnati. However, Pittsburgh is clearly the better team. I see the Steelers finding a way this week.

Steelers 24, Bengals 20

Indianapolis at Carolina: This is definitely a game Carolina could win, but I’m very leery when it comes to their current QB situation. The Colts defense is stout.

Colts 27, Panthers 17

Oakland at Tennessee: The Titans just keep gliding along, finding ways to win as Jeff Fisher almost always seems to do. I really want to pull the trigger and make this my upset special of the week, but that Raiders offense was abysmal last Sunday.

Titans 17, Raiders 13

Cleveland at St. Louis: So, I’ll save my upset special for this one. Yep, the Rams will get their first victory of the season this week.

Rams 26, Browns 23

New York Giants at Miami: “at Miami” is really accurate seeing the game is being played in London, but I’ll go by the book here. I am extremely impressed with the Giants over the past five weeks—that defense gets better and better each game. Miami is obviously horrible, but I do see them putting up a fight in front of an international audience.

Giants 28, Dolphins 20

Philadelphia at Minnesota: Not a huge fan of either of these teams right now. Philly looks old and tired, and Minnesota’s passing game may be the worst in the league. I do find it a bit odd that Philly is favored to win on the road here. Going with the home team to win an ugly one.

Vikings 19, Eagles 17

Buffalo at New York Jets: Go with the law of averages here. Jets win at home.

Jets 20, Bills 17

Houston at San Diego: The wildfires are keeping this game off the board in Vegas, and a change in venue could benefit the Texans. However, I think the Chargers are back in the groove and will win this game regardless of when and where it is played.

Chargers 30, Texans 17

Jacksonville at Tampa Bay: Did you see Quinn Gray play QB for the Jags the other night? Oh. My. God. He’s really bad.

Bucs 16, Jaguars 12

New Orleans at San Francisco: My gut tells me to go with the 49ers here, but SF has burned me all season long. Still not overly impressed with the Saints, but I’ll give them a slight benefit of the doubt in this one.

Saints 27, 49ers 23

Washington at New England: You heard it here first. The Redskins are going to shock the world on Sunday. The Patriots have yet to be tested by the likes of the Redskins secondary. The time has come for Tom Brady and his band of rollicking receivers to be brought back down to earth. It’s gonna happen folks, the upset of the year is on the horizon.

Patriots 34, Redskins 17

Green Bay at Denver: I was very confident Denver would beat Pittsburgh last week. Although I’m not quite as sure this week, I still like the Broncos to win a close one at home.

Broncos 23, Packers 21

4 To Score

1. Raiders (+7.5) against the Titans. Big spread for a team that doesn’t exactly blow teams away.
2. Rams (+3) against the Browns. Yes, smart people always bet on winless teams.
3. Vikings (+1) against the Eagles. Toss-up game, go with the home team.

4. Redskins (+16.5) against the Patriots. Why not?

NFL Week Seven Picks, Pats, and Apologies

Last Week: 6-7
Season: 55-34
Record Picking Redskins Games: 3-2
Against the Spread: 12-7-1
Lock of the Week: 4-1

Last Week’s Pats/Apologies: I am taking a “mulligan” for last week. I was on the road, tired, and not operating at maximum concentration levels. I am still counting the games against my record, but I didn’t even make picks against the spread last week. Haste makes waste—and last week, I posted with much haste.

This Week’s Picks:

Baltimore at Buffalo: My “upset specials” haven’t exactly been on target lately, but I have this strange sense that Buffalo is about to pull one off. Kyle Boller is bound to lose Baltimore a game at some point.

Bills 17, Ravens 15

Atlanta at New Orleans: Was the Saints impressive win at Seattle an aberration or a sign of a turnaround? We won’t know much more this week, as I don’t see Atlanta putting up much of a fight.

Saints 27, Falcons 16

Arizona at Washington: The Redskins defense might be the best unit in the league this year. Yet, they are only 3-2 and two of those wins were very close. So, why aren’t the Redskins better? The offense continues to make huge mistakes and they seem unable to execute any explosive plays. If Tim Rattay starts at QB for Arizona, expect a blowout. If it’s Kurt Warner, expect a tighter game. Either way, Washington should win.

Redskins 24, Cardinals 13

San Francisco at New York Giants: I’m sold: You don’t win four games in a row in the NFL by accident. The Giants offense is very good, and their defense seems to have rebounded from their miserable start. Right now, New York looks as good as any team in the NFC.

Giants 23, 49ers 17

New England at Miami: Hide the women and children.

Patriots 37, Dolphins 10

Tennessee at Houston: At this point, I’m not sure if the Titans are better off with Vince Young or Kerry Collins at QB. This is a total toss up pick: I’ll go with Tennessee because I like Jeff Fisher in these types of games.

Titans 20, Texans 17

Tampa Bay at Detroit: For some reason, I am very confident in the Lions this week. The Tampa Bay offense is beginning to slow down with their running back injuries and Detroit has had two weeks to get ready following their debacle in Washington.

Lions 26, Bucs 20

Kansas City at Oakland: I just can’t figure out how the Chiefs have managed to win 3 games this year—I just don’t think KC is a very talented team. Oakland, on the other hand, appears to be much improved from last year.

Raiders 22, Chiefs 17

New York Jets at Cincinnati: Ugh. Total desperation game for both teams. I don’t think either team has much upside at this point, but the loser can pretty much officially call it a season for 2007. I think the Jets are done.

Bengals 21, Jets 16

Minnesota at Dallas: Adrian Peterson is a star, but how long can he mask the Vikings other offensive deficiencies? Dallas got thumped last week, but at least the thumping came at the hands of arguably the best team ever (through six games at least). Cowboys will rebound.

Cowboys 28, Vikings 14

St. Louis at Seattle: I picked St. Louis to win the NFC West. Oops.

Seahawks 29, Rams 20

Chicago at Philadelphia: A borderline must-win game for both of these disappointing teams. I’m just not big on Philly right now despite the fact that they pulled off a win in New York last week. In contrast, I’m just not ready to give up on the Bears quite yet.

Bears 20, Eagles 16

Pittsburgh at Denver: I correctly predicted the Steelers to lose in Arizona a few weeks ago, and I have sneaking feeling that they are about to be handed their second loss of the season. Denver has looked dreadful so far this year, but coming off a BYE, I see them putting a nice effort together.

Broncos 22, Steelers 19

Indianapolis at Jacksonville: The Jags are hot right now, but Indy has had two weeks to prepare for this game. Jacksonville ran wild on Indy late last year, but this isn’t the same Colts defense that got thrashed that day. David Garrard has been a solid “game manager” thus far, but at some point, he’ll need to make big plays for the Jags. No way does he keep pace with Peyton Manning this week.

Colts 24, Jaguars 17

4 To Score

1. Bears (+5) against the Eagles. I’m just not ready to pile the dirt on Chicago quite yet.
2. Broncos (+3) against the Steelers. It’s not often the Broncos are home underdogs.
3. 49ers (-9.5) against the Giants. I like the Giants to win, but this spread seems a tad high to me.

4. Titans (-1) against the Texans. This is the kind of game Jeff Fisher always seems to win.

Week Six Picks, Pats, and Apologies

Super Short version because I'm on the road and tired....

Last Week: 9-5

Season: 49-27

Record Picking Redskins Games: 2-2

Against the Spread: 12-7-1

Lock of the Week: 4-1

This Week's Picks:

Ravens 23, Rams 19

Bears 20, Vikings 16

Browns 27, Dolphins 17

Packers 23, Redskins 16 (Don't think the skins offense is ready to score on a big time D yet)

Jaguars 17, Texans 14

Bengals 26, Chiefs 17

Jets 22, Eagles 20 (Eagles could be crumbling)

Titans 20, Bucs 17

Cardinals 24, Panthers 13

Patriots 27, Cowboys 23 (Dallas will keep it really close, but NE will find a way)

Chargers 30, Raiders 17

Seahawks 23, Saints 20

Falcons 24, Giants 20 (my "what the heck" pick of the week)

PPA will return in full form next week...

NFL Week Five Picks, Pats, and Apologies

Last Week: 7-7

Season: 40-22

Record Picking Redskins Games: 1-2

Against the Spread: 10-5-1

Lock of the Week: 3-1

Last Week's Pats: Though the 7-7 record is nothing to brag about, I did manage to pick some nice upsets, including Atlanta over Houston, Buffalo over the Jets, and most impressively, Arizona over Pittsburgh. I also continued my strong showing against the spread this year, finishing the week at 3-1.

Last Week's Apologies: Looks like I've misjudged the Seahawks. I thought Seattle was in for a fall from grace this year, but so far, they look strong. They went on the road and destroyed the 49ers last week. Tampa Bay also caught my eye last week with their dismantling of Carolina.

This Week's Picks:

Carolina at New Orleans: I couldn't be more unsure of any game. While I no longer believe the Saints will just magically explode and look like they did last year, I also find it hard to believe that they could be as bad as they've looked thus far. Carolina is a different team week to week. Throwing my hands in the air and picking the home team.

Saints 24, Panthers 21

New York Jets at New York Giants: Always a fun match-up. The NFL makes no sense, and neither does this pick based on the way the teams have played the past few weeks.

Jets 23, Giants 21

Seattle at Pittsburgh: A rematch of Super Bowl XL. As I mentioned above, Seattle has surprised me thus far. So, with that in mind, I'm going with.......Pittsburgh.

Steelers 20, Seahawks 17

Arizona at St. Louis: I was very high on the Rams and watched as they burned me in my picks for the first three weeks. Last week, I finally got wise and they didn't disappoint-- getting whipped by the Cowboys. I'm still not sold that Arizona can win on the road, and St. Louis is bound to win sometime, but for now, I'll take the Cards.

Cardinals 30, Rams 27

Miami at Houston: The Texans just aren't the same team without Andre Johnson. However, what should be more startling for Texans fans is that Joey Harrington and the Falcons moved the ball so easily last week. Good thing for Houston, the miserable Dolphins are in town.

Texans 21, Dolphins 19

Detroit at Washington: The more I watch the trends around the NFL, the more I am convinced the Redskins offensive "philosophy" is fatally flawed and way behind the curve the rest of the league has set. The Redskins struggle to get over 17 points week after week and their defense, while solid, is not good enough to win those types of games week in and week out. I think the Lions are probably the better team here, but I am going with Washington for two reasons: Detroit is 0-20 all time in Washington, which is one of those random sports stats that just makes your jaw drop. Secondly, I'll be there. The Redskins won't let me down like that, will they?

Redskins 23, Lions 20

Cleveland at New England: I think the Browns can cover the 16 point spread. That should be their goal.

Patriots 35, Browns 20

Jacksonville at Kansas City: I'm not a huge Herm Edwards fan, but I've got to hand it to the guy-- I thought the Chiefs were staring at a 3-13 type of season, but they've rattled off two in a row and the offense is beginning to look competent. Jacksonville is the most schizo team in the league-- no idea what to expect from them week to week.

Chiefs 17, Jaguars 16

Atlanta at Tennessee: Bobby Petrino looks like he may know what he's doing. The Falcons offense has looked very sharp the past two weeks. But the Titans will be too much for Atlanta to handle on the road.

Titans 24, Falcons 20

Tampa Bay at Indianapolis: Wonder if the Bears are rethinking not going after Jeff Garcia? The guy just keeps finding ways to win. Tampa Bay has been very solid on both sides of the ball the past three weeks. But going into Indy is a whole new ballgame.

Colts 30, Bucs 17

Baltimore at San Francisco: I said before the year that I wasn't too high on the Ravens-- so far in 2007, they haven't proven me wrong. I picked the 49ers to pull off an upset last week, and they totally laid an egg. I'm going to roll the dice with them one more time and say Trent Dilfer finds a way to beat his old team.

49ers 19, Ravens 16

San Diego at Denver: I'd hate to be in the losing lockeroom after this one. A game of desperation for both teams. San Diego is getting what they deserved by hiring Norv Turner. Denver is lucky they aren't 0-4. I see the Chargers finally pulling one out.

Chargers 27, Broncos 23

Chicago at Green Bay: This is one of those games where deep down, I could see the Bears pulling it out. But right now, there is just too much evidence to the contrary.

Packers 20, Bears 16

Dallas at Buffalo: Expect the Bills to make a good showing at home on national television. Also, expect the Cowboys to run away and hide in the 4th quarter.

Cowboys 27, Bills 17

4 To Score

1. Atlanta (+8) against the Titans: I think the Falcons offensive surge the past two weeks is legit.

2. New York Jets (+3) against the Giants: Not a true "road game" for the Jets. At worst, I see this as a push.

3. Seattle (+6) against the Steelers: This one has me a bit nervous because it isn't a huge game for Seattle, but the 6 points seems high to me.

4. San Diego (Even) against the Broncos: I always enjoy Pick Em' games, as maddening as they may be.