NFL Week Four Picks, Pats, and Apologies

Last Week: 9-7

Season: 33-15

Record Picking Redskins Games: 1-2

Against the Spread: 7-4-1

Lock of the Week: 2-1

Last Week's Pats: Not too much to brag about this week. Correctly picked the Cowboys to "upset" the Bears and correctly picked a close game between the Ravens and the Cardinals. But overall, not much back-patting this week.

Last Week's Apologies: Tampa Bay got my attention last week. At the same time, I am off the St. Louis bandwagon following their third straight ugly performance. I was also WAY off on the Jaguars-Broncos game. Denver has looked very shaky thus far in 2007.

This Week's Picks:

Houston at Atlanta: No one will ever go 0-16 in the NFL. That means the Falcons have to beat someone, at some point. Taking a wild guess that they get their first win this week against the hobbled Texans.

Falcons 22, Texans 20

New York Jets at Buffalo: Going with another mild upset here, again basing it on the law of averages more than anything else.

Bills 20, Jets 17

Baltimore at Cleveland: The Browns had a great opportunity to build on the momentum they established in week 2, but they blew the game in Oakland last week. That was their chance.

Ravens 24, Browns 13

St. Louis at Dallas: Like I said, I'm off the Rams bandwagon, especially now that Steven Jackson is hurting.

Cowboys 30, Rams 20

Chicago at Detroit: This is a much tougher game to predict than I would have guessed before the season started. Brian Griese may add a little life to the Bears pathetic offensive attack, but what few people are talking about is the way Dallas dismantled that Chicago defense. I'll go with the Bears this week, but it's a shaky bet.

Bears 19, Lions 16

Oakland at Miami: Painful game to watch. Advise avoiding at all costs. Flip a coin and pick the Dolphins to get their first win.

Dolphins 21, Raiders 17

Green Bay at Minnesota: I'm feeling a few upset vibes this week. Look for the Vikings to suprise the super-hot Packers.

Vikings 17, Packers 14

Tampa Bay at Carolina: No one listens to me. Not my wife, not my friends, and apparantly NFL "experts" don't either. Carolina was a pre-season media darling for the second straight year without any substantial reasons as to why. This is an average team at best. I do, however, see them winning an ugly one this week.

Panthers 16, Bucs 13

Seattle at San Francisco: The 49ers could really put themselves in a great position with a victory. Not only would they move to 3-1 on the year, but they would be 3-0 in the division while dropping the Seahawks to 0-2 in the division. Look for it to happen.

49ers 23, Seahawks 20

Pittsburgh at Arizona: The Steelers can't be as good as they've looked so far, can they? Rolling with the upset specials this week....

Cardinals 24, Steelers 21

Denver at Indianapolis: Before the season began, I really though Denver might be able to go into Indy and pull this one out. But after watching the Broncos bumble and stumble for the majority of three weeks, I'm much less confident.

Colts 28, Broncos 20

Kansas City at San Diego: This is the straight-up lock of the week. Despite their win last week, Kansas City is in miserable shape. The Chargers have issues to be sure, but there is no way they drop this one.

Chargers 31, Chiefs 13

Philadelphia at New York Giants: Both teams looked sorry prior to last week. Now, they both seem much more attractive. With the Eagles secondary still reeling a bit, I'm going with the Giants and that passing game to outlast Philly.

Giants 27, Eagles 23

New England at Cincinnati: The Bengals are starting down the barrel of a 1-3 start, which could seriously hurt their chances in the competitive NFC North. This game is much less important for the 3-0 Patriots, who have yet to be challenged this year. I do think Cincy finally gives the Pats a test-- but New England will pass.

Patriots 29, Bengals 24

4 To Score

1. Arizona (+6) against the Steelers: A very high spread for a team playing at home that almost won in Baltimore last week.

2. Chargers (-11.5) against the Chiefs: Game will be over at halftime. Chargers should hold on for the cover.

3. New York Giants (+3) against the Eagles: I could see the Eagles winning a close one, which means a push may be your worst case scenerio.

4. Buffalo (+3.5) against the Jets: Another home dog, that is due. Yeah, I know, "never bet the due."

Morons Abound In Gundy-Carlson Situation

Daily Oklahoman sportswriter Jenni Carlson is a moron.

Daily Oklahoman sports editor Mike Sherman is a moron.

Oklahoma State head football coach Mike Gundy is a moron.

The journalists supporting Carlson and Sherman are morons.

The fans supporting Gundy are morons.

That is basically all you need to know when attempting how best to “analyze” what went down at OSU’s post-game press conference after their victory over Texas Tech last Saturday.

Gundy is all over You Tube.

Carlson was on Good Morning America.

And once again, just like the folks they find to interview after the tornado hits, Oklahomans look ridiculous. Thank you very much, Jenni, Mike, and Mike.

For those of you living in caves, Gundy unleashed a raging tirade directed at Carlson and the Oklahoman in response to an article that appeared in the paper Saturday morning.

Rather than rehash the facts, I’ll just provide the links. The first is to the article, the second, the tirade.

http://newsok.com/article/3131543

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aoMmbUmKN0E

First, let’s start with the article. The “chicken” reference is an incredibly amateurish low blow. Plus, she doesn’t even elaborate on how his Mom was feeding him. Was she handing it to him? Tossing it in the air to see if he could catch it in his mouth? Making helicopter noises and bringing it in for a landing? Either way, her attempt at establishing himself as a sissy or a “Momma’s Boy” fell totally flat. It was somewhat cruel, and perhaps bordering on leaning heavily on a racial stereotype.

It’s amazing she wrote it, and more amazing that Sherman allowed it to be printed.

Next, Carlson blurs the line between reporting and editorializing. She references “rumors,” but provides little, if any, hard evidence to support her “opinions.”

As soon as that article hit the stands, Mike Gundy and the OSU faithful had every right to call Carlson and Sherman on the carpet. They had every right to challenge their claims and defend their player. But instead of taking a rational, logical, intelligent approach to the situation, Gundy lost his mind. He blew up. He went on a verbal rampage that was dripping with what has become typical Oklahoma State Aggie inferiority complex.

Gundy could have easily addressed the situation in a civil manner. He could certainly have voiced his displeasure and even anger without pacing back and forth like a madman, pointing fingers, hollering, and screaming about “Mothers of children.” As opposed to what Mike? By the way, did he mention something about "fat kids" in there?

He said that three-fourths of the story were false, yet he only briefly expressed which parts he was talking about—and that was hard to detect through all of the flailing and blabbering. Given another chance on Monday to specifically address the inaccuracies in the article, Gundy refused to comment.

Carlson and Sherman produced a piece of journalistic garbage. But instead of taking out the trash, Gundy ripped the lid open and flung the garbage everywhere. Now, we have a real disgusting mess on our hands.

Unless, of course, you are an Oklahoma Sooner fan. For us Sooners, this is all quite entertaining. Yes, it makes Oklahomans in general look like fools, but that slight national embarrassment is well worth it in exchange for getting to witness a complete meltdown of Aggie Nation. Listening to talk radio and reading sports message boards, I can almost feel the steam rising from the ears of OSU fans. They are a group that feels slighted and dismissed in the first place. Now, they see their coach standing up for these “injustices” and they are just in such a tizzy. The majority of these fans are supporting Gundy’s actions. Once again proving that irrational, tyrannical, monologues are the only ways to communicate or connect with an OSU fan.

I’m a tad upset with all those mentioned above for making us all look so bad in front of a national audience.

But I’d by lying if I said I wasn’t enjoying the heck out it.

Morons. All of them.

NFL Week Three Picks, Pats, and Apologies

Last Week: 11-5
Season: 24-8
Record Picking Redskins Games: 1-1
Against the Spread: 5-2-1
Lock of the Week: 2-0

Last Week’s Pats: Rode the Packers to an upset win for the second straight week. I also nailedthe Vikings-Lions game right down to the final score. But my “pat on the back” of the week goesto my Colts-Titans prediction. Many thought I was nuts to predict a close Colts victory, but I came within one point of getting that final score exactly correct as well.

Last Week’s Apologies: Got burned by the Rams for the second straight week, but the game I really didn’t see coming was Tampa Bay’s dismantling of New Orleans. The Saints look simply horrendous right now.

This Week’s Picks:

Arizona at Baltimore: Don’t be too quick to dismiss the Cardinals here. The Ravens will most likely give Matt Leinart a hard time, but Arizona’s defense is no slouch. I see a tight, low-scoring affair.

Ravens 16, Cardinals 13

San Diego at Green Bay: A brutal way to start the season for San Diego opening at home with Chicago and then two long road trips to New England and Green Bay. Frustration is already mounting for the Chargers offense and they won’t get much relief this week from a solid Green Bay defense. Having said that, I do think San Diego finds a way to win this one.

Chargers 20, Packers 17

St. Louis at Tampa Bay: I am 0-2 predicting the Rams this year (the team I picked to win the NFC West). Not only are they 0-2, but they are 0-2 at home. Now, they go on the road to face a Tampa team that throttled the Saints last week. For now, I am going to be stubborn and stick with the Rams. But if they lose this one, I am officially off the bandwagon.

Rams 21, Bucs 17

San Francisco at Pittsburgh: The 49ers defense is for real, period. That unit is getting after people, and I think the Steelers offense is in for a rude awakening this week. But I do not yet trust Alex Smith to lead his team on the road against a quality defense.

Steelers 17, 49ers 13

Detroit at Philadelphia: This is simply a “law of averages” prediction. So far, there is little evidence to think the 0-2 Eagles will beat the 2-0 Lions. But I just can’t see Detroit at 3-0, while Philly sits at 0-3. Look for a big game from Brian Westbrook.

Eagles 24, Lions 20

Miami at New York Jets: Whoever loses this one can pretty much pack it in for 2007. The Dolphins should be getting their luggage ready.

Jets 20, Dolphins 16

Buffalo at New England: Won’t be quite as ugly as many expect because I could see the Pats “playing down” to the Bills a bit this week. Still, the Bills have no chance to win this game.

Patriots 27, Bills 14

Minnesota at Kansas City: Desperation time in Kansas City. If you enjoy watching quality quarterback play, under no circumstances should you tune into this game. Flip a coin and take the home team.

Chiefs 19, Vikings 16

Indianapolis at Houston: Losing Andre Johnson is a gigantic blow for the super-hot Texans. Without Johnson, the Colts will be able to clamp down on the Texans attack and shrink the field for Matt Schaub. Houston has caught everyone’s attention—including the Colts.

Colts 30, Texans 17

Cincinnati at Seattle: The Bengals defense is coming off one of the worst performances in NFL history. Seattle is coming off a loss they almost literally “handed” to Arizona. I expect both teams to be a bit ornery this week, with Carson Palmer getting the last laugh.

Bengals 24, Seahawks 23

Cleveland at Oakland: How do you gauge the Browns after their 51 point explosion? Was it legitimate, or a freak occurrence against a leaky defense? Hard to say at this point. For now, I’ll give Derek Anderson the benefit of the doubt.

Browns 22, Raiders 20

Jacksonville at Denver: The Broncos are two plays away from being 0-2, but winning close games is a good sign—especially for Jay Cutler. It won’t be that close this week as Jacksonville’s pathetic offense will be stonewalled by the Denver defense.

Broncos 20, Jaguars 9

New York Giants at Washington: If the Giants fall to 0-3, and 0-2 in the NFC East, the current media swarm will turn into a frenzy and the Giants will melt away for 2007. This is a must-win for New York and a must-win for Washington if they expect anyone to take their 2-0 start seriously. Despite the Giants laughable defense, expect a close game.

Redskins 23, Giants 20

Carolina at Atlanta: The Falcons are just what the doctor ordered for the Panthers.

Panthers 28, Falcons 13

Dallas at Chicago: Upset of the week. I was as unimpressed with the Bears offense in week as I was in week one. Dallas certainly won’t “light up” the Bears defense like they did against the Giants and Dolphins, but Tony Romo will outplay Rex Grossman and lead the Cowboys to an ugly victory.

Cowboys 17, Bears 16

Tennessee at New Orleans: One more week New Orleans, that’s all I’m giving you.

Saints 27, Titans 20

4 To Score

1. San Francisco (-9) against the Steelers: The Steelers will probably win, but this spread is way off.
2. St. Louis (-4) against the Bucs: A bit nerve-wracking leaning so heavily on an 0-2 team, but the Rams are better than they’ve shown thus far.
3. Carolina (+4) against the Falcons: I just don’t see how Atlanta is going to score this week. 4. Arizona (-7.5) against the Ravens: Don’t trust the Ravens offense to distance themselves in any individual game.

NFL Week Two Picks, Pats, and Apologies

Last Week: 13-3

Season: 13-3

Record Picking Redskins Games: 1-0

Against the Spread: 2-1-1

Lock of the Week: 1-0

Last Week's Pats: Very good with, both with my straight up picks and my four against the spread. Highlights were calling a few upsets, headlined by Green Bay over Philly and Detroit over Oakland.

Last Week's Apologies: I misread the Rams/Panthers game. I am very surprised that the Carolina defense put the clamps on Steven Jackson and the Rams offense the way they did. Losing Orlando Pace for the year could devestate St. Louis

This Week's Picks:

Houston at Carolina: Very quietly the Texans have built a respectable defense. Expect them to keep the Panthers in check. However, after what Carolina's defense did to the Rams, I can't see the Texans putting up very many points.

Panthers 17, Texans 13

Cincinnati at Cleveland: Wow, the Browns are worse than I thought. And I thought they'd really stink. Coach Romeo has a real mess on his hands-- I wouldn't be surprised if he doesn't last the year.

Bengals 27, Browns 17

Indianapolis at Tennessee: The Colts CAN'T be as good as they looked last Thursday night. If they are, the rest of this NFL season is just window dressing for another Colts championship. I'm betting the Colts come back down to earth a bit this week, but still find a way to win.

Colts 23, Titans 20

New Orleans at Tampa Bay: The Saints CAN'T be as bad as they looked last Thursday night. If they are, the NFC is even more wide open than I thought. Look for the Saints offense to bounce back-- but they defense has major issues.

Saints 31, Bucs 24

San Francisco at St. Louis: The 49ers played poorly last Monday night and won. That is a good sign for a young team. If they take this one, not only will they be 2-0, but they will be 2-0 in their division. Look for St. Louis to squeek one out.

Rams 26, 49ers 24

Buffalo at Pittsburgh: Last Sunday was heartbreaking for the Bills in a variety of ways. Hopefully, the relatively good news regarding Kevin Everett's injury will inspire the Bills, but winning in Pittsburgh is a tall order, especially considering the week they've had.

Steelers 20, Bills 16

Green Bay at New York Giants: Tough pick considering the uncertain status of Eli Manning. But I am going out on a limb, riding my upset special from week one, and banking that the Packers pull off another upset this week. Don't sleep on Green Bay's defense-- they are the real deal.

Packers 21, Giants 17

Atlanta at Jacksonville: Easiest straight-up winner of the week. Atlanta is awful. Jacksonville is desperate after a disappointing home opener.

Jaguars 19, Falcons 12

Seattle at Arizona: Last week I said that every year, one team burns me week after week. This year, I'm betting that team is Arizona.

Cardinals 28, Seahawks 23

Dallas at Miami: Another easy pick. Dallas needs to work on their pass defense, but Miami won't be able to exploit that weakness this week. The Cowboys offense appears to be in full gear.

Cowboys 27, Dolphins 13

Minnesota at Detroit: Toughest call of the week. The Vikings looked good in week one, but they were playing a JV squad (Falcons) at home. We know Detroit is going to stuggle to keep teams from scoring on them. What we don't know, is exactly how good that offense is going to be. They did light up a pretty good defense last week. Look for another close Lions victory.

Lions 20, Vikings 17

Oakland at Denver: In week one, the Raiders snatched defeat from the hands of victory. It may have been their best opportunity all year.

Broncos 27, Raiders 10

Kansas City at Chicago: The Chiefs scored three points against the Texans last week. This week, they play the Bears--in Chicago. Be afraid Chiefs fans, be very afraid.

Bears 31, Chiefs 9

New York Jets at Baltimore: I'm betting that the Jets were an abberation last year. Did it with smoke and mirrors. Baltimore played horribly in Cincinnati last week and still had a chance at the end of that game. This one will get ugly.

Ravens 20, Jets 10

San Diego at New England: As good as it gets. The Patriots offensive display last week was astounding. I'm just not sure how anyone is going to stop them this year. Look for a shootout, with Tom Brady getting the last laugh.

Patriots 30, Chargers 27

Washington at Philadelphia: I have a funny feeling that things are just "off" in Philly right now. McNabb is still working his way back from injury, and Andy Reid can't help but be distracted by the legal troubles of his children. Having said that, the Redskins did not show enough offensively in week one for me to pick an upset.

Eagles 23, Redskins 16

4 To Score

1. Dallas (-3) against the Dolphins: As a Redskins fan, I hope I'm wrong, but Dallas is simply a far superior football team.

2. Green Bay (+2) against the Giants: Could be a great play if Eli can't go.

3. Houston (+7) against the Panthers: Don't think the Texans can win this one outright, but I do think their defense will keep them close.

4. New Orleans (-3) against the Bucs: Look for the Saints offense to put up big numbers.

NFL Week One Picks, Pats, and Apologies

Back for the third year in a row, I present my weekly PPA thread. First a quick review of the previous two seasons:

2005 Regular Season: 163-91
Playoffs: 6-5 (correctly picked Super Bowl)
Record Picking Redskins (including playoffs): 14-4

2006Regular Season: 146-110
Playoffs: 8-3 (correctly picked Super Bowl)
Record Picking Redskins: 8-8

As you can see, much like the Redskins, 2005 was much kind to me than 2006. I got off to a bad start, never got any momentum, and wound up with a disappointing record. I did have a nice run during the playoffs last year, but it was too little, too late. 2007 promises to be different. Week one is unique in that there are no "pats" or "apologies," just picks.

New Orleans at Indianapolis: I predict the Colts to struggle somewhat this season, but I think the Saints secondary is about to get lit up on national TV. New Orleans is an extremely one-sided team in terms of their offense vs. their defense. I think Brees and company will put up some points, but they won't be able to keep pace.

Colts 34, Saints 24

Philadelphia at Green Bay: Every year I see a week one game that screams "surprise" to me. This is it. Green Bay has done a very good job of replenishing their roster with talented young players-- especially along the offensive line. I also have an odd feeling that all may not be well in Philly.

Packers 27, Eagles 20

Atlanta at Minnesota: Before the Michael Vick saga, I had the Falcons pegged as a 6-10 type of team in 2007. Now? Yikes. Vikings will roll.

Vikings 26, Falcons 10

Miami at Washington: Easiest game on the Redskins schedule comes in week 1. Miami's offense is brutal and the defense is getting old. Trent Green is a shell of his former self. The Dolphins are a mess. Every team tends to "show up" week one, and I'm still not convinced the Redskins offense is capable of blowing anyone away, but I think Washington will control this game from start to finish.

Redskins 23, Dolphins 13

New England at New York Jets: Every year there seems to be one team that burns me over and over and over again. Last year, it was the Jets. I picked against them week after week and kept losing. When I finally went with them, they lose to a team like Buffalo. I see this as an extremely entertaining game, but one the Pats will win.

Patriots 24, Jets 20

Tennessee at Jacksonville: It's a good thing Jeff Fisher is still in Tennessee, because this was a disasterous off-season for them losing Adam Jones and Travis Henry, while failing to improve the team through free agency. The Titans rode on Vince Young's magic wings for some wild wins last year. In 2007, I have a feeling that magic may fizzle a bit.

Jaguars 20, Titans 13

Denver at Buffalo: I just don't like the direction in which the Bills are headed. I am not a fan of Dick Juaron, and J.P. Losman underwhelms me at best. Their defense lost some key contributors. Denver, on the other hand, seems infused by the emergence of Jay Cutler.

Broncos 21, Bills 16

Pittsburgh at Cleveland: Week one always bring fans that magic word in sports: HOPE. Browns fans better live it up this week, because after Sunday they will realize it's going to be the same ole', same ole' in Cleveland this year.

Steelers 20, Browns 10

Carolina at St. Louis: The Panthers could announce they were swapping rosters with the University of North Texas, and Carolina would still be a media darling. However, the media fails to realize that the Panthers had a pathetic offensive attack last year, and it only got older, not better.

Rams 24, Panthers 21

Kansas City at Houston: The Chiefs could very well be in the top 5 of the draft next year. Expect a major fall from grace for this surprise playoff team from 2006.

Texans 28, Chiefs 21

Tampa Bay at Seattle: I can't quite decide if I think the Seahawks have missed their window and will begin to slide, or if they are still the class of the NFC West. Either way, we won't find out much this Sunday, as Tampa doesn't have the weapons to win a tough road game at this point.

Seahawks 20, Bucs 17

Chicago at San Diego: Oh, Rex. It's all on you, my friend. The Bears defense is obviously stellar, but no one will go into San Diego and "shut down" the Chargers this year. Rex must make plays. I'll believe it when I see it.

Chargers 22, Bears 17

Detroit at Oakland: For the three of you who will be watching-- expect a close game, with the Lions winning late.

Lions 19, Raiders 17

New York Giants at Dallas: The Giants season is 100% on the shoulders of Eli Manning. Their defense isn't talented enough to win games for them and their running game won't be as reliable minus Tiki. However, the Giants do have some potential for good things if Manning can put it together on a consistent basis. I'm a doubter.

Cowboys 29, Giants 21

Baltimore at Cincinnati: Week one is probably more important to the Bengals than to any other team this year. After a disappointing season in 2006, Cincy gets a shot at the defending Central champs at home, on Monday Night. This is as close to must-win game as it can get in week one. I am picking the Bengals to win the division-- I will change that pick if they drop this one.

Bengals 16, Ravens 15

Arizona at San Francisco: A fun way to end a good slate of games in week one. I think both of these teams has a legitimate shot to win the division, but both are saddled with inexperience at almost every key position. I'm going with Arizona because I like Matt Leinert a tad more than I like Alex Smith, but this one is toss up.

Cardinals 30, 49ers 28

4 To Score

Per request, I am adding a "spread" feature to PPA this year. Each week I will pick my top 4 bets for the week and track my progress throughout the season. Week one poses an interesting challenge, in that we have no real new data from which to draw any conclusions. There are trends, or course, but I've always leaned towards the Pick Em's early in the season.

1. Minnesota (-3) against the Falcons: If I had one bet to make week one, this would be it. I imagine the uncertainty surrounding Tarvaris Jackson is holding this spread down a bit. But the Vikes defense will throttle Atlanta.

2. Detroit (+ 1.5) at the Raiders: Mildy concerned going with Detroit here because of their horrible road results over the past several years, but I think the Lions offense will be legit in 2007. I think this game will be close, but I see the Lions winning outright.

3. Washington (-3) against the Dolphins: Neither team will put up points easily, but the Redskins will be ahead by more than 3 late in this game.

4. St. Louis (-1) against the Panthers: Vegas sets odds on a game like this to make it as close to 50-50 as possible. I think they missed the goal here, as this spread leaves me with about a 60-40 confidence in the Rams.