Last Week: 9-5
Redskins: 1-0
Against the Spread: 2-2
Lock of the Week: 0-1
Season: 62-28
Redskins: 5-1
Against the Spread: 13-11
Lock of the Week: 3-3Last Week's Pats: Decent week; correctly picked the Texans to upset the Bengals, the Chiefs over the Redskins the Saints over the Giants. Narrowly missed on my Ravens over Vikings pick, but it did cover the spread.
Last Week's Pardons: I am now 0-6 picking Broncos games-- they are making me look moronic week in and week out.
This Week's Picks: San Diego at Kansas City: The Chargers are a mess-- they are looking like a classic Norv Turner-coached team, always finding ways to avoid prosperity. The Chiefs got their first win last week, but they are still far from impressive. This is an ugly game that could swing either way-- I'll stick with the Chargers.
Chargers 24, Chiefs 17 Indianapolis at St. Louis: Kind of unfair that the Colts get two bye weeks, don't you think?
Colts 35, Rams 16 Chicago at Cincinnati: This game is a Pick Em for a reason--really tough call. I figured the Bengals were due to come down to earth a bit last week, but I also think they are a solid team and legit playoff contender. But I feel the same way about the Bears--both teams coming off losses, needing wins. I'll play a hunch here.
Bears 27, Bengals 24 Green Bay at Cleveland: The Browns have been fighting hard the past few weeks, but they have talent-gaps almost everywhere. Looking for the Packers to get on a roll.
Packers 31, Browns 17Minnesota at Pittsburgh: Another game where I'm pretty torn-- I think the Vikings are the better team overall, but they are bound to lose sometime and the Steelers D may be getting it's mojo back now that Troy Polomalu has returned. I'm going to roll with the home team, but if you forced me to play the line, I think I'd take Minnesota.
Steelers 23, Vikings 20 New England at Tampa Bay: This is the third time the NFL has visited London. Two years ago, they gave them the eventual 1-15 Dolphins. This year, they trot out the 0-6 Bucs. Not exactly putting your best foot forward. The Patriots will roll.
Patriots 38, Bucs 14 San Francisco at Houston: An under-the-radar game that might be one of the best match-ups of the week. Houston is almost impossible to read; I've been riding them for three years with varying levels of success and failure. No patterns seem to apply to the Texans and they seem to play no better or worse at home as opposed to on the road. I suspect the 49ers will be ready to go after a bye week, but I'll stick to my guns with the Texans.
Texans 26, 49ers 21 New York Jets at Oakland: This looked like an easy pick three weeks ago, but the Jets looked downright miserable last week against Buffalo while the Raiders showed they still had a pulse in beating the Eagles. I still don't think Jamarcus Russell can consistently win games though.
Jets 17, Raiders 15 Buffalo at Carolina: Nice win for the Bills last week, but much like Oakland, I seriously doubt whether or not they will be able to duplicate their performance. The Panthers will have quietly re-entered the equation with a victory.
Panthers 28, Bills 21 New Orleans at Miami: This is the only spot this week where I could see a big upset. Miami has to be feeling good about themselves following back to back wins and a week off. The Saints have to be feeling good about themselves because they might be the best team in the NFL. I usually get burned when I do this, but I am purposely picking against the better team here, envisioning an unlikely outcome.
Dolphins 29, Saints 27 Atlanta at Dallas: I love the balance the Falcons possess. They can run, pass, and defend-- that's a pretty nice trio. Dallas is still dangerous, but until Tony Romo leads them to a win against a quality opponent, I'll feel pretty comfortable picking against them.
Falcons 27, Cowboys 23 Arizona at New York Giants: Not a good spot for the Cardinals here-- they get the Giants, on the road, in primetime, coming off a humiliating defeat. Look for the Giants to control this game.
Giants 31, Cardinals 21 Philadelphia at Washington: As a Redskins fan, I think I'm qualified to state this: If the Eagles fail to win on Monday Night, they should fire Andy Reid on the spot and remove Donovan McNabb from the starter's role for good. They should clean house. I'm not sure a team has ever been more set up for a loss than the Redskins are this week. First of all, even if things were rosey at Redskins park, they simply aren't a very talented football team. But add a extreme dose of turmoil and chaos to the mix and you have a sitting duck. The pressure is on Philly this week because the Redskins are more or less waving a white flag-- if the Eagles can't capture it-- heaven help them.
Eagles 27, Redskins 10 Lock of the Week
Dolphins (+6.5) vs. Saints. Even if they don't win, I like the Dolphins to cover. 2.
Falcons (+3.5) at Cowboys. I love the half-point in this one.
3.
Colts (-13) vs. Rams. Big spreads always make me nervous because of the "meaningless late score" factor, but the Colts really should cruise.
4.
Eagles (-7) at Redskins. Could get real ugly on the field-- and in the stands.
Joe's College Football PlaysYTD Record 23-15
+9.60 UNITSWeek 8 Write-Ups:315 Clemson
316 Miami -4.5
Total 44Earlier in the year we cashed a 2 Unit play on Clemson as they dominated Boston College at home while dealing with 2 rain/weather delays, and this week we look to play against these same inconsistent Tigers. This season, Clemson has defeated Middle Tennessee State, Boston College, and Wake Forest (all at home) while losing to TCU (at home), Maryland and Georgia Tech on the highway. Simply put, this squad does not like to play outside of "death valley." CJ Spiller became the Tigers' all time leading rusher last week as Clemson dominated a weak Wake Forest squad. This will be a slight step-up in class for the Tigers and Spiller as they will face a Miami team on the rise that should be able to focus on stopping Spiller and the one dimensional Clemson attack - Which should provide Randy Shannon's crew amply opportunity to get to and frustrate sophomore QB Kyle Parker. Offensive coordinator Mark Whiple and QB Jacory Harris (the 8th ranked QB in the country with over 1,500 yards, 11 td's, and a 64% completion percentage) have looked stellar this season. Miami is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games in October, 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games, and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games at Land Shark Stadium. Expect the up and down Clemson squad to be down this week and the Canes will be ready to lay the lumber.
TAKE 316
2 UNITS.
367 UCLA
368 Arizona -7.5
Total 51.5 Arizona looked real good last week running the no-huddle against Stanford with new QB Nick Foles who went 40 of 51 with 450+ yards and 3 touchies last week. This is a classic battle of 2 teams headed in different directions as UCLA has lost 3 straight both S/U and ATS and got crushed last week against Cal - While Arizona has found a QB and has won 2 of 3, with the lone loss on the road at UW when a ball bounced off a receivers foot into a UW players hands for a last second interception return. UCLA's defense had a player’s only, closed door meeting on Sunday to "figure out" what was wrong with their defense as they have given up 684 yards on the ground to Cal, Oregon, and Stanford - and 45, 24, and 24 points respectively. This meeting will not change the fact that UCLA can't stop anyone. Look for talented RB's Grigsby and Antolin and new stud QB Folk to get loose on Sunday and put the Bruins away comfortably in the desert. It is worth noting that the favorite is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings between these schools, with 'Zona 11-5 ATS in their last 16 Pac-10 tilts, and 9-3 ATS in their last 12 home games.
TAKE 368
1 UNIT. 321 Indiana
322 Northwestern -5
Total 53.5Last year in this match-up, Indiana won in come from behind fashion snapping a 5 game losing streak to Northwestern. The Wildcats have been horrible this season against the pass and are slipping below expectations losing 3 of their last 5 contests. Northwestern demonstrated that they cannot stop the pass last week as the allowed 280 yards to Michigan State. In comes a hungry and improving Hoosiers team led by QB Ben Chappel, RB Darius Willis, and WR Tandon Doss - that went for 300+ yards and 27 points against Illinois and 270+ yards and 33 points on the road in the Big House. Also note that Northwestern has 10+ players in their 2-deep hurt, including 5 starters on D which includes starting Safety Brendan Smith who hurt his hand last week against Michigan State. Indiana remains in the hunt for a bowl and will come in hungry and confident after its win against the Wildcats last season. The dawg is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 in this series, in which the S/U winner is 22-1 ATS in the last 23 games in this series. Look for the better team to cover and win outright, ride the folks from Bloomington.
TAKE 321
1 UNIT.337 Oklahoma State -9.5
338 Baylor
Total 53Was highly anticipating this game at the start of the season with the high hopes of the ‘Pokes and the up and coming Bears with Coach Art Briles and emerging superstar QB Robert Griffin. This one looked to be a great spot to grab Baylor and fire on an over. However, the reality is that Briles’ spread is without its engine with Griffin out. Back-up and former starting QB Szymensky cannot make this offense function as it is supposed to with his skill set – sort of like a round peg in a square hole – it just doesn’t work. Case in point last week the Bears lost @ Iowa State 24-10. Since Griffin’s departure the Bears are 1-2 ATS with the lone cover against Oklahoma by 1 point – a game in which the Bears were catching 27. They have put up 7 points and 10 points in their first 2 Big 12 tilts and I don’t expect them to put up much more than that this week. On the flip side Ok. State has righted the ship, even without WR Dez Bryant and this whole Deon Sanders debacle the ‘Pokes have been putting up points. They have scored 33+ in every game but the opener against Georgia, a game that they won and covered (they scored 24 points). In Ok. State’s first 2 Big 12 games they have scored 36 and 33 respectively – expect that total to be higher this week as the Cowboys roll in Waco.
TAKE 337
1 UNIT. 383 Iowa
384 Michigan State -1.5
Total 42Should be a solid game in East Lansing and ABC night game, with conditions calling for rainy weather – which will trend this game to an Under play. The stadium should be rocking as the prime time and night atmosphere will have this place loud. The Under is 8-2 in State’s last 10 home games and is 21-5-1 in Iowa’s last 27 games on the highway. I am playing the first half of this game which is lined at Michigan State -.5 (half-point). With the raucous crowd and the fact that Michigan State will be juiced and the fact that Iowa has had 2 Big 10 road games @ Wisconsin and @ Penn State. The halftime score of each of those tilts – Wisconsin 10 – Iowa 3 and Penn State 10 – Iowa 5. I expect the same effort here as Sparty will get off to a quick start and Iowa will wear them down in the 2nd half in what should be a “grind ‘em out” game in East Lansing.
TAKE 384 FIRST HALF – 1 UNIT.
