Last Week: 9-6
Redskins: 1-0
Against the Spread: 1-3
Lock of the Week: 1-0
Season: 94-50
Redskins: 8-1
Against the Spread: 21-19
Lock of the Week: 5-5Last Week's Pats: Picked a couple of outright underdog winners-- Redskins and Chiefs. Also pinned down my Lock of the Week (Patriots).
Last Week's Pardons: Missed badly on the Falcons game--Atlanta is a team I've been riding all year and it may be time to hit the eject button. Also thought Dallas would win a shootout in Green Bay-- way off on both the outcome and the style of game.
This Week's Picks: Miami at Carolina: Rolling with a gut feeling here that Miami finds a way to pull the upset-- I think Ricky Williams will fill in admirably for Ronnie Brown.
Dolphins 23, Panthers 20 Cleveland at Detroit: It just doesn't seem fair that two cities under such dire economic stress should have to suffer further, but I guess them's the breaks.
Lions 19, Browns 13Buffalo at Jacksonville: Always a tricky spot to predict how a team will react emotionally the week following a coaching change. Going with the Jags, but if you put cash down on the games, I'd stay away.
Jaguars 27, Bills 17 Pittsburgh at Kansas City: Kansas City is a good place to visit if you are in need of a bounce-back victory. Pittsburgh should have this one wrapped up by halftime.
Steelers 31, Chiefs 14 Indianapolis at Baltimore: The Colts have been flirting with their first loss for several weeks now and they've been failing to cover the spread in the process. I see Baltimore getting themselves back into the AFC playoff hunt with a big win.
Ravens 27, Colts 23Atlanta at New York Giants: All of a sudden this is a game of desperation and survival for both teams; the loser will find themselves scrambling to have any hope of making the post-season. They say "never bet the due," but I just can't see the Giants dropping five in a row.
Giants 28, Falcons 20 San Francisco at Green Bay: Packers have been a tough team to peg all season namely because their defense shows up about once every three games. They were extremely impressive in shutting down the Cowboys last week, but I'm not convinced they can carry that performance over to this week. Ultimately, the Packers will score enough to win, but tread lightly on this one.
Packers 29, 49ers 24 Seattle at Minnesota: Last week was probably the Seahawks last realistic chance to get themselves back into the race-- they looked good for three quarters in Arizona, but fell apart late. I think that loss has probably taken the wind out of their sails. I see another workmanlike win for the Vikes.
Vikings 31, Seahawks 17 Washington at Dallas: I wish I could say anything is possible in rivalry games, but this once proud rivalry has been on life support for almost two decades. George Allen once said that he'd fight Tom Landry at the 50 yard line if he had to. Jim Zorn and Wade Phillips will probably give each other a hug...after an easy Cowboy win.
Cowboys 31, Redskins 13 New Orleans at Tampa Bay: Tampa has been much better with Josh Freeman at the helm and they are playing with good energy right now. Having said that, Freeman won't be able to keep pace with Drew Brees who looks to bounce back from his first "meh" performance of the year.
Saints 34, Bucs 20 Arizona at St. Louis: Much like Tampa, the Rams look suddenly competent and the Cardinals are always at risk for dropping a clunker. But I think Kurt Warner enjoys going back to St. Louis.
Cardinals 38, Rams 21New York Jets at New England: Honestly, Rex Ryan looks like a complete jackass right now. His bravado and schtick have already grown old in New York. The Big Apple is not the place to pound your chest if you can't back it up. The Patriots roll.
Patriots 33, Jets 13Cincinnati at Oakland: If there were any doubts heading into last week (and there were), the Bengals made them all go away by winning in Pittsburgh and finishing with a season sweep of both the Steelers and Ravens. Cincinnati is sitting pretty and while I could see them slogging through this game at Oakland, they'll make sure to get it done.
Bengals 20, Raiders 13San Diego at Denver: Kyle Orton's iffy status makes a big difference here, but I'm taking the Chargers either way. The roof is caving on the Broncos.
Chargers 23, Broncos 13 Philadelphia at Chicago: Two extremely unimpressive teams right now battling for survival in the NFC playoff hunt. In this kind of match-up, I'll side with the "been there, done that" crew over an unproven and flailing Bears squad.
Eagles 27, Bears 20 Tennessee at Houston: I'll keep saying it: If any team can go from 0-6 to relevant, it's the Titans. This is a dangerous game for the Texans, partly because it's such an important one for them. Traditionally Houston has failed in games that have really mattered. I think the trend continues and the Titans pull the upset.
Titans 26, Texans 23
Lock of the Week
Steelers (-10) at Chiefs. Not sure how Kansas City is going to score. 2. Patriots (-11) vs. Jets. Pats get revenge in a big way.
3. Titans (+5) at Texans. I like Tennessee to win outright, I LOVE them to cover.
4. Cardinals/Rams OVER 46.5. Been riding the OVER in Arizona games for weeks--and it keeps hitting.
Joe's College Football PlaysYTD Record 33-27
+5.20 UNITS
Last Week: 2-3 (2.40 UNITS)
Week 12 Write-Ups:327 Rutgers -7.5
328 Syracuse
Total 44.5Rutgers is again playing its best football in the 2nd half of the season, winning and covering their last 3 games. This has all the making of a pasting as Rutgers coach Schiano will know that NY recruits will be in attendance for Syracuse and he will be looking to prove who the better program in the region is. Freshman QB Savage has been playing well of late, throwing 6 TD's and 2 picks against USF, Uconn, Army, and Pitt - and has thrown for over 1,500 yards on the season. Syracuse ranks in the bottom ten (out of 119) nationally in pass defense, giving up nearly 270 yards a game. Rutgers will be looking to cement 3rd place in the Big East and get themselves to a better bowl game. Orange QB Paulus has 14 picks on the season and should have trouble against an improving Rutgers D. Syracuse has 3 wins on the season - against Northwestern, Maine (1AA), and Akron. When stepping up in class the Orange have been dismantled losing to the likes of Pitt, Cincinnati, West Virginia, Penn State, and USF by a combined score of 161-57 - which averages out to 32-11. Rutgers is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 Big East tilts and the Scarlet Knights have covered 5 of the last 6 in this series winning the last 4 tilts by 18, 24, 31, and 22 respectively. Take the better team who will be aided by a point guard QB dishing picks to them all day in Upstate NY.
TAKE 327
2 UNITS.
315 Ohio State -11.5
316 Michigan
Total 47.5 The best rivalry in sports gets back to business this year in the "Big House" with a reeling Wolverine squad looking to put a stamp on an otherwise forgettable season with a victory against The Buckeyes that would make them bowl eligible. Ohio State comes in as the already crowned Big 10 champs with their tickets stamped to Pasadena - but no matter what this game will get the blood flowing and both teams will bring their "A" game. Ohio State needs this win to clinch the outright Big 10 title and would like nothing more than to make it 6 straight against the "team up North." While there has been talk in betting circles about an UNDER play in this game, I just don't see it. Michigan can't stop anybody and their offense will get some scores against Ohio State in a game that will feature the speed and athleticism of Forcier and Robinson, along with Pryor for the Buckeyes - it is also worth noting that Michigan RB Brandon Minor is healthy and good to go after playing against Wisconsin last week. Keep in mind the scoring of these 2 teams - Michigan has scored 24 and 36 the last 2 games, while allowing 45, 38, 38, and 35 points in their last 4 games. Ohio State has scored 27, 24, 45, and 38 in their last 4 games. The OVER is 8-2 in THE's last 10 games in November, 9-3 in Michigan's last 12 as a dawg, 7-3 in Michigan's last 10 tilts overall, AND has hit in 7 of the last 9 in this series - expect some fireworks early in Ann Arbor as the Buckeyes roll on their way to Pasadena.
TAKE 315 OVER
1 UNIT.
339 Vanderbilt
340 Tennessee -17
Total 45Last week we played on the Commodores and were beat, this week we look to play against them in Nashville against Tennessee. The Vols are in a prime position to get bowl eligible in Lane Kiffin's first season at the helm, their first bowl game since 2007. With the dismissal over with and distraction gone from the robbery by the Vols players last week, they can get back on the field this week and focus on getting to a bowl and crushing their interstate rivals. Vandy comes in averaging 13 points per game in all but 2 games this season, and only scoring 13 or less in 5 of their last 6 games. Hennessy comes in holding their opponents to less than 20 points per game and comes in energized after getting tuned up by Ole' Miss last week. Some quotes from practice this week "That's the first game for a while that they have moved the ball around on us vs. our first defense,'' Kiffin said. "I know they're excited to get back out there and prove that that's not who they are. It will be interesting Saturday night, but I know they are excited about it.'' The Vols have lost 2 times in SEC play, after both losses they have produced the following spread covering victories: Home against Georgia 45-19 S/U and ATS W - Home against South Carolina 31-13 S/U and ATS W. Expect that trend to play out this Saturday as the Vols are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 SEC tilts, 7-2 ATS in their last 9 against a team with a losing record, as well as 4-1 ATS in their last 5 after a loss. Kick back with some Hennessy and watch Tennessee drum their little interstate brothers on Saturday.
TAKE 340
1 UNIT.
373 San Diego State
374 Utah -20
Total 54.5Last week Utah was destroyed by TCU and still should be feeling the effects of that shellacking in Ft. Worth in which they were out first downed 32-11, outgained 549-284, and had their RB Eddie Wade held to 25 yards (the first time in 6 games in which he has been held under 100 yards). To make this situation even tastier for the Aztecs, the Utes have hated rival BYU on deck next week in what plays into a monster sandwich spot for us to play on HC Brady Hoke's State squad. SD's QB Lindly has been coming on of late and has led the Aztecs to scores of 27, 12, 23, 42, 28, and 34 points in MWC play - with the lone score of 12 coming against TCU, who has been dominating opponents all year. Utah lost 2 impact starters on defense last week in starting DE Shelby (who leads the team with 8 tackles for a loss) and has 44 tackles and 3 sacks on the season. The Utes also lost a starting Safety and another D-lineman (Kenape Eliapo). Some quotes from Salt Lake have the Utes calling last week's punishment "a humbling experience" and "it was disappointing, we never give up yards like that." Look for a still dazed Ute squad to sleep walk through a half or so and allow the Aztecs to keep this game comfortably within margin in what could be snowy conditions in Salt Lake.
TAKE 373
1 UNIT.
399 Army
400 North Texas -2.5
Total 51In the last 3 games UNT has been giving up almost 210 yards a game and will face an Army team that is averaging 192 ground yards per game in their last 3 - Army ranks 14th nationally in rushing offense with an average of 213.3 yards a game and seventh in time of possession at 32:47 minutes a game - not a recipe for success for the lowly Mean Green to be laying points at the end of a season in which they are 2-8 S/U, with wins against Western Kentucky and Ball State, who are 2 of the worst teams in Division 1 this year. There really are no secrets as to what Army will do - run the triple option and keep the passing attack of UNT off the field - The question is if UNT can play the kind of assignment football with players handling the fullback dive, the quarterback on the keeper and the slot back on the option pitch - which will become increasingly difficult in a game that will wear down a UNT team that is going up against a motivated opponent and has thrown in the towel on their season. Army HC Ellerson was quoted "We need to be able to get the ball on offense, and not only be productive, but be productive in a way that does make it a little bit of a shorter game - We have to play Army football.” Army has held 5 opponents under 20 points this season and should do so this weekend in Denton, playing clock control and grinding out a win against a Mean Green squad that is playing out the string.
TAKE 399
1 UNIT.
